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Collier11
10/20/2009, 09:29 AM
BCS intelligence
By Dan Wetzel, Yahoo! Sports

While Florida feasted on Charleston Southern and Texas opened with Louisiana-Monroe, the Oklahoma Sooners played a strong BYU team on a neutral field.

That’s when Sam Bradford sprained his shoulder while being sacked, an injury that derailed OU’s title hopes.

A week later, while Florida annihilated Troy and Texas blew out Wyoming, Southern California played at Ohio State.

That’s when freshman Matt Barkley was himself sacked and hurt. He was forced to sit out the next game, which the Trojans lost. Now they’re behind the national title 8-ball.

That’s two tough games, two season-changing injuries and two more examples why as long as the Bowl Championship Series exists, there is no good reason any power team should risk playing a rugged non-conference schedule.

Check out the BCS standings. Florida and Texas are ranked No. 1 and 3 respectively, despite playing weak non-conference teams. Both know if they win out, they’ll play for the title anyway.

This isn’t scheduling cowardice, it’s, in fact, what passes for BCS intelligence.

If you’re a big-name program, it’s foolish to prove yourself outside of the mandated league games. A monster showdown might be fun to play in, but it isn’t proportionately rewarded by either the voters or the computers. All it does is open you up to a loss, an injury or an emotional letdown.

You’re best served staying home and playing patsies.

This column isn’t about who should or shouldn’t be No. 1 or whether this team could win the games on that team’s schedule. There’s plenty of places and time for those debates.

It’s about how despite the BCS’ claim that it, unlike a playoff, protects the “sanctity of the regular season,” it has actually cut down on the exciting games the sport was built on.

And as coaches increasingly figure out how to rig this silly system, the trend toward the dull has only just begun.


“Is the goal to find the team with the best record or the best team?” USC’s Pete Carroll asked reporters after the first BCS standings found his 5-1 Trojans in seventh place, hurt by computers that left the Trojans in the teens.

Carroll should know the answer by now. Sometimes they are one in the same. The one certainty in this uncertain system is that the most likely road to the title game for a big-name team is an undefeated record. Auburn, in 2004, is the lone exception.

“We’ve told our kids that we need to win them all,” said Texas coach Mack Brown of the blueprint for winding up in the BCS title game.

What is the easiest way to “win them all?” Play the weakest competition imaginable; and do it on your campus.

The Longhorns’ non-conference schedule features UL-Monroe, Wyoming, UTEP and Central Florida. It’s an embarrassing slate for a team of its stature, but it’s also one reason UT walked into the Oklahoma game Saturday in excellent health, high confidence and with backups having gained valuable experience.

All of that was enough to leave with a 16-13 victory over the battered Sooners.

Both Brown and Florida coach Urban Meyer are staunchly anti-BCS, but as long as they are stuck with this system, they’re going to try to figure out how to beat it.

While Bradford and Barkley were getting injured against physical non-conference opponents, quarterbacks for Florida and Texas, Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, were watching long stretches of blowouts from the safety of the sideline.

Last offseason Brown brought in a bunch of BCS gurus to Austin to break down how the system works. He didn’t lack for familiar examples. In his own Big 12 he’s watched both Kansas (2007) and Texas Tech (2008) rise to No. 2 in late-season BCS standings, despite playing laughable non-conference schedules, essentially turning the season into two or three serious games.

If you can “win them all” the BCS doesn’t care about the “all.”


Brown, and just about everyone else, is scheduling with this in mind. The Horns’ future opponents are only modestly more challenging than this season. UT will play three weaker teams and add a single major conference opponent per season, none of them true heavyweights – UCLA, Mississippi and Cal.

Meyer, meanwhile, knows that as long as his Gators win the Southeastern Conference, even with one loss, he’s probably in the BCS title game. The non-conference is meaningless to the Gators’ title hopes … unless they lose. So why risk it?

UF hasn’t played a non-conference game outside the state of Florida since the BCS was created and had only two outside Gainesville in the past five seasons. The only major non-conference team on the long-term schedule is fading Florida State. The Gators will play South Florida in 2010 and 2015, but other than that, it’s straight sisters of the poor.

“I don’t plan on changing the way we schedule,” Meyer said last summer.

Why would he? Why would anyone? This isn’t just what the BCS rewards, it’s what it demands.

In the 1980s, pre-BCS, there were annually between 15-20 non-conference games featuring two preseason ranked teams. This year there were just four.

There was a time when scheduling a Football Championship Subdivision team (formerly I-AA) was unheard of; now teams regularly play two of them.

All this despite the expanding of the season that offered more opportunity for real games.

Carroll, for one, tries to schedule only major conference opponents and doesn’t want to hear that retreating is the smartest policy. He believes the thrill is still in the challenge. USC is one of just four schools to have never played a FCS team.

He joins Stoops as part of a small group of coaches who still seeks out two or three powerful non-league opponents each season, fallout be damned.

OU is set up with dates with Ohio State, LSU, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, TCU and Tennessee over the next eight years. Carroll, who’s team took two long trips to the Midwest this season, has future series with Notre Dame, Virginia, Boston College, Texas A&M, Syracuse and Hawaii and is looking for more.

It means every year those two national challenges are voluntarily walking a gauntlet, making chasing a championship exponentially more difficult.

They’d be best served joining Texas, Florida and the rest of the crowd that are playing by the rules the BCS has created – line up the weaklings as their fans’ eyes glaze over in boredom (while still charging full price for tickets, of course).

Apparently Pete Carroll and Bob Stoops still believe in the sanctity of the regular season.

It’s the BCS that doesn’t.

Boomer_Sooner_sax
10/20/2009, 09:36 AM
BCS intelligence


What is an oxymoron, Alex?

Collier11
10/20/2009, 09:41 AM
LOL

cheezyq
10/20/2009, 10:09 AM
I've been saying this since LSU's 2nd title run. The SEC has it down pat. Play a crapload of non-conference weaklings. It has several advantages. One, YOU don't lose, so YOU look better. Two, everyone in your conference looks STACKED because they go into the conference with better records, so it helps your conference's perception to the media and the voters. Three, it helps your computer score, since you're playing competition in your conference that has better records.

I like playing real teams outside of the conference, but this formula is the better way to go for the whole conference.

LRoss
10/20/2009, 10:44 AM
Completely disagree. Haven't we played in the MNC a couple times specifically because we scheduled tougher out of conference games?

It's almost impossible to go undefeated, but if you play a weak schedule and lose once you're done. Play a tougher schedule and you can absorb a loss.

Plus you're not a little school-girl!

Snyder Cyclone
10/20/2009, 12:22 PM
What I want to know is "how did the BCS put Arizona in it's top 25" ? Give me a break. Look at who they have played and beaten.

OK2LA
10/20/2009, 12:38 PM
The 800lb gorilla in the room is Pre-season rankings. ( . . . and ranking the teams in general - 1) based on last year's performance, 2) the program's reputation, 3) said team's current schedule, and 4) how the "pollsters" think they can handle it.)

Some say that it will take care of itself, and sometimes it does, but where a team starts out - has quite a bit to do with where they end up.

SoonerAtKU
10/20/2009, 12:43 PM
This would work, except that OU's strength of schedule last year put them in the Big XII championship game ahead of Texas or Tech. It sucks to lose a game, and it really sucks to have a star be injured, but if you remember, after the BYU loss people were talking about OU not being remotely out of the title picture.

You get the benefit of the doubt and a helping hand, all else being equal. I say play em tough and let the Kansas States and Texases of the world play the multi-directional schools.

rawlingsHOH
10/20/2009, 01:04 PM
What I want to know is "how did the BCS put Arizona in it's top 25" ? Give me a break. Look at who they have played and beaten.
Tough game at Iowa, but they haven't played very well, and against below average competition for the most part.

Collier11
10/20/2009, 01:13 PM
What I want to know is "how did the BCS put Arizona in it's top 25" ? Give me a break. Look at who they have played and beaten.

They would be 5-1 and 3-1 in conf if it werent for a bad call against UW that literally cost them the game

rainiersooner
10/20/2009, 01:13 PM
Playoff amongst the top 8; now more than ever.

Texas_Longhorn
10/20/2009, 01:20 PM
Carroll, who’s team took two long trips to the Midwest this season, has future series with Notre Dame, Virginia, Boston College, Texas A&M, Syracuse and Hawaii and is looking for more.
How are those opponents considered better than UCLA, Mississippi, and Cal?

Collier11
10/20/2009, 01:23 PM
Id say about the same, point is usc goes on the road to play good teams. Is ut going to do that?

TMcGee86
10/20/2009, 01:28 PM
OU is set up with dates with Ohio State, LSU, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, TCU and Tennessee over the next eight years. Carroll, who’s team took two long trips to the Midwest this season, has future series with Notre Dame, Virginia, Boston College, Texas A&M, Syracuse and Hawaii and is looking for more.

To equate these two is laughable. But it's Pete, so they are all big games.

SoonerAtKU
10/20/2009, 01:28 PM
Carroll, who’s team took two long trips to the Midwest this season, has future series with Notre Dame, Virginia, Boston College, Texas A&M, Syracuse and Hawaii and is looking for more.
How are those opponents considered better than UCLA, Mississippi, and Cal?

That's a very good point, as Notre Dame is the only one on that list who currently has a pulse, and that's not a game that USC is going to get out of at any point in the foreseeable future.

Position Limit
10/20/2009, 01:40 PM
who cares? schedule the best you can. if ou had won the three games they lost they would be ranked number #1 and the toast of college football. they were 5 points from doing it with a bunch of back ups. mack brown and texas are a bunch of pussies. they have to play 1 good team every year (OU) so mack can claim another 10 win season. i have zero interest in copying anthing texas does. it's embarassing. remember them backing out of a game with hawaii? va tech, oklahoma, usc and a very few other have the balls to go on the road and play the best they can get. mack brown stays at home and hangs 70 on the uteps of the world and then cries to the media and pleads for bcs mercy. no thanks.

boomer sooner

Collier11
10/20/2009, 01:52 PM
Lets all be honest here as fans, I am pretty sure most of us would be pissed if Joe C. scheduled 4 non conf games against patsies rather than throwing in a good team every yr.

SoonerAtKU
10/20/2009, 01:58 PM
Yep. Ticket prices are already rough. Imagine having to pay for 3 Idaho States every year?

soonerlaw
10/20/2009, 02:04 PM
I like our pre-season schedule, especially that series we had with Alabama several years ago, but man, this year you could tell it was going to be rough. Basically a road game to start the season, a trap game against a dangerous Tulsa squad and then traveling to Miami. I would have liked it better if BYU wasn't our first game and was in Norman.

Sasakwa
10/20/2009, 02:14 PM
Thats not a well written article.

I like how he conviently leaves Bama out of the discussion because they played a real team and won and therefore didn't fit his agenda. Nice to mention #1 and #3 in the BSC but leave out #2.

And shut up Carrol, quit losing to Standford and Washington and playing in a weak conference and your team can be ranked with the undefeateds.


While Bradford and Barkley were getting injured against physical non-conference opponents, quarterbacks for Florida and Texas, Tim Tebow and Colt McCoy, were watching long stretches of blowouts from the safety of the sideline

This would have been a better point if Tebow wouldn't have been injured this year. Injuries can occur again conference opponents, weak opponents, etc.

He says Carroll seeks out two or three powerful non-league opponents each season, then lists Notre Dame, Virginia, Boston College, Texas A&M, Syracuse and Hawaii as his examples? For starters I don't think ND is his decision, the rest of those suck. In contrast he says UT plays weaker teams and his examples? UCLA, Mississippi and Cal. Funny, 2 of those are in the Pac-10. Also funny, 2 of them were in the Top 10 at some point thise year. Good examples genius.

Then this gem (speaking of OU and USC):


They’d be best served joining Texas, Florida and the rest of the crowd

Um, no. It was the exact opposite of that suggestion that gave OU the tie-break over Texas moron.

cjames317
10/20/2009, 03:16 PM
Interestingly, the hornheads say they tried to schedule a quality opponent (hogs) but they backed out. Betcha the hornheads don't want any piece of the hogs now.

Sasakwa
10/20/2009, 03:27 PM
Texas did have the pigs on the schedule. Think it was a home-home and they already played in Austin and this year was supposed to be in Fayettville but Jerrah wanted them in his new stadium. Not sure how good Arkansas was when that schedule was made, which is another thing about that article. You can schedule a team now and when you play them 6 years later, they may be much better or much worse than they are now.

How long until Jerrah gets the RRS? Current contract goes through 2015, so I'd say probably 2016.

IronHorseSooner
10/20/2009, 03:37 PM
The mistake this year was scheduling a tough non-BCS team on the first game. To me, it's never a good idea to give the TCUs, Boise States, BYUs, Utahs, Fresnos, or East Carolinas of the world an entire off season to prepare for you. They have the talent to beat you, and sense they have almost no shot of getting to the MNC, they have nothing to lose. You (insert OU, Oregon, Michigan, VT, etc) have everything to lose, because you can get there. If you are going to schedule a team like that, do it the 2nd, or preferably 3rd game, where you have knocked off some of the off season rust.

SoonerAtKU
10/20/2009, 03:44 PM
Or schedule it at home*...

*note that this does not apply to Michigan. Sorry, Blue.

IslandSooner
10/20/2009, 03:48 PM
who cares? schedule the best you can. if ou had won the three games they lost they would be ranked number #1 and the toast of college football. they were 5 points from doing it with a bunch of back ups. mack brown and texas are a bunch of pussies. they have to play 1 good team every year (OU) so mack can claim another 10 win season. i have zero interest in copying anthing texas does. it's embarassing. remember them backing out of a game with hawaii? va tech, oklahoma, usc and a very few other have the balls to go on the road and play the best they can get. mack brown stays at home and hangs 70 on the uteps of the world and then cries to the media and pleads for bcs mercy. no thanks.

boomer sooner

^^^^THIS^^^^

silverwheels
10/20/2009, 04:00 PM
As long as the BCS is in place, there will be too much emphasis on going undefeated or having only 1 loss and not enough emphasis on being a good team who has proven its worth against a tough schedule. It's cowardly, but smart, to schedule cupcakes for your OOC slate to further reduce the chances of losing.

SoonerLB
10/20/2009, 04:01 PM
Playoff amongst the top 8; now more than ever.

The only way the question of who is best will ever be answered. For the most part anyway. ;) There will undoubtedly be some that will still question the outcome.

badger
10/20/2009, 05:47 PM
This is one of those years that a tough schedule killed us, but a tough schedule, as OU officials will be quick to point out if you ask, is what saved our title game aspirations in 2004 and 2008.

beer4me
10/20/2009, 06:14 PM
As long as the BCS is in place, there will be too much emphasis on going undefeated or having only EARLY 1 loss and not enough emphasis on being a good team who has proven its worth against a tough schedule. It's cowardly, but smart, to schedule cupcakes for your OOC slate to further reduce the chances of losing.

Fixed fer you

Dan Thompson
10/20/2009, 06:23 PM
We could play Cal Poly or Columbia.

Lott's Bandana
10/20/2009, 06:58 PM
UF hasn’t played a non-conference game outside the state of Florida since the BCS was created and had only two outside Gainesville in the past five seasons. The only major non-conference team on the long-term schedule is fading Florida State. The Gators will play South Florida in 2010 and 2015, but other than that, it’s straight sisters of the poor.

“I don’t plan on changing the way we schedule,” Meyer said last summer.




That little nugget speaks volumes about whether this program is truly a legitimate National Championship contender or simply a candidate campaigning for election.

Johnny Utah
10/20/2009, 07:05 PM
That little nugget speaks volumes about whether this program is truly a legitimate National Championship contender or simply a candidate campaigning for election.

I like the premise of your post, only there's one problem with it ... Florida has one 2 of the last 3 National Championship games, one of them against OU :(

rainiersooner
10/21/2009, 01:35 AM
I don't think it's just the BCS, because the BCS relies primarily on polls, with some adjustment for SOS. Either way, all the metrics are designed to reward winning over a season, as opposed to a playoff which is designed to reward the best team on the day or over several games. Think of it this way - where do you think OU and Texas would have been ranked if OU had beat Texas last Saturday by four points - say for example Brian Jackson had returned the INT to the house? Texas was 2, OU was 18 in the Coach's poll. Let's assume OU would jump Texas in that scenario (this is in itself problematic, because in order to do so, Texas would have to fall to the bottom of the line of one loss teams and OU would have to jump ahead of some one loss teams). But for argument's sake, say OU goes to 11 and Texas goes to 12. Even that is unfair, because if you beat the #2 team in the country, don't you deserve to crack the top 10? So fine, say OU is #9 after the Jackson pick 6. Does one play really make the difference between unranked and #9? How subjective is that? Hell, take it out of Jackson's hands. What if Colt McCoy just tripped before he could get to the side line to make the tackle? Are we really expected to believe that this is the difference between #9 and unranked? Is Texas Tech really "better" than OU for the want of one play? Houston? Oklahoma State? I don't care about OU in this argument. My point is that our entire system of judging winners and losers is so subjective it is a farce.