Oh man, Asia is coming unglued… [Archive] - SoonerFans.com Message Boards

Chuck Bao

2/27/2009, 05:44 PM

…Singapore slung, China Shaing-haied, Bangkok one-nighted…

I guess the major point for you guys is that Asia won’t be able to use foreign reserves to buy up US debt. Another bad deal for the house of cards.

This is an excerpt from my monthly strategy I sent to the printer yesterday.

• Thailand is very much exposed to the global economic downturn with about 50% of its manufacturing production going to the export market. We are already seeing a sharp drop off in manufacturing output and rising unemployment. In December and January, Thailand’s manufacturing production fell 18.75% and 21.3% yoy, respectively.

• With the sudden and sharp fall in exports, Thailand’s GDP shrank by 4.3% yoy in 4Q08. On a seasonally adjusted basis and in current price terms, Thailand's economy contracted by 8.44% qoq in 4Q08. Even during the worst of the Asian economic crisis in 1997 and 1998, we did not see such a sharp quarterly drop in economic activity.

• According to preliminary data, Thailand’s exports in January contracted by 25.3% yoy, while imports fell 36.5%. This leads us to conclude that Thailand’s 1Q09 GDP will shrink by 4.55% yoy. Our full year 2009 GDP forecast has been revised down to a negative 1%.

• Thailand’s recent poor export performance falls in line with other countries in the region. China announced January exports had declined by 17.5% yoy, while imports had fallen by a remarkable 43.1%. Japanese exports in January fell by a record 45.7% yoy, South Korean exports by 32.8%, Taiwan’s by 44.1% and Singapore’s by 34.8%. Clearly, Asian economies will not hold up well, with the exception of China.

• Some economists are now predicting that the global economy will contract by as much as 1.2% this year with export-oriented economies in Asia getting hit harder than either the US or Europe. Japan’s 4Q08 GDP shrank at an annual pace of 12.7%, and may not do any better this quarter.

Jerk

2/27/2009, 05:51 PM

Roh roh!!!

Hey, wait, I know what we can do! We can just print the money!

This may happen a lot faster than I expected.

NormanPride

2/27/2009, 06:00 PM

Interesting. I don't really know what to make of it, other than things are hard all around. This is what you get for playing with debt.

yermom

2/27/2009, 06:12 PM

so if the dollar crashes while everyone else's currency crashes, what does that mean?

who has all the money?

Jerk

2/27/2009, 06:16 PM

so if the dollar crashes while everyone else's currency crashes, what does that mean?

who has all the money?

Most excellent question! Our dollar is backed by...hmmm...wait, it's not backed by anything :confused: Maybe "full faith and credit of our government"?

Think of it like this: Half the so-called "wealth" in the stock market just evaporated. Poof, gone.

Jerk

2/27/2009, 06:19 PM

Hey Chuck, read this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSTKG00425920090224

Well, darn, I guess they can't fund our healthcare either.

Chuck Bao

2/27/2009, 06:53 PM

Hari Kari. I did read that, Jerk, and used the 45.7% drop in Japanese exports in the "not enough fear" section of my report. It is unimaginably bad. Good gawd, we are going down in flames.

Dr. Doom, Marc Faber, is telling us that we should all just go back to the farm. I will see if I can find his report. I used to know him personally and he is the coolest dude ever, as much as Dr. Doom can be called cool. In my office today, we were talking about planting fruit trees in our yards.

Curly Bill

2/27/2009, 07:04 PM

Has Asia not heard about our economic stimulus package? Once they do I'm sure things will be OK. ;)

Jerk

2/27/2009, 07:27 PM

Has Asia not heard about our economic stimulus package? Once they do I'm sure things will be OK. ;)

Haahahahahhahaha!

Wait, aren't they the ones who we expect to buy the t bonds to pay for our stimulus?

I really shouldn't be laughing.

What the hell, if you're on the Titanic, might as well drink and have an orgy on the way down.

Curly Bill

2/27/2009, 07:43 PM

Haahahahahhahaha!

Wait, aren't they the ones who we expect to buy the t bonds to pay for our stimulus?

I really shouldn't be laughing.

What the hell, if you're on the Titanic, might as well drink and have an orgy on the way down.

Egg-zactly! :D

Chuck Bao

2/27/2009, 07:44 PM

Thais are talking about planting fruit trees and Americans are talking about orgies on the Titanic. Fitting, no?

Sorry Jerk, it was just too good to miss and besides I finally have a great sig line.

Chuck Bao

2/27/2009, 07:49 PM

Testing my first sig line on SF.

Curly Bill

2/27/2009, 07:53 PM

Testing my first sig line on SF.

I think it works.

Frozen Sooner

2/27/2009, 08:47 PM

Did they not bless the rain down in Africa?

Chuck Bao

2/27/2009, 09:18 PM

Did they not bless the rain down in Africa?

Catchy tune. Can you imagine central banks' announcements as musicals?

Okay, they were previously song and dance routines. Now, it is more of a funeral dirge. I know the people who write this stuff and they read my response. Open curtain. Ash on faces. Lament. I could soon get much better at this, as long as someone pays me to be so negative.

stoopified

2/27/2009, 09:41 PM

So the new version of Hoovervilles will be Obamavilles or Barak Barracks?

SanJoaquinSooner

2/27/2009, 10:43 PM

I think it works.

Mine broked.

jkjsooner

2/27/2009, 11:38 PM

Has Asia not heard about our economic stimulus package? Once they do I'm sure things will be OK. ;)

Or we can do nothing and let everything to to hell even faster...

Curly Bill

2/27/2009, 11:49 PM

Or we can do nothing and let everything to to hell even faster...

...or we could hope for another world war which is largely what got us out of the Great Depression, and not any of FDR's New Deal bull****.

Jerk

2/27/2009, 11:55 PM

Or we can do nothing and let everything to to hell even faster...

You're right. The 2 billion to ACORN and the 8 billion for the train from Disney Land to Nevada (which won't be built for another 5 years) will help tremendously.

Curly Bill

2/27/2009, 11:58 PM

You're right. The 2 billion to ACORN and the 8 billion for the train from Disney Land to Nevada (which won't be built for another 5 years) will help tremendously.

shhhhh! Don't ruin their little utopian dream, they've finally got the keys to the vault and they intend to take advantage.

Jerk

2/28/2009, 12:01 AM

Chuck Bao

2/28/2009, 12:09 AM

Jerk

2/28/2009, 12:11 AM

shhhhh! Don't ruin their little utopian dream, they've finally got the keys to the vault and they intend to take advantage.

Inside the vault is trillions of dollars..

in Monopoly® money

Jerk

2/28/2009, 12:13 AM

I can say with some authority that Asians don't really care. You bunch of slackards just need to go out there and buy some worthless ****. What the hell is wrong with you retarded bunch of hillbillies?

You keep buying our t bonds and we'll keep buying your sh*t at wall-mart.

Oh, and we'll pay you back! I promise! ahahahaha!

Chuck Bao

2/28/2009, 12:28 AM

You keep buying our t bonds and we'll keep buying your sh*t at wall-mart.

Oh, and we'll pay you back! I promise! ahahahaha!

Unforortunately, Asians are not so gullible. Okay, the Japanese are because they are still caught up in comic book land, Middle Easterners are so pitiful in their homo love of sand, camel and dunes. Chinese who actually run the trade of the region, don't seem to be playing along, Or, it could be the Chinese bankers. If you were a farmer and feeling really peeved, you could blame all of your problems on the Chinese bankers abnd call them the jews of the orient, I'm sure that charges of money grubbing will make everyone fell better.

Jerk

2/28/2009, 12:54 AM

Unforortunately, Asians are not so gullible. Okay, the Japanese are because they are still caught up in comic book land, Middle Easterners are so pitiful in their homo love of sand, camel and dunes. Chinese who actually run the trade of the region, don't seem to be playing along, Or, it could be the Chinese bankers. If you were a farmer and feeling really peeved, you could blame all of your problems on the Chinese bankers abnd call them the jews of the orient, I'm sure that charges of money grubbing will make everyone fell better.

Hey, I read something else today that might be of interest to you (Asian economics).

North Korea is planning on a test launch of a missile.

Japan is going to attempt to shoot it down.

Jerk

2/28/2009, 12:55 AM

Here it is:

Defense chief warns North Korea against missile launch

Japan Today
Friday 27th February, 11:59 AM JST

TOKYO —

Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada suggested Friday that Japan might shoot down a North Korean ballistic missile with its ballistic missile shield if the missile is coming toward Japan. ‘‘The Defense Ministry has long been considering such a thing (intercepting a North Korean ballistic missile),’’ Hamada told a news conference. ‘‘It’s not something we have to comment on in one way or another just because we have a situation like this now.’’

His comments came after Pyongyang’s announcement Tuesday that full-fledged preparations are under way to launch an experimental communications satellite, stirring concerns that North Korea may be preparing to launch an improved version of its Taepodong-2 intermediate-range ballistic missile. ‘‘We will do what we have to,’’ the minister also said, adding that Tokyo is continuing to collect information on developments.

Asked if Japan’s fledgling ballistic missile shield is capable of intercepting an incoming missile, Hamada simply said, ‘‘As you already know what we have done up to now, we are doing what we have always been doing.’’

In August 1998, when North Korea fired what is believed to have been a Taepodong-1 missile, part of which flew over Japan and into the Pacific Ongyang claimed it had successfully test-launched a satellite.

In July 2006, North Korea test-fired missiles, including what is believed to be a longer-range Taepodong-2 in a move that drew condemnation from its neighbors.

Spurred by these developments, Japan has been developing a two-layer missile shield to detect, track and intercept ballistic missiles in space with the help of ground and seaborne radar before they hit targets on the ground.

The Standard Missile-3 interceptor launched from an Aegis destroyer covers the upper range of the shield and is designed to intercept incoming missiles outside of the earth’s atmosphere.

The ground-based Patriot Advanced Capability 3, which is responsible for the lower range of the shield, is designed to intercept incoming missiles missed by the SM-3.

Frozen Sooner

2/28/2009, 01:17 PM

Catchy tune. Can you imagine central banks' announcements as musicals?

Hm. At this point we'd almost have to go with Annie. It's a hard knock life out there, but the sun will come out tomorrow.

Chuck Bao

2/28/2009, 06:46 PM

Hm. At this point we'd almost have to go with Annie. It's a hard knock life out there, but the sun will come out tomorrow.

You are right. And, somehow the markets are taking the Annie musical and reading it as the "Annie, Get Your Gun" musical. "I'm a Bad, Bad Man", "Doin' What Comes Natur'lly", "You Can't Get a Man with a Gun" and "Moonshine Lullaby".

I'm honored, I'm flattered,
This greeting really mattered.
This welcome is grand
But I'm really concerned.

I like your attention
But this I have to mention
You're playing with fire
And up to get burned!

There's a girl in Tennessee
Who's sorry she met up with me
I can't go back to Tennessee,
I'm a bad, bad man!

There's a girl in Omaha,
But I ran faster than her Pa,
I can't go back to Omaha

There's a girl in Wyoming,
And they're combing Wyoming
To find a man in white
Who was out with her that night!

There's a girl in Arkansas,
The Sheriff is her brother-in-law,
I can't go back to Arkansas,
I'm a bad, bad man!

I'm enlightened, but frightened.
Though my int'rest you've heightened.
It might turn out to be
That too much, too much for me!

So I'll go back to my tent,
And someday when you're old and bent,
Think of those you might have spent
With a bad, bad man!

Chuck Bao

2/28/2009, 06:55 PM

This link will last for about one day and my department launches its new website design. I really should think about redesigning my own product of Practically Economics.

http://kelive.kimeng.co.th/kelive/userview/EventsList.jsp?cntry=TL&lang=en&cmd=list&cat=MI&subCat=EC

Frozen Sooner

2/28/2009, 07:45 PM

You're right. The 2 billion to ACORN and the 8 billion for the train from Disney Land to Nevada (which won't be built for another 5 years) will help tremendously.

Are either of these actually in the stimulus bill as passed? If so, could you please provide a reference?

'Cause last I heard, both were shot down well before the final vote.

Jerk

2/28/2009, 08:01 PM

http://www.investors.com/editorial/editorialcontent.asp?secid=1501&status=article&id=317952439188615

http://www.dcexaminer.com/opinion/Stimulus-bill-funds-ACORN-despite-its-history-of-corruption-39288257.html

Chuck Bao

2/28/2009, 08:14 PM

Jerk

2/28/2009, 09:50 PM

Jerk, those articles are old. One is dated January 27 and the other dated February 8. I haven't seen any mention that the final bill passed and signed included provisions for ACORN. But, I could be wrong.

i could be, too, but I haven't read the 1200 page bill (or however big it is). I googled it and that was just more confusion. What I get is that they are eligible to receive funds; not that they are directly named to receive it.

Frozen Sooner

2/28/2009, 09:56 PM

http://mediamatters.org/items/200901280027

On January 27, the San Francisco Chronicle reported the false claim -- which the Chronicle attributed to the group Americans for Limited Government -- that $4.19 billion of the economic recovery plan "would go to the liberal housing activist group ACORN." Later the same day, nationally syndicated radio host Rush Limbaugh repeated the claim: "[I]n the Obama stimulus package, $4.19 billion is going to ACORN. Obama's community organizing -- you -- would somebody tell me what the stimulus is in that?" Limbaugh continued: "Oh, it's not called 'ACORN,' it's called 'neighborhood stabilization programs.' Now, would somebody explain to me what in the name of Sam Hill ... $4.19 billion to a voter-fraud organization has to do with stimulus?"

In fact, the bill contains no language mentioning ACORN.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/186409

Officials in both Nevada and California, including California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Nevada Gov. Jim Gibbons (both Republicans) have agreed to back a maglev train between Anaheim (home of Disneyland) and Las Vegas. In June 2008, Reid did help to secure $45 million for an environmental study of the proposed route.

It's possible the Anaheim-Las Vegas project will receive some of the stimulus funds, though how much remains uncertain. It's not even clear how much Reid expects will go to it. On Feb. 12, the Associated Press reported that a statement from Reid's office bragged that the Anaheim-Las Vegas project could receive what AP called "a big chunk of the money." But The Washington Post later quoted a Reid spokesman as saying that while the project is "eligible" for funding, the transportation secretary, Ray LaHood – a former Republican congressman – "will have complete flexibility as to which program he uses to allocate the funds."

Plus, I thought you guys were bitching that not ENOUGH of the stimulus bill was for infrastructure. A high-speed train is certainly infrastructure.

Frozen Sooner

2/28/2009, 09:58 PM

Sorry, Jerk, was c&ping while you were posting.

Basically, you're repeating distortions of the truth that they've managed to sell to some people.

Jerk

2/28/2009, 11:01 PM

Sorry, dude, I wouldn't believe Media Matters if they told me that the Sun was going to rise in the east tomorrow morning.

You'd probably feel the same way about NewsMax or FreeRepublic.

JohnnyMack

2/28/2009, 11:15 PM

I love being drunk and reading these threads. You people rulq.

Chuck Bao

2/28/2009, 11:37 PM

Well, I love being a drunken and posting em. I still don't have enough vim in me to write my latest missive with such flair. This is all I got so far, but I do need to make a run to the store for more of that whiskey.

Quite poor January preliminary economic figures

Obvious signs of a quickly slowing economy
There are no two ways about it: the Bank of Thailand monthly economic indicators for January, which were released Friday afternoon, were both poor and disturbing. We see nothing in these numbers that would lead us to change our current forecasts of 1Q09 GDP contraction of 4.55% and a full-year 2009 contraction 1.00%. Our net conclusion is that the Thai stock market has further to fall on this weakening economic outlook.

Worsening slowdown in manufacturing output
The biggest cause for concern is the sharp decrease in manufacturing production. The manufacturing production index decreased by 21.3% yoy in January, down from 18.5% in December. On a seasonally adjusted basis, output fell 2.0% from the previous month. Average capacity utilisation declined slightly from 57.3% in December to 57.1%. These numbers are pretty much confirmed by electricity consumption by big scale users falling 18.69% yoy, compared to 14.63% in December. We could say that the December numbers were affected by the 8-day airport closure and January numbers by the early Chinese New Year holiday, but that would be missing the main point.

Surprising across the board weakness in consumption numbers
The private consumption index fell 4.5% in January, compared to an 0.88% increase in December. Among all of the numbers released, this is the biggest surprise. Passenger car sales fell 8.8% yoy, motorcycle sales 7.7% and imports of consumer goods –17.1%. It appears that fears about job security has begun to affect consumer confidence, which if true, looks quite bad for Thailand’s economic growth going forward.

Investment indicators also show further contraction
The private investment index shrank 7.9% yoy, compared to a 2.62% decline in December. Commercial car sales fell 39.4% yoy, while imports of capital goods dropped 18.2% yoy and domestic cement sales declined by 11.9%.

Exports fall 25.3%, while imports contract by 36.5%
Exports in January fell by 25.3% to US$10,382mn, as imports contracted by 36.5% to US$8,694mn. Both numbers are in line with the preliminary trade statistics released by the Ministry of Commerce last week. As we stated in our comment last week, it pretty much falls in line with the terribly gloomy numbers already released by countries thoughout the region. On the positive side, Thailand incurred a very sizeable trade surplus of US$1,688mn, current account surplus of US2,289mn and balance of payments surplus of US$1,976mn.

Frozen Sooner

3/1/2009, 12:06 AM

Sorry, dude, I wouldn't believe Media Matters if they told me that the Sun was going to rise in the east tomorrow morning.

You'd probably feel the same way about NewsMax or FreeRepublic.

Simple to refute. Post the language in the bill that specifically gives money to ACORN.

Jerk

3/1/2009, 09:42 AM

Simple to refute. Post the language in the bill that specifically gives money to ACORN.

The didn't put "ACORN" in the bill. But they are eligible to lobby for "Community Development Block Grants" and money for the "Neighborhood Stabilization Program."

They may be stupid but they're not dumb.

Froz, are you saying ACORN is going to receive no money directly or indirectly?

Frozen Sooner

3/1/2009, 01:07 PM

I'm saying that the bill does not funnel $4 billion dollars to ACORN. Sure, they're eligible to apply for grants.

jkjsooner

3/1/2009, 02:56 PM

btw can someone explain to me how the government plans on maintaining the current housing prices? (back when they bubbled)

Wut are they gonna do, point a gun at people's head and say "buy this $60,000 house for $100000 or we will shoot you"?

oh, I got another question for Anyone here with a home which has lost value: Did your ad valorem go down, too?

That is a heck of a question. Can I add a couple of more? Is it really in our best interest for 25 year olds to be saddled with a $500k mortgage they ultimately can't afford?

Even if we make them "affordable" with low rates, has anyone ever contemplated that rates will inevitably rise?

It's funny how I've heard govt officials complaining that rates at 6.5%-7% are too high. We hitched ourselves to the low rate bandwaggon to the point where our economy would collapse if mortgage rates rise.

Okla-homey

3/1/2009, 03:56 PM

All I know is governments have two ways to raise money. The first is through taxation. The second is through borrowing. If Asia stops lending, that could leave only the former to pay for all this stimulation and bail-ation.:eek:

Gale warning. The smoking lamp is out. Batten down the hatches, secure all loose items, close all watertight doors. Essential personnel only on weather decks.;)

tommieharris91

3/1/2009, 04:11 PM

Curly Bill

3/1/2009, 04:30 PM

They have a third. It's called "printing". ;)

...because inflation is like...so awesome. ;)

StoopTroup

3/1/2009, 04:34 PM

Will it help taxes go down if we eliminate Government pensions and handouts to folks who can still work instead of retire? Can't we get some of those folks in retirement villages to still pick a few bushels a day of what ever needs to be picked? Can't we send a few retired Military Folks back into action to press the automated weapons buttons and put the young folks out on the line where we need them? It just seems we need to reallocate our trained work force to places where they can be of value.

We'll get this ship righted if we just lean on the folks who didn't really need to retire.

Work harder and smarter. We'll get through this.

Sean Hannity...you need to quit that talk show host job and you and Rush can help get the next administration back inline. Never before have we needed you more than we ever have. Start now and in four years (maybe less if you can catch enough Dems to impeach and then cause a revolution) you'll have a plan that will fix all of this.

I have to go now....I gotta get back to inventorying my Fallout Shelter Supplies.

Okla-homey

3/1/2009, 04:48 PM

They have a third. It's called "printing". ;)

Yes, but that leads to people having to lug around briefcases full of twenties like Josh Brolin in No Country for Old Men, just to pay for a couple sacks of groceries.

This 100,000,000 mark banknote would buy a beer and a bratwurst in Germany in 1923.;)

http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/6715/ein20hundert20millionen.jpg

Okla-homey

3/1/2009, 05:02 PM

Looky.

Can't we send a few retired Military Folks back into action to press the automated weapons buttons and put the young folks out on the line where we need them? That wouldn't save us any money. It's cheaper to pay the new kids at their lower pay than old folks ordered to return to active duty at their higher ranks and pay. Put another way, why pay a lieutenant colonel to do what a lieutenant can do for half the pay? Not to mention the fact it would be wholly unworkable for the commander to have a squadron full of subordinates the same rank as him.:D

We'll get this ship righted if we just lean on the folks who actually have money in the bank by taxing them at the 40% rate.:texan:

Work harder and smarter. We'll get through this.

I have to go now....I gotta get back to inventorying my Fallout Shelter Supplies. How many times do I have to tell you this? You don't need to stockpile food and stuff. You just have to know where the LDS families are in your neighborhood. They are required to keep a year's supply of non-perishable food on hand for their whole family, and they have lots of kids! ;)

Frozen Sooner

3/1/2009, 05:08 PM

Yeah, Mormon kids are pretty chaste, so you can eat 'em with no chance of disease.

(Sorry hubler)

Boarder

3/1/2009, 05:11 PM

Did they not bless the rain down in Africa?
Naaa, Toto pretty much had that covered.

StoopTroup

3/1/2009, 06:13 PM

Looky.

Did ya like that one...lol :D :pop:

jkjsooner

3/1/2009, 06:33 PM

Will it help taxes go down if we eliminate Government pensions and handouts to folks who can still work instead of retire?

Yeah, let's tell these people who worked for 40+ years without any kind of employer sponsored savings plan that we're just eliminating their pension. (sarcasm) I mean, it's just a government handout anyway. (/sarcasm)

Seriously, why are you so against those who worked their entire lives towards a goal of retirement? Most of them worked at salaries that were much lower than what you and I make in the private sector....

And for those who think pensions are such a great deal, my mother who worked her a$$ off for the State of Oklahoma died just a few months after getting her first pension check. Unlike 401k and the like there is nothing surviving her. I'm not complaining - just stating that those who work hard for their pensions deserve it.

Forgive me if there was sarcasm in your comment that I missed.

tommieharris91

3/1/2009, 06:34 PM

Yeah, Mormon kids are pretty chaste, so you can eat 'em with no chance of disease.

(Sorry hubler)

http://nhlpa93.nhl94.com/teams/images/det.gif

Frozen Sooner

3/1/2009, 07:10 PM

Naaa, Toto pretty much had that covered.

DAMMIT!

StoopTroup

3/1/2009, 08:09 PM

Yeah, let's tell these people who worked for 40+ years without any kind of employer sponsored savings plan that we're just eliminating their pension. (sarcasm) I mean, it's just a government handout anyway. (/sarcasm)

Seriously, why are you so against those who worked their entire lives towards a goal of retirement? Most of them worked at salaries that were much lower than what you and I make in the private sector....

And for those who think pensions are such a great deal, my mother who worked her a$$ off for the State of Oklahoma died just a few months after getting her first pension check. Unlike 401k and the like there is nothing surviving her. I'm not complaining - just stating that those who work hard for their pensions deserve it.

Forgive me if there was sarcasm in your comment that I missed.
Yeah you missed it.

Deal is...lots of comments I'm seeing are the "What's gonna happen to me?" type and I'm really more worried about what's going to happen to "US". When I say "US" I mean...folks who have been working in the private and Government sector who have paid into a system that was built to keep "All of us safe". Even the Down trodden and seemingly out.

There is no way I think the guy who never worked a day in his life should have to cut back to only one exotic sports car in his stable. We wouldn't want them to hurt now would we? If they hurt they might have to live off more than the interest of their trust fund. Then what would they do?

Pick which one you think is sarcastic.

Also...just because your Mother had a bad experience doesn't mean that those who have found a way to life comfortably(even uncomfortably) in retirement should have their pensions wiped out. Bankruptcies of the past have done that to many folks and Our Country isn't any better off because of it. Some are having to work even harder than your Mother and even maybe working themselves into the grave to take care of Grandkids.