I think the recession will end 2q 2010

[Jerk]

recovery will be a b*tch, though.

Seriously, have you thought about what happens if we bottom out and no growth comes after?

I think it is a real possibility.

Also notice that all of the debt the .gov is selling is on the short end. We are talking t notes that we have to pay back in less than 7 years....trillions worth.

Does anyone have any good news? OUr defense is supposed to be kick *** this year.

[StoopTroup]

When the going gets tough...the tough get going.

[Jerk]

When the going gets tough...the tough get going.

You ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming.

(Dalton is such a bad ***)

[1890MilesToNorman]

Even a tough guy can't beat

Print $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Print $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Print more $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

[Curly Bill]

I have a job.


...and I have no kids, so I'm not worried about passing on a massive deficit to them.

That's good news, right?

[Jerk]

Even a tough guy can't beat

Print $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Print $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Print more $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$


It's the 'credit swaps' with foreign central banks that are keeping us alive.

It's kind of like when a bunch of ivy league guys play kick the can.

I really figured our bond market would implode by now. Where are they getting all of this money?
\
Them asian people just sh*t cash, don't they?

[Jerk]

When the going gets tough...the tough get going.


I saw your thread at the shack.

I just want to say, I hate Goldman Sucks.

That's....well, that's it.

[Jerk]

Man, I'm so drunk, I forgot about all of the alt-a mortgages that are going to reset next year.

No recovery until 2012.

Sorry. My bad.

http://encinitastaxpayers.org/blog/media/blogs/b/monthly-mortgage-resets.jpg


Again, sorry everyone. You can put your credit cards back in your wallets.

Deflation, people. Not inflation. Not hyper-inflation. Deflation. Prepare thyselves.

[KC//CRIMSON]

Woo Hoo! Nothing like a truck driver jacked up on Wild Irish Rose! Yee Haw!

[Jerk]

Woo Hoo! Nothing like a truck driver jacked up on Wild Irish Rose! Yee Haw!

Blvd. Brewery Wheat Beer.

And I am not a truck driver. I am a construction materials relocation specialist.

[KC//CRIMSON]

Blvd. Brewery Wheat Beer.

And I am not a truck driver. I am a construction materials relocation specialist.


Boulevard? Schweet! thanks for supporting our local brewery.

A CMR Specialist? Okay Snowman, whatever you say.

[Jerk]

Boulevard? Schweet! thanks for supporting our local brewery.

A CMR Specialist? Okay Snowman, whatever you say.

When is the rebound coming, KC?

eta - I see you're still going through manopause. Why so down? Obama will wave his magic wand and everything will be okay!

[Curly Bill]

KC's been in the doldrums for a while now, I'm beginning to worry about him.

[Jerk]

KC's been in the doldrums for a while now, I'm beginning to worry about him.


I know. You'd think he'd be happy...with his socialist buddies running the country and all.

[Jerk]

I can't believe for a second I tried to be nice to this guy.

Hey KC - just remember, I'll still have a job after you've been reduced to flipping burgers at the local McD's

[Curly Bill]

I know. You'd think he'd be happy...with his socialist buddies running the country and all.

Thing is, I don't think it's going as well as he'd hoped. :D

[Jerk]

Thing is, I don't think it's going as well as he'd hoped. :D

Actually, I hope KC is doing fine. In fact, I hope he is uber wealthy. Someone's got to pay for my healthcare. The corporation I work for would be glad to shed that cost off unto the taxpayer.

You smart people that don't drive trucks...thanks!

[KC//CRIMSON]

When is the rebound coming, KC?

eta - I see you're still going through manopause. Why so down? Obama will wave his magic wand and everything will be okay!

Why are you asking me? You're the trucker driver who doubles as an economist and political analyst, right?

[beer4me]

Man, I'm so drunk, I forgot about all of the alt-a mortgages that are going to reset next year.

No recovery until 2012.

Sorry. My bad.

http://encinitastaxpayers.org/blog/media/blogs/b/monthly-mortgage-resets.jpg


Again, sorry everyone. You can put your credit cards back in your wallets.

Deflation, people. Not inflation. Not hyper-inflation. Deflation. Prepare thyselves.

Don’t matter according to the History Channel the:

Ancient Aztec Calendar
Ancient Sumerian Calendar
Ancient Egyptian Calendar
Ancient Chinese Calendar

And some others that escape me for now all say the world is gonna end Dec 24 2012 anyway.:D :D :D :D :D

Just my effn luck to was planning to retire about then with 36 yrs so I ain’t even gonna get my retirement dang:(

[Crucifax Autumn]

Hell, I can honestly say I don't care as long as I don't have to wait until the second quarter of next year to get a decent job. This 11% unemployment here blows chunks. And chunks is a dog!

[Chuck Bao]

If the economy claws out by 2Q10, it will be very good news.

A lot of economists are talking about a "W" shaped recovery. A short-turn spur from fiscal stimulus measures and restocking of inventories will fizzle. Commodity prices would rise in anticipation of economic recovery and that they would effectively kill off real extended recovery chances. Interest rates will begin rising next year as inflation re-emerges. The property market has further to fall, especially the commercial side and that will effectively bring down more commercial banks and more bailouts.

But, Jerk, don't worry so much about the bond market. The brokers pitching it are getting their fees. Wall Street didn't suddenly run out of shysters.

[jkjsooner]

Man, I'm so drunk, I forgot about all of the alt-a mortgages that are going to reset next year.

No recovery until 2012.

Sorry. My bad.

http://encinitastaxpayers.org/blog/media/blogs/b/monthly-mortgage-resets.jpg


Again, sorry everyone. You can put your credit cards back in your wallets.

Deflation, people. Not inflation. Not hyper-inflation. Deflation. Prepare thyselves.

I parked my 401k in pretty conservative investments about a year ago. Recently I've been wondering if I made a mistake the last few months. Each time I have those thoughts I think of the mortgage reset chart.

[soonerchris]

I live in riverside county in so calif. At one point we had the highest foreclosure rate in the u.s. In my track of homes or developments, out of 89 homes 57 were foreclosed. Our unemployment rate was high as the sky. I own a plumbing business and this last month it has started to pick up again. In this area I think we've hit our low. I believe 2nd qtr 10 we should see and feel a recovery. My 450,000 house is now 240,000. We have 19 foreclosed homes now. So people have money and the banks are lending. At least its smart mortages now

[Frozen Sooner]

If the economy claws out by 2Q10, it will be very good news.

A lot of economists are talking about a "W" shaped recovery. A short-turn spur from fiscal stimulus measures and restocking of inventories will fizzle. Commodity prices would rise in anticipation of economic recovery and that they would effectively kill off real extended recovery chances. Interest rates will begin rising next year as inflation re-emerges. The property market has further to fall, especially the commercial side and that will effectively bring down more commercial banks and more bailouts.

But, Jerk, don't worry so much about the bond market. The brokers pitching it are getting their fees. Wall Street didn't suddenly run out of shysters.

I'm hearing a lot of talk about the W lately as well. Leading indicators in general are looking good, but I'm not convinced that this really looks like a recovery until real wages and productivity numbers start ticking up. Real wages are going to be the big bitch of this one, particularly as unemployment hasn't started budging. I guess we'll see in about six months whether we're in a recovery or not-if unemployment isn't back below 7 or so, then we ain't in a recovery, we're just milking the market.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Actually, unemployment is VERY close to APPEARING to get better.

Note the caps. Sometime in August or so all the people who have been filing continued claims are going to start running out of extended benefits. Those people will drop off the "looking for work" list, thus creating the illusion that the unemployment rate is dropping. The reality is some voodoo bookkeeping that is a lie. The actual number of unemployed will continue to grow as layoffs continue at a slower rate without all those people who have dropped off the rolls being included.

At the same time, we will begin to hear stockholder reports claiming that productivity is up. Well, no shat sherlock! If the companies haven't resumed hiring and sales are up, "productivity" is up by definition since the remaining workers are carrying a heavier burden and have to keep their trap shut if they don't want to be fired or laid off like those before them.

At that point, the only real economic indicators are going to be overall sales, the homelessness rate, and the number of people in or waiting for public housing, AFDC, TANF, etc. And this time it's not just gonna be the inner cities and illegals/barely legals applying, nor will it be white trash trailer park people. This time it will be your former co-workers, neighbors, and friends.

I don't care which end of the political spectrum you come from, anyone can see that we need real economic recovery and not smoke and mirrors.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

if one defines recession as at least two consecutive quarters with negative growth, I think it's already over as of the second quarter of 09.

we may not feel it until 2010 - particularly the jobs market which will lag for at least 6 months, maybe a year.

[OklahomaTuba]

Now this is a fun report to read when your drinking...

by many metrics the economy is leaps and bounds away from anything remotely resembling a recovery
http://www.scribd.com/doc/17712435/The-End-of-the-End-of-the-Recession

[Frozen Sooner]

if one defines recession as at least two consecutive quarters with negative growth, I think it's already over as of the second quarter of 09.

we may not feel it until 2010 - particularly the jobs market which will lag for at least 6 months, maybe a year.

True, but "not recession" does not equal "recovery."

[Scott D]

Unemployment numbers tracked on a month to month always make me snicker a little. I mean gauging the overall job market based on "new" unemployment claims just seems like so 'solid' an indicator that the job market is solidifying and growing rather than continuing to decline at a high rate. :rolleyes: