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8/22/2010, 09:01 PM
OU Insider: Ranking the games from toughest to easiest
The Oklahoman's Jake Trotter breaks down each game on the schedule from hardest to easiest with percentage chances for victory in each game.
By Jake Trotter Oklahoman Comment on this article 1
Published: August 22, 2010
NORMAN — Oklahoma enters the 2010 season with national championship expectations.
OU's game against coach Mack Brown, right, and Texas will once again the Sooners' toughest. PHOTO BY NATE BILLINGS, THE OKLAHOMAN
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OU Insider: Ranking the games from toughest to easiest
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Chances for undefeated season small
Even though OU will be favored in at least of 11 of 12 games, the odds of an undefeated regular season are small.
Based on the “chances of victory” I gave for each game (ranging from 49 percent against Texas to 99.9 percent against Utah State), the law of probability calculates OU's odds of going undefeated at about 4.5 percent.
The probability the Sooners finish either 12-0 or 11-1 is roughly 10.5 percent.
OU's 2010 football schedule
Sept. 4: Utah State
Sept. 11: Florida State
Sept. 18: Air Force
Sept. 25: at Cincinnati
Oct. 2: Texas
Oct 16: Iowa State
Oct. 23: at Missouri
Oct. 30: Colorado
Nov. 6: at Texas A&M
Nov. 13: Texas Tech
Nov. 20: at Baylor
Nov. 27: at Oklahoma State
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But getting there won't be easy.
The slate features nine teams coming off bowl appearances. Two of those teams played in BCS bowl games.
Still, OU figures to be favored in every game, with the possible exception of Texas.
Ranking OU's schedule from toughest to easiest, and the chances for victory in each game.
1. Oct 2: Texas
The Longhorns have some question marks offensively, but the defense, featuring the top secondary in the nation, should be stout again. Texas also has the momentum, winning four of five. Still, like it is in most years, this game is almost a flip of a coin.
Chance of victory: 49 percent
2. Sept. 25: at Cincinnati
The Bearcats lost coach Brian Kelly and QB Tony Pike, but OU better not take UC lightly. Zach Collaros started four games last season while Pike recovered from a broken forearm, and was so good he started a public debate over which QB should start when Pike returned. The Bearcats have also won 21 of their last 23 games at home, and while this game will be played at Paul Brown Stadium, that still lies within the Cincinnati limits.
Chance of victory: 60 percent
3. Nov. 6: at Texas A&M
The Aggies will have an explosive offense, spearheaded by QB Jerrod Johnson, an experienced receiving rotation and a pair of playmaking running backs. When the Aggies are respectable, it's no cakewalk playing in College Station, where Texas A&M averaged a 40 points a game last year. Still, in the event of a shoot-out, OU's defense has a track record of coming up with key stops. Home or away, Texas A&M's does not.
Chance of victory: 65 percent
4. Nov. 27: at Oklahoma State
OU catches the Pokes at the worst possible time, as the Cowboys will have plenty of experience running new coordinator Dana Holgorsen's offense by this point in the season. OSU might be rebuilding with a new QB, a new offense and several new starters on defense; but no matter the coaches or players, Bedlam has become a dogfight in Stillwater the last 15 years.
Chance of victory: 70 percent
5. Oct. 23: at Missouri
The Tigers were one fourth-quarter meltdown against Nebraska away from winning the Big 12 North last year. QB Blaine Gabbert is healthy, so Mizzou will be capable of putting up points. But the Tigers play OU in between road games at Texas A&M and Nebraska, meaning Mizzou won't be able to zero in OU no matter how many times the Sooners thumped them in the Big 12 title game.
Chance of victory: 70 percent
6. Sept. 11: Florida State
The last time an ACC opponent came to Oklahoma, the Sooners slaughtered them, 52-9. But there's reason to believe the Seminoles will better than the squad Miami brought to Norman in 2007. QB Christian Ponder has gotten some pub for the Heisman, and he'll have a veteran offensive line protecting him. But whether the Seminoles threaten to win the ACC, or break OU's 30-game home-winning streak, depends heavily on how quickly coordinator Mark Stoops can turn around a defense that's been anemic. Best guess, it'll take more than just a couple of games to do that.
Chance of victory: 75 percent
7. Nov. 20: at Baylor
OU is 19-0 all-time against the Bears. But with QB Robert Griffin back in the saddle, a bowl berth may be on the line for Baylor when OU travels to Waco for the Bears' regular-season finale. That could be a dangerous scenario for the Sooners, who could find themselves caught looking ahead to Bedlam the following week.
Chance of victory: 80 percent
8. Nov. 13: Texas Tech
Mike Leach, the only coach other than Mack Brown to beat Bob Stoops three times, is gone. But the cupboard is completely bare for new coach Tommy Tuberville with seven returning starters offensively. But like most other offenses, Tech's has been shut down in Norman over the years, and a new coach or system won't be enough to change that.
Chance of victory: 90 percent
9. Sept. 18: Air Force
The Academy has been no pushover lately. Thanks to a stingy defense and its unique style of option offense, Air Force won eight games last year, and came close to toppling both TCU and Utah. But in three years under coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force is 0-9 when giving up at least 29 points. Only three times in the Bob Stoops era has OU failed to score that many at home against a nonconference opponent.
Chance of victory: 95 percent
10. Oct. 30: Colorado
The worst team in the Big 12 could be Colorado. But the surprise team in the league could be Colorado, too. On paper, there's no reason it shouldn't be the latter. The Buffs bring back their QB in Tyler Hansen, a decent running back in Rodney Stewart, an All-Big 12-caliber WR in Scotty McKnight, all five starters on the offensive line and seven starters defensively. Still, Colorado has shown nothing on the field to indicate this program is ready to turn a corner.
Chance of victory: 96 percent
11. Oct 16: Iowa State
The Cyclones are better than most are giving them credit for. But with arguably the nation's toughest overall schedule, they'll likely be beat up by the time they visit Norman. Iowa State played OU tough the last time the two teams met in 2007. And in beating Nebraska in Lincoln last year, the Cyclones proved they're capable of pulling an upset. But chances are, it's not here.
Chance of victory: 97 percent
12. Sept. 4 Utah State
This Aggie team is much better than the one blasted 54-3 by OU in 2007. Still, nowhere good enough to keep this one competitive.
Chance of victory: 99.9 percent
Read more: http://newsok.com/ou-insider-ranking-the-games-from-toughest-to-easiest/article/3487744?custom_click=lead_story_title#ixzz0xOG1PNx 5
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The Oklahoman's Jake Trotter breaks down each game on the schedule from hardest to easiest with percentage chances for victory in each game.
By Jake Trotter Oklahoman Comment on this article 1
Published: August 22, 2010
NORMAN — Oklahoma enters the 2010 season with national championship expectations.
OU's game against coach Mack Brown, right, and Texas will once again the Sooners' toughest. PHOTO BY NATE BILLINGS, THE OKLAHOMAN
Multimedia
Photoview all photos
OU Insider: Ranking the games from toughest to easiest
More Info
Chances for undefeated season small
Even though OU will be favored in at least of 11 of 12 games, the odds of an undefeated regular season are small.
Based on the “chances of victory” I gave for each game (ranging from 49 percent against Texas to 99.9 percent against Utah State), the law of probability calculates OU's odds of going undefeated at about 4.5 percent.
The probability the Sooners finish either 12-0 or 11-1 is roughly 10.5 percent.
OU's 2010 football schedule
Sept. 4: Utah State
Sept. 11: Florida State
Sept. 18: Air Force
Sept. 25: at Cincinnati
Oct. 2: Texas
Oct 16: Iowa State
Oct. 23: at Missouri
Oct. 30: Colorado
Nov. 6: at Texas A&M
Nov. 13: Texas Tech
Nov. 20: at Baylor
Nov. 27: at Oklahoma State
NewsOK Related Articles
* OU football notebook: Adrian Taylor progressing slowly
08/22/2010 Defensive tackle Adrian Taylor, recovering from ankle surgery, is making progress but it's doubtful he will play in the Sept. 4 season opener. Taylor has...
But getting there won't be easy.
The slate features nine teams coming off bowl appearances. Two of those teams played in BCS bowl games.
Still, OU figures to be favored in every game, with the possible exception of Texas.
Ranking OU's schedule from toughest to easiest, and the chances for victory in each game.
1. Oct 2: Texas
The Longhorns have some question marks offensively, but the defense, featuring the top secondary in the nation, should be stout again. Texas also has the momentum, winning four of five. Still, like it is in most years, this game is almost a flip of a coin.
Chance of victory: 49 percent
2. Sept. 25: at Cincinnati
The Bearcats lost coach Brian Kelly and QB Tony Pike, but OU better not take UC lightly. Zach Collaros started four games last season while Pike recovered from a broken forearm, and was so good he started a public debate over which QB should start when Pike returned. The Bearcats have also won 21 of their last 23 games at home, and while this game will be played at Paul Brown Stadium, that still lies within the Cincinnati limits.
Chance of victory: 60 percent
3. Nov. 6: at Texas A&M
The Aggies will have an explosive offense, spearheaded by QB Jerrod Johnson, an experienced receiving rotation and a pair of playmaking running backs. When the Aggies are respectable, it's no cakewalk playing in College Station, where Texas A&M averaged a 40 points a game last year. Still, in the event of a shoot-out, OU's defense has a track record of coming up with key stops. Home or away, Texas A&M's does not.
Chance of victory: 65 percent
4. Nov. 27: at Oklahoma State
OU catches the Pokes at the worst possible time, as the Cowboys will have plenty of experience running new coordinator Dana Holgorsen's offense by this point in the season. OSU might be rebuilding with a new QB, a new offense and several new starters on defense; but no matter the coaches or players, Bedlam has become a dogfight in Stillwater the last 15 years.
Chance of victory: 70 percent
5. Oct. 23: at Missouri
The Tigers were one fourth-quarter meltdown against Nebraska away from winning the Big 12 North last year. QB Blaine Gabbert is healthy, so Mizzou will be capable of putting up points. But the Tigers play OU in between road games at Texas A&M and Nebraska, meaning Mizzou won't be able to zero in OU no matter how many times the Sooners thumped them in the Big 12 title game.
Chance of victory: 70 percent
6. Sept. 11: Florida State
The last time an ACC opponent came to Oklahoma, the Sooners slaughtered them, 52-9. But there's reason to believe the Seminoles will better than the squad Miami brought to Norman in 2007. QB Christian Ponder has gotten some pub for the Heisman, and he'll have a veteran offensive line protecting him. But whether the Seminoles threaten to win the ACC, or break OU's 30-game home-winning streak, depends heavily on how quickly coordinator Mark Stoops can turn around a defense that's been anemic. Best guess, it'll take more than just a couple of games to do that.
Chance of victory: 75 percent
7. Nov. 20: at Baylor
OU is 19-0 all-time against the Bears. But with QB Robert Griffin back in the saddle, a bowl berth may be on the line for Baylor when OU travels to Waco for the Bears' regular-season finale. That could be a dangerous scenario for the Sooners, who could find themselves caught looking ahead to Bedlam the following week.
Chance of victory: 80 percent
8. Nov. 13: Texas Tech
Mike Leach, the only coach other than Mack Brown to beat Bob Stoops three times, is gone. But the cupboard is completely bare for new coach Tommy Tuberville with seven returning starters offensively. But like most other offenses, Tech's has been shut down in Norman over the years, and a new coach or system won't be enough to change that.
Chance of victory: 90 percent
9. Sept. 18: Air Force
The Academy has been no pushover lately. Thanks to a stingy defense and its unique style of option offense, Air Force won eight games last year, and came close to toppling both TCU and Utah. But in three years under coach Troy Calhoun, Air Force is 0-9 when giving up at least 29 points. Only three times in the Bob Stoops era has OU failed to score that many at home against a nonconference opponent.
Chance of victory: 95 percent
10. Oct. 30: Colorado
The worst team in the Big 12 could be Colorado. But the surprise team in the league could be Colorado, too. On paper, there's no reason it shouldn't be the latter. The Buffs bring back their QB in Tyler Hansen, a decent running back in Rodney Stewart, an All-Big 12-caliber WR in Scotty McKnight, all five starters on the offensive line and seven starters defensively. Still, Colorado has shown nothing on the field to indicate this program is ready to turn a corner.
Chance of victory: 96 percent
11. Oct 16: Iowa State
The Cyclones are better than most are giving them credit for. But with arguably the nation's toughest overall schedule, they'll likely be beat up by the time they visit Norman. Iowa State played OU tough the last time the two teams met in 2007. And in beating Nebraska in Lincoln last year, the Cyclones proved they're capable of pulling an upset. But chances are, it's not here.
Chance of victory: 97 percent
12. Sept. 4 Utah State
This Aggie team is much better than the one blasted 54-3 by OU in 2007. Still, nowhere good enough to keep this one competitive.
Chance of victory: 99.9 percent
Read more: http://newsok.com/ou-insider-ranking-the-games-from-toughest-to-easiest/article/3487744?custom_click=lead_story_title#ixzz0xOG1PNx 5
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