So is anyone besides me....

[royalfan5]

paying attention to the crazyness in the grain markets?

[Serge Ibaka]

Is that what y'all do in Nebrasky?

[NormanPride]

Re they turning into bread or something? Because that is what I call a tasty problem, my friend.

[yermom]

no.

[JohnnyMack]

Yes. I'll admit that wheat futures is sort of a bizarre spank bank addition, but hey, whatever works.

[royalfan5]

Wheat prices have went up a 1.50 in two weeks despite near record supplies. All sorts of fund money is piling in despite poor fundamentals. It is really an interesting time.

[BillyBall]

All sorts of fund money is piling in despite poor fundamentals.

That usually works out well...

[royalfan5]

That usually works out well...

I know...but I'm the guy who looks like the ******* for the time being. Hopefully Russia dumps reserves soon and everybody calms the **** down.

[delhalew]

I know...but I'm the guy who looks like the ******* for the time being. Hopefully Russia dumps reserves soon and everybody calms the **** down.

You trying to tell me a loaf of bread is gonna go up again?
As much wheat as we grow down here, that out to be good for the locals.
Do you grow wheat as well, or just the corn?

[royalfan5]

You trying to tell me a loaf of bread is gonna go up again?
As much wheat as we grow down here, that out to be good for the locals.
Do you grow wheat as well, or just the corn?

I trade all the major ag commodites except cotton(for now) and do risk management for farmers.

[NormanPride]

Is "Risk Management" like "Protection Money"?

[royalfan5]

Is "Risk Management" like "Protection Money"?

It's more way of organizing a farmer's grain for sale into cash markets.

[delhalew]

It's more way of organizing a farmer's grain for sale into cash markets.

I find that to be very interesting. I always wondered what was involved in the process beyond grow stuff...sell stuff.
Why are you abstaining from cotton? This has to be the only crop that can rival wheat for dominance in Oklahoma.

[royalfan5]

I find that to be very interesting. I always wondered what was involved in the process beyond grow stuff...sell stuff.
Why are you abstaining from cotton? This has to be the only crop that can rival wheat for dominance in Oklahoma.

Because I don't have an clients with cotton. Soon as I have a guy that has cotton or wants to trade it, I'll trade it.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Can I still get store brand wheat bread for a buck and a quarter?

[royalfan5]

Can I still get store brand wheat bread for a buck and a quarter?

Probably, wheat basis is still sloppy as hell.

[Crucifax Autumn]

I just felt the need to ask a stupid question so I'd fit in better around here.

[Chuck Bao]

I'm not surprised. Someone was telling me a few days ago that the major fund management companies are still very nervous about a second economic lapse in the US and waning confidence in Europe being able to get its act together. That is why the Asian markets have outperformed and fund flows into Thai equities have picked up despite the very uncertain and still potentially scary political outlook.

Similarly (meaning throwing all fundamentals aside), grain futures may be seen as the new gold, or at least a short-term trading hedge or safe haven.

I don't envy you, Royalfan, especially if you have to explain to your clients why you didn't correctly advise them on getting the best price. That has to be tough.

I don't trust the markets and the herd instinct and massive fund flows driving the volatility. I'm just glad that I no longer have to try to explain some of that twisted market logic to my clients.

On the other hand, better agri prices must mean more commissions for you and higher future volume on expanded planting. It may be a trap for your clients, but farmers have traditionally been caught in that price trap. The futures just notched that game up.

[captain_surly]

I know...but I'm the guy who looks like the ******* for the time being. Hopefully Russia dumps reserves soon and everybody calms the **** down.

I don't think Russia is selling any wheat anytime soon. I'm hearing rumors their harvest may come in at 30-40% below estimates.

I'm also led to believe that soon after the fall elections the ethanol mandate is going to 13-15% which is a giant ripoff for everyone who isn't a corn farmer.

[royalfan5]

I'm not surprised. Someone was telling me a few days ago that the major fund management companies are still very nervous about a second economic lapse in the US and waning confidence in Europe being able to get its act together. That is why the Asian markets have outperformed and fund flows into Thai equities have picked up despite the very uncertain and still potentially scary political outlook.

Similarly (meaning throwing all fundamentals aside), grain futures may be seen as the new gold, or at least a short-term trading hedge or safe haven.

I don't envy you, Royalfan, especially if you have to explain to your clients why you didn't correctly advise them on getting the best price. That has to be tough.

I don't trust the markets and the herd instinct and massive fund flows driving the volatility. I'm just glad that I no longer have to try to explain some of that twisted market logic to my clients.

On the other hand, better agri prices must mean more commissions for you and higher future volume on expanded planting. It may be a trap for your clients, but farmers have traditionally been caught in that price trap. The futures just notched that game up.

We are in pretty good shape on cash sales, and I would much rather have to deal with a bullish surprise than a bearish one. It just frustrating to go from smart to stupid in short period of time.

[Jello Biafra]

I'm also led to believe that soon after the fall elections the ethanol mandate is going to 13-15% which is a giant ripoff for everyone who isn't a corn farmer.



hmmm oddly enough, there is a LOT of corn grown in illinois....coincidence?

[royalfan5]

I don't think Russia is selling any wheat anytime soon. I'm hearing rumors their harvest may come in at 30-40% below estimates.

I'm also led to believe that soon after the fall elections the ethanol mandate is going to 13-15% which is a giant ripoff for everyone who isn't a corn farmer.

Even with that drop, they still have huge reserves and so do we. As far as the ethanol blend rate goes, it's been punted so many times now, I wouldn't get too excited about it. ADM is pushing for 11%, and if we get anything before year end, that's what I would guess we would get.

[C&CDean]

This is why it's never a good idea to get a job playing with other peoples' money. It never turns out well in the long haul.

I get a daily grain/cattle report. It's doing weird ****. Live cattle went way up, dropped a hair, then bang - right back up again. I sold a bunch, and will now be waiting for the price to drop and I'll buy a bunch back. That's the extent of "paying attention to the market" for me.

[royalfan5]

This is why it's never a good idea to get a job playing with other peoples' money. It never turns out well in the long haul.

I get a daily grain/cattle report. It's doing weird ****. Live cattle went way up, dropped a hair, then bang - right back up again. I sold a bunch, and will now be waiting for the price to drop and I'll buy a bunch back. That's the extent of "paying attention to the market" for me.

Beats the **** out of being unemployed though.