Fraggle145
10/21/2010, 12:47 AM
Early Line: Oregon tops Boise St., OU (http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/blog?name=millman_chad&id=5706220)
E-mail Chad: [email protected]
Follow Chad on Twitter: @ChadMillman
You may have noticed that the BCS standings were released this past week and, well, shocker, there is some debate over who should be atop the rankings. And by debate I mean, Oklahoma? Really?
Most mock BCS polls heading into the real one's debut had Boise firmly entrenched at No. 1. Handicappers agreed. In fact, when I spoke with Sal Selvaggio from madduxsports.com (http://www.madduxsports.com/) for my podcast (http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-bets-chad-millman/id383711194) a few weeks ago, he said that he would take Boise State at pick against anyone in the country right now.
That same day, ESPN college football whiz Joe Schad tweeted that Boise State would be an underdog vs. Oregon (-2.5), Ohio St (-4.5) and Alabama (-6), according to the MGM Resorts Sports Book. And that prompted an idea for this blog. Not from me, of course, but from Insider's Chris Sprow. You may know the name (http://twitter.com/Sprow_ESPN) and the handsome mug from his frequent and informative hits on the ESPN-branded networks talking about rumors -- as he is our resident Rumor Central (http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/features/rumors) expert. He's also something of an idea savant. Has been that way for years -- way back when he was running a weekly rag about Chicago sports and constantly sending me e-mail pitches. They were good then, they're good now. And his idea was this: What if we did a hypothetical line for potential BCS matchups -- and other likely big-name games, as well.
"Brilliant," I said. And this is how conceits are born. Over cupcakes late at night while we are closing the magazine.
I liked the idea so much I dedicated a whole podcast (http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-bets-chad-millman/id383711194) with Bob Scucci, bookmaker at The Orleans, to it. We talked about what the lines would have been for classic matchups we wish we had seen, including 1998's two best NFL teams, the Broncos-Vikings (the Vikes were 15-1 but were upset by Atlanta in the NFC title game), the 1975 Steelers vs. 1985 Bears, undefeateds Nebraska and Penn State from 1994 (Nebraska was awarded the title), LSU-USC in 2004 (they split the AP and BCS titles), undefeated Utah vs. one-loss Florida in 2008 and, to round out the circle, undefeateds Bama-Boise last year.
For the rest of the football season at least, we are replacing our regularly scheduled System of the Week with The Early Line -- our take on what the lines should be in the games we really want to see. Scooch will give me his bookmaker's breakdown. And Sal will give me his handicapper's breakdown. To round out our game, the fine folks from AccuScore (http://accuscore.com/) will simulate the matchups and give us a final score, along with their analysis. Hopefully, we'll eventually get to really see who was right.
And if you have any games -- past or present -- you are anxious to see a line and breakdown on, shoot me an email. Clearly I need help with ideas.
This week's combatanta: University of Oregon (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2483/oregon-ducks) vs. Oklahoma University (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners) and Boise State (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/68/boise-state-broncos) vs. Oklahoma University. The opinions...
Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Scooch: Oregon minus-4.5 over Oklahoma
"Oregon is much more explosive than Oklahoma and more experienced, too. Next year was really supposed to be Oklahoma's year. The Sooners are still a little young and mistake prone, struggling with Air Force, Utah St. and Cincy. They are definitely getting better each week, but Oregon is already there."
Sal: Oregon minus-6 over Oklahoma
"The books would likely open Oregon minus-4 (he was close) and I think they would get equal action on this game. Squares taking points with the Sooners while the sharps betting on Oregon. Oklahoma is overrated and Oregon is clearly better. I had some doubts about how good Oregon would fair against top level competition but that issue was put to bed when it beat Stanford in a very impressive performance. While Oregon's D isn't as good as Boise's it's good enough to keep Oklahoma from scoring a lot of points. And the offense would slice up Oklahoma's D, just like it did to Stanford. It is miles ahead of Oklahoma defensively.
This would be another national title game blowout. Thankfully for fans of college football Oklahoma's flaws will likely be exposed in one of their upcoming games against Missouri, Texas A&M, Baylor or Oklahoma State. Then we can start breaking down a real national championship game."
Boise State vs. Oklahoma
Scooch: Boise State minus-3 over Oklahoma
"I think Boise is a better team, especially on offense. If Boise goes up right out of the gate I don't think Oklahoma has the horses to come back where as the other way around I think Boise can come back on just about anybody. And three is a probably a little high. It's probably 2.5, but I wanted to keep it at a round number. Having said that in either case I think people would bet Boise no matter what the line. Right now I can put up 44 or 48 it doesn't matter, people they are betting Boise. That is the squares and the sharps."
Sal: Boise State minus-7.5 over Oklahoma
"The books would likely open Boise -2.5 (close again) and I actually think money would pour in on Oklahoma. It is perceived as a great team when in reality at this point of the season it is barley a Top 20 team. Yes: barely a top 20 team, Sooner fans.
The Sooners have played two good games all year -- one against Florida State when the Noles QB wasn't 100 percent and one against a dreadful Iowa State team that has won one conference road game in its past 19 tries.
In its other four games Oklahoma has been outgained from a yards per play standpoint 5.3 to 6.0. The Sooners' offense is average and their defense is clearly below average. The Broncos prolific offense would likely put up about 8.5 yards per pass attempt and average close to six yards per rush against this group. The only good passing team the Sooners have played was Cincinnati, which put up 7 ypa.
Boise would shut down Demarco Murray and the Sooners run game as the Broncos have allowed 2.6 yards per rush. While that includes games against weaker competition, they also held Virginia Tech and Oregon State to 3.5 yards per rush. A step up in competition wouldn't see much drop off.
At this point in the season it would be laughable and likely one of my biggest bets of all time on the Broncos."
AccuScore report
The guys from Accuscore ran their sims 10,000 times for each of these games. Since their formula is slightly different than the BCS, one of their stat geeks, Zach, asked me to include this explanation:
"Unlike the BCS formula, AccuScore factors in all player data, which means we account for margin of victory and potentially running up the score. This creates more gaudy stats for Boise State and Oregon who have multiple blowout wins, and a more realistic stat line for Oklahoma who won what can be perceived as close games vs. Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati.
The best basis for ranking these teams would be how they played against one another. Here are our rankings: 1. Oregon, 2. Boise State, 3. Oklahoma."
All that said, here's how the results ended up.
• Oregon 30, Oklahoma 27
• Boise State 29, Oklahoma 28
Some more ESPN bullshat. This **** even calls us Oklahoma University. Moran. The guy Sal they have setting the lines would lose you a lot of money.
E-mail Chad: [email protected]
Follow Chad on Twitter: @ChadMillman
You may have noticed that the BCS standings were released this past week and, well, shocker, there is some debate over who should be atop the rankings. And by debate I mean, Oklahoma? Really?
Most mock BCS polls heading into the real one's debut had Boise firmly entrenched at No. 1. Handicappers agreed. In fact, when I spoke with Sal Selvaggio from madduxsports.com (http://www.madduxsports.com/) for my podcast (http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-bets-chad-millman/id383711194) a few weeks ago, he said that he would take Boise State at pick against anyone in the country right now.
That same day, ESPN college football whiz Joe Schad tweeted that Boise State would be an underdog vs. Oregon (-2.5), Ohio St (-4.5) and Alabama (-6), according to the MGM Resorts Sports Book. And that prompted an idea for this blog. Not from me, of course, but from Insider's Chris Sprow. You may know the name (http://twitter.com/Sprow_ESPN) and the handsome mug from his frequent and informative hits on the ESPN-branded networks talking about rumors -- as he is our resident Rumor Central (http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/features/rumors) expert. He's also something of an idea savant. Has been that way for years -- way back when he was running a weekly rag about Chicago sports and constantly sending me e-mail pitches. They were good then, they're good now. And his idea was this: What if we did a hypothetical line for potential BCS matchups -- and other likely big-name games, as well.
"Brilliant," I said. And this is how conceits are born. Over cupcakes late at night while we are closing the magazine.
I liked the idea so much I dedicated a whole podcast (http://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/behind-bets-chad-millman/id383711194) with Bob Scucci, bookmaker at The Orleans, to it. We talked about what the lines would have been for classic matchups we wish we had seen, including 1998's two best NFL teams, the Broncos-Vikings (the Vikes were 15-1 but were upset by Atlanta in the NFC title game), the 1975 Steelers vs. 1985 Bears, undefeateds Nebraska and Penn State from 1994 (Nebraska was awarded the title), LSU-USC in 2004 (they split the AP and BCS titles), undefeated Utah vs. one-loss Florida in 2008 and, to round out the circle, undefeateds Bama-Boise last year.
For the rest of the football season at least, we are replacing our regularly scheduled System of the Week with The Early Line -- our take on what the lines should be in the games we really want to see. Scooch will give me his bookmaker's breakdown. And Sal will give me his handicapper's breakdown. To round out our game, the fine folks from AccuScore (http://accuscore.com/) will simulate the matchups and give us a final score, along with their analysis. Hopefully, we'll eventually get to really see who was right.
And if you have any games -- past or present -- you are anxious to see a line and breakdown on, shoot me an email. Clearly I need help with ideas.
This week's combatanta: University of Oregon (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/2483/oregon-ducks) vs. Oklahoma University (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/201/oklahoma-sooners) and Boise State (http://espn.go.com/college-football/team/_/id/68/boise-state-broncos) vs. Oklahoma University. The opinions...
Oregon vs. Oklahoma
Scooch: Oregon minus-4.5 over Oklahoma
"Oregon is much more explosive than Oklahoma and more experienced, too. Next year was really supposed to be Oklahoma's year. The Sooners are still a little young and mistake prone, struggling with Air Force, Utah St. and Cincy. They are definitely getting better each week, but Oregon is already there."
Sal: Oregon minus-6 over Oklahoma
"The books would likely open Oregon minus-4 (he was close) and I think they would get equal action on this game. Squares taking points with the Sooners while the sharps betting on Oregon. Oklahoma is overrated and Oregon is clearly better. I had some doubts about how good Oregon would fair against top level competition but that issue was put to bed when it beat Stanford in a very impressive performance. While Oregon's D isn't as good as Boise's it's good enough to keep Oklahoma from scoring a lot of points. And the offense would slice up Oklahoma's D, just like it did to Stanford. It is miles ahead of Oklahoma defensively.
This would be another national title game blowout. Thankfully for fans of college football Oklahoma's flaws will likely be exposed in one of their upcoming games against Missouri, Texas A&M, Baylor or Oklahoma State. Then we can start breaking down a real national championship game."
Boise State vs. Oklahoma
Scooch: Boise State minus-3 over Oklahoma
"I think Boise is a better team, especially on offense. If Boise goes up right out of the gate I don't think Oklahoma has the horses to come back where as the other way around I think Boise can come back on just about anybody. And three is a probably a little high. It's probably 2.5, but I wanted to keep it at a round number. Having said that in either case I think people would bet Boise no matter what the line. Right now I can put up 44 or 48 it doesn't matter, people they are betting Boise. That is the squares and the sharps."
Sal: Boise State minus-7.5 over Oklahoma
"The books would likely open Boise -2.5 (close again) and I actually think money would pour in on Oklahoma. It is perceived as a great team when in reality at this point of the season it is barley a Top 20 team. Yes: barely a top 20 team, Sooner fans.
The Sooners have played two good games all year -- one against Florida State when the Noles QB wasn't 100 percent and one against a dreadful Iowa State team that has won one conference road game in its past 19 tries.
In its other four games Oklahoma has been outgained from a yards per play standpoint 5.3 to 6.0. The Sooners' offense is average and their defense is clearly below average. The Broncos prolific offense would likely put up about 8.5 yards per pass attempt and average close to six yards per rush against this group. The only good passing team the Sooners have played was Cincinnati, which put up 7 ypa.
Boise would shut down Demarco Murray and the Sooners run game as the Broncos have allowed 2.6 yards per rush. While that includes games against weaker competition, they also held Virginia Tech and Oregon State to 3.5 yards per rush. A step up in competition wouldn't see much drop off.
At this point in the season it would be laughable and likely one of my biggest bets of all time on the Broncos."
AccuScore report
The guys from Accuscore ran their sims 10,000 times for each of these games. Since their formula is slightly different than the BCS, one of their stat geeks, Zach, asked me to include this explanation:
"Unlike the BCS formula, AccuScore factors in all player data, which means we account for margin of victory and potentially running up the score. This creates more gaudy stats for Boise State and Oregon who have multiple blowout wins, and a more realistic stat line for Oklahoma who won what can be perceived as close games vs. Utah State, Air Force and Cincinnati.
The best basis for ranking these teams would be how they played against one another. Here are our rankings: 1. Oregon, 2. Boise State, 3. Oklahoma."
All that said, here's how the results ended up.
• Oregon 30, Oklahoma 27
• Boise State 29, Oklahoma 28
Some more ESPN bullshat. This **** even calls us Oklahoma University. Moran. The guy Sal they have setting the lines would lose you a lot of money.