Probability of a 6 loss season???

[Denver_Sooner]

Tech, in Lubbock is a curse. Stoops has bad mojo playing there. A loss in lubbock makes 5 losses.

Now OSU....


They are ranked in the top 15 guys. They have played better this year than OU. How many of you are getting worried yet?

I'm telling you, a 6 loss season, heads will be rolling. Someone on Stoops' staff will have been "Promoted" and will take their first head coaching job.... at Saint Christopher's School for the blind....

[Jello Biafra]

roflmao....you serious?

you see we scored 60 points last week and held aundm to 10? you realize aundm scored 50 something on TT right?




LosuRs defense scares me a little but not thier offense. one. little. bit. the manscara back will be hit early and often against colorado and will be lucky to make it to Norman. if he doesn't play or is still foggy for our game, they will be lucky to score. my opinion. take it for what its worth.

[OUDoc]

Not worried about osu.

[Denver_Sooner]

roflmao....you serious?

you see we scored 60 points last week and held aundm to 10? you realize aundm scored 50 something on TT right?




LosuRs defense scares me a little but not thier offense. one. little. bit. the manscara back will be hit early and often against colorado and will be lucky to make it to Norman. if he doesn't play or is still foggy for our game, they will be lucky to score. my opinion. take it for what its worth.



Using that logic:


TTech beat Nebraska, Nebraska beat OU.......

[Jello Biafra]

Using that logic:


TTech beat Nebraska, Nebraska beat OU.......

umm dont know if you've noticed or not.....we threw 5 fuggin picks in the nebbish game (one that was returned inside the 5)and missed about 14 fgs... nebraska EARNED zero points on us. ZERO....both the FG and the TD were after turnovers.

[yermom]

we haven't exactly lit anyone up on the road. i'm a bit scared of this game.

i'm pretty sure we break the Aggies' hearts though

[Jello Biafra]

we haven't exactly lit anyone up on the road. i'm a bit scared of this game.

i'm pretty sure we break the Aggies' hearts though

dont get me wrong, im not saying we light ANYONE up. im saying TT looks less impressive that we do ;)

[stoopified]

ZERO %.

[boomermagic]

dont get me wrong, im not saying we light ANYONE up. im saying TT looks less impressive that we do ;)


I agree.. If the refs don't screw us I think we come out with a win..

[JLEW1818]

I'm surprised we are a 6.5 fav

[PDXsooner]

the refs bent us over with three HORRIBLE calls in '05, and bradford got hurt on the 1st play in '07 and the pulled it out by 7 -- Lubbock shouldn't scare anyone...

[JLEW1818]

we still lost the last 2 times

[badger]

Hmmm.... lessons in probability, eh?

You just say six losses, when in fact there is a possibility of having a 4, 5, 6 or 7-loss season, no?

Therefore, the probability of having a 6-loss season on the dot is 1 in 4.

The probability of having at least six losses this season is 1 in 2.

If we don't make a bowl game, the odds are 1 in 3.

Amirite?

[htownsooner7]

I think we win this week. I think we win by 2 tds (at least) against OSU.

[sooner59]

34/79 per Dean Blevins

[gaylordfan1]

only if we lose in a bowl game! We will win one of the next two. Hopefully both.

[jdsooner]

New road uniforms mean a return of Sooner Magic.

We win over OSU at home and give Zac a headache.

[BoulderSooner79]

Hmmm.... lessons in probability, eh?

You just say six losses, when in fact there is a possibility of having a 4, 5, 6 or 7-loss season, no?

Therefore, the probability of having a 6-loss season on the dot is 1 in 4.

The probability of having at least six losses this season is 1 in 2.

If we don't make a bowl game, the odds are 1 in 3.

Amirite?

You're right if all the games are toss-ups :) The perceived odds are proportional to the bravado of the poster :P

I suspect we get and accept a bowl bid regardless. Embarrassing if we're 6-6, but we need the practice.

[oudivesherpa]

Hmmm.... lessons in probability, eh?

You just say six losses, when in fact there is a possibility of having a 4, 5, 6 or 7-loss season, no?

Therefore, the probability of having a 6-loss season on the dot is 1 in 4.

The probability of having at least six losses this season is 1 in 2.

If we don't make a bowl game, the odds are 1 in 3.

Amirite?

Badger, If I remember my Statistics (it's been a long time) you are right.

[TXBOOMER]

Tech is way better than Nebraska but who knows. We play OSU in Norman but who knows. Two weeks from Saturday I will give you a more definitive answer.

[ocsooner]

Not too woried about osu at home. We seem to light people up at home. Away at Lubbock, no matter how bad the sand pirates are, they seem to screw us at home.

This opinion has no actual bearing in reality.

[BoulderSooner79]

I don't see Tech as way better than NU - just way different. NU's stout D triggered a very poor game by our QB and enabled them to win w/o an offense. TT doesn't have that kind of D, but they won't need us to hand them the ball at our 2 in order to score. Our D will be challenged to hold them to under 20 and we'll need to get the ball to Broyles and DM regularly to top them.

[King Barry's Back]

Hmmm.... lessons in probability, eh?

You just say six losses, when in fact there is a possibility of having a 4, 5, 6 or 7-loss season, no?

Therefore, the probability of having a 6-loss season on the dot is 1 in 4.

The probability of having at least six losses this season is 1 in 2.

If we don't make a bowl game, the odds are 1 in 3.

Amirite?

No, you're not right, for two reasons. First, your analysis assumes exactly 50-50 odds of winning each game, like a coin flip. Sports are never so black and white, even if a game appears a toss up.

Second, every time we lose in the regular season, we can expect to draw an easier bowl opponent -- so if we lose the next two games our bowl should be so putrid that we would get to play somebody we can beat on the road.

And for the record I think there is zero chance that we don't go to a bowl. We are already bowl eligible and can finish no worse than 6-6, and we are contractually obligated to accept a bowl bid to one of the Big XII's tie-in bowls.

There is an NCAA rule about a winning team from some nobody conference like the Sunbelt, getting a priority over a 6-6 team, but I think that only applies to at-large bowl spots, not conference tie-in bowls.

[gaylordfan1]

I don't see Tech as way better than NU - just way different. NU's stout D triggered a very poor game by our QB and enabled them to win w/o an offense. TT doesn't have that kind of D, but they won't need us to hand them the ball at our 2 in order to score. Our D will be challenged to hold them to under 20 and we'll need to get the ball to Broyles and DM regularly to top them.

It's true we need to get those guys the ball... But sadly I'm sure their DC knows this. Landry's check downs consist of Broyles first... if it is not there then the ball automatically goes to the RB out of the back field. Except for the occasional pass to Tennell or Miller.

[westcoast_sooner]

I don't see Tech as way better than NU - just way different. NU's stout D triggered a very poor game by our QB and enabled them to win w/o an offense. TT doesn't have that kind of D, but they won't need us to hand them the ball at our 2 in order to score. Our D will be challenged to hold them to under 20 and we'll need to get the ball to Broyles and DM regularly to top them.
I think you're right. Tech's defense isn't terrible like A&M's but it's not as good as Nebraska's, IMO. And Tech's offense, when it's clicking, is way better than Nebraska's offense.

Stoops has always done a good job of getting ready for Tech, and if you listen to his press conference, he'll tell you that they're not doing a lot different than they've done in the past. There will be wrinkles that have to be defended, but overall, our D is VERY good.

On the offensive side, if Landry and co can get a little something going early, and hang onto the football, I think we'll be OK. Might be a closer game than we'd like, but I seriously think we can come out with a "W" if we continue to improve. The keys, as usual, will be Landry, DeMarco and Broyles. Get those guys the ball as often and as many different ways as possible, and they have a chance to do the rest.

[rawlingsHOH]

Tech is way better than Nebraska but who knows.
I think OU matches up better against Tech, than they do against Nebraska.

Though, I also think OU beats Nebraska 3 times out of 4. We crossed the 30 EIGHT times and only managed 3 points. That is unheard of!

[Okie35]

6 loss season bull**** ... ok state has had an easier schedule to play better its pretty obvious

[Okie35]

Tech WAS way better than Nebraska but who knows. We play OSU in Norman but who knows. Two weeks from Saturday I will give you a more definitive answer.

fixed... doubt they are way better now ... Tech will have a hard time scoring

[Denver_Sooner]

50/50 now......

[okiewaker]

This thread is ghay.

[bluedogok]

Using that logic:


TTech beat Nebraska, Nebraska beat OU.......
...and A&M beat Tech and OU beat A&M....so what

IT DOESN'T MEAN A THING THIS SEASON...
Comparative scores and who beat who are absolutely worthless most of the time and even more so this season. It is no longer the 70's where the dominant programs can stockpile players to keep them away from others and use the "we're on TV" line to get recruits. Everyone has good players and can rise up and beat someone any week especially if the other team has an off day. How does Nebraska lose at home to Iowa State? How does A&M blow out Tech (52-30) in Lubbock and then lose to Colorado ?

IT'S DIVISION I FOOTBALL...IT'S BIG 12 FOOTBALL....

[Okie35]

fixed... doubt they are way better now ... Tech will have a hard time scoring

I feel like Andre Ware right now. No way we should lose at home though. Hopefully we can beat up on a sorry *** Big 10 team in our bowl game too.

[Sooner70]

It's real possible that OU ends up 6-6. They really need to bring it when OSU comes to town, because you can be sure they will.

[JLEW1818]

I'm not too scared at home

[budbarrybob]

roflmao....you serious?

you see we scored 60 points last week and held aundm to 10? you realize aundm scored 50 something on TT right?




LosuRs defense scares me a little but not thier offense. one. little. bit. the manscara back will be hit early and often against colorado and will be lucky to make it to Norman. if he doesn't play or is still foggy for our game, they will be lucky to score. my opinion. take it for what its worth.

This makes you sound like a, well, anyway. Sure we have a chance to win. I'd say our chances of winning are less than our chances of losing. Deano will give it a 65% chance of losing and a 50% chance of winning.

[betterstill]

If we beat OSU it will be because of our fans. They are a better team and appear to be, at least this year, coached better. They have two extra days to prepare. (I think they do a better job of scheduling than we do).

If our fans have any heart left and they show it we have a chance. But I do not rate in higher than 50% in any case.

[Husker In Oklahoma]

We crossed the 30 EIGHT times and only managed 3 points. That is unheard of!
Though you never got inside the 20! :D