primetime43
9/23/2009, 01:31 PM
http://accuscore.com/zach-rosenfield
Oklahoma in National Championship Race
College football fans don’t always understand how the BCS works, who to root for and if it is good or bad when a team that beats you loses later in the season. Oklahoma fans are making this mistake by openly rooting against Texas, thinking the BYU loss to Florida State mattered and giggling at Nebraska’s misfortune.
Here is what Oklahoma fans need to focus on and understand:
1) If you are bummed, worried or concerned about the BYU loss to Florida State, don't be. It does not effect the Sooners. OU's loss to BYU was what it was and from a national point of view, it was more about no Bradford and Gresham than it was about the poor play.
2) Washington beating USC has a monumental effect on OU. It basically eliminates that Pac 10. Next step for Sooner fans is to root against Cal. After seeing their game, Cal is good, but not great. They are also soft at wide receiver and have trouble defending the pass. As for USC...they are o-u-t out.
3) The Big 10 could not be working out any better for OU. The Sooners needed USC to put a loss on Ohio State's books and they did. Ohio State is the team most likely to give Penn State a loss. Now with Michigan playing so well and Penn State having to travel to Ann Arbor, the probability of Penn State losing a game is even greater than AccuScore had projected.
4) Miami is the big dark horse. Usually a team like Miami could really mess up OU’s long shot hopes to get in as a one-loss team, but Oklahoma hit the jackpot by having Miami on the schedule. If Miami beats Virginia Tech, Oklahoma finds themselves in a showcase game against a team that will have a lot of hype. Win or lose, Miami should finish with at least nine wins. That will count for a lot in the computer polls late in the season.
5) Take a look at the teams in front of OU and it shapes up perfectly. Take LSU, Florida, Miss, Alabama and remember only one team can make it to the BCS title game. So eliminate three teams. OU will be ranked behind Miami and Texas, but gets to play them, so for sake of this argument eliminate two more. Also eliminate Boise State because of strength of schedule. That is the stuff OU had control over either directly or indirectly.
The variables to worry about are now Cal and Penn State.
5a) What if Ohio State wins out? They will not have enough in the computer polls. Let’s just say for argument sake both teams win out. Both teams will probably be a carbon copy of each other in the human polls with little to no separation. The gap between a one loss Ohio State and Oklahoma would be extremely small.
*Quick note on how the human polls work. Ranking does not matter. It is those points you see in the parenthesis that matter.It is all about the "points" you have. Those points are then converted into a percentage against the total points in the rankings pool.
Example: Texas is #2 in the Coaches Poll (1412) and Alabama is #3 (1355). While the gap between 2 and 3 is huge because it means in vs. out, when you convert those numbers into a percentage against the total points available...they are separated by just tenths of a percentage. This effectively neutralizes the rankings and puts a huge emphasis on the computers (despite them only counting for 1/3 for the formula).
6) For OU to win out, they will have to beat Miami, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Nebraska twice. All those teams will be ranked when OU plays them and will most likely finish the season ranked. Moreover, it is looks like Tulsa will play for a Conference USA Championship and blanking that offense will account for a lot.
7) Get conference pride. It is fine to hate Texas and not think much of Oklahoma State. But you need those teams to be good, specifically Texas. If you want to go to Pasadena, root for the media to treat Texas like idols and to put them on the pedestal because if OU beats them and has an identical record.... BYU, TUL, MIA > WYO, ULM, UTEP, UCF.
There is a lot of football left everybody, but as of today Big 12 vs. SEC is the strongest probability for the BCS title game. Cal and Penn State are the flies in the ointment. Root for USC to beat Cal to just get Cal out of the way. And Cal goes to Oregon who is showing signs of life.
Long way to go but this article makes me feel good about OUr chances.
Oklahoma in National Championship Race
College football fans don’t always understand how the BCS works, who to root for and if it is good or bad when a team that beats you loses later in the season. Oklahoma fans are making this mistake by openly rooting against Texas, thinking the BYU loss to Florida State mattered and giggling at Nebraska’s misfortune.
Here is what Oklahoma fans need to focus on and understand:
1) If you are bummed, worried or concerned about the BYU loss to Florida State, don't be. It does not effect the Sooners. OU's loss to BYU was what it was and from a national point of view, it was more about no Bradford and Gresham than it was about the poor play.
2) Washington beating USC has a monumental effect on OU. It basically eliminates that Pac 10. Next step for Sooner fans is to root against Cal. After seeing their game, Cal is good, but not great. They are also soft at wide receiver and have trouble defending the pass. As for USC...they are o-u-t out.
3) The Big 10 could not be working out any better for OU. The Sooners needed USC to put a loss on Ohio State's books and they did. Ohio State is the team most likely to give Penn State a loss. Now with Michigan playing so well and Penn State having to travel to Ann Arbor, the probability of Penn State losing a game is even greater than AccuScore had projected.
4) Miami is the big dark horse. Usually a team like Miami could really mess up OU’s long shot hopes to get in as a one-loss team, but Oklahoma hit the jackpot by having Miami on the schedule. If Miami beats Virginia Tech, Oklahoma finds themselves in a showcase game against a team that will have a lot of hype. Win or lose, Miami should finish with at least nine wins. That will count for a lot in the computer polls late in the season.
5) Take a look at the teams in front of OU and it shapes up perfectly. Take LSU, Florida, Miss, Alabama and remember only one team can make it to the BCS title game. So eliminate three teams. OU will be ranked behind Miami and Texas, but gets to play them, so for sake of this argument eliminate two more. Also eliminate Boise State because of strength of schedule. That is the stuff OU had control over either directly or indirectly.
The variables to worry about are now Cal and Penn State.
5a) What if Ohio State wins out? They will not have enough in the computer polls. Let’s just say for argument sake both teams win out. Both teams will probably be a carbon copy of each other in the human polls with little to no separation. The gap between a one loss Ohio State and Oklahoma would be extremely small.
*Quick note on how the human polls work. Ranking does not matter. It is those points you see in the parenthesis that matter.It is all about the "points" you have. Those points are then converted into a percentage against the total points in the rankings pool.
Example: Texas is #2 in the Coaches Poll (1412) and Alabama is #3 (1355). While the gap between 2 and 3 is huge because it means in vs. out, when you convert those numbers into a percentage against the total points available...they are separated by just tenths of a percentage. This effectively neutralizes the rankings and puts a huge emphasis on the computers (despite them only counting for 1/3 for the formula).
6) For OU to win out, they will have to beat Miami, Texas, Texas Tech, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Nebraska twice. All those teams will be ranked when OU plays them and will most likely finish the season ranked. Moreover, it is looks like Tulsa will play for a Conference USA Championship and blanking that offense will account for a lot.
7) Get conference pride. It is fine to hate Texas and not think much of Oklahoma State. But you need those teams to be good, specifically Texas. If you want to go to Pasadena, root for the media to treat Texas like idols and to put them on the pedestal because if OU beats them and has an identical record.... BYU, TUL, MIA > WYO, ULM, UTEP, UCF.
There is a lot of football left everybody, but as of today Big 12 vs. SEC is the strongest probability for the BCS title game. Cal and Penn State are the flies in the ointment. Root for USC to beat Cal to just get Cal out of the way. And Cal goes to Oregon who is showing signs of life.
Long way to go but this article makes me feel good about OUr chances.