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the_ouskull
4/8/2010, 12:13 PM
by: the_ouskull

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Once upon a time...

Yeah, right...

Blake Griffin: I mean, like it or not, the guy's an NBA rookie this year. (That's right! That's right! Tough sh*t, John Wall! Tough sh*t, Evan "The Villain" Turner!) So let's discuss him as the first one.

But first, some notes:

- Age is not a factor for any of the candidates I am going to discuss, so I won't keep mentioning their respective ages as a positive. Just know that the youth of our guys who are looking to play professional basketball is a positive. Age matters. When a guy's finishing up his college career at age 24, when most of the kids he's going against are between 4-6 years younger than him, his stats are going to over-value him, but a bit of realism won't. Teams need to view guys like this the same way they look at a grade-school kid who's been left back twice and dominates the lunchtime kickball game, but for some reason a lot of clubs don't.

- It's been widely established by such well-respected minds as oumartin... and others... that I am completely full of sh*t, so please, take all of this with a grain of salt. I realize that many of you feel like Tony Crocker is going to pair up with Longar Longar and form an quite-stoppable duo the likes of which have... no. Stop. This isn't about that. It's about real, based on what I think I know about the NBA. If you're looking for sunshine, and want to argue it here... well, good luck. Maybe we'll agree.

-

So, moving on...

Blake Griffin:

Drafted: 1st pick overall, Los Angeles Clippers, 2009.

Let's take a look at some of the stats that matter, in regards to NBA success...

- Steals and Blocks: he averaged roughly a steal and a block (roughly) per game his sophomore year, playing as an under-sized five for much of the season. However, these are two of the least highly-regarded stats for NBA analysis. If someone gets a ton of steals, or blocks, it does stand out, and teams will take a second look... but then they'll see some 7'5" kid playing for SOSU in Doo-rant or something, and they're like, "Ohhhhh..." and that's the end of it.

- Rebounds: So, Blake's got this covered. Let's move on.

- 3-pointers: While Blake may not have this covered, he is also smart enough to realize his limitations, and only take uncontested shots from distance, if he takes even those.

There are also potential red flags to look for...

- Size: For his NBA position, the four, Blake sizes out well. But, if he's asked to have to slide over to take on opposing five's with any regularity, it's going to result in a lot of either foul trouble, or easy baskets.

In Blake's case, this is the only potential red flag. For other players, there will be other flags, I promise...

Willie Warren: My projection: late 1st round, NBA draft

- Steals and Blocks: While he's managed to average a steal per game each of his two seasons, he has managed to register only 3 blocked shots in two entire seasons at Oklahoma. Needless to say, his defensive commitment will be questioned. This alone will be reason enough for him to fall out of the lottery.

- Rebounding: For a 6'4" guard for whom athleticism is supposed to be a plus, the fact that he never averaged more than 3.3 rebounds in a college season, and never pulled down more than 8 in a single game is also going to be a bit damaging. His rebound rate is horrible as well - and it's a much more-accurate indicator, even though I will admit to not having the patience to calculate it completely... If anybody else would like to, I can tell you how.

- 3-pointers: Now we're talkin', right? He shoots a lot of those. Yeah... About that... his 3pt% dipped from .372 to .309. Now, while his supporters will tell you that is because OU lost the inside presence of Blake Griffin, allowing teams to key on Warren as OU's primary scorer... people who watch basketball will tell you it's because he became a gunner (uh, he actually averaged FEWER 3's per game his sophomore year) and because he stopped trying to get to the free throw line (he attempted 50% more free throws per game his sophomore season, and hit a better percentage of them) and because he's a turnover machine. (I can't defend that one. He is. He has GOT to take better care of the basketball, both in his ball-handling, and his decision-making with his passes and the situations he gets himself into.)

- Assist/Turnover Ratio: I would actually prefer to use Pure Point Rating here as well, but once again, that's a LOT of math that I don't feel like doing right now. I can show you how if you'd like. But either way, things do NOT look well for Senor Warren.

As for red flags...

- Size: He is a big point or a small two? I don't think he handles or takes care of the ball well enough to play the point position in the NBA... but he needs the ball in his hands a great deal of the time in order to be effective. (His usage rating is ridiculous...) Until he learns to be a more efficient offensive player, he won't see much of the floor, no matter where he's drafted.. unless he's playing a lot of point guard for a team that's okay with a lot of turnovers, like Golden State.

- Perimeter Players Who Don't Make Threes: Yeah, I said it. Until he proves that he can get his shot off consistently against the bigger, stronger, faster players at the NBA level, he's going to be a suspect shooter, and he's already a fairly suspect shooter coming out of college, averaging only 1.7 makes from downtown per game during his college career and seeing such a freshman to sophomore drop-off in his shooting percentage from downtown as well.

- Really Bad Rebounders: Uh, Willie... once again, man, listen... you averaged slightly over half an offensive rebound per game while at OU, and only 2.6 per game for your career here. You're supposed to be super-athletic combo-guard, not "I hope that thing bounces to me" guard.

- La Cabeza: In addition to everything else, Willie has already, due to the stink of the program here right now, developed a bad rep in the minds of a lot of NBA heads. He'll be fighting an uphill battle everywhere he works out, and, if early reports of him are good, then they'll steadily improve... or if they're bad, then the team that leaked the bad reports first will be the one to draft him, maybe higher than projected.

Keith Gallon: I mean, he IS gone, right? Do we know yet? Can I even do this paragraph without getting OU in trouble?

I'll hit up TMG, Crocker, and anybody else that you might want to know a little more about in a bit. (Sorry, my cousin is here for me to tutor him...)

the_ouskull

badger
4/8/2010, 12:17 PM
Eduardo Najera: Might be cuter than Ott and Cade combined!
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fc/Eduardo_Najera.jpg

:D

Seriously though, this guy is still in the league and I'm happy to call him one of OU's own.

SteelClip49
4/8/2010, 12:41 PM
I want to eventually see Najera's number retired just because of the success he has had in the NBA and the leader he is on and off the court.

oumartin
4/8/2010, 12:48 PM
Najera doesn't need to pull the uncle Rico in that photo though. I'm sure his guns are big enough.



Whats up with Taylor this year? he went to the d-league right?

badger
4/8/2010, 01:36 PM
Najera doesn't need to pull the uncle Rico in that photo though. I'm sure his guns are big enough.



Whats up with Taylor this year? he went to the d-league right?

More info on Tay-Tay here. (http://www.realgm.com/src_wiretap_archives/65820/20100407/suns_assign_taylor_griffin_to_d_league/)


Basically, it is commonplace for the Suns to send the guys at the end of the bench down to the D-League so they stay in game shape even if they don't play in NBA games.

This move is not a knock on Taylor at all. He's been recalled every time he's been sent to the Iowa Energy.

...sooner
4/8/2010, 01:51 PM
Najera doesn't need to pull the uncle Rico in that photo though. I'm sure his guns are big enough.



Whats up with Taylor this year? he went to the d-league right?

i follow him on twitter hes back & forth! i know he was with phoenix last time they came to OKC i wonder if he will be there tomorrow?

Collier11
4/8/2010, 01:55 PM
He has been on the big boys roster for atleast a month now, maybe more. He has been getting some playing time here and there but not a ton.

the_ouskull
4/8/2010, 02:33 PM
Yeah, I didn't want to cover Taylor since he's already played a full season. His "potential" is pretty much tapped at this point, I'm afraid. He's always going to be an over-achiever who will be as strong as anybody on the court, but just not quite athletic enough or skilled enough (shooting, etc...) to pull it off. Kinda like Eduardo, with less of an outside shot.

Anyway, moving on...

Keith Gallon:

Projection: late 1st round at best; mostly likely early-mid 2nd round

Now, before I get TOO into this, let me start off by saying that shooting 23.5% from downtown doesn't make you "a big man that spreads the floor." It makes you Rasheed Wallace. It makes you a lazy(ier?) Zach Randolph.

- Steals and Blocks: He didn't average a full one per game, despite a number of opportunities in both the open floor and half court, during his only season at Oklahoma. (Should I NOT be talking about him in the past tense? Really?) This doesn't bode well for his potential, athletically, to play in the league.

- Rebounding: He averaged 7.9 rebounds per game, with a season-high of 18. Impressive, until you realize that he did this on a defense where a 6'5" (if that) guard averaged 6.2 per game. (Crocker) He boxes out poorly, if at all, and often appears lost or out of place on the defensive glass. He does not hustle for rebounds, however, which, when combined with his lack of positioning and boxing out, kills his rebound rate. BUT... he also averaged 2.77 OFFENSIVE rebounds per game, which NBA teams do love, perhaps more than they should...

- 3-pointers: Bwahahahahahahahaha! At least, to his credit, he didn't even average .6 per game. We got that crap under wraps fairly quickly... only seeing it rear its head when we needed it not to. (See also, Warren, Willie)

And the Red Flags...

- Size: Well, whether or not he's as big as he's listed at 6'9" matters very little because, due to his lack of size, strength, and athleticism, he's going to play much smaller than he is anyway. Combined with a minimal knowledge of footwork and almost no work ethic, and he is going to struggle to even get his shot off in the NBA, much less "find his range." I think that, unless he humbles himself offensively for a few years to become more of a Paul Milsap-type, he's going to shoot himself out of a job, Antoine Walker-style.

- La Cabeza: Did he take money? Did he blah, blah, blah...? Who knows? I don't know. Do you know who doesn't care? NBA teams? You guessed it. They'll take the next marginally talented athlete. The one that isn't a potential lazy headcase. Sorry.

Tommy Mason-Griffin:

I really, really wanted to be typing this three years from now, just so you guys know...

Projection: late 2nd round to undrafted, perhaps Euroleague or D-League. He won't play in a premier Euro-league, though, nor will he play in the NBA.

- Steals and Blocks: Not quite one steal per game, and zero blocks. None. In a full season of college basketball, he never once contested a shot well enough to block it. If you hear a squishy noise, that's the NBA drooling on themselves, praying that someone wastes a first-round pick on this guy.

- Rebounding: His three boards per game, including .5 offensive boards (what, what) are actually a fairly good indicator of his ability to rebound in the league... for his size and position. Sadly, nothing else about him is.

- 3-pointers: Okay, one other thing is... He's shooting 2.25 3's per game, and hitting them at a 42.4% clip. That's some nice police work there, Lou.

- Pure Point Rating: Well, as with the others, I'm not calculating it, but it doesn't favor him poorly. He's got a good assist/turnover ratio, even though he turns the ball over too often... and he gets to the line 3x per game, at an 81% clip. Decent, but not great. He'll get to the line less at the next level, making it almost meaningless.

The Red Flags:

- Size: He's a full-grown midget. So what if he's a strong one and he jumps straight up into the air when he shoots...? He's clearing that shot at around 7'6"-8'. I have a standing reach of 7'5", and I'm a (barely) six foot tall white guy with NO athletic ability. He's going to be guarded by guys whose reach starts where he's supposed to be releasing his shot. I'll bet they get more than 0 blocks per game against him.

...and that's just how if effects him on offense. On defense, forget it. He'll be pick and rolled to death and posted up from every angle. Unless he morphs into rookie Iverson overnight and comes out getting five steals per game, his adjusted plus-minus could be historically bad.

- Attitude: He wasn't good enough for "me first" to fly for him in college. How's he going to adjust to professional basketball? Just remember these phrases:

Abbiamo giocato duro fuori là stasera. Voglio appena aiutare la squadra a vincere. La pasta misura perfettamente la mia configurazione.

...and you'll be fine, Tommy. Good luck, I guess.

Tony Crocker:

Projection: undrafted

Every year, guys, there's a guy that is just good enough to make us think, "Could he?" He couldn't. I'm excited that he's getting invited places like Portsmouth. I think he'll make some D-League or overseas (more likely) team very happy. He is simply not "NBA-material."

- Steals and Rebounds: 1.1 steals, .5 blocks. Not impressive enough to stand out, but low enough to matter.

- Rebounding: He's going to get more credit than he deserves due to his stats from this past season, but those stats don't show him trying to play the four at times. He was going to get some rebounds just 'cause he gave enough of a crap to box out, and the other team can't hit EVERY shot... but he works his tail off boxing out, and it helps his rebounding numbers, and teams like seeing that kind of hustle... when it's attached to size and skill they can work with...

- 3 pointers: Oh, Tony... When you needed your biggest season from downtown, you produced your worst. This season's 32.8 mark was his career-low, but it's gone down since his sophomore season, too. In addition, he doesn't attempt very many free throws per game, often settling for long jumpers or threes... or "if I were George Gervin, this might have a chance" drives...

Red Flags are numerous:

- Ball Handling: Carrying over from the last statement, he doesn't handle the ball well enough to get himself the kinds of shots he needs to get himself going offensively, and he's not skilled enough offensively for next-level teams to run him plays to get him the ball in those spots. It's a vicious cycle.

- Size: He's got good size and a decent (not good, decent) shot for a two guard, and he'll rebound very well for one... but he's nowhere near athletic enough to guard 2's at the NBA-level, and he's not big enough or athletic enough to try to guard 3's. Can you see Tony Crocker guarding Paul Pierce, Gerald Wallace, Michael Beasley, Rashard Lewis, and Josh Howard five teams a season each. He'll have to in the Southeast division. Should I continue?

Good. I can't.

Guys, the realistic pro potential of a college player is something that is a very inexact science, but by analyzing it as realistically - as unemotionally as possible, I think that it's a pretty easy one to understand, even if it's not always accurate.

Anyway, that's what I've got. What do you have for the pile?

the_ouskull

badger
4/8/2010, 05:37 PM
I'm in ur mens bball thread, invading ur discussion with womens bball chatter :D

WNBA prospects!
Tulsa: Amanda Thompson became Tulsa's first-ever franchise draft pick. She has a very good chance of making this team, because our roster is depleted to the point that we're having local tryouts.

Chicago: Abi Olajuwon joins Courtney Paris here. I know they're friends and all, but I just don't think Courtney has the influence, tenure, stature, etc. to help Abi make the roster. The other possibility is Abi replaces Courtney. Hmm.... whoever Chicago doesn't keep, they can send to Tulsa!

Phoenix: Nyeshia Stevenson became Ms. Irrelevant by being the final player taken in the final round of the WNBA Draft. I heard Ashley had a tryout here, so there is a longshot possibility of two Sooners on one roster here too. Alas, Phoenix is not a team on the rise, they're already winning and may not be looking for the services of either Ashley or Ny. Again, please send them to Tulsa immediately.

ouleaf
4/8/2010, 10:09 PM
he's going to shoot himself out of a job, Antoine Walker-style.

Very funny and true. Despite all that, Walker does have a ring(unfortunately) and made well over $100MM. Wouldn't be too shabby if he made out the same, minus Walker eventually going broke and losing all of said $100MM.

I like all the points you listed for the guys.

Blake will be a really good player when he actually gets on the floor. Would be nice if he had a consistent perimeter shot, but he can develop that over time. His athleticism and quickness will get him his points in the meantime.

Not sure if Willie is gonna have a long career in the league at this point. Not a great shooter and not a great ball handler either. Doesn't rebound. If he can get on a team with a good veteran PG to learn from that would help him out tremendously.

Tiny is pretty much hopeless. He'll get picked up by someone, but i think he is just a guy that has relied on his size up until now and that's not gonna cut it anymore.

TMG is also pretty much hopeless for the reasons you listed. The rebounding and 3pt % are nice, but lack of size and so-so A/TO ratio outweighs the others I think.

Crocker will prob. end up in Europe I'm guessing. You brought up a good point about him going up against the other big 2-3 guys and he wouldn't stand even the slimmest of chances against them. Not worth it for an NBA to invest in that.

Collier11
4/9/2010, 12:18 AM
I pray, seriously pray that Blake will not live with the curse of the Clippers and is able to have a long and successful career!

the_ouskull
4/9/2010, 08:30 AM
Very funny and true.

If you like the Antoine Walker comments, read Bill Simmons' latest article on Rasheed Wallace. It's nails.

the_ouskull

ouleaf
4/9/2010, 12:03 PM
Did read that article. Where he goes in depth about how the teams +/- goes way down into the negatives whenever he is on the floor....Sheed is a shell of what he used to be. He doesn't put the work in anymore and pretty much just shows up to collect a check. Looks like he makes just shy of $6MM this year and he's scheduled to make another $13-14MM over the next 2 season...Yikes!

Collier11
4/9/2010, 01:01 PM
Sheed has the skills of a Top player in the game and the drive and want to of a marginal player

the_ouskull
4/9/2010, 03:57 PM
Don't forget the boobz of a career model. He's still trying to "play himself into game shape" in April. Unless his "game shape" is "like a pear with moobs," he has failed.

the_ouskull

SoonerStud615
4/9/2010, 04:52 PM
Not to hate on Eduardo, but he played some dirty @ss basketball the other night when the Mavs played the Thunder. Really disappointed me.

the_ouskull
4/9/2010, 06:18 PM
Not to hate on Eduardo, but he played some dirty @ss basketball the other night when the Mavs played the Thunder. Really disappointed me.

His game was never built on athleticism and skill. It was based on strength, grit, and hustle. Now he's old, and even those things don't quite cut it anymore, and, despite the recent pics of him some of the horned-up ladies around here have been posting, I doubt that he's going to illegal supplement route... so he's probably roughing some people up a bit. Happens. As long as nobody gets hurt, I suppose, it's an "eh."

I'd like to see the 1980's defenses (NBA, not Sooner) come back anyway...

the_ouskull

stoopified
4/11/2010, 10:57 AM
He has been on the big boys roster for atleast a month now, maybe more. He has been getting some playing time here and there but not a ton. As of today Taylor has played a total of 33 minutes in 8 Suns' games.Basically he is getting an NBA check for watching basketball.Where can I sign up for that gig? :D

the_ouskull
4/11/2010, 05:59 PM
Blake was made to replace Amare. Blake's rookie deal should only be three years long. Phoenix has the NBA's greatest trainers... not that Blake's getting the injury-prone rep or anything, I'm just saying...

Oh, and Taylor's in Phoenix...

I mean, it worked in college, right? :D

the_ouskull

Bourbon St Sooner
4/14/2010, 08:36 AM
Nice breakdown skull, but I only saw two Sooners on your list. The rest are interlopers.

...sooner
4/14/2010, 09:08 AM
Blake was made to replace Amare. Blake's rookie deal should only be three years long. Phoenix has the NBA's greatest trainers... not that Blake's getting the injury-prone rep or anything, I'm just saying...

Oh, and Taylor's in Phoenix...

I mean, it worked in college, right? :D

the_ouskull

this would be tiiiiight!