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View Full Version : My take on our current forecast...



the_ouskull
3/12/2009, 11:29 PM
I wrote this as a reply to another thread, but it was way too long to add to another thread without it becoming a total thread jack, and, frankly, I didn't want anybody p*ssed at me for adding it to their thread, so...

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In regards to excuses...

The excuse now is, "this team's been making excuses (or, rather, having excuses made for them) all year long, so now the excuses ARE our excuses."

I've been saying it for a while now. At first, I was the bad guy. (Cue the "Scarface" reset...) Then, gradually, a few people started saying, "Well, maybe this Skull guy's on to something..." Now look at this "team." We haven't played a truly solid basketball game since... well, since WHEN, exactly? I mean, I honestly think you could make the argument that we haven't played a solid game since A&M at Collie Station. Maybe ISU in Ames. Maybe Baylor in Waco. Maybe Tech in Norman... but if that's the most recent solid game we've played, keep in mind, it was almost a month ago... Baylor in Waco was OVER a month ago. And now, looking back at our schedule, those wins over Purdue, USC, and Utah seem like they happened last SEASON, not last year.

This team, ESPECIALLY the guards, started reading their press clippings. Couple that with the fact that teams have caught on to the sad truth that we don't have a point guard on the roster that can play well, consistently, on both ends of the court for an entire game, and yeah, we've been exposed, basically. I'm seeing talk that people on here are sad that we're "probably" going to have to settle for a 2 seed. At this point, I think we're LUCKY to get a 2 seed. I'm thinking a 3 is more likely, and a 4 or 5 is more well-deserved. We've been getting by, both on the court AND in the polls, with the "Blake was hurt for their losses" excuse, but he's been back for how long now, and we still haven't put together a good, 40-minute effort since he's gotten back.

We're a team that will expose a poor to decent team's weaknesses, but we don't have a team that's capable of making a deep tournament run; something else I've caught H*ll for saying... Great players can, occasionally, put their team on their back and take them to a Final Four. (Think John Wallace in 1996...) Blake is a great player. But, when Blake is being doubled and tripled on every possession, someone else needs to have a good game. When Blake is being doubled by nobody taller than 6'6", he, in addition to somebody else, needs to have a good game.

Tonight, Blake had 17 points and 19 boards. A good game. However, he also, once again, led the team in turnovers with 5. We had 19 as a team. We only forced 10. Blake single-handedly had half as many turnovers as OSU did. That doesn't win games. Yes, he's a stud. Yes, he's (already) one of the greatest players to ever don the Crimson and Cream. But, I'm sorry... It needs to be said. He simply MUST do a better job of taking care of the basketball. It's great to see those 20/20 nights out of him, but I'd rather see a 10/10 night out of him with no turnovers at this point. Our guards are having a hard enough time handling pressure without Blake (and Juan, and Taylor, and...) finding another stat to keep leading the team in.

Also, since when did all of our guards turn b*tch end up at the same time?

vs. OSU: 15.8% on 19 shots. (52)
vs. OSU: 29.4% on 17 shots. (47)
vs. Mizzou: 22.2% on 18 shots. (60)

That's the last eight days of Sooner basketball. A total of 12 out of our last 54 3-pointers attempted have actually found the bottom of the net. That's an outstanding 22%. Yeah, 22%. I shoot a higher percentage than that from the free throw line left-handed. (I'm a righty.)

Also, what are the numbers in parentheses? I'm glad you asked. They're our total number of field goals attempted in each game. We're only shooting 22% from the arc in our last three games, yet, for some reason, even though we have arguably the best post player in the country on our roster, 34% of our shots have been three point attempts. One-third of our shots are threes, but we're hitting less than one-fourth of them. At what point do you have to shift blame from the players that couldn't hit sand if they fell off a camel to the coach that keeps letting them fire away from there?

Also, OSU, with only one starter taller than 6'5", came away with 7 offensive rebounds. That is unacceptable.

Crocker is KILLING this team. (How many 1-5, 2-8 nights are we going to settle for out of him?) He's shooting less than 40% from the field on the season, and over half of his shot attempts are 3's. He also has 57 turnovers on the season, compared to only 36 assists. When I compared him to the Invisible Man, I was hoping he wouldn't see it as a good thing. Maybe he watches Heroes, I don't know, but at this point, we might be a better team if Sylar catches up to him and decides he wants Crocker's power to disappear in games that mean something, if ya know what I mean.

Only half of the players in our top eight have more assists than turnovers on the season. Only two of those players start. None of them average more than 4 assists per game.

We're not getting good shots, and, when we are getting good shots, we're not knocking them down. Blake being beat to death and double and triple-teamed isn't a new development. It's been happening all season. The difference now, is, instead of driving the ball to the basket on the kick-outs, our guards are settling for jumpers. The only problem is, we don't have a single guard on the roster shooting better than 48% on the season... our starting point guard, our starting 3, and our lead reserve (AJ, Crocker, and Davis) are all shooting less than 42% on the year.

We are a decent-to-good basketball team right now, AT BEST. When our guards are knocking down their shots, and Blake isn't throwing the ball to the wrong-colored jerseys, we're a good-to-great team. But, at this point, we haven't been that team in at LEAST a month, maybe longer. I think the window on finding that team again may have closed. Right now, I'm seeing a second-round loss in the NCAA's... depending entirely on our draw. Two months ago, I'd have said Sweet Sixteen, MINIMUM. Now, if we get there, I'll be happy and quite surprised.

I hope that this team starts working hard again, 'cause this settling for "good enough" crap isn't going to cut it. "Aw shucks, I guess the shots weren't falling again tonight." What the sh*t is that? Play ball already, Sooners! If I'd have known you were only going to play half a season, I'd have politely asked you to play the SECOND half...

Bottom Line: We don't have any intensity on defense, and we don't have a true sense of urgency on offense. We're panicking and putting up the first decent shot instead of continuing to reverse the ball and consistently get GOOD shots.

And for those of you who want to say that I'm being Chicken Little and sh*t, it's not like I made any of this stuff up. We're a dominant post team that is settling for jumpers, and we play, basically a three-guard lineup that, somehow, still can't handle full court pressure. How is THAT a team that's going to make a deep run in the tournament?

the_ouskull

John Kochtoston
3/13/2009, 12:20 AM
If our guards had never shown the hint of the ability they need to have for this team to go deep, I'd shrug my shoulders and say "Man, blake really carried this team to a good run" when we bow out in the Sweet 16.

But see, there was a month or so there when our guards were at that level. That's what makes all of this so frustrating. We're a final Four team playing like Glass Joe (a second-round knockout).

OUstud
3/13/2009, 01:41 AM
I'm serious. I think we will lose second round, if not the first (which, if we're a 2 seed we'll be an answer to a trivia question :mad: ). This team doesn't have it. A month ago, they did. Then Texas at Austin happened. Damn you Pittman, you fat ****.

Cinco Ranch Cougar
3/13/2009, 07:04 AM
Great Post. Underachieving at it's best describes this team. No sense of urgency at either end is right on.
I don't see us getting past game 2.
Very disappointed.

kc sooner
3/13/2009, 07:45 AM
Great post and I agree with it, but I still just think we were overrated when we were winning games. Our guards are only as good as they are, and they aren't very good. If a team presses us we are in trouble, how many long, slow lob passes does Austin Johnson throw in a game when he is being pressured! That is the one thing that makes me really sick, and Blake does need to be better, and it seems he relaxes at times, especially on defense, he won't come out and help on a screen ever!

the_ouskull
3/13/2009, 08:32 AM
Agreed, to an extent. But, I refuse to believe that our guards were playing completely over their heads earlier in the year. As a unit (heh, heh... he said "unit") they played, and beat, some very good guard teams. I mean, across the board, they're what, 6'1", 6'3", and 6'3"? (I'm aware that they're all listed taller, but I'm a realist...) We could post up Crocker against smaller guards. Ditto with Willie. That would park Blake at the high post, occasionally, allowing him to avoid double-teams more often, and, if they still DO double him in the high post, it opens up the low post for dribble penetration. Our problem is that our 3-guard lineup can't hit a jump shot to save their lives, and, for the most part, they've quit driving to the basket. So, teams just pressure us to make us give it up, and then pack down into a zone that our shooting as of late can't make pay.

It's 12 hours later, and I'm still mad about that game, and this team's play in general. Being up here in Cowsh*t Country isn't helping much, though...

the_ouskull

Pricetag
3/13/2009, 09:26 AM
We're a final Four team playing like Glass Joe (a second-round knockout).
Dude, it took you two rounds to beat Glass Joe?

NormanPride
3/13/2009, 09:28 AM
The guards suck, period. They always have sucked. They hit shots sometimes, but on average, they suck. AJ was finally playing well, and then his back went out on him again. Crocker has had a shot-ectomy, a brain-ectomy, and a defense-ectomy all in one season, and Willie has hit the freshman wall.

I am disappointed with the lack of imagination on offense, but perhaps our guards aren't good enough to execute anything else? I mean, do you really think Crocker can post anyone up? Do you think Willie can? That's a skill set that you have to develop as a guard.

My Opinion Matters
3/13/2009, 09:59 AM
The problem with this team seems pretty simple to me-- No one other than Wille Warren is capable of creating their own shot.

John Kochtoston
3/13/2009, 11:01 AM
Dude, it took you two rounds to beat Glass Joe?

I used to pretend I was Apollo Creed and mug for the camera for a round. :D

I was going to put Bald Bull, but I didn't know if anyone would get it.

wishbonesooner
3/13/2009, 11:06 AM
Looks like we will get a 2 seed. Problem is we aren't playing like one. Thank God we won't be getting that 1 seed, I'd hate to be the object of that trivia question, because I question our ability to beat anyone in the tournament.

TheBigRedMachine
3/13/2009, 03:47 PM
You brought up a lot of good points that I agree with. We are no where near a two seed right now, but with the right draw a 3 seed may be a benefit.

One of the (many) problems I had with the game last night was our offensive strategy. We went at Moses early in the game and he ended up getting 3 fouls in the first 9 or 10 minutes of the game and fouling out early in the second half. With all of this Blake only has 9 shots the entire game, are you kidding me???? He should have had 18 points by halftime and had upwards of 20 shots throughout the game.

Crocker has turned into a shell of his former self (can you be a shell of a shell?). I noticed on 3 separate occasions where he wasn't able to corral the defensive rebound, allowing OSU to get the ball back and hit threes off of the rebound. Also, if he doesn't have the ball he looks disinterested, and when he does have the ball and drives the lane, only bad things happen. I really think he needs to be the 6th man for this team.

Blake, Warren, and Crocker need to start playing better defense and not get screened off as easily as they (Warren and Crocker) do. I hate to say it too, but I think all of Eaton's talking got to Willie and he forced some things that he usually doesn't do. Willie's only a freshman and hopefully he will be able to learn from that in the future.

Our guards let anybody get in the paint and for some reason seem to really wear down towards the end of games. First Abrams, then Collins, then Anderson, and now Eaton. I don't know what the problem is, but I hope Capel and the rest of the coaches can get it fixed.

Also, if you want to beat this team, just start pressing the guards and they will certainly start to turn the ball over. That is what gets me, whenever AJ gets under pressure, he throws lob passes that are easily picked off. He has always done this so I don't have much hope that this will get fixed before the tourney and believe that it will eventually be our downfall and end up getting us knocked out.

the_ouskull
3/13/2009, 04:53 PM
I mean, do you really think Crocker can post anyone up? Do you think Willie can? That's a skill set that you have to develop as a guard.

Granted, but it's not too terribly difficult for anybody, from junior high on up, to post up someone who is unathletic and multiple inches shorter than you. (ie - Page... I don't think that Crocker, or Willie, or AJ would have to do a lot of work to back down Lil' Country...)

Or maybe I'm just a post-up guard, and I wish it on others... Lol.

the_ouskull

the_ouskull
3/13/2009, 04:58 PM
I've thought about it some more and it's official... Crocker has become my A.J.

He can't handle, he's not shooting well, and he's not anything other than a spot-up shooter anyway - mainly because of the handle issues. He's not strong enough to absorb contact, and he's not a good on-the-ball defender. I think that 6th man is being a bit, eh... generous. Until he shows Capel, et al.. that he's ready to be a baller again, I think we should start Cade, and bump Crocker down to the 7th spot...

BUT...

He would be able to do even less on the floor if he's playing with the second unit...

I had a similar problem on my high school boys team this year. We had a guy who probably shouldn't have been starting starting. We had to do it 'cause he wouldn't have been able to do anything with the second unit 'cause he can't do anything without it being set up for him. (Sound familiar...?)

the_ouskull

Pricetag
3/13/2009, 05:29 PM
I used to pretend I was Apollo Creed and mug for the camera for a round. :D

http://unrealitymag.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/punch-out-20081216021344134.jpg
He doesn't know it's a damn show. He thinks it's a damn fight!

"MVP"
3/13/2009, 05:50 PM
This very well could be our last shot for a title in a while as Blake is heading to the NBA as is Willie, and Taylor Griffin and Austin Johnson are seniors this year.

If we play our best, I'm confident that we could win a title. Blake, Willie, Taylor, Austin, everyone.

"MVP"
3/13/2009, 05:53 PM
This very well could be our last shot for a title in a while as Blake is heading to the NBA as is Willie, and Taylor Griffin and Austin Johnson are seniors this year.

If we play our best, I'm confident that we could win a title. Blake, Willie, Taylor, Austin, everyone.

"MVP"
3/13/2009, 05:54 PM
This very well could be our last shot for a title in a while as Blake is heading to the NBA as is Willie, and Taylor Griffin and Austin Johnson are seniors this year.

If we play our best, I'm confident that we could win a title. Blake, Willie, Taylor, Austin, everyone.

goingoneight
3/13/2009, 06:44 PM
Willie hasn't said he's going.

Rock Hard Corn Frog
3/13/2009, 06:57 PM
I generally agreee with this thread except.

I don't think the guards suck. When healthy AJ is far better than average and WW is a future NBA guard. I do think our guard play the last 2-3 weeks has been subpar. A lot of it is how much Crocker has struggled. Some is certainly tied to AJ's health. I think he is playing at about 85-90% which unfortunately has been a recurring instance in AJ's career. Leary has done pretty nice but he shouldn't have to be counted on as much as he had been. In football analogy sort of like Joey Halzle. A solid back-up but if he ever has to be The Man then it means drop-off. Not that I'm saying AJ is our equivalent of Bradford. That would be Blake.

I think we are a very good team just not a great team. I think a month ago the floor was the Sweet 16 and the ceiling was a Championship. Now I think the floor is a second round loss and the ceiling is probably Elite 8. After our start I think anything less than Final 4 would be a disappointment now.

"MVP"
3/13/2009, 10:01 PM
I think some members are overreacting. We have a great team, but Griffin has been hurt for a bit, and last night was a fluke. It is hard to sweep a team, and OSU came ready to play. We just need to toughen up for the playoffs.

the_ouskull
3/14/2009, 08:21 PM
This very well could be our last shot for a title in a while as Blake is heading to the NBA as is Willie, and Taylor Griffin and Austin Johnson are seniors this year.

If we play our best, I'm confident that we could win a title. Blake, Willie, Taylor, Austin, everyone.

I disagreed with this this first two times you posted it, but the third time convinced me...

No. No, it didn't.

If every single player in our rotation plays to the full extent of both their ability and their potential for six straight games, then yes, we could win it all. That hasn't happened at any point in this season. Why is it going to start happening now against tougher competition with less time between games to prepare?

Look, don't get me wrong, man, I want desperately to be wrong... I just don't think that I am.

the_ouskull

Eielson
3/14/2009, 10:29 PM
Crocker has had a shot-ectomy, a brain-ectomy, and a defense-ectomy all in one season

I wasn't paying attention to who was guarding who, but the announcer said Crocker was guarding Anderson most of the third game. Anderson's scoring went from 37 in the second game, down to 11 in the third.

oumartin
3/15/2009, 07:59 AM
What a joke of a thread. I've venture to say that if you wanna run your mouth about how good you are at shooting lefty free throws go ahead and step on the court against Croker. Cuz basically you are saying you are better than he is.. Putting your stats in a thread like you were some all american is weak.

Also, This team lost to Texas at home by 5, to a Texas team hungry for a win. They had to knock Blake out of the game to do this.

They lost their next game to Kansas. Collins was out of his mind and again we were without much inside presence. The guards had to carry this team while Blake was out and had to take most of the shots. Something we all said they needed to do in order to go on a deep run(be able to step up and hit shots). Now you are bitching cuz they take too many?

Blake comes back for Tech. They beat the same tech team that beat Kansas and the same Tech team that came from 22 down in the Big 12 tourney to win a game.

Lose to Missouri at home? Who hasn't lost to Missouri at home this year? One thing this team does have issues with is turnovers and this game those turnovers cost them a win probably.

Um, beat OSU at home. The same OSU team that had just won 6 games in a row.

Lose to OSU in OKC by 1. This game they did not play all that great and still had a chance to win. Teams have nights when they aren't playing well. This was one of them and yet they lose by 1. its very difficult to beat a team three times in one year.

Bottom line, during this little losing spell they have not lost to a team that won't be in the tourney.

It's basketball, it doesn't matter how good you are, you are gonna lose a game here and there. Certainly this team could get beat in the second round but this is still the team many experts picked to reach the final four and if they happen to click again they will do just that.

IronHorseSooner
3/15/2009, 09:13 AM
Marin, I absolutely agree with you. In addition, they held OSU to about 10 under their average. The biggest thing that has hurt them here recently is that AJ hasn't been the AJ he was for most of the season, and a big part of that is his back pain. He looks stiff and rigid. The second thing is that Crock looks like he's trying too hard, and rushing his shot. What Coach might look at doing is starting Cade in place of either one of them. Cade is a dead-eye sniper, and as far as we know, is healthy. Coach might look at letting Willie run the offense more. He's one of the most dangerous guys off the bounce in the country (right up there with Jonny Flynn, Tyreke Evans, and Williams from Louisville). Let AJ come off the bench. That would be two senior guards coming off the bench for us. Maybe with Cade as the primary deep threat, Crock won't be looking to force his shot, and Willie can be looking to create. Remember, Willie and Crock (and AJ for that matter) were recruited for their abilities to get the basket. Cade was recruited as a shooter. I don't know how well it would work, but it's worth a try.

the_ouskull
3/18/2009, 03:42 AM
What a joke of a thread.

Yet you felt compelled to keep reading... Can I call you a "joke of a poster?"

I've venture to say that if you wanna run your mouth about how good you are at shooting lefty free throws go ahead and step on the court against Croker. Cuz basically you are saying you are better than he is.. Putting your stats in a thread like you were some all american is weak.

Hardly. Also, he's got a few fewer years on his bones than I do... but that's neither here nor there. It's simply a matter of doing what you're supposed to do to win games. For teams on which I played to win games, my job was to ride the pine. I did it well. For the team on which Crocker plays to win games, he needs to do more than hoist up bombs without setting his feet. He also needs to '86' the "I don't like putting the ball on the floor" mentality. If he, or ANY player, makes themselves one-dimensional, they're a lot easier to guard. Right now, Crocker is a one-way threat, and he's not playing well as a result. Seeing as we need him to play well in order to be a good team, I'd say that his play is fairly crucial. He's been shooting very poorly, he's not a threat to go to the basket, and, during this slump, his defense has also suffered. That leads me to believe that it's a confidence thing, which is harder to fix than a hitch in a shot... although the fact that he hasn't made a noticeable improvement in his ability to put the ball on the floor consistently worries me a bit as well...

Also, This team lost to Texas at home by 5, to a Texas team hungry for a win. They had to knock Blake out of the game to do this.

Thank you for continuing to make excuses for this team. They're going to benefit from it in the long run, surely. Since when is ANY team not "hungry for a win?" You think that makes a d*mn bit of difference? "They really need this one.." So what? It's a rival game, a conference game, and a division game. Texas was, indeed, hungry for a win. We should have been too. I've never understood that excuse... Besides, saying that Pittman was hungry for ANYTHING isn't exactly Vitale-ian news reporting. I'm not even sure that Augustine went pro. It's quite possible Pittman ate him.

They lost their next game to Kansas. Collins was out of his mind and again we were without much inside presence.

Don't our guards guard him? Doesn't Crocker play guard, at least some of the time, anyway..? Just checking... Every player that gets to the basket at will and gets a few open perimeter looks will start getting "out of their mind," sir. Willie did it... in that same game. Then Kansas started closing out on him, and cutting off his lanes when he started driving. It's not a new concept, just a helpful one.

The guards had to carry this team while Blake was out and had to take most of the shots. Something we all said they needed to do in order to go on a deep run(be able to step up and hit shots). Now you are bitching cuz they take too many?

No. Not at all. I'm unhappy - disappointed, if you will, because they take poor shots, not too many shots. If you're shooting well from inside the arc, and poorly from outside the arc, a player should generally start looking to shoot closer shots and start trying to get to the rim to draw more fouls. Our guards, with the exception of Willie when his head's in the game, seem to do the exact opposite. AJ and Crocker both jack up the long ball indiscriminately. That's as good as a turnover 75% of the time that they do it as of late. Stepping up to fill the void left by a player lost to injury is one thing. What they're doing is not that thing. What they're doing is stepping up to shoot; not shoot well. There IS a difference.

Blake comes back for Tech. They beat the same tech team that beat Kansas and the same Tech team that came from 22 down in the Big 12 tourney to win a game.

Also the same Tech team that went 14-19 and lost to Lamar and UTEP? Just checking... When you beat a few junior high teams, it's not considered a "quality win." When you lose to them, it's even worse. The fact that they also beat Kansas says a lot more about Kansas' inconsistency than it does Tech's "star power" that you're trying to assign them.

Lose to Missouri at home? Who hasn't lost to Missouri at home this year? One thing this team does have issues with is turnovers and this game those turnovers cost them a win probably.

Turnovers have cost us for than "a win probably." They've cost us a great deal, and will continue to do so unless we also start forcing turnovers. Something that we currently rank 299th in the country at doing according to McPaper; the USA Today.

Um, beat OSU at home. The same OSU team that had just won 6 games in a row.

...and the same OSU team that doesn't start a single player over 6'6". It's not like we didn't know they were going to press, trap, and double/triple Blake, yet we still looked vastly unprepared for it. Congrats on their big winning streak though. Nice of us to continue it.

Lose to OSU in OKC by 1. This game they did not play all that great and still had a chance to win. Teams have nights when they aren't playing well. This was one of them and yet they lose by 1. its very difficult to beat a team three times in one year.

The reason they had a chance to win was because they didn't play to win in the first place. If this OU team plays even sort of consistent basketball, they kill; KILL, teams like OSU. We seem to have a tendency, especially as of late, though, to play to the level of our competition instead of displaying the killer instinct that takes teams to championships. And the "three times in one year" thing is a cliche more so than reality. If we played Baylor three times a year in football, I don't think anybody would be worried. If anything, the more we play OSU, the BETTER we should do because we've got better talent, top-to-bottom, and we are more well-coached... right?

Bottom line, during this little losing spell they have not lost to a team that won't be in the tourney.

No doubt. But, we're not trying to be a tourney team. We can do that with Blake blindfolded and all of our guards playing with one hand tied behind someone ELSE's back. We're trying to be a team that can do some damage in the tournament... Right? I don't know about you, but I don't want for this team to be content with making the tournament and then allowing fans to make excuses for them when they bow out early... I want this team killing teams the way they're capable of doing; the way they're built to do. They're not doing this. Lately, they're not even a threat to do this...

It's basketball, it doesn't matter how good you are, you are gonna lose a game here and there.

You forgot to add, "Sincerely, Indiana, 1976 to the end of that statement...

Certainly this team could get beat in the second round but this is still the team many experts picked to reach the final four and if they happen to click again they will do just that.

"If they happen to.." Heh. Here you are trying to blast ME for being negative, and then you say things like this? At least say what SHOULD be said... "If they happen to start doing their job and knocking down open jumpers, going to the rim to create problems with defensive rotations, and taking better care of the basketball when pressured...

Nothing would make me happier than to see this team make the Final Four. It would mean that they stopped playing like the team that is killing themselves and started playing like the team that can kill other teams. But, I'm not an optimist, I'm a realist, and, as of our last performance, I didn't (and still don't) see it happening. We should win our first round game by at least 20. Let's see what happens from there...

the_ouskull