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85Sooner
3/7/2009, 11:34 AM
This is no way meant to be a political thread (although it contains political actions) about what is right or what is wrong it is simply a question regarding what we are seeing in the market given the current environment.

Here is my evaluation of the MARKET not OBAMA. As we all know the market was overpriced for a very long time.

IMO Bush neglected his duty at the beginning of his second term when he should haveused the bully pulpit to attack the actions within freddie mac and fannie mae.

None the less he didn't. Folks got tired of Republican spending and turned the congress over to the democrats in 2006. (IMO, the democratic leadership started their plans to make sure that they were in position to take the whitehouse in 2008.)

Again it may be wrong and it may be right however we KNOW for a fact that Dodd and Frank knew of the problems with these two organizations back in 2005 and again IMO it was not a factor of of normal market reactions but more of an orchestrated, calculated plan to allow the damage to be revealed in its full extent before the election.


Again, I could be wrong but the chronology works.

Obama campaigned on Change.

He was going to be transparent.

He was not going to employ lobbyists in his cabinet.

He was going to go through the budget line by line.


The markets had gone through a big drop in Oct/Nov but had a bump in Dec. Since Obama was elected or more importantly his "stimulas was signed" the market has been in freefall.

This IMO was and is still caused by his and his cabinet members lack of going public with specifics with regard to what is going on combined with not knowing where the money is going. Each time they go to speak, expectations for an explanation are not met and the markets take another tumble.

I think alot of people feel that no matter how much money is pumped into AIG, GM, and the banks it is not going to work. Investors are waiting for definites before they get back in.

Clearly, The President has not been transparent, has lobbyists all around him and has not fulfilled his promise to cut the budget. His words do not match his actions His/the congress spending is so huge that even the experts can't grasp the situation.

The President has financially supported Palestine while being controlled by Hamas.

He has snubbed the leaders of Britan.

He has secretly tried to negotiate and was snubbed by Russia.

He has indicated that he wants talks with Iran who is snubbing the Hollywood
constituancy and they expect them to apologize for the way Arabs are portrayed in movies



IMO The uncertainty with the market combined with the uncertainty created with the global policy actions will keep the market in this slump until the actual bankruptcies actually occur.

Without regard for how we got here, would it be best served to sit on a cash position until this happens rather than risk life savings to try to recover losses in such a volatile market.

I think about thirty days after these banruptcies occur will be a reasonable time to get back in. I don't see any evidence that a huge rebound is coming it would be better to buy in on the way back up rather than on the bottom or whereever you think the bottom is.

Am I wrong? Any thoughts?

JohnnyMack
3/7/2009, 11:40 AM
This is no way meant to be a political thread (although it contains political actions)......Any thoughts?

http://www.readthesmiths.com/articles/Images/Humor/Fail/1FAIL.jpg

Rogue
3/7/2009, 11:48 AM
85, I have no idea.

I do know that one of my biggest questions has been answered.
For several years I thought that if I could predict what the Baby Boomers would do and when they would do it en masse, I could make a little. Now, it doesn't matter.

The market seems unable to find a bottom.
CNBC is funny, they're all scratching their heads.

I don't underestimate political shenanigans, but the scenario you describe seems too far fetched. The top 5% have taken it in the shorts over the past year too, so to think that Frank, Dodd, and BO were able to orchestrate any of this is too big a reach for most of the conspiracy theorists I know.

85Sooner
3/7/2009, 12:03 PM
85, I have no idea.

I do know that one of my biggest questions has been answered.
For several years I thought that if I could predict what the Baby Boomers would do and when they would do it en masse, I could make a little. Now, it doesn't matter.

The market seems unable to find a bottom.
CNBC is funny, they're all scratching their heads.

I don't underestimate political shenanigans, but the scenario you describe seems too far fetched. The top 5% have taken it in the shorts over the past year too, so to think that Frank, Dodd, and BO were able to orchestrate any of this is too big a reach for most of the conspiracy theorists I know.


Actually, that is just my opinion. My question revolved around what you see happening from here. Where is the turnaround point if you had to guess.

Rogue
3/7/2009, 12:18 PM
2 years from now.
3/7/11

85Sooner
3/7/2009, 12:29 PM
85, I have no idea.

I do know that one of my biggest questions has been answered.
For several years I thought that if I could predict what the Baby Boomers would do and when they would do it en masse, I could make a little. Now, it doesn't matter.

The market seems unable to find a bottom.
CNBC is funny, they're all scratching their heads.

I don't underestimate political shenanigans, but the scenario you describe seems too far fetched. The top 5% have taken it in the shorts over the past year too, so to think that Frank, Dodd, and BO were able to orchestrate any of this is too big a reach for most of the conspiracy theorists I know.



I don't look at it as a conspiricy but more so political jockeying. Thats politics.

SanJoaquinSooner
3/7/2009, 01:20 PM
I don't know where (or when) the bottom occurs. I dollar cost average so I know it is IMPERATIVE for me to continue my monthly contributions through the valley. That is how gains will be made.

yermom
3/7/2009, 01:32 PM
i think people were only talking publicly about how great the economy was while lots of people knew it was a house of cards. once the truth came out, **** went downhill in the market

i've heard some say the DJIA might bottom out at 5-6k

Chuck Bao
3/7/2009, 04:27 PM
You guys trying to peg the bottom of the Dow should keep this in mind.

What is taken out of the Dow will very likely never recover.

For example, the finance sector was the second largest sector in the Thai stock market index before the Asian economic crisis. Then when two-thirds of the finance companies went down and were taken out of the index, there was no chance of recovery. They were already gone. The recalibrations of the index didn't support a recovery of all that lost gains and all of the historic index levels were immediately not meaningful.

I suspect that this will be the case in the US. I think that any readjustments in the components of the Dow may usher in a period of short term stability and possibly gains. But, please forget about long-term index perspectives.

By the way, my stock market strategist thinks the bottom will be in August/September this year when it becomes clear that the stimulus measures are not sufficient. What can I say? She's a bear.

XingTheRubicon
3/8/2009, 09:44 AM
If God took 4 trillion USD from the Saudi's, Russia, etc. and gave it to the US and we immediately balanced everything, we still have about 20 percent of our adult population (homeowner 30+) with damaged credit. 10 percent with no jobs. 100 percent with zero confidence in the market going forward.

Instead, we're spending 4 trillion.

As far as when the market bottoms and starts the slow 8-10 year recovery....

I think you're almost there. The bottom, I don't think, can go much less than 5000. What I fear, is that we'll be between 5000 and 7000 for most of the next decade.

jkjsooner
3/8/2009, 07:06 PM
Actually, that is just my opinion. My question revolved around what you see happening from here. Where is the turnaround point if you had to guess.


You know, you could have just said that and saved yourself a lot of useless typing.