Ohio State outside looking in...

[Soonermagik]

If OU, Boise State, Alabama and Ohio State all go undefeated.. Ohio State will be on the outside looking in. They don't have a conference championship and that would be the nail in their coffin.

Imagine if OU plays an undefeated or 1 loss Nebraska team who would be ranked in the top 10. That vaults OU over Ohio State or Boise. If OU wins out they control their destiny.. it's that simple.

[sooneron]

Disagree, as they still have quality opponents... and this couldn't be put in JLew's thread.

[Soonermagik]

Umm.. college football is what have you done for me lately. If Ohio State is idle and OU plays a top 10 team then Ohio State EASILY gets jumped.

Sorry, I didn't see JLEW's thread. I just heard some guy on the radio talking about it and I thought it was a dumb argument. OU controls their own destiny. Imagine if OU plays a Nebraska team that is ranked 2 or 3 and OU is ranked 4.. if they win where do you think OU will be ranked? While Ohio State is out of the mind of the voters and computers.

[yermom]

if they beat Michigan at the end of the year, they'd be fine

[Sooner in Tampa]

There is way too much football to be played for us to being worrying about that crap right now.

[Mississippi Sooner]

I'm taking a very 2000 approach to this year. I'd love to see us run the table and play for the crystal ball, but if we just win the games we're supposed to win and make a better bowl than last year, I'll be happy.

On the other hand, I guess at this point we're really supposed to win all the games. At least, until the conference championship.

[sooner59]

Just win baby!

[tfoolry]

Iowa will beat Ohio State in Iowa City on 11/20.

[sooner59]

Iowa will beat Ohio State in Iowa City on 11/20.

I wouldn't doubt it. Big Ten teams normally loses their last road hurdle for some reason.

See Penn State from a few years ago @ Iowa City.

[sooneron]

if they beat Michigan at the end of the year, they'd be fine

^This

[SoonerAtKU]

Michigan hasn't lost yet and has the leading Heisman candidate at QB. Ohio State beating that team will be the biggest deal in ESPN's world outside of the SEC championship game. This is the year that a Big XII undefeated team gets left out and complains, unfortunately. The league as a whole looks that much worse if Texas is bad/mediocre.

[oudavid1]

Disagree, as they still have quality opponents... and this couldn't be put in JLew's thread.


Umm.. college football is what have you done for me lately. If Ohio State is idle and OU plays a top 10 team then Ohio State EASILY gets jumped.

Sorry, I didn't see JLEW's thread. I just heard some guy on the radio talking about it and I thought it was a dumb argument. OU controls their own destiny. Imagine if OU plays a Nebraska team that is ranked 2 or 3 and OU is ranked 4.. if they win where do you think OU will be ranked? While Ohio State is out of the mind of the voters and computers.


if they beat Michigan at the end of the year, they'd be fine


Michigan hasn't lost yet and has the leading Heisman candidate at QB. Ohio State beating that team will be the biggest deal in ESPN's world outside of the SEC championship game. This is the year that a Big XII undefeated team gets left out and complains, unfortunately. The league as a whole looks that much worse if Texas is bad/mediocre.

WE LOST IN 2008 AND STILL MADE IT IN EASY

Why do you guys think Texas through such a huge fit in 08.

OUr conference championship will volt us over anyone else who dosnt have one. I promise.

[Fraggle145]

if they beat Michigan at the end of the year, they'd be fine

Depends on what happens with MSU. Meatchicken isnt the only team in Michigan that can mess up tOSUs run...

[SoonerAtKU]

We lost in 2008 and made it because there were no big-time undefeated teams, remember? This year there could be as many as SIX. OU/Nebraska (tbd in the Big XII championship), SEC champ (probably Alabama), OSU/Michigan, Boise St. TCU, Oregon/Arizona.

Odds are, they won't all make it that far without a loss, but they all have that opportunity. Not to mention the fact that 2008 was an unequaled year for the teams in the Big XII South. 4 legitimate top-10 teams at the end of the year, all vying for a spot in the BCS. That strength was what put OU into the game that year, and it's not there this year.

[olevetonahill]

WE LOST IN 2008 AND STILL MADE IT IN EASY

Why do you guys think Texas through such a huge fit in 08.

OUr conference championship will volt us over anyone else who dosnt have one. I promise.

That would be a SHOCKER

:D :P

[achiro]

We've still got a lot of football to play before that. There is a game in Stillwater that has me pretty concerned.

[BoulderSooner79]

WE LOST IN 2008 AND STILL MADE IT IN EASY

Why do you guys think Texas through such a huge fit in 08.

OUr conference championship will volt us over anyone else who dosnt have one. I promise.


That would be a SHOCKER

:D :P

Currently, I don't see it playing out this way.

[Soonermagik]

We've still got a lot of football to play before that. There is a game in Stoolwater that has me pretty concerned.

FIXED!!

[sooneron]

That would be a SHOCKER

:D :P

OMG !! olepwned with teh spellin' smack!! :D

And David, wtf are you doing promising? If tosu finishes undefeated, they get to go get their asses whupped by bama.

The former big 12 is down. We have looked average, osu barely beat troy, nebraska has barely beaten anyone, and UTerus lost at home to friggin ucla. No one in the media is sold on us or the bugeaters and rightfully so.

[olevetonahill]

Currently, I don't see it playing out this way.

Is that Directly Currently? Or Alternately Currently?:D

[sooneron]

ALways remember kids, W=V/Amps.

[btb916]

In 2008 we also scored 60+ points in, what, five straight games? Our offense was pretty unreal for that stretch. We won't have those kind of style points this year, so if tOSU & Bama win out...Bama gets its second straight against tOSU.

[TahoeSOONER]

I don't know if anyone watched Ohio St. play this weekend put they couldn't throw the ball on the fighting Illini. The Buckeyes will drop a game but were just as capable of dropping a game along the way, just so much ball left to be played.

[Fraggle145]

This year there could be as many as SIX.

No. The most there has been in recent history was 4 if I am remembering correctly. Who went in 2004?

Ask Auburn they will tell you.

Most of the time there isnt more than 2.

[Scott D]

Michigan loses at least 2 conference games this year and potentially as many as 5.

[76soonergrad]

I don't know if anyone watched Ohio St. play this weekend put they couldn't throw the ball on the fighting Illini. The Buckeyes will drop a game but were just as capable of dropping a game along the way, just so much ball left to be played.

I think they could lose to Wisconsin at Wisconsin. The other thing is, Florida State vs. Miami this weekend. If Florida State wins, we could jump them on a bye week. If Miami wins, easier for tOSU.

[oudavid1]

If OU wins out, 12-0. We will be in the Big 12 title. If we win there. We will be in Glendale on Jan 10.

[HolaKyle]

I would love to face Nebraska in the Big XII championship. It would be a great final battle.

[oudavid1]

I would love to face Nebraska in the Big XII championship. It would be a great final battle.

yep yep yep

[OU_Sooners75]

Ohio State has a ranked Iowa, Penn St, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and what appears to be a re-emerging Michigan team left to play.

The beef of our schedule is gone, even though we do have to play at Okie Lite, Missouri, Baylor, and A&M.

We do have a very challenging schedule left to play, but only one of those teams is ranked (OSU). Ohio State holds the cards. If they win out, they are going, not OU. Boise State is SOL. If there are 2 or even three undefeated BCS-AQ teams, Boise State will be the last of the bunch.

With that BS said, I think Ohio State drops at least one game. Boise State will most likely not go undefeated. I see Nevada beating them.

Even if Boise goes undefeated, the computers will make sure they are not in the title game.

OU just needs to win out...that is all they can do. We have seen undefeated teams left out before, so I would not at all be surprised if OU if left out is undefeated. But we have a long way to go, and I cannot stand the offseason so I do not even want to think about the season winding down already!

BOOMER!

[sooner59]

Ohio State has a ranked Iowa, Penn St, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and what appears to be a re-emerging Michigan team left to play.

The beef of our schedule is gone, even though we do have to play at Okie Lite, Missouri, Baylor, and A&M.

We do have a very challenging schedule left to play, but only one of those teams is ranked (OSU). Ohio State holds the cards. If they win out, they are going, not OU. Boise State is SOL. If there are 2 or even three undefeated BCS-AQ teams, Boise State will be the last of the bunch.

With that BS said, I think Ohio State drops at least one game. Boise State will most likely not go undefeated. I see Nevada beating them.

Even if Boise goes undefeated, the computers will make sure they are not in the title game.

OU just needs to win out...that is all they can do. We have seen undefeated teams left out before, so I would not at all be surprised if OU if left out is undefeated. But we have a long way to go, and I cannot stand the offseason so I do not even want to think about the season winding down already!

BOOMER!

Iowa and Mich. St. are decent. Michigan will lose a few games. I see Wisconsin and Penn St. dropping from the polls before long. Neither are that impressive.

[MI Sooner]

Iowa and Mich. St. are decent. Michigan will lose a few games. I see Wisconsin and Penn St. dropping from the polls before long. Neither are that impressive.

Ohio St. doesn't play Michigan St.

OSU's best wins are likely:

@Iowa
@Wisconsin
vs. Miami
vs. Penn St.
vs. Michigan

I Mich wins @PSU, flip those. Also, Miami could end up being a better win than @Wisc. I may be conditioned to overestimate the difficulty of winning on the road from years of watching OU.

Our best wins:

Big XII Championship (hopefully/probably Nebraska)
@Mizzou/@OSU/@aTm
FSU
vs. Tex (neutral)
vs. USAFA

I think that USAFA will be better than Michigan by year-end. That gives us 7 good wins to their 5.

[Soonermagik]

Ohio State has a ranked Iowa, Penn St, Michigan State, Wisconsin, and what appears to be a re-emerging Michigan team left to play.

The beef of our schedule is gone, even though we do have to play at Okie Lite, Missouri, Baylor, and A&M.

We do have a very challenging schedule left to play, but only one of those teams is ranked (OSU).



Not true. Missouri is ranked 24 in one poll. Nebraska is 6 or 7 depending on which poll you look at. Add to that OSU is ranking 22.

Also, Air Force and Florida State are both in the top 25, which helps OU's strength of schedule even more. OU controls their own destiny.

[DenverSooner751]

I would love to face Nebraska in the Big XII championship. It would be a great final battle.

I agree!

I do think we have a very good chance at winning out, but I also look at the Big 10 and Pac 10 and as a conference they both look more complete than the big 12 so it would take some serious upsets along the way for us to get in to the BCS title game assuming we take care of business in the CCG.

I would say the only teams we "leap" at the end of the year if it comes down to us as an undefeated Big 12 champ and somebody else being undefeated is going to be BSU or TCU. I do not seeing us jumping anyone else though should they come out unscathed.

As somebody mentioned a little bit ago.......there is WAAAAAAAAAY too much football to play still to be worrying about this shiz. We still have a few tough games in front of us. College Station isn't a walk in the park, and don't look know but Nick Nolte's (Dan Hawkins) team up in Boulder has put together a semi respectable start (even though they've looked like garbage doing it.) And we have them for the final time on Halloween weekend in Norman. We should win that game, but I'm not counting any of these games as a give me yet.

[DenverSooner751]

Not true. Missouri is ranked 24 in one poll. Nebraska is 6 or 7 depending on which poll you look at. Add to that OSU is ranking 22.

Also, Air Force and Florida State are both in the top 25, which helps OU's strength of schedule even more. OU controls their own destiny.

We control our own destiny so long as no more of these opponents fall out of the Top 25. If Air Force and FSU drop off and get obliterated down the stretch then our OOC schedule starts to hurt us at the end.

[OU_Sooners75]

WE LOST IN 2008 AND STILL MADE IT IN EASY

Why do you guys think Texas through such a huge fit in 08.

OUr conference championship will volt us over anyone else who dosnt have one. I promise.

Is that why ou got left out in 2007 after we beat then no. 1 Missouri in the big 12 championship game yet a one loss ohio state team went over us? If ou is no 3 at the end and beats nebraska doesn't mean we will be inthe title game

[OU_Sooners75]

Not true. Missouri is ranked 24 in one poll. Nebraska is 6 or 7 depending on which poll you look at. Add to that OSU is ranking 22.

Also, Air Force and Florida State are both in the top 25, which helps OU's strength of schedule even more. OU controls their own destiny.

SOS means nothing. If 2/3 of the bcs votes for Ohio state over ou, then u canalmostbet with Osu schedule they will be at the top in the computer poll as well. Ou has to leap osu in at least one human poll as well to make it a lock.

[PLaw]

Below, is an interesting read from the Bleacher Report. I can't imagine how an undefeated team with potentially the No. 2 strength of schedule could be left out of the big dance. Here's the link to the article that has the SOS rundown: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/481428-bcs-leaders-are-emerging-a-week-five-roll-call

My personal opinion is that I don't think Boise could be left out come January with a record of 27-0 over the past two years.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
BCS Leaders Are Emerging: A Week 5 Roll Call
By Barking Carnival (Featured Columnist) on October 4, 2010

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images For College Football Fans


Bama solidly thumped Florida to assert its control over the SEC, and barring a letdown (which is always possible), seems destined to head to Glendale.

Oregon defeated Stanford in a game of Pac 10 pinball, but the Ducks are putting together quite an impressive season thus far.

Oklahoma and Ohio State posted ugly wins to stay highly relevant in the national title discussion.


Taking Inventory of the Unbeaten

This is simple enough, but a useful exercise as we step back and look at the big picture.

Taking stock of the unbeaten, we note there are 18 undefeated teams remaining in the FBS, broken out as follows:

Five in the Big 12 (KSU, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State),

Four in the Big 10 (Michigan, MSU, Ohio State and Northwestern),

Three in the SEC (Alabama, Auburn, and LSU)

Two in the MWC (TCU and Utah),

Two in the Pac 10 (Arizona and Oregon),

Two in the WAC (Boise State and Nevada)



Where Do We Stand?

The picture is really starting to coalesce. The SEC champion appears to have a stranglehold on one of the NC title game berths, with Ohio State sitting squarely at No. 2…. for now….

If the Buckeyes win out, conventional wisdom would say we are heading for a Alabama/Ohio State matchup, but I continue to be intrigued by the Big XII as a possible spoiler to the matchup. And it will have a lot to do with the computers.

Make no mistake, if the Tide, Buckeyes, Huskers (or Sooners) and Ducks all win out, the coaches (and eventual Harris) pollsters will be likely to keep Ohio State entrenched at the No.2 spot just behind Alabama.

Currently, Ohio State has an impressive 77-point lead over No. 3 Oregon in the coaches poll.

But the computers are far more likely to prefer the potential Big XII champion over Ohio State, given the Big XII’s solid positioning when compared to the rest of the conferences.



Will Boise/TCU influence the NC after all?

I’ve been on the record for weeks saying that neither the Broncos nor the Frogs have much of a chance to appear in the NC game barring losses piling up among all the other major contenders, and I reiterate that opinion today.

However, they may have a major influence in the final BCS poll by potentially serving as “wedges” between Ohio State and other teams that are attempting to leapfrog the Buckeyes.

For example, if Oklahoma/Nebraska were to try and strong-arm Ohio State out of the title game by using their much stronger computer rankings, Ohio State could be protected if Oklahoma/Nebraska remained behind Boise and/or TCU in the human polls.


So in a highly simplified example, if Nebraska ranked a solid #1 in the computers (to Ohio State’s #3/#4/etc.), but then they ranked #5 in the human polls (behind Bama, tOSU, BSU and TCU), the threat to Ohio State would be greatly diffused.

But if Nebraska (or Oklahoma) were ultimately able to leapfrog the Broncos and Frogs in the human polls based on running the table in a stronger conference, Ohio State fans could have much more to worry about.

I will say this. The precedent thus far is not encouraging for non-AQ conference teams preserving their rankings. Look no further than Oregon, which just jumped ahead of Boise for the #3 spot in the coaches poll after beating Stanford. What have you done for us lately, Boise? Huh? Huh?

Being realistic here, what exactly do we expect will result in Boise (or TCU) regaining the edge over Oregon? An impressive Boise win over San Jose State? A TCU throttling of BYU? This is the case in point of the glass ceiling that the non-FBS teams face.

This is why they will not contend for the NC unless there is 2007-type chaos. Yes, we can pump them up to start the year and talk about those great wins over VT and Oregon State, but the when push comes to shove, the voters (and computers) are far too willing to demote them when compared to other teams from power conferences.

Which is why Ohio State fans should still be concerned. They want Boise and TCU to be loved. They do not want Oklahoma or Nebraska to join the Ducks in jumping them.


Those 2009 Bowl Games Were Pretty Important After All

Just think about how important TCU/Boise and Ohio State/Oregon meeting in the Fiesta and Rose Bowls, respectively may be on influencing the 2010 title race.

With the former, Boise will never be jumped by TCU in any weekly poll, as the teams settled it on a neutral field about eight months ago with largely the same personnel on each roster.

Yes, technically, we are supposed to treat each season separately and discretely, but in the final ballot, if both teams are 12-0, are voters supposed to completely ignore what happened in the prior year’s bowl game, in a head-to-head matchup?

The same now holds true with the Ducks and Buckeyes. As Oregon makes a powerful case for national title contention, we must acknowledge that Ohio State solidly defeated Oregon in Pasadena last season.

It’s so wrong, isn’t it? We should not care at all what happened last year.

In most normal sports, where a rational playoff/seeding process is compiled based on hard facts and indisputable tie-breakers, we would never dream of looking back last year.

But in the beauty contest that is the BCS, prior seasons’ games may make a lasting impression. Again, I ask you: if the Ducks and Buckeyes both win out, and when you consider they both play schedules that are almost identical in strength, who are the voters going to pick to go to Glendale?

You know that Terrell Pryor’s dismantling of the Ducks will be very much in their minds as they cast that final ballot.



The Bottom Line

Bama is all set to go to the NC if they win out, and it doesn’t matter how they do it. Do not rule out a one-loss Florida if they can run the table and get revenge in Atlanta during the potential rematch.

Yes, if Auburn or LSU can stun the world and win the SEC, they too will be in prime position to go to the national championship.

Ohio State’s No. 2 status seems secure for now, as I think the Big XII’s strength in the numbers is not mirrored among the voters.

The perception of the league is hurting, with Oklahoma struggling in many of their games against soft competition, and with Texas’ implosion hurting the “quality” of OU’s victory (and Nebraska’s potential victory).

Top-to-bottom, while five teams are undefeated in the league, few really give a lot of respect to Missouri, KSU and Oklahoma State.

Ohio State fans should still be most worried about the Big XII contenders, and rooting for Nebraska and OU to lose. Boise, TCU and Oregon do not threaten the Buckeyes.

Oregon needs the Buckeyes and the Big XII to sustain losses. If both of those events happen, they are in great shape to go to the national championship.

TCU and Boise are on the outside looking in, unless the other league leaders lose a game down the stretch.

_____________________

[DenverSooner751]

PLaw that's a good read, thank you for posting it.

It didn't hit me until reading that.....but just under half of the conference is undefeated.......interesting.

[sooneron]

Just think about how important TCU/Boise and Ohio State/Oregon meeting in the Fiesta and Rose Bowls, respectively may be on influencing the 2010 title race.

With the former, Boise will never be jumped by TCU in any weekly poll, as the teams settled it on a neutral field about eight months ago with largely the same personnel on each roster.

Yes, technically, we are supposed to treat each season separately and discretely, but in the final ballot, if both teams are 12-0, are voters supposed to completely ignore what happened in the prior year’s bowl game, in a head-to-head matchup?

The same now holds true with the Ducks and Buckeyes. As Oregon makes a powerful case for national title contention, we must acknowledge that Ohio State solidly defeated Oregon in Pasadena last season.

It’s so wrong, isn’t it? We should not care at all what happened last year.

In most normal sports, where a rational playoff/seeding process is compiled based on hard facts and indisputable tie-breakers, we would never dream of looking back last year.

But in the beauty contest that is the BCS, prior seasons’ games may make a lasting impression. Again, I ask you: if the Ducks and Buckeyes both win out, and when you consider they both play schedules that are almost identical in strength, who are the voters going to pick to go to Glendale?

You know that Terrell Pryor’s dismantling of the Ducks will be very much in their minds as they cast that final ballot.

I strongly disagree with this part. Maybe I'm giving the voters too much cred, but this Oregon team is lot different from last year's. I would be willing to bet that voters would look more at how the conferences fared against other conferences THIS YEAR, rather than last year's bowl games.
And the Fiesta bowl was one big bowl of fugly with Boyzee making a couple of plays. Anyone that watched, knows this. They probably will look at how USU does against BS as a measuring stick for us, if we were to keep winning.

[LRoss]

This happens every year.

After week 4/5, it's clear that there are going to be 8 undefeated's and the BCS will be a mess, 6 teams will get screwed!

After week 7/8, there are 3 undefeateds and it's obvious that one team will get REALLY screwed!

By the time the season and CCG's are done, it's chaos and craziness to determine which 1-loss team gets in.

I know, I know, once or twice it hasn't quite worked out this way, but at least once we've ended up with a 2 loss team, am I wrong?

Bottom line -- the best teams don't always win. Upsets will happen. To look at a team's schedule and say they'll beat everybody else they play is like betting on a 70/30 proposition 10 times and expecting to win every one. It seems so probable, but it just isn't going to happen.

[Scott D]

Boise gets left out in any scenario that has any undefeated BCS conference team not in the SEC, especially if there are two or more.

[sooner59]

2010 MNC: Kansas State VS Michigan State. Book it.

[olevetonahill]

2010 MNC: Kansas State VS Michigan State. Book it.

Dusty, WTF are you smokin ?
I want some :D

[Scott D]

vet, I don't think what Dusty's smokin' is even available from the finest of Afghan stocks.

[olevetonahill]

vet, I don't think what Dusty's smokin' is even available from the finest of Afghan stocks.

Dayum, It sounded like some good **** man

[Mike@DW]

I agree with most of PLaw's thoughts.

There is certainly a lot of football left to play and I am sure at least one loss will occur with the top teams that nobody seems coming. But these types of discussions is one reason the BCS system is great, gives us something to talk about.

One thing I will add, the way things are look now, OU simply winning out is not enough. We have to get OSU (last game) and Nebraska (CCG) ranked high and with no more than one loss each for those wins to catapult us to a #1 or #2 spot. If Ohio State or Oregon go unbeaten and we beat, what turns our to be, a average OSU and Nebraska I don't think it will be enough. We really need OSU to be in the top 15 and Nebraska to be in the top 10 when we beat them.