Israeli Navy Prepares for Potential Attack on Iran's Nuclear Facilities

[CK Sooner]

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,532963,00.html

Two Israeli missile class warships have sailed through the Suez Canal, ten days after a submarine capable of launching a nuclear missile strike, in preparation for a possible attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

The deployment into the Red Sea, confirmed by Israeli officials, was a clear signal that Israel was able to put its strike force within range of Iran at short notice. It came before long-range exercises by the Israeli air force in America later this month and the test of a missile defense shield at a U.S. missile range in the Pacific Ocean.

Israel has strengthened ties with Arab nations who also fear a nuclear-armed Iran. In particular, relations with Egypt have grown increasingly strong this year over the “shared mutual distrust of Iran”, according to one Israeli diplomat. Israeli naval vessels would likely pass through the Suez Canal for an Iranian strike.

“This is preparation that should be taken seriously. Israel is investing time in preparing itself for the complexity of an attack on Iran. These maneuvers are a message to Iran that Israel will follow up on its threats,” an Israeli defense official said.

It is believed that Israel’s missile-equipped submarines, and its fleet of advanced aircraft, could be used to strike at in excess of a dozen nuclear-related targets more than 800 miles from Israel.

Ahmed Aboul Gheit, the Egyptian Foreign Minister, said that his Government explicitly allowed passage of Israeli vessels, and an Israeli admiral said that the drills were “run regularly with the full co-operation of the Egyptians.”

Two Israeli Saar class missile boats and a Dolphin class submarine have passed through Suez. Israel has six Dolphin-class submarines, three of which are widely believed to carry nuclear missiles.

[AggieTool]

Rut Row Rell Roy....

[batonrougesooner]

This could get interesting.

[JohnnyMack]

They'll hit them by the end of the year. From what I've read the Iranians have done a good job of hiding their facilities and making them tough to hit. Lots of underground stuff and lots of mobile stuff.

[CK Sooner]

Will they go in with ground troops also?

[JLEW1818]

I hope not...

[beer4me]

Will they go in with ground troops also?

Not a chance in hell.

They may put a few SF and Forward Controllers but no normal ground troops.

There is no ROI to do that.

[yermom]

it's nice to see the Isrealis playing nice with their neighbors :D

Iran should be ****ting themselves when the Saudis and Egyptians are chosing Isreal over them

[Sooner_Havok]

**** or get off the pot

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Obama will still be trying to talk to them as Israel is taking care of business. Why Oblahma hasn't put the hammer down after Iran dissed him - got no clue. He is a wimp IMO.

To recall a song from my youth...Bomb, Bomb, Bomb - Bomb, Bomb, Iran.

[Sooner_Havok]

Obama will still be trying to talk to them as Israel is taking care of business. Why Oblahma hasn't put the hammer down after Iran dissed him - got no clue. He is a wimp IMO.

To recall a song from my youth...Bomb, Bomb, Bomb - Bomb, Bomb, Iran.

Cause two wars are already causing us enough problems?

[JohnnyMack]

Obama will still be trying to talk to them as Israel is taking care of business. Why Oblahma hasn't put the hammer down after Iran dissed him - got no clue. He is a wimp IMO.

To recall a song from my youth...Bomb, Bomb, Bomb - Bomb, Bomb, Iran.

Israel needs to do its own thing. Deal with their own issues. I think we've given them more than enough support financially and militarily. I say kick 'em out of the nest and see if they can fly. I'd rather **** away our money on our own people here at home than continue pouring gas on the middle eastern fire.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Israel needs to do its own thing. Deal with their own issues. I think we've given them more than enough support financially and militarily. I say kick 'em out of the nest and see if they can fly. I'd rather **** away our money on our own people here at home than continue pouring gas on the middle eastern fire.

Can't argue with that (and Havok's sentiments) - Bush has severely limited our options by going into Iraq. Hell Sadam may have held Iran in check...However, we can't afford to let Iran go nuke. Seems like many will let Israel to the dirty work and then quietly thank them afterwards...

[beer4me]

Obama will still be trying to talk to them as Israel is taking care of business. Why Oblahma hasn't put the hammer down after Iran dissed him - got no clue. He is a wimp IMO.

To recall a song from my youth...Bomb, Bomb, Bomb - Bomb, Bomb, Iran.


Loved that song. Long story I won't get into details but I taught Iranian Techs the F-14 hydraulics system back in the day.

Had one student that really liked me and he gave me a IIAF sticker and it looked really kool....so I stuck it to my tool box.

Fast forward after I got out of the Navy I went to Aeronautical School in Tulsa 1979. In November of that year you know what happened.

Had a bunch of rednecks see the sticker on my tool box. HE NO LIKEY. He put a pipe to my head.

ME REMOVED STICKER. I figured it was easier to remove the sticker from the tool box than the pipe from you know where he intended to put it:D

About that time the song came out.

[Curly Bill]

Loved that song. Long story I won't get into details but I taught Iranian Techs the F-14 hydraulics system back in the day.


You one of those that sabotaged those F-14's on our way out?

[beer4me]

You one of those that sabotaged those F-14's on our way out?

Funny you should ask.

[Curly Bill]

Funny you should ask.

You have a collection of F-14 parts in the garage? :D

I had a Top Secret SCI clearance, you can tell me. :D

[Sooner_Havok]

Go Team Kosher!

[iwannabelikesam]

It all depends on the assets Israel has in Iran. Israel is much more capable with its HUMINT than we are. Israel was able to successfully destroy the Iranian-financed Syrian nuclear facility being built by the North Koreans a couple years ago. Israel had HUMINT from within the facility, either a worker they were able to turn or a spy they were able to insert.

But that was just one location. I really doubt Israel will strike the nuclear sites in Iran unless they are extremely confidant they know of all the locations and are able to reach them. If/when it happens, I think it will be a mix of bombing of sites as well as acts of sabotage for the deeply buried facilities that are supposedly out of reach of bunker-busters.

[beer4me]

You have a collection of F-14 parts in the garage? :D

I had a Top Secret SCI clearance, you can tell me. :D

Sorry had to go do somethings didn't finish my post.

No I didn't sabotage any aircraft. Remember I was active duty back then and any act of sabotage on a military base of a foreign country is a act of war.

For all those reading that were in the Navy during the cold war knows that anytime a Russian Bear flew over any Naval group we had at least 3 fighter planes in the air escorting the Bears.

Even the act of just opening the bomb bay doors is considered a act of war. If the Bear even opened the bomb bay doors while over a Naval group would get it shot down without further permission.

Same with sabotage, no active duty people could be involved in that act. Without the risk of that country declaring war on the offending country.

But I do know who did and helped teaching this group what was the quickest way to disable the aircraft.

Also it was not really the F-14 we wanted disabled because the US froze all support to the aircraft at the fall of Iran. Those planes without parts would have been useless after only a few months.

What we wanted disabled was the Phoenix missile system.

The group that actually done the work was a group I cannot call out but the middle inital is I.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. happened to let Israel "borrow" quietly a couple of our high tech solutions to see how they really work...

[Howzit]

:les: L'chaim!

[beer4me]

Israel needs to do its own thing. Deal with their own issues. I think we've given them more than enough support financially and militarily. I say kick 'em out of the nest and see if they can fly. I'd rather **** away our money on our own people here at home than continue pouring gas on the middle eastern fire.

Sorry JM but your are clueless as to what you are talking about.

[JohnnyMack]

Sorry JM but your are clueless as to what you are talking about.

It's my opinion. It isn't eligible for an up or down vote by you.

[beer4me]

It's my opinion. It isn't eligible for an up or down vote by you.

That be right it is your opinion and your opinion it is, just pointing out your opinion is based upon no background or inside information.

So it's all kewl stand by that opinion.

[Sooner_Havok]

That be right it is your opinion and your opinion it is, just pointing out your opinion is based upon no background or inside information.

So it's all kewl stand by that opinion.

I kind of like his opinion, and wish to subscribe to his newsletter. Israel is not the 51st state. We don't owe them anything. Not saying I ain't rooting for them, but I think it is time for them to be big boys and fight their own wars, literally.

[Half a Hundred]

If Israel does anything at this point, it will be clear that their interests in the region no longer align with the United States.

[Curly Bill]

It will certainly be clear that they plan to ignore Obama. Sounds like they're on the right track.

[beer4me]

It will certainly be clear that they plan to ignore Obama. Sounds like they're on the right track.

This^

How dare those igjits to protect their own country, effn I am calling the ACLU.

[picasso]

I kind of like his opinion, and wish to subscribe to his newsletter. Israel is not the 51st state. We don't owe them anything. Not saying I ain't rooting for them, but I think it is time for them to be big boys and fight their own wars, literally.

I disagree. They are our allies so we own them a little bit.

[Half a Hundred]

This^

How dare those igjits to protect their own country, effn I am calling the ACLU.

I don't disagree. I just think it would serve the US more for Israel to not attack Iran and shut down the Iranian opposition, especially as the 40th day since the start of the unrest approaches.

Israel, on the other hand, might find the uncertainty around Iran's nuclear material in a revolutionary context to be unacceptable. That's perfectly reasonable, and in their best interests. It's not in the US best interests, as a popular overthrow of the current system there may allow for a better trade relationship with Iran. That would help us out, and in a huge way help the GWoT out, as we would be able to take a harder line on the Saudis insofar as the funding and dissemination of radical Wahhabi Islam (where bin Laden and many other terrorists find their inspiration). Not only that, but elimination of the current Iranian leadership through popular revolt leads to the undercutting of funding toward Hamas and Hizbollah, which would certainly help the peace process in Palestine/Israel.

However, it is not unreasonable to think that Israel has a real and pressing concern that the current leadership wouldn't go down without a parting shot, perhaps a dirty bomb in Tel Aviv or something like that (Jerusalem being out of the question as a holy site in Islam). Therefore, I wouldn't blame them for their actions, but in a strictly self-interested fashion, it would strongly differ from the interests of the United States.

[beer4me]

I don't disagree. I just think it would serve the US more for Israel to not attack Iran and shut down the Iranian opposition, especially as the 40th day since the start of the unrest approaches.

Israel, on the other hand, might find the uncertainty around Iran's nuclear material in a revolutionary context to be unacceptable. That's perfectly reasonable, and in their best interests. It's not in the US best interests, as a popular overthrow of the current system there may allow for a better trade relationship with Iran. That would help us out, and in a huge way help the GWoT out, as we would be able to take a harder line on the Saudis insofar as the funding and dissemination of radical Wahhabi Islam (where bin Laden and many other terrorists find their inspiration). Not only that, but elimination of the current Iranian leadership through popular revolt leads to the undercutting of funding toward Hamas and Hizbollah, which would certainly help the peace process in Palestine/Israel.

However, it is not unreasonable to think that Israel has a real and pressing concern that the current leadership wouldn't go down without a parting shot, perhaps a dirty bomb in Tel Aviv or something like that (Jerusalem being out of the question as a holy site in Islam). Therefore, I wouldn't blame them for their actions, but in a strictly self-interested fashion, it would strongly differ from the interests of the United States.


As one of my Israeli FMS customers said to me not a year back..”You live in a very large country with no enemies surrounding you, you don’t understand our situation.

[Sooner_Havok]

I disagree. They are our allies so we own them a little bit.

We owe them nothing more than our NATO allies. If invaded, we will defend. If they invade, good luck guys, I really mean it, but you're on your own.

[picasso]

We owe them nothing more than our NATO allies. If invaded, we will defend. If they invade, good luck guys, I really mean it, but you're on your own.

Well they are our allies in a place where we need one. Totally disagree.

[Boomer Mooner]

Just the threat is going to stir it up in Iran and make it more uncomfortable for the powers that be there. I think it serves our interest pretty damn well. The Iran leadership has been getting pretty cute lately and playing nice obviously doesn't make much of an impression with them.

[Half a Hundred]

As one of my Israeli FMS customers said to me not a year back..”You live in a very large country with no enemies surrounding you, you don’t understand our situation.

Understanding their situation is one thing. At the same time, I'm an American, and I want the United States' interests advanced without any question. This can cause conflicts, that's for sure.

[olevetonahill]

We owe them nothing more than our NATO allies. If invaded, we will defend. If they invade, good luck guys, I really mean it, but you're on your own.

bro WE created that country as a Refuge And Promised to Defend
So yea we OWE EM;)

[CK Sooner]

The Parties of NATO agreed that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all. Consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence will assist the Party or Parties being attacked, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.

Edit: Nevermind, they are not in Nato.

[yermom]

bro WE created that country as a Refuge And Promised to Defend
So yea we OWE EM;)

i still think that was a little strange

we should have given them part of Germany or Utah or something

[OklahomaRed]

Sorry JM but your are clueless as to what you are talking about.

Didn't take you long to figure that one out. :D

[OklahomaRed]

I kind of like his opinion, and wish to subscribe to his newsletter. Israel is not the 51st state. We don't owe them anything. Not saying I ain't rooting for them, but I think it is time for them to be big boys and fight their own wars, literally.

That's about the most stupid thing I've ever heard. Let's bring it down to your level. Say, I'm your next door neighbor and I'm an a*ss. I regularly throw my trash over your fence, I taunt your wife when she tries to tan in the back yard, I throw rocks at your car when you drive by, and I keep several dozen junked up cars in my front yard and part of your front yard.

You come over to my house and knock on my door. You ask me politely to please clean up my mess in your yard, quit hitting on your wife, and quit dumping my garbage over your fence. I tell you to p*iss off, and if you come back over to my house I'm going to use my shotgun (that I purchases off my dealer) to shoot you right in the f***ckin head.

Now, I'm Iran and you (the neighbor) is Israel. Do you have the right to call big brother the police or your lawyer to assist you in your dispute, or do you take your chances and come over to my house, or better yet, start throwing my crap back over the fence and start hauling off junk personally?

The world is not different than your own back yard. Until you "doves" realize the world is full of bullies who need to be kept in their place, the better the world will be. I'm not saying the USA should be the world's policeman, but we dang sure should not be a bunch of sniveling cowards!! :twinkies:

[JohnnyMack]

It's not about cowardice, it's about understanding we're NOT a global policeman.

I have no problem with Iran getting punched in the nose, I just don't think Israel is completely and totally innocent in all this.

Oh and, America. **** yeah!

[OklahomaRed]

If not the U.S. then who? Who stops Iran from advancing their beliefs on others in the region? Who stops Sadam from bullying his neighbors? Russia? There's a positive move for the U.S. The European Union? Please, what a bunch of sniveling has beens. China? They're too busy taking over the world's economy.

I'm all for not helping muslim states that don't want to help themselves; however, Israel is a different story. If we allow Israel to fall, then we all better start stockpiling food and ammunition. :D

[yermom]

i think Isreal has apparently already taken it up with the neighborhood association ;)

if they want the "holy land" they are going to have to defend it... retards have been fighting over that **** hole for thousands of years

[beer4me]

I have no problem with Iran getting punched in the nose, I just don't think Israel is completely and totally innocent in all this.


Exactly what are you talking about?

Guilty of what?

Do you really think Israel supplied Iran with any materials/manpower/technology/money/parts/equipment..etc
to help Iran build this nuclear facility?

A facility that Iran would quickly as possible use to end up making nuclear weapons.

Weapons that Iran would use against Israel in heartbeat!!

Just how is Israel involved or causing Iran to build this nuclear facility?

Doode do you not know even the ARABS are behind Israel on this, they are scared crapless also.

P.S.
YOU SHOULD BE TOO:eek:

[MojoRisen]

There are 70 million plus people I believe in Iran, you would want to make sure that they are on board. Isreal has no choice in my opinion but to prepare for war with Iran. If Iran wants to be cute and make threats - people may take them seriously. If Russia wants a seat at Nato or the head chair- they need to stop supplying the technology. Iran's current regime and many others have proven to not be trusted. What effect would this have on oil prices and wall street?

If they can hit the facilites and can handle a military retaliation I say go for it. As long as 35 million Iranians don't just try to join the fray! Bloody fray

[badger]

I would love for there to be Middle East peace, but I think we all know that the Holy Land area is doomed to forever being the center of conflict.

[SoonerProphet]

Any attack on Iran would effectively end any hope the reformists have of making any politicl hay. It is not the attack that is so concerning, but the effects it would have on the geopolitical and economic environment.

[Boomer Mooner]

Any attack on Iran would effectively end any hope the reformists have of making any politicl hay. It is not the attack that is so concerning, but the effects it would have on the geopolitical and economic environment.

The threat alone is probably helping the reformists. I think they are getting sick and tired of having to pay for the way their leaders are acting like arrogant bullies.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Any attack on Iran would effectively end any hope the reformists have of making any politicl hay. It is not the attack that is so concerning, but the effects it would have on the geopolitical and economic environment.

I don't think we need to worry, they aren't getting any traction. The hardliners are purging the Ministries as we speak and pulling more and more revolutionary and more unpredictable. My concern, would Russia enter if someone decides to do something about Iran nuke program. Most of Arabia is happy to turn the head away and do nothing if someone takes out Iran. The Qatari's are very afraid of Iran and what they may do to disrupt business and their shared gas field (largest in the world). Anything done to stabilize the region they would be happy about.

[JohnnyMack]

Exactly what are you talking about?

Guilty of what?

Do you really think Israel supplied Iran with any materials/manpower/technology/money/parts/equipment..etc
to help Iran build this nuclear facility?

A facility that Iran would quickly as possible use to end up making nuclear weapons.

Weapons that Iran would use against Israel in heartbeat!!

Just how is Israel involved or causing Iran to build this nuclear facility?

Doode do you not know even the ARABS are behind Israel on this, they are scared crapless also.

P.S.
YOU SHOULD BE TOO:eek:

Yes. I think Israel supplied materials/manpower/technology/money/parts/equipment..etc to Iran to make bombs.

[beer4me]

Half I can appreciate what you are saying “I think” but got lost in your logic. So just so I am not misunderstanding what you are saying I will make some comments here and if I misunderstood your post I apologize but I do want to be clear on what you are saying.


I don't disagree. I just think it would serve the US more for Israel to not attack Iran and shut down the Iranian opposition, especially as the 40th day since the start of the unrest approaches.

Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear programs may or may not help or stop the opposition; nobody can say either way for sure. Remember Ahmadinejad and his regime was already on thin ice before the election an attack by Israel may in fact pizz the Iranians that were on the fence and afraid to do or say anything about him and his regime be knocked off that fence.



It's not in the US best interests, as a popular overthrow of the current system there may allow for a better trade relationship with Iran. That would help us out,


Sorry you lost me completely on this argument. On one hand you say it’s not in the best interests of the US and yet go on to say “may allow for better trade…that would help us out”

Don’t follow the logic because either way the opposition manages to overthrow the current regime or Israel manages to do it by attacking either way it goes down we still win in the trade and better relationship with them.

Sorry but you say "Not in best interest" yet go on to say "help us out"?



and in a huge way help the GWoT out, as we would be able to take a harder line on the Saudis insofar as the funding and dissemination of radical Wahhabi Islam (where bin Laden and many other terrorists find their inspiration).

Neither the Saudi government nor the Fahd family have anything thing to do with funding/supporting Hamas/Hezbollah. In fact neither would allow Osama back into the country because even they thought he is crazy. Also note that the Saudi’s are some of the most well off people on earth, and not just the ruling elite. They like making that money and all that crap is very counterproductive to that end.

Also you should note that we are in bed with the Saudi’s and US companies have made millions off them, also the US Government has supplied them with very much technology. Need to Google Boeing and several others and see how much money has been made off the relationship. (See E3 AWAC for example).



Not only that, but elimination of the current Iranian leadership through popular revolt leads to the undercutting of funding toward Hamas and Hezbollah, which would certainly help the peace process in Palestine/Israel.


Don’t matter if the current regime falls either to popular revolt or Israel helps out and it causes a saner regime to come to power the world wins either way.



but in a strictly self-interested fashion, it would strongly differ from the interests of the United States.

No the interests are the same only the vehicle which gets us to that end differ.

[beer4me]

Yes. I think Israel supplied materials/manpower/technology/money/parts/equipment..etc to Iran to make bombs.

In the words of the infamous G. Gordon Liddy “I refuse to battle wits with an unarmed man”

[CK Sooner]

http://i658.photobucket.com/albums/uu306/adrianeade/50calsupprise.jpg

[JohnnyMack]

In the words of the infamous G. Gordon Liddy “I refuse to battle wits with an unarmed man”

I also believe G. Gordon Liddy supplied arms to the Iranians.

[MojoRisen]

Hey man, Isreal already did same in Iraq right, I don't question them when they make threats. At least they are giving fair warning and wearing Uniforms for the most part. Also directing the threat right at the facilities and not the people.

The dude saying that he would like to wipe isreal off the face of the earth - and at the same time trying to acquire Nuclear weapons is asking for it.

[yermom]

Half I can appreciate what you are saying “I think” but got lost in your logic. So just so I am not misunderstanding what you are saying I will make some comments here and if I misunderstood your post I apologize but I do want to be clear on what you are saying.



Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear programs may or may not help or stop the opposition; nobody can say either way for sure. Remember Ahmadinejad and his regime was already on thin ice before the election an attack by Israel may in fact pizz the Iranians that were on the fence and afraid to do or say anything about him and his regime be knocked off that fence.



Sorry you lost me completely on this argument. On one hand you say it’s not in the best interests of the US and yet go on to say “may allow for better trade…that would help us out”

Don’t follow the logic because either way the opposition manages to overthrow the current regime or Israel manages to do it by attacking either way it goes down we still win in the trade and better relationship with them.

Sorry but you say "Not in best interest" yet go on to say "help us out"?



Neither the Saudi government nor the Fahd family have anything thing to do with funding/supporting Hamas/Hezbollah. In fact neither would allow Osama back into the country because even they thought he is crazy. Also note that the Saudi’s are some of the most well off people on earth, and not just the ruling elite. They like making that money and all that crap is very counterproductive to that end.

Also you should note that we are in bed with the Saudi’s and US companies have made millions off them, also the US Government has supplied them with very much technology. Need to Google Boeing and several others and see how much money has been made off the relationship. (See E3 AWAC for example).



Don’t matter if the current regime falls either to popular revolt or Israel helps out and it causes a saner regime to come to power the world wins either way.



No the interests are the same only the vehicle which gets us to that end differ.

if Isreal strikes Iran i think it's going to be hard to convice the people they hate Iwannajihad more than Isreal

[beer4me]

if Isreal strikes Iran i think it's going to be hard to convice the people they hate Iwannajihad more than Isreal

You may have a point but I have been there and many people also will think Iwannajihad (great take BTW) brought this hell upon them too.


It will interesting to see how this plays out.

[MojoRisen]

My understanding is we also made it pretty clear with Tatical Nuclear War head capabilities in the region- when they were training insurgents and providing jacked up IED's to them. Sometimes you got to show and leave the pieces on the board.

If I were Iranian, I would be pretty damn scared of my leadership picking a fight that they ultimately will not win.

[Half a Hundred]

Half I can appreciate what you are saying “I think” but got lost in your logic. So just so I am not misunderstanding what you are saying I will make some comments here and if I misunderstood your post I apologize but I do want to be clear on what you are saying.

No problem, I appreciate the forthright response


Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear programs may or may not help or stop the opposition; nobody can say either way for sure. Remember Ahmadinejad and his regime was already on thin ice before the election an attack by Israel may in fact pizz the Iranians that were on the fence and afraid to do or say anything about him and his regime be knocked off that fence.

Most analysts and experts on the region (sorry, can't dig up the documentation right now) agree that a foreign attack on Iranian soil is the only thing that could deflate the whole revolutionary impulse at this moment. There are many reasons for this, but primarily, it lends credence to the idea that the unrest were all foreign intel ops meant to destroy the Islamic Republic. While that doesn't seem like a terrible thing to us, it's wise to remember that the Revolution in 1979 wasn't so much about oil money or the oppressive government of the Shah (the theocracy has been much more repressive), it was mostly about the influence foreign countries had within Iran, a proud 3,500 year old culture. If the man on the street begins to believe that this actually was provoked by foreigners, then the whole movement collapses. That's why, even as many of you disagreed with him over it, President Obama had to be very, very careful in his wording in remarks on the unrest.

The second thing this would do is essentially force the regular army, as opposed to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, into Ahmadi's service, as they are bound by the constitution to defend the Islamic Republic against all aggression. The great hope of the uprising so far is that the army seems to be sympathetic toward the people. If that changes, things go downhill very quickly.

Finally, it is to be remembered that revolutions generally only include a very small percentage of the population of a country. If Israel were to attack Iran, those numbers could be easily overwhelmed by people swept up in a nationalist fury, not to mention those who have a legitimate outlet for their anti-Semitism.


Sorry you lost me completely on this argument. On one hand you say it’s not in the best interests of the US and yet go on to say “may allow for better trade…that would help us out”

Israel attacking is not in the US best interests, because it would essentially preserve the status quo, not to mention possibly further destabilize the region. The US is better served by a friendlier Iranian government, as normalized trade relations would lead to innumerable benefits, not the least of which is a lessened need to tolerate Saudi Arabia's insistence on spreading Wahhabi Islam, the source of much of radical Islamist terrorism. Likewise, if Iran's current government goes down, it takes Hizbollah and much of Hamas with it.

Obviously, that's good for us. Unfortunately, that's not so good for Likud in Israel; they were mostly elected on a platform of taking a hard line on the Palestinian/Lebanese groups. If these groups are eliminated, electoral victory becomes much more difficult. There is also the very real threat of the theocracy taking a parting shot at Israel by detonating a dirty bomb or some sort of device like that in Tel Aviv, or another major city.


Don’t follow the logic because either way the opposition manages to overthrow the current regime or Israel manages to do it by attacking either way it goes down we still win in the trade and better relationship with them.


Israel won't overthrow the current regime. Not only would that be extremely difficult and logistically very complicated, that would also require a full-scale land war. Needless to say, not a whole lot of Israelis would be very excited at that prospect. Likewise, that would essentially be the trigger for another full-scale Middle Eastern war - the rhetoric in the Arab street has always been that Israel was an imperialist nation, and in this action, they would have demonstrable proof.

Israel would be fully served in its objectives by merely bombing the sites. As we saw earlier, however, the consequences would not be in the United States' best interests.


Sorry but you say "Not in best interest" yet go on to say "help us out"?

The revolt leading to regime change, not an Israeli strike.


Neither the Saudi government nor the Fahd family have anything thing to do with funding/supporting Hamas/Hezbollah. In fact neither would allow Osama back into the country because even they thought he is crazy. Also note that the Saudi’s are some of the most well off people on earth, and not just the ruling elite. They like making that money and all that crap is very counterproductive to that end.

Also you should note that we are in bed with the Saudi’s and US companies have made millions off them, also the US Government has supplied them with very much technology. Need to Google Boeing and several others and see how much money has been made off the relationship. (See E3 AWAC for example).


That has been the classic tactic the Saudis have used with us this entire time - they won't let Osama back in because it's both a very good PR move, and he's politically threatening. The Sauds only tolerate their plutocrats; any that start to make moves toward political clout get taken care of very quickly (just like bin Laden did).

They only make as much money as they do because of the oil beneath their feet, and the fact that they are by far the most stable state in the region. They gained most of their current clout after the Iranian Revolution, as before then, the West had much more advantageous trade terms with the Shah's government. Aramco was somewhat of an afterthought until the '80s; it was the British-Iranian and US-Iranian petroleum companies that were the big dogs in those days.

It doesn't matter if we currently have many business agreements with Saudi Arabia; they're only useful to us because of the petroleum. The industrial production can easily be shipped off to other locations, and if the situation changed, no one would bat an eye to drop the Saudis like last week's lasagna. It's business; there's no personal relationship that can stand up to the bottom line. Do you think our leaders like having to be photographed kissing the Saudi dignitaries on the lips?


Don’t matter if the current regime falls either to popular revolt or Israel helps out and it causes a saner regime to come to power the world wins either way.

Israel won't help regime change in Iran. Period. It will only make the undecided populace support the government at a very critical period of time. That's not what we want to have happen. For the reasons listed above, it may be what Israel wants to have happen, with the difference being the reduced nuclear capacity.


No the interests are the same only the vehicle which gets us to that end differ.

If Israel attacks, the best case scenario is that the status quo of 5 months ago, with a crippled Iranian nuclear capacity and indefinite postponement of any Iranian reform movement, be the state of affairs.

The US would be much better served by a popular overthrow of the Iranian government, which lends legitimacy to whatever successor government arises. By the words in the Iranian street, that successor government would not be particularly anti-West or anti-American.

[yermom]

the other thing involved here is that the government controls the media. the population isn't guaranteed to understand why the Isrealis would have attacked

[beer4me]

Half

I agree with you on this fer sure:

The US would be much better served by a popular overthrow of the Iranian government, which lends legitimacy to whatever successor government arises.

But also as you stated above it is (at this point anyway) only a small ratio of people in the opposition. At least the verbal ones, we don't know how many more of the silent types there are that are just waiting for a time when they think they can speak/act.

But another thing that is problematic is that until the opposition can get the military behind their cause it will be all for naught. If they get their military behind them then all bets are off.

As you know attempts to overthrow any government have a very bad track record, those attempts fail much more than they ever succeed.

I am with you EVERYONE not just the US would be much better if a popular opposition won out, however I do not see it ever succeeding in this case.

Unless there are some other variables that come into play. i.e. Attacked by another group/country whatever that throws the country into such chaos’s that no one can longer stand it and causes them to unify.

Also I never said or implied that Israel if they did attack would overthrow the regime. What I said was above.^

Remember there are still many factions in Iran that still want to go back to Theocracy again.

As far as the revolution of 1979 you are only partially correct, YES they were tired of outside influence mainly OURS but Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was a MOSOB and he had several secret polices that kept the opposition down my kidnapping and murder and murder by the thousands over the years. He had spies all over the place and the smallest talk that even sounded seditious could get you arrested and killed.

Ayatollah Khomeini regime was oppressive but no not nearly to the extent of Pahlavi. That is why the 1978/1979 (remember it started in 78) rebellion was started by students that did not want to be muzzled and it became hugely popular by nearly everyone, also they also did have a rebel army that fought the regulars in the streets. The opposition army rounded up many of the regime members and executed them.

At this moment the opposition has none of that, maybe they will get a rebel army but not likely. This revolt at this point has no chance it is not organized nor does it have enough support to effective. Tomorrow that might change but as it stands now no.

Anyway great to discuss with someone whose opinion it based upon some knowledge and logical thinkn.

[MojoRisen]

I don't think everyone in Iran is kept in the dark. They all had access to internet and multimedia outlets that clearly they were up on- before the regime started smashing computers.

No small - peacefull revolt is going to keep Isreal from taking out nuclear facilities in Iran.

Iran simply can not have nuclear weapons, If isreal wants to hit those facilities I would think that most Iranians would not even know it happened- Everytime the facility goes up Isreal should be prepared to take it out - period. If Iran shot off some nukes it would not be directed at illegal military facilities - it would be at people.

So small revolt or not, word needs to keep getting out to the Iranian people that we will not tolerate Iran as a nuclear power in the region.

Non of the Arab states want that, and that is a big difference from when Iraq was shooting scuds at Tel Aviv.

No one in hell including Obama can tell Isreal what to do, when the Iranian government is threatning to wipe them off the face of the earth.

I am fine with them taking the lead on letting Iran know they are ready to fight and building there own coalition to fight if there is retaliation.

If Obama wants to do something about it, he needs to strike the deal with Russia to quit giving them the technology and or at least share all capabilities information they have on Iran.

[swardboy]

If Iran's ONE refinery were taken out, wouldn't that pretty well put them in the stone age?

[Half a Hundred]

Anyway great to discuss with someone whose opinion it based upon some knowledge and logical thinkn.

Thanks, and same to you. At this point, we will just have to see what history plays out to.

[StoopTroup]

You two better get a room. ;)

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[Half a Hundred]

You two better get a room. ;)

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Jealousy doesn't suit you... :P

[OU Adonis]

http://americandinosaur.mu.nu/archives/canadian_navy.jpg

[StoopTroup]

Jealousy doesn't suit you... :P

LOL. :pop:

[StoopTroup]

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Winner of 2009 Fishing Tourney ! ! !