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Sabanball
10/15/2010, 12:58 PM
Interesting.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm?loc=interstitialskip

One thing that struck me--with your SOS, I cannot believe a 2 loss Cal team is ranked ahead of you guys, much less FSU.
SoonerPride
10/15/2010, 01:01 PM
I think you were looking at the predictor ranks....

BCS uses Sagarin's ELO Chess rank and OU is #3.
Mississippi Sooner
10/15/2010, 01:03 PM
Yep. ELO Chess is the only one that matters to the BCS.
jumperstop
10/15/2010, 01:03 PM
Hmm...I wonder why that is. Someone who has a better knowledge of how those things work please explain this to me.
jumperstop
10/15/2010, 01:04 PM
I think you were looking at the predictor ranks....

BCS uses Sagarin's ELO Chess rank and OU is #3.

Ok, I like that better
Mississippi Sooner
10/15/2010, 01:05 PM
Point totals and margin of victory no longer matter. It's all about wins and losses, and that's all that ELO Chess takes into consideration.
NateHeupel
10/15/2010, 01:05 PM
His two ratings are, by definition, polar opposites. One doesn't consider margin of victory at all. The other considers margin of victory exclusively. As a result, neither is particularly accurate. For instance, right now, according to Sagarin's "predictor" model, FSU should be favored to beat OU in Norman.
Sabanball
10/15/2010, 01:08 PM
I think you were looking at the predictor ranks....

BCS uses Sagarin's ELO Chess rank and OU is #3.

Actually, I was looking at the rating which is a synthesis of both the ELO and Predictor numbers, if I'm correct. But yes, the ELO figure is the only one the BCS will use.
jumperstop
10/15/2010, 01:09 PM
His two ratings are, by definition, polar opposites. One doesn't consider margin of victory at all. The other considers margin of victory exclusively. As a result, neither is particularly accurate. For instance, right now, according to Sagarin's "predictor" model, FSU should be favored to beat OU in Norman.

So that is why Oregon is number one, been scoring points out the *** so thier margin of victory is the greatest...
soonercastor
10/15/2010, 01:13 PM
So that is why Oregon is number one, been scoring points out the *** so thier margin of victory is the greatest...

some of that but margin of victory has a limited effect, at a certain number it stops adding up.

On another note, his ratings suggest that FSU should be favored if they play us on a neutral field :rolleyes:
tommieharris91
10/15/2010, 01:36 PM
Interesting.

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/fbt10.htm?loc=interstitialskip

One thing that struck me--with your SOS, I cannot believe a 2 loss Cal team is ranked ahead of you guys, much less FSU.

Sagarin would probably tell you that there's still some noise involved because you can't take half of a season's worth of data and make predictions based on that. Skating by teams will change the numbers like that when margin of victory is involved.

His ELO Chess rating doesn't take margin of victory into account.
No1Better
10/15/2010, 02:03 PM
I don't remotely understand how Boise and TCU could possibly be ranked ahead of us...
tommieharris91
10/15/2010, 02:05 PM
I don't remotely understand how Boise and TCU could possibly be ranked ahead of us...

Note where Oregon State is ranked.
Mark_in_Tulsa
10/15/2010, 02:06 PM
I don't remotely understand how Boise and TCU could possibly be ranked ahead of us...

I think maybe the human rankings are factored into their computer score?
jumperstop
10/15/2010, 02:12 PM
Note where Oregon State is ranked.

Is that cause they have beaten good teams, or because the only teams they've lost to are BSU and TCU?
tommieharris91
10/15/2010, 02:18 PM
Is that cause they have beaten good teams, or because the only teams they've lost to are BSU and TCU?

They went to #11 Arizona and won and beat #29 Arizona State at home as well as losing to Boise and TCU. So it's not like Sagarin says they've beaten only bad teams.
tommieharris91
10/15/2010, 02:19 PM
I think maybe the human rankings are factored into their computer score?

Not one bit.
Mark_in_Tulsa
10/15/2010, 02:43 PM
Not one bit.

This says otherwise for their pre-bcs official rankings.

http://www.bcsknowhow.com/better-know-a-bcs-computer-jeff-sagarin-ratings

They use some kind of preseason ranking system from a poll.
cccasooner2
10/15/2010, 02:50 PM
ELO chess ratings don't really become meaningful for a player until a sample size of 20 is obtained (more than the 13-14 games a team plays in a season). See wiki for details. Any "ratings", human or otherwise are b******t IMHO, no matter what team I would like to see on top. :pop:
Widescreen
10/15/2010, 02:57 PM
Hmm...I wonder why that is. Someone who has a better knowledge of how those things work please explain this to me.

A legitament concern, for sure.
tommieharris91
10/15/2010, 03:23 PM
This says otherwise for their pre-bcs official rankings.

http://www.bcsknowhow.com/better-know-a-bcs-computer-jeff-sagarin-ratings

They use some kind of preseason ranking system from a poll.

This doesn't mean, or even say, that human polling factors into Sagarin's ratings.