the_ouskull
4/8/2010, 12:13 PM
by: the_ouskull
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Once upon a time...
Yeah, right...
Blake Griffin: I mean, like it or not, the guy's an NBA rookie this year. (That's right! That's right! Tough sh*t, John Wall! Tough sh*t, Evan "The Villain" Turner!) So let's discuss him as the first one.
But first, some notes:
- Age is not a factor for any of the candidates I am going to discuss, so I won't keep mentioning their respective ages as a positive. Just know that the youth of our guys who are looking to play professional basketball is a positive. Age matters. When a guy's finishing up his college career at age 24, when most of the kids he's going against are between 4-6 years younger than him, his stats are going to over-value him, but a bit of realism won't. Teams need to view guys like this the same way they look at a grade-school kid who's been left back twice and dominates the lunchtime kickball game, but for some reason a lot of clubs don't.
- It's been widely established by such well-respected minds as oumartin... and others... that I am completely full of sh*t, so please, take all of this with a grain of salt. I realize that many of you feel like Tony Crocker is going to pair up with Longar Longar and form an quite-stoppable duo the likes of which have... no. Stop. This isn't about that. It's about real, based on what I think I know about the NBA. If you're looking for sunshine, and want to argue it here... well, good luck. Maybe we'll agree.
-
So, moving on...
Blake Griffin:
Drafted: 1st pick overall, Los Angeles Clippers, 2009.
Let's take a look at some of the stats that matter, in regards to NBA success...
- Steals and Blocks: he averaged roughly a steal and a block (roughly) per game his sophomore year, playing as an under-sized five for much of the season. However, these are two of the least highly-regarded stats for NBA analysis. If someone gets a ton of steals, or blocks, it does stand out, and teams will take a second look... but then they'll see some 7'5" kid playing for SOSU in Doo-rant or something, and they're like, "Ohhhhh..." and that's the end of it.
- Rebounds: So, Blake's got this covered. Let's move on.
- 3-pointers: While Blake may not have this covered, he is also smart enough to realize his limitations, and only take uncontested shots from distance, if he takes even those.
There are also potential red flags to look for...
- Size: For his NBA position, the four, Blake sizes out well. But, if he's asked to have to slide over to take on opposing five's with any regularity, it's going to result in a lot of either foul trouble, or easy baskets.
In Blake's case, this is the only potential red flag. For other players, there will be other flags, I promise...
Willie Warren: My projection: late 1st round, NBA draft
- Steals and Blocks: While he's managed to average a steal per game each of his two seasons, he has managed to register only 3 blocked shots in two entire seasons at Oklahoma. Needless to say, his defensive commitment will be questioned. This alone will be reason enough for him to fall out of the lottery.
- Rebounding: For a 6'4" guard for whom athleticism is supposed to be a plus, the fact that he never averaged more than 3.3 rebounds in a college season, and never pulled down more than 8 in a single game is also going to be a bit damaging. His rebound rate is horrible as well - and it's a much more-accurate indicator, even though I will admit to not having the patience to calculate it completely... If anybody else would like to, I can tell you how.
- 3-pointers: Now we're talkin', right? He shoots a lot of those. Yeah... About that... his 3pt% dipped from .372 to .309. Now, while his supporters will tell you that is because OU lost the inside presence of Blake Griffin, allowing teams to key on Warren as OU's primary scorer... people who watch basketball will tell you it's because he became a gunner (uh, he actually averaged FEWER 3's per game his sophomore year) and because he stopped trying to get to the free throw line (he attempted 50% more free throws per game his sophomore season, and hit a better percentage of them) and because he's a turnover machine. (I can't defend that one. He is. He has GOT to take better care of the basketball, both in his ball-handling, and his decision-making with his passes and the situations he gets himself into.)
- Assist/Turnover Ratio: I would actually prefer to use Pure Point Rating here as well, but once again, that's a LOT of math that I don't feel like doing right now. I can show you how if you'd like. But either way, things do NOT look well for Senor Warren.
As for red flags...
- Size: He is a big point or a small two? I don't think he handles or takes care of the ball well enough to play the point position in the NBA... but he needs the ball in his hands a great deal of the time in order to be effective. (His usage rating is ridiculous...) Until he learns to be a more efficient offensive player, he won't see much of the floor, no matter where he's drafted.. unless he's playing a lot of point guard for a team that's okay with a lot of turnovers, like Golden State.
- Perimeter Players Who Don't Make Threes: Yeah, I said it. Until he proves that he can get his shot off consistently against the bigger, stronger, faster players at the NBA level, he's going to be a suspect shooter, and he's already a fairly suspect shooter coming out of college, averaging only 1.7 makes from downtown per game during his college career and seeing such a freshman to sophomore drop-off in his shooting percentage from downtown as well.
- Really Bad Rebounders: Uh, Willie... once again, man, listen... you averaged slightly over half an offensive rebound per game while at OU, and only 2.6 per game for your career here. You're supposed to be super-athletic combo-guard, not "I hope that thing bounces to me" guard.
- La Cabeza: In addition to everything else, Willie has already, due to the stink of the program here right now, developed a bad rep in the minds of a lot of NBA heads. He'll be fighting an uphill battle everywhere he works out, and, if early reports of him are good, then they'll steadily improve... or if they're bad, then the team that leaked the bad reports first will be the one to draft him, maybe higher than projected.
Keith Gallon: I mean, he IS gone, right? Do we know yet? Can I even do this paragraph without getting OU in trouble?
I'll hit up TMG, Crocker, and anybody else that you might want to know a little more about in a bit. (Sorry, my cousin is here for me to tutor him...)
the_ouskull
-----
Once upon a time...
Yeah, right...
Blake Griffin: I mean, like it or not, the guy's an NBA rookie this year. (That's right! That's right! Tough sh*t, John Wall! Tough sh*t, Evan "The Villain" Turner!) So let's discuss him as the first one.
But first, some notes:
- Age is not a factor for any of the candidates I am going to discuss, so I won't keep mentioning their respective ages as a positive. Just know that the youth of our guys who are looking to play professional basketball is a positive. Age matters. When a guy's finishing up his college career at age 24, when most of the kids he's going against are between 4-6 years younger than him, his stats are going to over-value him, but a bit of realism won't. Teams need to view guys like this the same way they look at a grade-school kid who's been left back twice and dominates the lunchtime kickball game, but for some reason a lot of clubs don't.
- It's been widely established by such well-respected minds as oumartin... and others... that I am completely full of sh*t, so please, take all of this with a grain of salt. I realize that many of you feel like Tony Crocker is going to pair up with Longar Longar and form an quite-stoppable duo the likes of which have... no. Stop. This isn't about that. It's about real, based on what I think I know about the NBA. If you're looking for sunshine, and want to argue it here... well, good luck. Maybe we'll agree.
-
So, moving on...
Blake Griffin:
Drafted: 1st pick overall, Los Angeles Clippers, 2009.
Let's take a look at some of the stats that matter, in regards to NBA success...
- Steals and Blocks: he averaged roughly a steal and a block (roughly) per game his sophomore year, playing as an under-sized five for much of the season. However, these are two of the least highly-regarded stats for NBA analysis. If someone gets a ton of steals, or blocks, it does stand out, and teams will take a second look... but then they'll see some 7'5" kid playing for SOSU in Doo-rant or something, and they're like, "Ohhhhh..." and that's the end of it.
- Rebounds: So, Blake's got this covered. Let's move on.
- 3-pointers: While Blake may not have this covered, he is also smart enough to realize his limitations, and only take uncontested shots from distance, if he takes even those.
There are also potential red flags to look for...
- Size: For his NBA position, the four, Blake sizes out well. But, if he's asked to have to slide over to take on opposing five's with any regularity, it's going to result in a lot of either foul trouble, or easy baskets.
In Blake's case, this is the only potential red flag. For other players, there will be other flags, I promise...
Willie Warren: My projection: late 1st round, NBA draft
- Steals and Blocks: While he's managed to average a steal per game each of his two seasons, he has managed to register only 3 blocked shots in two entire seasons at Oklahoma. Needless to say, his defensive commitment will be questioned. This alone will be reason enough for him to fall out of the lottery.
- Rebounding: For a 6'4" guard for whom athleticism is supposed to be a plus, the fact that he never averaged more than 3.3 rebounds in a college season, and never pulled down more than 8 in a single game is also going to be a bit damaging. His rebound rate is horrible as well - and it's a much more-accurate indicator, even though I will admit to not having the patience to calculate it completely... If anybody else would like to, I can tell you how.
- 3-pointers: Now we're talkin', right? He shoots a lot of those. Yeah... About that... his 3pt% dipped from .372 to .309. Now, while his supporters will tell you that is because OU lost the inside presence of Blake Griffin, allowing teams to key on Warren as OU's primary scorer... people who watch basketball will tell you it's because he became a gunner (uh, he actually averaged FEWER 3's per game his sophomore year) and because he stopped trying to get to the free throw line (he attempted 50% more free throws per game his sophomore season, and hit a better percentage of them) and because he's a turnover machine. (I can't defend that one. He is. He has GOT to take better care of the basketball, both in his ball-handling, and his decision-making with his passes and the situations he gets himself into.)
- Assist/Turnover Ratio: I would actually prefer to use Pure Point Rating here as well, but once again, that's a LOT of math that I don't feel like doing right now. I can show you how if you'd like. But either way, things do NOT look well for Senor Warren.
As for red flags...
- Size: He is a big point or a small two? I don't think he handles or takes care of the ball well enough to play the point position in the NBA... but he needs the ball in his hands a great deal of the time in order to be effective. (His usage rating is ridiculous...) Until he learns to be a more efficient offensive player, he won't see much of the floor, no matter where he's drafted.. unless he's playing a lot of point guard for a team that's okay with a lot of turnovers, like Golden State.
- Perimeter Players Who Don't Make Threes: Yeah, I said it. Until he proves that he can get his shot off consistently against the bigger, stronger, faster players at the NBA level, he's going to be a suspect shooter, and he's already a fairly suspect shooter coming out of college, averaging only 1.7 makes from downtown per game during his college career and seeing such a freshman to sophomore drop-off in his shooting percentage from downtown as well.
- Really Bad Rebounders: Uh, Willie... once again, man, listen... you averaged slightly over half an offensive rebound per game while at OU, and only 2.6 per game for your career here. You're supposed to be super-athletic combo-guard, not "I hope that thing bounces to me" guard.
- La Cabeza: In addition to everything else, Willie has already, due to the stink of the program here right now, developed a bad rep in the minds of a lot of NBA heads. He'll be fighting an uphill battle everywhere he works out, and, if early reports of him are good, then they'll steadily improve... or if they're bad, then the team that leaked the bad reports first will be the one to draft him, maybe higher than projected.
Keith Gallon: I mean, he IS gone, right? Do we know yet? Can I even do this paragraph without getting OU in trouble?
I'll hit up TMG, Crocker, and anybody else that you might want to know a little more about in a bit. (Sorry, my cousin is here for me to tutor him...)
the_ouskull