Wow! China 4Q09 GDP growth projected at 10.9%

[Chuck Bao]

I was just watching the MarketWatch video on the week ahead for Asian stock markets. They say that China is expected to announce on Thursday 10.9% yoy GDP growth for the fourth quarter.

I don't know if you are used to looking at economic numbers, but generally 4-6% growth in economic output in one year should be considered a booming economy. Above 10% growth is overheated.

Okay, 4Q08 was a low base for comparison and I'm not sure how much to trust the official Chinese numbers.

The salient point, though, is that China doesn't need to export to the US as much as much as we thought just a few months ago.

Yeah, China is the new bully on the block.

They don't even have to worry so much about pressure from the US to appreciate their currency since so many American companies have manufacturing operations there.

That makes what Google did that much more impressive.

[sooner ngintunr]

So their stimulus plan actually did what it was suppossed to do? Genius!!

[lexsooner]

The people I know who have gone to China on business have been uniformly impressed, even in awe, and not just about the growth figures and numbers. It's more an energy, vibrancy and confidence they sensed in the air in China, a confidence among their people that it is their manifest destiny to be the dominant country on this earth, and it is only a matter of time and a sure thing. That is probably what struck them most about China - the energy and confidence, even a feeling of urgency that China has been asleep for too much of the modern era and it is their time. Hard to explain, but sort of sounds like the energy and attitude of Americans in the late 1800s and early 1900s as we were rising to become the world's only superpower. The greatest resource of any country is its people, and when there is this kind of mindset and energy, China will no doubt be a huge force for many years to come.

[XingTheRubicon]

http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/108534/contrarian-investor-sees-economic-crash-in-china?mod=retire-planning






by David Barboza
Friday, January 8, 2010
provided by


James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.

Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.

As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict. Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent. More from NYTimes.com:

• More on the Magic of RICO

• To Slow Growth, China Raises an Interest Rate

• Retailers See Holiday Sales Rebound From 2008

"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.

As America's pre-eminent short-seller -- he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail -- Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.

Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.

Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.

For all his record of prescience -- in addition to predicting Enron's demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world's biggest banks -- his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.

"I find it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China," said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. "China is not in a bubble."

Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China's economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.

But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China's stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.

"In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he's been tilting against all these decades," said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. "He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That's been his stock and trade."

Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.

"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."

In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.

In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.

The nation's huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth.

But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of "speculative capital," has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.

A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 -- one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.

"It's going to be a bust," said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, "The Coming Collapse of China" (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.

Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd -- even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.

A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm's offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.

"His record is impressive," said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. "He's no fly-by-night charlatan. And I'm bullish on China."

Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.

His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called "The Contrarian Investor," according to an account of his life in "The Smartest Guys in the Room," a book that chronicled Enron's rise and downfall.

After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.

At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in "outright fraud."

That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.

Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.

Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other "financial disasters" over the years.

"They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys," he has said.

[Frozen Sooner]

Good article, Xing. The only real problem that most observers have with shorters is the existence of massively undervalued counterparty risk from nakeds. That's not the fault of the short position holder, though.

[jkjsooner]

I'm just going to throw this out there to get opinions. I do not pretend to be an expert on these things although I do have my opinions.

Sometime in the mid '90s we opened up our trade to China. (I remember Clinton getting a lot of heat from conservatives about it.) The idea was that a open global marketplace will be beneficial to all.

It seems to me that we've been under an illusion that this is beneficial to us. It has been for the short term but are we really just making the noose that will eventually hang us? It's kind of like raising government spending by increasing the deficit and not increasing taxes. It's pretty darn great for a while until the house of cards falls down.

Would we have been better off being a little more self sufficient? Maybe our standard of living would have been lower (less Chinese junk at least) but we wouldn't be a slave to China either. Maybe we would still have some manafacturing capacity as well.

I just see our current approach as being short-sighted. It seems to me that our standard of living will have to approach China/India. If it doesn't then we will continue to be uncompetetive (negative feedback). They will rise to make up some of the difference but I'm afraid we will have to fall to make up the rest.

[Chuck Bao]

http://finance.yahoo.com/retirement/article/108534/contrarian-investor-sees-economic-crash-in-china?mod=retire-planning

Good article. But, the viewpoint seems to be quite different. The viewpoint seems to be why Americans should invest in China. The key question in my mind is why China should invest in America.

Or maybe it does. New job transfers to China maybe should consider the new anti-inflation measures that will be coming.

Two years ago, I asked US embassy staff about the potential for further job relocations to Asia. He couldn't answer me.

We will see on Thursday when the Chinese goverment releases is GDP estimates.

[StoopTroup]

What goes up must come down...and when it comes down...I wouldn't want to be starving 3 or 4 billion people.

[Chuck Bao]

What goes up must come down...and when it comes down...I wouldn't want to be starving 3 or 4 billion people.

It is really weird in my opinion how the press is always wrong.

In the 80s, it was about Japanese superiority and why their shares are priced on 200x price/earnings ratios and that was fine. In the early part of 2000, the consensus was Pax Americana, the American empire.

When they start to write books about it, it is definitely time to sell.

China may be a different case this time with China.

[StoopTroup]

It is really weird in my opinion how the press is always wrong.

In the 80s, it was about Japanese superiority and why their shares are priced on 200x price/earnings ratios and that was fine. In the early part of 2000, the consensus was Pax Americana, the American empire.

When they start to write books about it, it is definitely time to sell.

China may be a different case this time with China.

Yeah I remember how everyone thought Business should adapt the Japanese Culture and techniques or we wouldn't survive back then. I think we learned to be more efficient....but what didn't happen was when your Bank suddenly is responsible for your Country's economic collapse....you don't go commit Seppuku. Instead you ask for a bailout and take a bonus.

[Crucifax Autumn]

I wonder what percent of their GDP comes from loan interest paid by the US....

[Frozen Sooner]

I'm mindful of the production numbers that the Eastern Bloc nations used to throw out there. Does China use GAAP? Is there any accountability in the numbers?

[OklahomaTuba]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk#t=1m15s

Watch this and then try to tell yourself that China's GDP "growth" isn't just a bunch of smoke and mirrors.

I defy you to watch this and then tell me China isn't headed for the biggest economic bust of all time.

[Chuck Bao]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0h7V3Twb-Qk#t=1m15s

Watch this and then try to tell yourself that China's GDP "growth" isn't just a bunch of smoke and mirrors.

I defy you to watch this and then tell me China isn't headed for the biggest economic bust of all time.

You know, I have been hearing that for the last 10 years. Instead, it was the US that achieved that and during the 8 years of a Republican administration.

Hasn’t China achieved a record for the largest economic advance in the history of mankind? I would think that right-wing capitalists would applaud that free enterprise spirit that is leading China in a mad rush towards modernization. Lexsooner already mentioned that spirit of free enterprise. Or, is it unbridled greed?

This reminds me of Thailand in the 80s and early 90s. A senior Bank of Thailand official told me that they are walking a tight rope, but the risk is worth given a window of opportunity to modernize and trickle-down effect increasing Thais’ standard of living and a new emerging middle class. Of course, Thailand fell off the tight rope in ’97, but that was for a very wrong reason of lack of support and poor advice from the World Bank and IMF.

I am definitely not racist, but I do wonder why African or South American countries can’t open up that window of opportunity and take advantage of it like the Asian countries.

The doom and gloom crowd will be right about China some day. There probably already is over-building and over-speculation and asset values have to tumble. The Chinese banking system is clearly over-exposed.

The doom and gloom crowd has been wrong so far because 1) China continues to discount the world in terms of production costs and it will still discount the world even if its currency appreciates 10-20-30%, 2) there is still huge momentum in the Chinese economy with domestic demand remaining strong, 3) the Chinese government’s fiscal position is relatively strong and it can afford to stimulate the economy when needed, 4) China’s foreign reserves are massive and there is no chance that capital in the country has an outlet for capital flight.

We get a ripple of fear move through the Asian stock markets occasionally when news comes out that China bank lending growth is largely to property and stock market speculators. This and the very strong economic growth will very likely result in another round of tightening by the Chinese central government.

Didn’t the clip mention that all of those empty condo units were sold to investors? The state made money on them. The problem is that investors want to sell them at a high price, too expensive for the locals to buy. But this is Inner Mongolia that we are talking about! The clip doesn’t show Shiang Hai or Southern China or Beijing and the suburbs.


I'm mindful of the production numbers that the Eastern Bloc nations used to throw out there. Does China use GAAP? Is there any accountability in the numbers?

First of all, GAAP is only as good as the auditing firm verifying the accounts. Enron taught us that lesson. No doubt, there is a transparency issue for both economic numbers and those of listed firms.

I am still pretty sure that Eastern Bloc nations never achieved such a massive economic build up in such a short time. I haven’t been to China in a long time, but the evidence looks pretty compelling. I don’t know if you trust the big international brokers’ research reports. I read them and they are saying that the economic growth is real and sustainable for at least the near term.

[soonerhubs]

Am I the only one seeing the irony of Tuba citing an Al Jazeera news source? :D

[Crucifax Autumn]

Holy crap...That is funny!

[OklahomaTuba]

Didn’t the clip mention that all of those empty condo units were sold to investors?I'm sure thats what the lenninist minder following the camera crew around told them.

But again, you're talking about GDP growth. What better way to juice GDP growth than building a city where no one lives.

Building massive high rises and malls in Shanghai that are empty. Yeah, they have those too, built by their government to put people to work.

But in the end, its all unsustainable, just like the current admins tripling of the debt is to do the same thing.

[OklahomaTuba]

Am I the only one seeing the irony of Tuba citing an Al Jazeera news source? :DYeah, i'm gonna need to talk a shower after watching that. ;)

[OklahomaTuba]

Pretty good analysis of China from December:


China Faces Crash Scenario


Problems in China continue to mount. Money supply is growing rampantly out of control, property prices are in a bubble, exports are weak, commodity speculation is pervasive, and GDP growth is more of a mirage than real.
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/12/china-faces-crash-scenario.html

Sounds strangely familiar, doesn't it???

[badger]

One thing they don't have, however, is chicks.

Millions of Chinese men lament that they are not rich enough, nor good enough, to find a bride, because when China decided to force couples to only have one child, guess which gender couples chose to keep and which gender couples chose to abort.

Sad but true. Biting em in the arse right about now with a generation of Little Emperors.

[Chuck Bao]

I'm sure thats what the lenninist minder following the camera crew around told them.

But again, you're talking about GDP growth. What better way to juice GDP growth than building a city where no one lives.

Building massive high rises and malls in Shanghai that are empty. Yeah, they have those too, built by their government to put people to work.

But in the end, its all unsustainable, just like the current admins tripling of the debt is to do the same thing.

Obviously you are not reading other posts, or you just refuse to address the points. When is the last time you were in China? Leninist minders? Really? I have made no bones about my distrust for China's maniupulation of global commodity prices and its growing clout on the international stage, but really?

I have close friends involved in numerous China property development projects and these are privately funded and they are selling to private Chinese investors, speculators really.

They didn't skip a beat in switching over to a capitalistic system. Maybe it is innate or maybe they learned from their cousins in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Malaysia, Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, etc.

The diaspora of the Chinese throughout the region is huge and a major economic force and essentially control the capital in these countries with their tradition as the merchantile class, which had previously been looked down upon as lower than the humble indigenous farmer. Now they control in varying degrees throughout the region and many are investing back in China.

[Chuck Bao]

One thing they don't have, however, is chicks.

Millions of Chinese men lament that they are not rich enough, nor good enough, to find a bride, because when China decided to force couples to only have one child, guess which gender couples chose to keep and which gender couples chose to abort.

Sad but true. Biting em in the arse right about now with a generation of Little Emperors.

Why is that such a bad thing? If you think that it is going to produce a lot of softy boys, you are probably mistaken.

They may be producing a generation of Little Emperors, but there is still that Confusian element in their culture that the Little Emperors are going to get schooled on weekdays and weekends and driven to succeed...in a capitlistic system. The lack of chicks is just another competitive element to make them go out and fight and work harder. Okay, I see that it is a bad thing.

[lexsooner]

Hey, Chuck. Tuba is clearly out of his league as far as knowledge and experience, so don't worry about him. If the 20th Century was ours, then all signs are pointing to the 21st Century being China's. This is all so unprecedented, a massive country which is wildly capitalistic, yet Communist in name. Who would have conceived the notion of the greatest growth in wealth in history in such a short period orchestrated by a government which is Communist, at least in name.

Question: so far, China's economy has been carefully regulated by government officials, apparently some very well-educated engineers and scientists by trade who have orchestrated the biggest story of this century. At what point does China "outgrow" the strict governmental control of a rather repressive authoritarian government? Will the standard of living in China rise to a point where people are suddenly less concerned about food and other necessities, but become concerned their personal freedoms are limited? It seems inevitable, IMHO. Will people buck the government which is repressive, yet has engineered the greatest improvement in standard of living in history? Your thoughts, since you are well-informed, unlike others on this board?

[badger]

Why is that such a bad thing? If you think that it is going to produce a lot of softy boys, you are probably mistaken.

They may be producing a generation of Little Emperors, but there is still that Confusian element in their culture that the Little Emperors are going to get schooled on weekdays and weekends and driven to succeed...in a capitlistic system. The lack of chicks is just another competitive element to make them go out and fight and work harder. Okay, I see that it is a bad thing.

This is what is troubling to Chinese leaders. Apparently throughout history, civilizations that have too many boys tends to lead to more crime.

[Chuck Bao]

This is what is troubling to Chinese leaders. Apparently throughout history, civilizations that have too many boys tends to lead to more crime.

Badger, you always have such great points. But, I am curious as to your historic evidence leading to that conclusion. Wars generally took care of the excess in boys.

[badger]

Badger, you always have such great points. But, I am curious as to your historic evidence leading to that conclusion. Wars generally took care of the excess in boys.

Haha, guess so... but then they had to have a war to take care of that, which I'm sure most like to avoid.

This topic has interested me, so I've read practically ever major wire story and even a few blogs out there about it... and people have really, really talked about it lately. It isn't just talking about China and Google, it's also China and bride shortages. A few fun topics of note:

- More than ever, Chinese families set aside money since a boy's youth to be able to afford the amount a bride's family can now demand from a groom's family.

- Crime is already increasing in certain woman-shortage areas, such as prostitution and... a black market for female babies, as well as kidnapping women from surrounding areas of marriage ages (and younger).

- An increasing amount of women also disappear after the wedding, after the dowry (except in this case, to the woman's family instead of the man's) is collected.

- Feminists bloggers who are pro-choice are outraged... not because years of aborting female babies caused this problem, but because China seems to only care that women aren't around to be brides, not artists and scholars and such. :rolleyes:

It is said that China authorities will try to encourage future generations to not only have more than one child, but to definitely have GIRLS and not just boys. Alas, this will be difficult, because families have focused all resources on a single child for a generation now to the point where families and especially youth are used to a certain lifestyle, and thus, families will be unable to afford more than one child... and Chinese families still, despite all the problems it has caused, prefer that the one child they have is an heir... a boy.

[OklahomaTuba]

I have close friends involved in numerous China property development projects and these are privately funded and they are selling to private Chinese investors, speculators really.

Thank you for confirming my point.

And the point of the video showing a town with no people in it, a mall with no stores, and a high-rise with no workers.

The term Potemkin village comes to mind when I think of China right now.

[OklahomaTuba]

Hey, Chuck. Tuba is clearly out of his league as far as knowledge and experience, so don't worry about him. If the 20th Century was ours, then all signs are pointing to the 21st Century being China's. This is all so unprecedented, a massive country which is wildly capitalistic, yet Communist in name. Who would have conceived the notion of the greatest growth in wealth in history in such a short period orchestrated by a government which is Communist, at least in name.That might be one of the more moronic things I've ever seen posted in a while. I think this pretty much confirms you've never set one foot in China.

[Crucifax Autumn]

I've been to Panda Express.

[OklahomaTuba]

I've been to Panda Express.I doubt Lex has even that much experience with the place.

I think most people who have never been there (yet will claim that have) see Shanghai and think the whole place is Las Vegas or something.

Get outside the nicer areas of Shanghai and even Beijing, where most of the Chinese live and work, and all I can say is its pretty shocking the level of poverty, pollution, etc. Its a ****hole.

But their empty cities look nice.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Hell, Shanhai's doing better than Vegas right now! lol

[OklahomaTuba]

Macau is too.

[lexsooner]

That might be one of the more moronic things I've ever seen posted in a while. I think this pretty much confirms you've never set one foot in China.

Sure have, as part of a business delegation, and the economic growth is a sight to see, even staggering. So much of the country is free wheeling capitalistic now, albeit corrupt as heck and watched over by an authoritarian government. Of course real life experience is meaningless if you have YouTube videos to base your broad opinions upon. ;)

[Crucifax Autumn]

Macau is too.

Hell, Haiti's in better shape!

[Bourbon St Sooner]

I'm mindful of the production numbers that the Eastern Bloc nations used to throw out there. Does China use GAAP? Is there any accountability in the numbers?


Is there any accountability in ours?

[Bourbon St Sooner]

One thing they don't have, however, is chicks.

Millions of Chinese men lament that they are not rich enough, nor good enough, to find a bride, because when China decided to force couples to only have one child, guess which gender couples chose to keep and which gender couples chose to abort.

Sad but true. Biting em in the arse right about now with a generation of Little Emperors.

That's why they're so good at sword fighting:)

[Chuck Bao]

Haha, guess so... but then they had to have a war to take care of that, which I'm sure most like to avoid.

This topic has interested me, so I've read practically ever major wire story and even a few blogs out there about it... and people have really, really talked about it lately. It isn't just talking about China and Google, it's also China and bride shortages. A few fun topics of note:

- More than ever, Chinese families set aside money since a boy's youth to be able to afford the amount a bride's family can now demand from a groom's family.

- Crime is already increasing in certain woman-shortage areas, such as prostitution and... a black market for female babies, as well as kidnapping women from surrounding areas of marriage ages (and younger).

- An increasing amount of women also disappear after the wedding, after the dowry (except in this case, to the woman's family instead of the man's) is collected.

- Feminists bloggers who are pro-choice are outraged... not because years of aborting female babies caused this problem, but because China seems to only care that women aren't around to be brides, not artists and scholars and such. :rolleyes:

It is said that China authorities will try to encourage future generations to not only have more than one child, but to definitely have GIRLS and not just boys. Alas, this will be difficult, because families have focused all resources on a single child for a generation now to the point where families and especially youth are used to a certain lifestyle, and thus, families will be unable to afford more than one child... and Chinese families still, despite all the problems it has caused, prefer that the one child they have is an heir... a boy.

Norman Pride, did you know that Badger is so concerned about the lack of females in China?

Beat them at their own game. Set up a mail order bride business to China.

Badger, don't worry so much. The Chinese will invade another country and ravish their women, maybe even Tibet.

On a side note, did anyone else notice the focus of US stock markets today? I wrote about it and initially said that it was a bit perverse, but I took that part out because nobody here would understand it.

[Crucifax Autumn]

So much for the dipsticks on Fox etc. this morning whooping about how the Mass. election was gonna cause some unheard of gigantic surge.

[Chuck Bao]

So much for the dipsticks on Fox etc. this morning whooping about how the Mass. election was gonna cause some unheard of gigantic surge.

Oh good golly. Maybe I shouldn't be surprised.

Clearly, the markets do not want the health care bill to go through. But, there is a game being played on switching to and from commodities/equities and dollar/treasurys. China plays a huge role now.

Seriously, I hope anyone who got caught will remember that Fox is not a reputable news source.

[Crucifax Autumn]

It wasn't just Fox. The more conservative pundits and guests on all of them were saying it and then the more liberal and moderate news sources were reporting early in the day that traders on the floor were "expecting good numbers" thanks to the election and so on. Just a giant herd of sheep basically.

I find it amazing that so many of these traders and "experts" will make such bold statemnts and moves based on one little bit of news in a gigantic sea of assorted factors. If all it took to turn a huge profit in stocks was one little bit of news in a vaccuum, everyone in the world would be millionaires.

I'd be willing to bet though, that all the dooshes on tv bought a bunch at the opening bell and sold at about 11:30 leaving everyone that heard and took seriosu their predictions to lose out.

[Chuck Bao]

It wasn't just Fox. The more conservative pundits and guests on all of them were saying it and then the more liberal and moderate news sources were reporting early in the day that traders on the floor were "expecting good numbers" thanks to the election and so on. Just a giant herd of sheep basically.

I find it amazing that so many of these traders and "experts" will make such bold statemnts and moves based on one little bit of news in a gigantic sea of assorted factors. If all it took to turn a huge profit in stocks was one little bit of news in a vaccuum, everyone in the world would be millionaires.

I'd be willing to bet though, that all the dooshes on tv bought a bunch at the opening bell and sold at about 11:30 leaving everyone that heard and took seriosu their predictions to lose out.

Good point. I am not even watching TV stock market analysts and commentary anymore. It just confuses me.

[Chuck Bao]

This just in on Bloomberg: 10.7% growth. You can say it is fake if you like, but the markets are running with it.


2010-01-21 02:00:00.45 GMT

By Bloomberg News

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economic growth accelerated to the fastest pace since 2007 in the fourth quarter, capping Premier Wen Jiabao’s success in shielding the nation from the global recession.

Gross domestic product rose 10.7 percent from the same period a year ago, more than the median forecast of 10.5 percent in a Bloomberg News survey, a statistics bureau report showed in Beijing today.

The focus for China’s policy makers has now shifted to restraining the inflationary pressures that stem from their success in spurring a rebound. Stocks dropped from Shanghai to New York yesterday on concern that a crackdown on lending and efforts to raise borrowing costs will slow the world’s fastest-growing major economy.

“Policy makers have to weigh the need to curb inflation and the necessity of maintaining stimulus to ensure a smooth recovery,” Xing Ziqiang, an economist at China International

Capital Corp. in Beijing, said before the release. “Tightening too early or too aggressively may lead to a drastic slowdown in the second half of this year.”

Wen this week indicated that he’s putting more emphasis on monthly data than year-on-year figures exaggerated by the slowdown from late 2008.

The economy’s third straight quarterly acceleration highlights the risk that inflation may surge and asset bubbles form after monetary policy committee member Fan Gang said in November that growth of more than 10 percent is excessive.