ALL Things Tourney Related (RPI, Bracketology, etc.)

[OUSKINS]

I started one of these last year, and it's never too early to look ahead to March :)

Might as well start tracking a few things. Contrary to popular belief seeding DOES matter come Tourney time. There's a reason #1 and #2 seeds get to the Final Four more often than #5 or #6 seeds. They are obviously most likely better teams, but they also get an easier road come Dance time-- especially the #1 seeds.

That's my goal for the Sooners...a #1 seed, with a #2 seed being a very acceptable consolation prize. #3 or below would disappoint me at this juncture.

So, that's what I'm tracking. RPI matters big time when it comes to seeding--and that was a big reason we got a higher seed than many predicted last year: Our RPI was strong from the get-go.

I will continue to post updates in this thread on related topcis...feel free to add and discuss.

Right now, OU is #7 in the RPI behind Duke, Pitt, Clemson, Michigan St., UCONN, and Butler.

Lunardi has us a #2 seed in Bracketology

Bracketography also has us as a #2 seed.

Ed Kleese (me) also currently has us as a #2 seed :)

[Sooner04]

Hopefully Ed Kleese is better at picking NCAA Tournament seedings than he is NFL playoff games.

:D

[John Kochtoston]

I started one of these last year, and it's never too early to look ahead to March :)

Might as well start tracking a few things. Contrary to popular belief seeding DOES matter come Tourney time. There's a reason #1 and #2 seeds get to the Final Four more often than #5 or #6 seeds. They are obviously most likely better teams, but they also get an easier road come Dance time-- especially the #1 seeds.



Are there people seriously arguing that seeding is irrelevant in the tournament?

[OUSKINS]

Hopefully Ed Kleese is better at picking NCAA Tournament seedings than he is NFL playoff games.

:D

It's been a brutal post-season. I stunk in the playoffs last year too though. :)

[8timechamps]

If we play through the regular season up to our ability, then our seed in the tourny will come down to our conference tourny play. Should we make it through regular season play with no or one loss (depending on who the loss is to), and win the conference tourny, I think we get a #1 seed.

If we happen to drop a game to a Nebraska or Tech, I think that drops us to a #2.

My super-early #1 seed projections are:

Duke
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma
North Carolina

And here's why:

Duke - They're Duke, isn't that enough? Seriously, I'm basing this early pick on my projecton of their conference play. I am going on a limb and assume they win the ACC. As long as they don't drop another game to an average or sub-par opponent (like Michigan), then they should be one of two teams out of the ACC to get a 1 seed.

Pittsburgh- Am I the only one not fully sold on Pittsburgh? Although, the more I see them play, the more I am starting to believe. The biggest help Pitt has is that they are playing in a loaded conference this year. One they should dominate. We really won't know how good they really are until the last two weeks of the regular season. They go to Marquette and play a home and home against UConn. I think they come out of conferece with one loss and win the Big East tourny to secure a 1 seed.

Wake Forest- This was a hard pick for me. There are really three ACC teams that could end up as a 1 seed (if you include NC). the reason I think Wake (and Duke) end up with the one seeds over NC is that I feel the tar Heels will drop at least one game Duke. Since NC has already lost to Wake, I think Wake and Duke get the 1 seeds. If NC somehow escapes with two losses (to Wake and Duke) and wins the ACC tourny, then swap NC with Duke.

Oklahoma- Homer alert. It was an easy pick, but let me at least give you my reasoning. It's not completely out-of-bounds to think OU finishes regular season play undefeated. If that happens and we win the tourny, I think a 1 seed is a lock. It's still possible to drop one game (a road game to a ranked team in coference), win the tourny and get the 1 seed. It doens't hurt that the other three 1 seeds I projected are east coast teams. I think the committee will take that in to account, and assuming we finish with one or no losses, we get a #1 seed.

Next four (or 2 seeds)

North Carolina (or Duke if they fall to NC)
UConn (I'm also not convinced that this couldn't be Syracuse, Yes...Syracuse).
Michigan State
UCLA

[Half a Hundred]

If we play through the regular season up to our ability, then our seed in the tourny will come down to our conference tourny play. Should we make it through regular season play with no or one loss (depending on who the loss is to), and win the conference tourny, I think we get a #1 seed.

If we happen to drop a game to a Nebraska or Tech, I think that drops us to a #2.

My super-early #1 seed projections are:

Duke
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma
North Carolina

And here's why:

Duke - They're Duke, isn't that enough? Seriously, I'm basing this early pick on my projecton of their conference play. I am going on a limb and assume they win the ACC. As long as they don't drop another game to an average or sub-par opponent (like Michigan), then they should be one of two teams out of the ACC to get a 1 seed.

Pittsburgh- Am I the only one not fully sold on Pittsburgh? Although, the more I see them play, the more I am starting to believe. The biggest help Pitt has is that they are playing in a loaded conference this year. One they should dominate. We really won't know how good they really are until the last two weeks of the regular season. They go to Marquette and play a home and home against UConn. I think they come out of conferece with one loss and win the Big East tourny to secure a 1 seed.

Wake Forest- This was a hard pick for me. There are really three ACC teams that could end up as a 1 seed (if you include NC). the reason I think Wake (and Duke) end up with the one seeds over NC is that I feel the tar Heels will drop at least one game Duke. Since NC has already lost to Wake, I think Wake and Duke get the 1 seeds. If NC somehow escapes with two losses (to Wake and Duke) and wins the ACC tourny, then swap NC with Duke.

Oklahoma- Homer alert. It was an easy pick, but let me at least give you my reasoning. It's not completely out-of-bounds to think OU finishes regular season play undefeated. If that happens and we win the tourny, I think a 1 seed is a lock. It's still possible to drop one game (a road game to a ranked team in coference), win the tourny and get the 1 seed. It doens't hurt that the other three 1 seeds I projected are east coast teams. I think the committee will take that in to account, and assuming we finish with one or no losses, we get a #1 seed.

Next four (or 2 seeds)

North Carolina (or Duke if they fall to NC)
UConn (I'm also not convinced that this couldn't be Syracuse, Yes...Syracuse).
Michigan State
UCLA

I can't think of any (knock on wood) 33-1 teams that weren't 1 seeds.

[OUSKINS]

If we go 33-1, we'll be the overall #1 seed, book it. But that ain't happenin'. The more realistic question is if we go 13-3 in conference and then win the B12 tourney-- would that be good enough?

[Sooner04]

If we go 33-1, we'll be the overall #1 seed, book it. But that ain't happenin'. The more realistic question is if we go 13-3 in conference and then win the B12 tourney-- would that be good enough?Yep. 30-4 going into the tournament will get us a #1. The conference isn't good enough for us to go 12-4 and hope for a #1.

You can't discount the pub that comes from having the POY on your team and how it affects your seed.

[8timechamps]

Yep. 30-4 going into the tournament will get us a #1. The conference isn't good enough for us to go 12-4 and hope for a #1.

You can't discount the pub that comes from having the POY on your team and how it affects your seed.

Yep! Two weeks ago, I was thinking that Blake (or better yet, the team) was playing himself out of contention for POY. Now, at about the mid-way point, he's right in the thick of things. Having a POY candidate on your team accounts for one loss (two, if both teams are ranked) in the eye of the committee.

I'm not convinced that a 30-4 record would get us a #1 seed. Of course, the three additional losses could come to good teams. So, maybe if that were to happen PLUS we at least make it to the conference final, then I could see it.

Like you said, we play in a weaker conference, and that doesn't help. What does help is some quality wins OOC. I think you mentioned it in one of your recaps that those wins, while feeling good, could/would pay dividends down the line.

[Sooner04]

Here's another thought. Bad losses don't hurt you as much as good wins help you. If we go 13-3 in conference, but have a trip up (say we lose on the road in Stillwater) that's not going to hurt us as much as sweeping Texas will help us.

They don't crow about bad losses unless you've got a few of them. We've got a number of good wins in front of a large audience, so we've put ourselves in a good position if we take care of our business.

And one other thing: don't worry about the difference between a #1 and #2 seed. That's splitting hairs. The drop off after that to a #3 is steep when you take into consideration some of the teams you run the risk of seeing at #6.

[King Crimson]

They don't crow about bad losses unless you've got a few of them. We've got a number of good wins in front of a large audience, so we've put ourselves in a good position if we take care of our business.

And one other thing: don't worry about the difference between a #1 and #2 seed. That's splitting hairs. The drop off after that to a #3 is steep when you take into consideration some of the teams you run the risk of seeing at #6.

look at how we get a 6 seed last year based on W's against Gonzaga, Arkansas, and West Virginia (with Moose)....in my mind we are two fluke plays away from NOT making the tournament if we lose at Tech and Baylor at home. 9-7 in conference is 7-9, all of a sudden. granted, we got what was supposed to be a sucker punch seed getting St. Joe's (see UW-Milwaukee a few years ago for a sucker punch seed)...and all the media climbed on the St. Joe's b-wagon.

i think we'll lose a few conference games, but i saw on another board someone saying that ATM would make the NCAA with 8-8 or 9-7 in conference....because they'd have "20 wins easy". it's one of my irrational anger issues (along with Billy Sims spelled like Chris Simms, or "rediculous" or "dominate"=dominant) that people think 20 wins means something, anything. but, anyhoo, 9-7 is iffy NCAA-wise with the conference being pretty mediocre this year, IMO, for anybody. 8-8, might not even host an NIT game.

depending on the W's and L's, i could see a team like ATM with a total patsy OOC or Missouri in the North (with 2-fers against CU, KSU, ISU, etc) miss the NCAA even with a 10-6 record in conference.

that said, we better show up at Reed on Saturday because we are ticking clock until 60% FT's on the road catches up with us. a bad shooting night or Blake in foul trouble and we're done shooting 60% from the line.

[8timechamps]

Texas A&M will not make the big dance. Like I said erlier, they've got their record with smoke and mirrors. Sure, they beat Baylor, but that's yet to play out. Baylor could blow it over the next month. They'll lose to us, Texas, KU, (already) OSU, and possibly Tech.

My irrational anger stems from the use of "Irregaurdless" and "For all intensive purposes".

[Sooner04]

look at how we get a 6 seed last year based on W's against Gonzaga, Arkansas, and West Virginia (with Moose)....in my mind we are two fluke plays away from NOT making the tournament if we lose at Tech and Baylor at home. 9-7 in conference is 7-9, all of a sudden. granted, we got what was supposed to be a sucker punch seed getting St. Joe's (see UW-Milwaukee a few years ago for a sucker punch seed)...and all the media climbed on the St. Joe's b-wagon.
My point exactly. When we got that 6-seed, did you ever hear anybody talking about us losing to Stephen F. Austin at HOME?! Nope, not a word.

Win you big ones, and you'll get grace on your hiccups.

[8timechamps]

I've always felt like anything below a 2 seed, and you're going to have to go to work early.

[King Crimson]

I've always felt like anything below a 2 seed, and you're going to have to go to work early.

depends a little these days with the made for profit pod system. for instance, in Self's first year KU is a 6 seed playing in KC and STL. that's a great draw for a 2-3 seed?

KU fans will tell you "the team was finally buying into Self's system" and making the second weekend didn't have anything to do with the home-courts...but the "buying into Self" Jayhawks lost 5 of their last 11 heading into the NCAA.

so, you can see how the much vaunted "last 10 games" means vs. fannies in the seats and "name" programs/coaches means to the NCAA/networks.

a year or two before that, CU had a better conference record, better rpi, and head to head W against Tech....and Knight/Tech gets in and Ricardo Patton and the Buffs sit at home.

[Sooner04]

depends a little these days with the made for profit pod system. for instance, in Self's first year KU is a 6 seed playing in KC and STL. that's a great draw for a 2-3 seed?
They were a 4. Still a bush league draw. I would've pulled for Red China in that Elite 8 game against Kansas. Thank God Georgia Tech pulled it out.


so, you can see how the much vaunted "last 10 games" means vs. fannies in the seats and "name" programs/coaches means to the NCAA/networks.

a year or two before that, CU had a better conference record, better rpi, and head to head W against Tech....and Knight/Tech gets in and Ricardo Patton and the Buffs sit at home.
Indubetedly!

We benefitted from that exact science in '99. We're the last team in (a 13-seed no less) while Nebraska goes 10-6 in the Big 12 and sits at home. Nevermind that Nebraska came to Norman with Venson Hamilton and Cookie Belcher and beat the ever-living crap out of us. Nope, we go and they sit.

Then we went to the Sweet 16. That's why I don't bet on sports. :)

[OUSKINS]

Here's another thought. Bad losses don't hurt you as much as good wins help you. If we go 13-3 in conference, but have a trip up (say we lose on the road in Stillwater) that's not going to hurt us as much as sweeping Texas will help us.

They don't crow about bad losses unless you've got a few of them. We've got a number of good wins in front of a large audience, so we've put ourselves in a good position if we take care of our business.

And one other thing: don't worry about the difference between a #1 and #2 seed. That's splitting hairs. The drop off after that to a #3 is steep when you take into consideration some of the teams you run the risk of seeing at #6.

Two points:

1. Don't look now but OSU has the second best RPI in the Big 12. If they go 9-7, they will most likely get in.

2. I agree that a #1 vs. a #2 is splitting hairs in the first two rounds, but generally, I think the #1 seeds have a big advantage come the Sweet 16. We all know that #12 seeds have fared well in the tourney in recent years, but those teams normally go down when facing the #1 seed.

There is a decent recent history of a #1 seed getting a #16, #8-9, and then a #12 in the first three rounds.

[Sooner04]

There is a decent recent history of a #1 seed getting a #16, #8-9, and then a #12 in the first three rounds.
We did it in '03. The 12-seed was Butler. Two games in OKC and then a date with Butler in Albany.

One of the all-time easiest Elite 8 paths there ever was.

[King Crimson]

They were a 4. Still a bush league draw. I would've pulled for Red China in that Elite 8 game against Kansas. Thank God Georgia Tech pulled it out.


i think KU lost in the Sweet 16.




We benefitted from that exact science in '99. We're the last team in (a 13-seed no less) while Nebraska goes 10-6 in the Big 12 and sits at home. Nevermind that Nebraska came to Norman with Venson Hamilton and Cookie Belcher and beat the ever-living crap out of us. Nope, we go and they sit.

Then we went to the Sweet 16. That's why I don't bet on sports. :)

that Venson Hamilton game was a solid ***-kicking, i remember listening to that on the radio (you could get KOMA at night in Colorado). we lose to a bad ATM team in Collie Station to close out conference play and lose to the Pokes in the 2nd round of the conference tournament. Kelvin is on TV the saturday before "selection Sunday" begging to get in.

[Sooner04]

i think KU lost in the Sweet 16.
Negative.

W KU vs. Illinois-Chicago (78-53)
W KU vs. Pacific (78-63)
W KU vs. Alabama-Birmingham (100-74)
L KU vs. Georgia Tech (79-71)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

Don't question me on my NCAA Tournament knowledge, fool!. Mess with the bull ya get the horns. What do you think I did during college? Date? Please. :)

[King Crimson]

Negative.

W KU vs. Illinois-Chicago (78-53)
W KU vs. Pacific (78-63)
W KU vs. Alabama-Birmingham (100-74)
L KU vs. Georgia Tech (79-71)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament

Don't question me on my NCAA Tournament knowledge, fool!. Mess with the bull ya get the horns. What do you think I did during college? Date? Please. :)

my bad. talk about easy paths to the Elite Eight. if we'd beat Purdue in 99 (or 00?), we might have had one. the whole region fell apart.

we'll see where your memory is at in 10 years B.

[8timechamps]

we'll see where your memory is at in 10 years B.

No doubt. I used to be able to name the starting 5 for most of the Big 8. I couldn't tell you much more than one good player per team now.


Aging sucks.

Then again, Brando is just about the craziest college hoop fan I've ever seen...OU hoops anyway.

[Sooner04]

that Venson Hamilton game was a solid ***-kicking, i remember listening to that on the radio (you could get KOMA at night in Colorado).
It was just as bad in person. They're beating us pretty good and then we go on a little run. Kelvin's got Timmy Heskett running all over the place through a picket fence of screens to get open. He'd hit a three and we'd call timeout. We'd always cut it to eight or so and Nebraska would run some basic play for either Hamilton or Belcher (that night, Danny Nee could take his pick) and score at will. It was so disheartening.

They stomped our ***. No two ways about it.

They went 10-6, won a game in Kansas City and stayed home. O-State making a big run in KC probably doomed them, but I never could shake the ***-kicking they handed us.

[King Crimson]

Nebraska has never won an NCAA game.

i've been horrible over the years at players i thought were "can't miss" in the NBA starting with Doug Smith and Jeff Grayer. i thought Hamilton had a shot.

that game on the radio was famous (in my mind) for BBsr. saying "OU is in a man to man or some kind of zone".

[OUSKINS]

Up to #4 in the RPI, holding steady as a #2 seed in both Bracketology and Bracketography predictions.

Arkansas is not doing us any favors... their 0-3 start in the SEC has that loss looking much worse than I originally thought it would. But considering it is only ONE loss at this point, I'm sure most people find it pretty acceptable.

[NormanPride]

At least it was on the road as well. We will have plenty of opportunities to prove ourselves during the season. If we don't get a #1 seed, it's our own fault.

Still, I would rather have a #2 seed in a region where we match up well against the other high seeds than a #1 in a region full of deadly matchups. Yanno?

[8timechamps]

At least it was on the road as well. We will have plenty of opportunities to prove ourselves during the season. If we don't get a #1 seed, it's our own fault.

Still, I would rather have a #2 seed in a region where we match up well against the other high seeds than a #1 in a region full of deadly matchups. Yanno?

That is a good point. Seems like every year the committee "punishes" the lowest ranked (in their eyes) #1 seed.

[NormanPride]

That's exactly why I could care less about our number. When we were the highest #2 against Cincy's #1 we went to the final four, right? And the trip could have been a lot harder if we had been placed higher.

[OUSKINS]

Quick update on some of our opponents:

--The Arkansas loss is quickly heading towards "bad loss" territory. The Hogs are now 0-4 in the SEC and they got DESTROYED at home by Auburn yesterday.

--Our "quality win" ratio isn't great either. Heading into Saturday, Utah was the highest ranked RPI team we've beaten this year and they lost by 10 to UNLV. USC has been playing better though and they found a way to win on the road at Washington State.

OU was #3 in the RPI heading into today, so I'm really not too worried, but if we find ourselves in a battle for a #1 seed, our lack of great wins could come back to haunt us. Not really our fault of course, but some of the teams we've beaten haven't held up their end of the deal.

[IronHorseSooner]

Quick update on some of our opponents:

--The Arkansas loss is quickly heading towards "bad loss" territory. The Hogs are now 0-4 in the SEC and they got DESTROYED at home by Auburn yesterday.

--Our "quality win" ratio isn't great either. Heading into Saturday, Utah was the highest ranked RPI team we've beaten this year and they lost by 10 to UNLV. USC has been playing better though and they found a way to win on the road at Washington State.

OU was #3 in the RPI heading into today, so I'm really not too worried, but if we find ourselves in a battle for a #1 seed, our lack of great wins could come back to haunt us. Not really our fault of course, but some of the teams we've beaten haven't held up their end of the deal.

What could be good, or bad depending on how you want to look at it, is that the second half the Big XII schedule is a bit tougher and will help out (Mizzou, KU, at UTerus, at BU). That being said, the 5 other candidates for #1 seeds (Duke, UNC, Wake, Pitt, UCONN) all will knock each other off. Again, if UTerus and BU are the best that the conference can throw out against us, then that bodes well for keeping a high ranking.

With all of that, the team that scares the bejesus out me if we have to play them in the tourney is UCONN. Why, because Thabeet is 7'3" and their two forwards go about 6'9". They're like us, if their guards hit from the outside, then they're virtually impossible to beat. Even though Duke monkey-stomped an average Terps team, they are a bunch of perimeter guys If their threes aren't falling, then they'll lose. we have seen that the last few years from them. With Pitt, it depends on how close games are called in the tourney. If they run into a game that gets ticky-tacky, which often happens in the tourney, then that takes them out of their game. Wake is good, but we seen what happens if come out and hit them in the mouth. UNC could be the best, but they are a typical Roy Williams team- loads of talent, deep, but will underachieve. His only championship came when he had a bunch of unselfish guys who played great team ball. We have seem similar things from when he was at KU. Exactly how many 'ships did he win with Pierce, LaFrentz, Pollard, Vaughan, and Ostertag- NONE!

If we continue to develop a bench, and the guards continue to play at this level, then this team has a VERY high ceiling. Blake (and WW for that matter), just seem like they are toying with opposing teams. That loss to Arky might have been just what this team needed- a wake up call. Since then, the intensity has been there, and AJ has been playing like a senior PG.

[ouflak]

That's exactly why I could care less about our number. When we were the highest #2 against Cincy's #1 we went to the final four, right? And the trip could have been a lot harder if we had been placed higher.

I don't know. That bracket had something like 12 conference champions in it. It's amazing anybody made it out of there (and they didn't just have to take the runner-up from another bracket to play in that final four spot).



--Our "quality win" ratio isn't great either. Heading into Saturday, Utah was the highest ranked RPI team we've beaten this year and they lost by 10 to UNLV. USC has been playing better though and they found a way to win on the road at Washington State.

OU was #3 in the RPI heading into today, so I'm really not too worried, but if we find ourselves in a battle for a #1 seed, our lack of great wins could come back to haunt us. Not really our fault of course, but some of the teams we've beaten haven't held up their end of the deal.

But it's not quite as simple as that. Sure quality wins count as style points (even in the computers to some extent) but it's the overall record that's really important. I've been tracking how our combined opponents have been doing the last couple of weeks. The previous Saturday they were a combined 8-4. Through the week, 9-5. Yesterday, 9-3 (with two of those playing each other). Even the Mississippi Valley team eeked out a second win. The result is that despite not having any 'quality' wins, our SOS has been climbing higher and higher. Most of our OOCS won't sniff a tourney shot, but that doesn't mean they won't help us to a number one seed. If they just keep winning their games en-masse like this and continue for a combined average of about 10-5 over the rest of the season, and we ourselves finish no worse than 8-3, then I think we'll get a #1 unless we lose our first round game in the Big XII tournament.

[IronHorseSooner]

This year is a perfect storm. Big East and ACC teams pick each other off, there are about 6 other teams in our conference (including UTerus, BU, and KU) that are good, but not great, and the conference tourney would be, essentially three more home games. I don't know if we will have a Memphis circa 2007-08 type record going into the tourney, but it's not outside the realm of possibility...

My fave quote from the game yesterday went something like "well, the #5 team in the country just found another guy (Pattillo)." It's like in MLB when a team gets a mid-season free agent acquisition to help them down the stretch. That's essentially what we have. He can play the 2,3, or 4, and nobody has any game film on him. If Coach Capel kept him out on purpose for this exact reason, it might have been an act of strategic genius.

[OUSKINS]

Bracketology has us holding steady as a #2 seed, while Bracketography has bumped us up into a #1 seed. Both have starting out in Kansas City.

Both also have 6 B12 teams in the Tourney right now.

[tommieharris91]

Jerry Palm has OU as a #1 seed now too.

[IronHorseSooner]

In Bracketology, I swear it's going to an act of Congress to get us into a #1 seed. The good news is that if we beat OSU and ISU this week, we should be at least #4 in both polls next week and a Bracketology #1 becuase Duke and Wake play this week. I guess for an ACC team, losing at home to an unranked opponent doesn't drop you below a team that is 19-1 and is undefeated in a Big 6 conference.

[tommieharris91]

In Bracketology, I swear it's going to an act of Congress to get us into a #1 seed. The good news is that if we beat OSU and ISU this week, we should be at least #4 in both polls next week and a Bracketology #1 becuase Duke and Wake play this week. I guess for an ACC team, losing at home to an unranked opponent doesn't drop you below a team that is 19-1 and is undefeated in a Big 6 conference.

According to collegerpi.com, OU has more top 50 RPI wins than Wake Forest and the same number as Duke (thanks to Purdue, UAB, and Utah). The problem is that OU's loss is starting to look pretty ugly, while Wake's loss to Va. Tech is somewhat explainable even though it was in Winston-Salem. Va. Tech has a healthy 32 RPI, while Arky's RPI is at 87 and falling fast.

[OUstud]

I guess for an ACC team, losing at home to an unranked opponent doesn't drop you below a team that is 19-1 and is undefeated in a Big 6 conference.

This all seems so familiar...

[ouflak]

So far our OOC is 9-5 with 13 unique teams playing. Arkansas (against a newly coached Alabama team) and USC play tomorrow to complete the schedule for this week, so we should be on track for a nice little SOS bonus again this week. I'm assuming that any over .500 performance of our SOS will bring it up a bit.

[OUmillenium]

It was just as bad in person. They're beating us pretty good and then we go on a little run. Kelvin's got Timmy Heskett running all over the place through a picket fence of screens to get open. He'd hit a three and we'd call timeout. We'd always cut it to eight or so and Nebraska would run some basic play for either Hamilton or Belcher (that night, Danny Nee could take his pick) and score at will. It was so disheartening.

They stomped our ***. No two ways about it.

They went 10-6, won a game in Kansas City and stayed home. O-State making a big run in KC probably doomed them, but I never could shake the ***-kicking they handed us.

Yeah, that was one of the few games I attended that year. Ugh. Nebraska shot it really well that night. One of the many games that Kelvin's offenses looked incompetent by comparison.

[ouflak]

Arkansas and USC both won. An 11-5 week for out OOC. I sure hope Arkansas can find a way to crawl out of their hole.

[ouflak]

Well, our OOC schedule went 10-5 Saturday, which is ofcourse not bad. But there were a couple of bad losses in there. For those computers that take scoring into account, I don't think we will improve much if at all. Now to see what happens during the week.

[tommieharris91]

Well, our OOC schedule went 10-5 Saturday, which is ofcourse not bad. But there were a couple of bad losses in there. For those computers that take scoring into account, I don't think we will improve much if at all. Now to see what happens during the week.

RPI doesn't take scoring into account.

Arkansas was one of the teams that lost. They really need to cut that out.

[ouflak]

*blech* Purdue lost.

[OUSKINS]

We need to accpet the fact that we aren't going to have any "elite" wins because many of the teams we've defeated have been disappointing. However, we have a whole bunch of quality wins and our overall body of work should be just fine to keep us in line for a #1 seed. Here's the question: Let's say OU goes 14-2 in the B12--- what is the equivalent record to that, in say, the Big East or ACC? I think that's what you need to determine and judge from there.

[cheezyq]

We need to accpet the fact that we aren't going to have any "elite" wins because many of the teams we've defeated have been disappointing. However, we have a whole bunch of quality wins and our overall body of work should be just fine to keep us in line for a #1 seed. Here's the question: Let's say OU goes 14-2 in the B12--- what is the equivalent record to that, in say, the Big East or ACC? I think that's what you need to determine and judge from there.

It's just like the SEC in football. 0-16

;):D

If we come out of the Big 12 Tourney with only 3 losses on the season, I think we're a low #1 seed, or a high #2.

[NormanPride]

Considering we struggled mightily against Purdue and Davidson, and they're falling behind... how good are we, really?

[cheezyq]

Considering we struggled mightily against Purdue and Davidson, and they're falling behind... how good are we, really?

1. Those were the 3rd and 6th games of the season. A lot has happened since then, and we've improved significantly. Juan Pattillo, AJ, etc.

2. I'm not sure we "struggled" against Davidson. After the first 5 minutes, we never trailed again, and were ahead by 21 at one point. Just like some other games, we let them back in, but we closed out just like the other times.

3. Purdue won 7 straight until this week and has had some injury issues.

We won't know how good we are until we face KU and really until the end of the season. But my hunch is that we're easily in the top 5. If we don't make it at least to the Elite 8, this team will probably be disappointed.

[ouflak]

Tough week for our OOC schedule. 7-8 with no more chances to improve. A couple of tough losses, but also a couple of wins by a decent margin. I kind of feel sorry for Sagarin. His team took a drubbing. I didn't think Duke could score so few points.

[OUSKINS]

OU is now #1 in the RPI. At this point, I think we'd really have to mess things up to not get a #1 seed in the Big Dance.

[OUmillenium]

Agreed ^

[NormanPride]

With Patillo coming on, and multiple scoring threats on any night, I'm feeling better about this team. I'd love to have the first seed out there, and honestly there is not a game on our remaining schedule that we should lose. KU, MU, and Texas on the road are the only worries... But they're games we have to win not only to keep our 1 seed, but to prove that we belong and can really play with the big boys.

[tommieharris91]

Jerry Palm updated his bracket today. A few teams of note:

OU is a 1 seed. The other 1s are UConn, UNC, and Pitt.
Kansas is a 4.
Mizzou is a 6.
Texas is a 9.
ATM and Baylor are both 11s. Baylor is one of his last 4 in.

OSU is one of his first 4 teams out.

[IronHorseSooner]

Jerry Palm updated his bracket today. A few teams of note:

OU is a 1 seed. The other 1s are UConn, UNC, and Pitt.
Kansas is a 4.
Mizzou is a 6.
Texas is a 9.
ATM and Baylor are both 11s. Baylor is one of his last 4 in.

OSU is one of his first 4 teams out.

Tex@$$ at a #9 is a bit harsh, but is hilarious. I told folks before the season started that having them as a Top 10 was stupid. In the college game, if you don't have quality PG, you are in deep trouble. All of the others are about right, but watch for KSTATE to get some talk if they keep on this streak.

[tommieharris91]

We'll probably lose the #1 RPI ranking tomorrow no matter what happens. Colorado is bringing in their 225 RPI, and that will probably hurt us. Duke is #2 and playing #45 Miami. A win for the D00kies could bring them above us.

Anyway, it's the RPI, and ours is still pretty high. It isn't the BCS. It isn't really too much to worry about.

[ouflak]

OOC was 6-8 Yesterday. Tough week. Just as long as we keep winning ourselves....

[tommieharris91]

Apparently Jery Palm updates his bracket twice a week. Notables from his update today:

OU is a 1 seed. The others are UConn, Pitt, and UNC.
Kansas is a 4
Mizzou is a 5
Texas is an 8

...and that's it. No OSU, ATM, Baylor, KSU, or Nebraska. He lists Baylor as his first team out.

[ouflak]

OOC was 8-7 this week. Arkansas lost yet again. We did get a nice win ourselves though over Baylor, which may or may not be useful depending on how well they can pull things together. Now we just need to get past Tech and get ready to face what is pretty much our toughest stretch of the season.

[IronHorseSooner]

We are seeing the top 4 (us, UCONN, UNC, and Pitt) beginning to separate. Teams #5-#8 (Duke, UCLA, Louisville, and Wake respectively) all lost during the week. Unless those 4 teams tank, those are your top 4 seeds. UCONN's loss of Dyson is huge. He's their version of Willie Warren. They have some other good guards, but when they need a play from a perimeter guy, he's usually the one. With Pitt and UCONN playing on Monday, I see Pitt winning, even though it is at UCONN. That game may set offensive basketball back to the 1950s.

[ouleaf]

I think if we beat KU we are pretty much a lock for a No. 1 seed at this point.

[oumartin]

has nobody been watching Memphis?

They aren't just good they are probably better than any team playin' right now.

They have three losses but man I would not wanna play them come tourney time

[Sooner04]

They're smoking a weak C-USA and had a nice win over a grossly overrated Gonzaga team. I did enjoy how they completely dismantled the Zags though, I must say.

As much as you want to avoid certain teams, there are a whole host of folks scared to death at the thought of playing Oklahoma right now.

[Overtime]

They're smoking a weak C-USA and had a nice win over a grossly overrated Gonzaga team. I did enjoy how they completely dismantled the Zags though, I must say.

As much as you want to avoid certain teams, there are a whole host of folks scared to death at the thought of playing Oklahoma right now.

But what they did to Tulsa.... ouch. Could we do that?

*looks it up* oh yeah, we did too, nm =]

[ouflak]

OOC was 7-6 this Saturday. Arkansas being part of that 6. VCU lost and I wish Tulsa had won their game. These teams are likely to slip significantly down in the RPI now.

It was very nice that we won well over the point spread. I know RPI is most important thing, but when all things are (however briefly) considered, I personally believe it's better to win big.

[badger]

Thanks for keeping track of this, flak!

[ouflak]

I'm not sure if it affects us or our conference much, but Duke lost. This creates quite a bit of a pile up in the middle of the ACC. Sagarin is going to have to do some real tweaking of his computer program to keep them ahead of us in his ratings now. But their SOS is strong. They should stay pretty high up in the RPI (in fact they are 5, including the BC loss, as of this post) for the moment.

What does affect us is USC's loss. That's too bad as that win was looking like a nice little gem on our schedule. Much cloudier now.

[OUSKINS]

I'm really not looking at how our opponent's are doing anymore. Bottom line, many of them have been disappointing and it's clear we will not have any "elite" wins come Selection Sunday. But, our overall body of work is so impressive, that it won't matter. If we go into that day with 1-2 losses, we'll be a #1 seed regardless of how our non-conference foes finish up.

We must accept that fact that there will be a few lingering questions about whether or not OU can beat any of the elite teams once the field is announced. As long as people still give us our props for our dominant season, then I'm OK with that question being asked.

And BTW, the Arkansas loss gets worse and worse by the day. So weird.

[Salt City Sooner]

I'm betting it gets worse before it gets better too, as Fortson just got suspended. IMO, his penetration was hands down the #1 reason they beat us.

[IronHorseSooner]

I'm betting it gets worse before it gets better too, as Fortson just got suspended. IMO, his penetration was hands down the #1 reason they beat us.

We didn't have that game on down here in FLA, so when people ask how we lost that game, I can't explain it. My guess, which has been the case for many years with OU (regardless of Billy, Sampson, or Coach Capel) is that the opposing guards just start going psychotic from the outside.

[ouflak]

OOC was 4-4 Wednesday. 7-5 so far this week with 3 more games before Saturday.

[soonervegas]

We didn't have that game on down here in FLA, so when people ask how we lost that game, I can't explain it. My guess, which has been the case for many years with OU (regardless of Billy, Sampson, or Coach Capel) is that the opposing guards just start going psychotic from the outside.

The Arkansas game was a weird one. We tried to auto pilot the 1st 10 minutes of the game, on the road, against a team trying to make a statement. I haven't seen us auto pilot since on the road, although I have seen it at home.

Long story, short Arkansas took that game much, much more serious than we did. I think Capel probably made sure that wouldn't be happening again.

[ouflak]

OOC 8-7 for the week, with some bad losses. It's starting to get to the point where I don't think we can depend on our SOS to boost us into a #1 seed. We're just going to have to keep winning.

[tommieharris91]

OOC 8-7 for the week, with some bad losses. It's starting to get to the point where I don't think we can depend on our SOS to boost us into a #1 seed. We're just going to have to keep winning.

Palm says we're the overall #1 seed right now.

[ouflak]

The problem is that with a relatively weak SOS, one loss, not necessarily even a bad one, can knock us right out of a #1 seed.

[ouflak]

Anyway, our OOC went 7-7. Curiously, our SOS has taken quite a jump. Not only because of Texas, but because several top teams has for some reason had their SOS slipping a bit over the last couple of weeks.

[IronHorseSooner]

Anyway, our OOC went 7-7. Curiously, our SOS has taken quite a jump. Not only because of Texas, but because several top teams has for some reason had their SOS slipping a bit over the last couple of weeks.

If I understand this, our SOS, and therefore OUr RPI went up by losing? It must be because we had already beaten UTerus once, and their win raised their numbers. It looks like one hand washed the other....

My Top 5 come Monday:

1. Pitt
2. OU
3. UCONN
4. Memphis
5. UNC

Pitt and UCONN still must play each other possibly twice. If neither one wins the Big East Tourney (look out for 'Nova), then one has at least one more loss coming (likely Pitt), the other will have two (likely UCONN). UNC will lose again in the ACC tourney. My darkhorse pick to win the ACC tourney is BC. They have beaten Duke and UNC, and did get to MSG earlier this year. Memphis should automatically get docked for playing in a lame conference. Their win against the 'Zags was good, but they are a paper tiger (pardon the pun) as well. Here's a hint, foul Memphis. They are still a bad FT shooting team. If Blake is back, we don't lose again (maybe at all)! That overall #1 seed is a good thing because we would very well get the weakest #2, which should be either Duke or MSU.

[tommieharris91]

If I understand this, our SOS, and therefore our RPI went up by losing? It must be because we had already beaten UTerus once, and their win raised their numbers. It looks like one hand washed the other....


Our RPI fell a bit after the loss, but it didn't fall enough to move us to 3rd. Our SOS didn't move after yesterday.

[ouflak]

For one thing, I should note that I refer to the Sagarin Ratings more than the pure RPI ratings. The reason for this is that it has both a 'RPI'-like listing and a 'pure scoring' listing (I ignore the composite rating).

As far as the pure RPI is concerned, we just slipped a bit in the total ranking and our SOS was stable.


If I understand this, our SOS, and therefore OUr RPI went up by losing? It must be because we had already beaten UTerus once, and their win raised their numbers.

The SOS is relative and is fundamentally based on a ratio of total wins versus total losses (different systems complicate it somewhat more, but that's the basics of it). So if our SOS is ranked 50 for example, then 49 teams somewhere in the world played opponents whose total combined win/loss ratio is better than ours. If on a given Saturday, all of our non-conference schedule went undefeated, we would likely move way up in SOS because its very unlikely that many of the 49 teams, especially those teams just a few ranks ahead of us, will have had their non-conference perform as well.

On this Saturday our OOC oppenent went 7-7, but several other team's OOC opponents had worse outings, thus our SOS moved up. I focus on the Out Of Conference schedules because in the conference all of the teams play each other at some point, and things tend to cancel out as you suggested.

[ouflak]

Well I suspect there has been a drop off in interest since a #1 seed is no longer a possibility. I may just do OOC updates once a week from here on out. Anyway, our OOC schedule had a great day yesterday going 6-1, but that was after a pile-up of losses Sunday - Tuesday, so overall it's 6-5.

I'm guessing we're looking at a three seed now depending on the Missouri game. Things have really turned from a week and 1/2 ago.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Well I suspect there has been a drop off in interest since a #1 seed is no longer a possibility. I may just do OOC updates once a week from here on out. Anyway, our OOC schedule had a great day yesterday going 6-1, but that was after a pile-up of losses Sunday - Tuesday, so overall it's 6-5.

I'm guessing we're looking at a three seed now depending on the Missouri game. Things have really turned from a week and 1/2 ago.


If we win out and are 30-3 going into the Big 12 Championship against KU we will be a #1 seed. I'd say that is more than just a possibility.

[NormanPride]

I think if we finish strong with Blake back, the selection committee will forgive two losses with him on the bench.

[tommieharris91]

Well I suspect there has been a drop off in interest since a #1 seed is no longer a possibility. I may just do OOC updates once a week from here on out. Anyway, our OOC schedule had a great day yesterday going 6-1, but that was after a pile-up of losses Sunday - Tuesday, so overall it's 6-5.

I'm guessing we're looking at a three seed now depending on the Missouri game. Things have really turned from a week and 1/2 ago.

A #1 seed is very much a possibility. The committee will likely set aside the 2 losses this week because we were without our best player. They've done this with other teams before.

[IronHorseSooner]

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/columns/story?columnist=forde_pat&id=3930149&sportCat=ncb

In an unusual moment of clarity, Pat Forde puts this in perspective. The conventional wisdom is that if we don't lose again, we will get a coveted one seed. In the mind of the selection committee, these games without Blake are "mulligans." This would further reinforced by beating Mizzou and winning the conference tourney. Heck, Pitt lost the other night, and UCONN still has to go to Pitt. The team that is the most tenuous is Memphis. Their ranking is inflated due to a poor conference.

[ouflak]

Pretty tough week. Our OOC schedule went 6-9, with several really bad losses. Our own losses haven't helped things much. I am glad to see that you guys are so optimistic. But after our losses and the games dropped by our OOC, it will take quite a run by us and few other teams we've played to get us back into a #1 seed I think.

[8timechamps]

I still think there are two ways we can get a 1 seed.

Scenario 1 - Finish undefeated. Obviously this gives us the best shot.

Scenario 2 - Beat Tech and O-State, lose at Mizzou. Have Mizzou beat KU and win their other games. This would make Mizzou and KU the number 1 & 2 seeds in the conference tourny. We come is as a 3rd seed and beat Mizzou, then KU in the tournament championship.

Now, scenario 2 assumes a lot of things will happen. In other words, it's fairly worthless.

I say we win out, win the Big XII tourny an leave no doubt.

[tommieharris91]

In your 2nd scenario, Mizzou would be the #1 because they would have swept Kansas.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

It isn't absolute but IMO if we win Wed night at MU we will be very likely to end up with a #1 seed. If we lose to MU then the odds are likely we wind up with a #2 seed.

[8timechamps]

In your 2nd scenario, Mizzou would be the #1 because they would have swept Kansas.

I didn't mean that Mizzou would be 1 and KU would be 2 (although, it does sound like it). I just meant that they would have the first and second seeds.

It won't matter anyway, we're going to beat Mizzou. :P

[ouflak]

Our OOC opponents went 9-4 Saturday.

[IronHorseSooner]

It isn't absolute but IMO if we win Wed night at MU we will be very likely to end up with a #1 seed. If we lose to MU then the odds are likely we wind up with a #2 seed.

Agreed. With wins over two tourney teams this next week, we will be a #1 seed. Remember, Pitt and UCONN have the return match, Duke and UNC have the return match, The 'Ville still has Marquette. Memphis, like all year, has nobody to improve their resume. The ACC and Big East tourney will cause those teams to have another loss. Therefore, win this week, get to the finals of the Big XII Tourney (aka 3 home games), and we get a #1 seed. Win that, and we might end up the OVERALL #1 seed.

[ouflak]

Arkansas won. Too late to help much, but atleast it's a little something.

[Bruiser53]

Lunardi still has us at a number 1 seed despite the losses. At this point, we have a two seed all but locked up, even if we lose three in a row IMO. Mizzou seems like a very streaky team, not just from game to game, but from half to half, so hopefully we catch them like they played against KU in the first half. That is a big game Wednesday to clinch us a one seed

Bracketology 3/2/09 (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology)

[soonervegas]

Like Bruiser said both Lunardi and cnnsi have us at #1 still. Bad news, is that they both have our #2 seed as Louisville. I would prefer other #2 seeds....

[ouflak]

Davidson just finished their season winning the Southern conference regular season title (25-6). They will have to win their conference championship to make it to the tourney, which they should do without too much trouble (hope this isn't a jinx).

[NormanPride]

Like Bruiser said both Lunardi and cnnsi have us at #1 still. Bad news, is that they both have our #2 seed as Louisville. I would prefer other #2 seeds....

THIS is why I would not mind dropping to a #2. I want no part of Louisville right now. Let someone else take that hot team. I want Duke.

[ouflak]

American just clinched the Patriot League regular season title. The SEC basically committed acts of cannibalicide with three of their top 4 teams losing, two of them at home. We and Kansas lost.

Right now I'd say the #1 seeds are North Carolina, Pitt, UConn, and Michigan State. Things can still flip-flop around perhaps a bit, but I think the #2 and #3 seeds are sorting themselves out as well.

[kevpks]

I think if we beat the Pokes and make it to the finals of the Big XII tournament we'll still get a 1 seed.

[soonerfan28]

People need to remember that Pitt and UCONN still have to play each other again and UNC has Duke.

[ouflak]

OOC schedule was 6-11 this week. This pretty much balances out the SOS boost we got from the Missouri game.

[IronHorseSooner]

If UNC beats Duke and UCONN beats Pitt, we will drop to no lower than #6. However, we need to win the Conference Tourney, aka 3 home games.

[ouflak]

Virginia Commonwealth University just wrapped up the Colonial Athletic regular season title. #1 UCONN just lost to #3 Pitt. Missouri lost to A&M, which pretty much assures that the aggies will be in the tournament.

Cornell is the first to get an automatic birth with their regular season victory over Penn (no tournament for the Ivy League). They're a modestly halfway decent team this year by Ivy League standards.

[ouflak]

An excellent day by our OOC opponents yesterday! They went 6-1, with two playing each other (Tulsa def. Rice).

Couple of notes:

1. With Utah's win, that's 4 OOC teams we played that won their regular season title (or tied for it). Of these teams, only Utah doesn't need to win its conference tourney to get into the NCAA's.

2. Tulsa (22-9, 12-4) and UAB (21-10, 11-5) are second and third respectively in Conference USA. As long as these two teams take care of business and meet in the semi-finals of their conference tournament to see who gets the privilege of being pounded by Memphis in the final, I think both are in by invite, UAB most assuredly, so we probably want Tulsa to get into that final.

3. I think we may grab a #2 seed *if* we play our way into the Big XII final against Kansas and our OOC opponents that should win their conference tournaments infact do. We maybe grab a #1 seed if we win the Big XII and get a bit of help from the Big Televen (someone knocks off Michigan State early, Purdue wins it all) and the Big East (someone, hint: Villanova, Marquette, Syracuse or West Virginia (the one I'd like to see) goes on a tear and wins that tournament, knocking off as many of the top three as possible).

--------------------

Louisville has won their regular season title. I'm not sure who (or whom) from that conference is going to get a #1 seed. I suspect UCONN or Pitt will win their conference tournament. If Duke loses today versus NC, and doesn't win the ACC tournament, they will be no higher than a #4 seed; irrespective of how high their SOS is. The Big XII could get seven teams in. Most pundits seem to think it will be 5 or 6. KSU vs OSU could decide that for the selection committee. The SEC has got its own number this year. Anyway I think the following are in: LSU, Auburn and Florida no matter what happens in the SEC tournament.

[IronHorseSooner]

MSU has some bad home losses (Northwestern and Penn State) that will likely keep them off of the #1 line. The teams in competition for #1s and #2s are pretty much set (Pitt, UNC, UCONN, us, Memphis, MSU, Duke, and the 'Ville). Each has their own gripe to be a #1. Here are each of their cases:

Pitt: Beat UCONN TWICE when they were #1. They were #1 twice themselves.
UNC: ACC regular season champs. #1 at one point as well.
UCONN: #1 twice and just 3 losses in a tough Big East.
Oklahoma: Preseason NIT Champs. In reality, would have had just 2 losses, been #1, and won the Big XII outright if Blake Griffin wasn't concussed.
Memphis: Longest current winning streak and has dominated their conference.
Louisville: Won Big East regular season title.
Duke: #1 at one point.
Michigan State: Won Big Ten, even with Morgan out for a while. If you are going to credit OU for being without Griffin, then you have to do the same for MSU (their logic, not mine).

KU would have had an argument if not for the blowout loss to Tech. LSU could have, but they looked awful this week. Wake would need a lot of help.

[tommieharris91]

2. Tulsa (22-9, 12-4) and UAB (21-10, 11-5) are second and third respectively in Conference USA. As long as these two teams take care of business and meet in the semi-finals of their conference tournament to see who gets the privilege of being pounded by Memphis in the final, I think both are in by invite, UAB most assuredly, so we probably want Tulsa to get into that final.


I've said this earlier, CUSA ain't getting 2 teams in if Memphis wins the conference tourney. :rolleyes:

[soonerfan28]

Memphis will not be a #1 seed. There SOS is 53rd right now and they have few quality wins (Xavier, Gonzaga and Tulsa). Memphis may get a #2 seed, but are they really deserving. I think if we win the Big XII then we'll be a #1 seed. I don't see the Big East getting 3 #1 and that is the only way that we don't get one. UNC, OU, Pitt and UCONN.

[tommieharris91]

Apparently American was down 3 with under 10 seconds to play in their game at home vs Army and pulled it out. They play Holy Cross in DC for the auto bid on the 13th.

[Remembering Tom Stidham]

Our women looked good, today beating Texas at their place. Any chance Hand will return this season?

[tommieharris91]

Davidson lost to College of Charleston today.

[Sooner4FCD]

Convincing wins over Missou and Kansas in the tourney would get us a #1 seed, I'd imagine.

[Collier11]

unfortunately we have the path of most resistance I think, osu, mizzou, kansas are the likely matchups in the tourney for us

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I'm not part of the selection committee but IMO it is pretty cut-and-dried at this point.

Win the Big 12 tourney = 1 seed
Lose at any point in Big 12 tourney = 2 seed.

I suppose maybe a loss to ISU might open the door to get us stuck with a 3 but I don't think otherwise there are any bad losses in the conf tourney.

I think a loss opens the door for Louisville or Mich St. I don't think Memphis has done enough in non-Conf to merit a 1-seed. Going undefeated in any league is an accomplishment but I think there are at least 6-7 other teams including OU that could have done the same in Conf USA.

[Dan Thompson]

What does the Big XII Tourney pairing look like and when does it begin?

[Collier11]

BIG 12
At Ford Center
Oklahoma City
FIRST ROUND
Wednesday, March 11
Game 1: No. 8 Nebraska vs. No. 9 Baylor, 12:30 p.m.
Game 2: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 12 Colorado, 3 p.m.
Game 3: No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Iowa State, 7 p.m.
Game 4: No. 6 Texas A&M vs. No. 11 Texas Tech, 9:30 p.m.
QUARTERFINALS
Thursday, March 12
Game 5: No. 1 Kansas vs. Game 1 winner, ESPN2, 12:30 p.m.
Game 6: No. 4 Kansas State vs. Game 2 winner, 3 p.m.
Game 7: No. 2 Oklahoma vs. Game 3 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 8: No. 3 Missouri vs. Game 4 winner, ESPN2, 9:30 p.m.
SEMIFINALS
Friday, March 13
Game 9: Game 5 winner vs. Game 6 winner, 7 p.m.
Game 10: Game 7 winner vs. Game 8 winner, 9:30 p.m.
CHAMPIONSHIP
Saturday, March 14
Game 11: Game 9 winner vs. Game 10 winner, ESPN, 6 p.m.

[8timechamps]

I've said this earlier, CUSA ain't getting 2 teams in if Memphis wins the conference tourney. :rolleyes:

I still stand by my words. CUSA will have at least 2 teams in the tourny*.


*IF UAB and Tulsa look good in the CUSA tournament.

[tommieharris91]

VCU just won the Colonial tournament. They go dancin, and uhh we beat them this season.

[Frozen Sooner]

Go future Alabama head coach Anthony Grant (please please please if we don't get Mike Anderson)!

[OUSKINS]

Doesn't really matter to OU, but so far the tourneys have yielded great news for Bubble Teams like OSU and A+M. Almost no upsets or Cinderallas stealing bracket slots--the mid-majors (and smaller) conferences are all producing champions that would already have gotten an at-large bid. The one interesting exception is Davidson-- I wonder if the "Curry factor" will push them into the Dance?

[Collier11]

if the committee does their job, Davidson will not get in.

[ouflak]

Unfortunate really. Davidson would have helped our profile a bit more, and they're not a bad team at all. It's not like they lost to some 17-16 Chattanooga team or something.

[Collier11]

they just didnt beat anyone all year

[ouflak]

Rice just picked up a surprise win in the first round of Conference USA. They could go all the way!

[IronHorseSooner]

Actually, Butler losing hurts a good bit of bubble teams.

[Collier11]

any of the teams that win their tourney or make a run when they were already considered out hurts some of the bubble teams

[ouflak]

Tulsa is up 41-17 over Rice at halftime. This game is ofcourse a wash for us, but still surprising.

[Collier11]

Lunardi as dropped us to a 2 seed but I cant gripe if this was our route to the elite 8...

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

KU probably just played their way to a 3-seed.

[ouflak]

UAB (22-10, RPI 44) and Tulsa (23-9, RPI 61) will meet in the semi-finals of Conference USA as predicted. I still think one of these teams could get in the NCAA tourney.

Mississippi Valley State lost.

Baylor could be making a bit of a run.

[NormanPride]

Baylor/Texas Semi, right? Interesting. It's sickening to think that Texas has an inside track to make it to the championship. Though, if we beat the aggroids and Mizzou, I'd want to rest the starters in the championship game just so Baylor could get in. :D

[ouflak]

Coppin State, Utah and USC won. <copy>-<paste> Arkansas lost.

Like I said earlier, I think we are around a #2 or #3 seed, depending on how a few other teams do. Obviously both Pitt and UCONN have lost. Will be an interesting set of options for the selection committee.

[ouflak]

Looks like American (24-7) has won the Patriot League title to earn the automatic bid.

[Collier11]

Tulsa won baby, maybe they will sneak in afterall, for that to happen we dont need teams like Baylor winning though. Do I root for the Big 12 or the state? Hmmmm, Tulsa!

[ouflak]

Well as mentioned, Tulsa will be playing Memphis in the Conference USA final. UAB is very likely in the NIT. They have a great RPI but just not enough recognition. Tulsa pretty much needs to win to get into the NCAA's. Also-wons from our OOC schedule are: Utah (into the Mountain West final), USC, and Purdue. Coppin State lost in the MEAC semi-finals.

Duke won, which possibly hurts our seed as a first round loss for them would surely have shoved them down in seeding behind us. Michigan State is also looking strong. If Missouri wins the Big XII, those 28 wins and a title will probably shine more brightly than our 27 while losing 3 of our last 6.

The ACC and the Big East are probably the games that will be most influential on our seeding at this point. But it sure would be nice if we could add 4 more conference tournament champions to our resume (for a total of 6 as VCU and American are already there).

[IronHorseSooner]

Here's an idea when playing Memphis, ZONE!!!!! Outside of Mack, nobody on that team can make a 3 to save their lives.

[tommieharris91]

We're still a #2 in KC in Palm's new bracket.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

This is just a best guess...call it Frogetology:)

If the favorites win today I think the S-curve for the top 16 is something close to this:

1 UNC
2 Lou
3 Mich St
4 Pitt
5 Mem
6 UConn
7 Duke
8 OU
9 Vill
10 MU
11 KU
12 Syr
13 Ariz St
14 Gonz
15 Wash
16 LSU

There will probably be some slight shuffling of the bracket from there because of potential conference match-ups and geography.

That would make the top 4 seeds by region something like this:

1 UNC
2 OU
3 Vill
4 LSU

1 Mich St
2 UConn
3 KU
4 Ariz St

1 Pitt
2 Memp
3 MU
4 Wash

1 Lou
2 Duke
3 Syr
4 Gonz


I think that will be at least in the ballpark and could be pretty close.

[ouflak]

UNC just lost in the semi-finals of the ACC. Michigan State now has 6 losses on the season from the semi-finals of the Big XII. We need Purdue to win that tournament.

Sucks about the OU women going down. I sure hope Courtney has got a nicely paying future job lined up. Because I'm not so sure a women's team that is not strong enough to win its own conference can win a national title. On the men's side this is certainly possible, the women, well... things are bit more top-heavy in that division of the sport.

[ouflak]

*sigh* Duke won. That's a number 2 seed for sure. Oh well. Purdue won. Let's see how USC does.

[Collier11]

weve got a 2 seed locked up folks

[Eielson]

weve got a 2 seed locked up folks

I don't think that it is a lock at all.

[Eielson]

I'm glad that I don't have to cheer for USC anymore.

[Collier11]

UNC, Uconn, Ville, Pitt are 1's unless the committee doesnt want to give the Big least 3 teams

The twos are Duke, Memphis, Us, and MIch St. The only wildcard is Mizzou but I still think they are a 3

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

UNC, Uconn, Ville, Pitt are 1's unless the committee doesnt want to give the Big least 3 teams

The twos are Duke, Memphis, Us, and MIch St. The only wildcard is Mizzou but I still think they are a 3

I see it pretty much the same way. MU did help themselves big time by winning the Big 12 tourney but the beat TT,OSU with their best player injured and Bay to win the title. So they really only added 1 top 50 win to their resume when before the tourney they were looking at a 4 seed.

We pretty much were stumbling and falling on our face at the finish line but I do think we finished 8th (overall) at the line.

Honestly though since we aren't going to be a #1 seed it could work out better for us if we were a 3 seed and got the right match-up. I don't think playing a 6 seed or a 7 seed in round 2 makes a big difference but there is always that 11 over 6 game that could set things up in round 2.

[Eielson]

UNC, Uconn, Ville, Pitt are 1's unless the committee doesnt want to give the Big least 3 teams

The twos are Duke, Memphis, Us, and MIch St. The only wildcard is Mizzou but I still think they are a 3

Outside of one conference getting 3 1's, I agree that that is the way it SHOULD be. I just don't know that it is a lock that it WILL be that way. ESPN has us behind Kansas. They beat us at Norman and won the regular season Big XII Championship. I know, Blake was hurt, but we don't really know how they will see that. We finished awful, with and without Blake.

[ouflak]

Well we certainly weren't hurt by Utah and USC winning their respective conference titles. But I would be a bit surprised if we got a number 2 seed at this point. If Duke had lost in the first round, everything else the same, I think we rather surely had it. Maybe Purdue will be enough of a nudge. One thing the committee does look at is how teams finished. Missouri certainly finished win-wise better than us or Kansas. We'll see.

[OUSKINS]

We'll either be the last #2 or the first #3---doesn't really matter UNLESS KU is the #2, which means they will probably go to KC and we'll be shipped out.

[tommieharris91]

Well we certainly weren't hurt by Utah and USC winning their respective conference titles. But I would be a bit surprised if we got a number 2 seed at this point. If Duke had lost in the first round, everything else the same, I think we rather surely had it. Maybe Purdue will be enough of a nudge. One thing the committee does look at is how teams finished. Missouri certainly finished win-wise better than us or Kansas. We'll see.

The thing about Missouri was that they only picked up one good win on their way to the Big 12 tourney title. I really don't think the committee will see beating Texas Tech, OSU, and Baylor as a tough run.

[OUSKINS]

Lunardi now has us back as a #2 seed in KC. All of the sites I've checked have it the same way......these guys are usually pretty accurate, so my guess is that we wind up as a 2.

[Collier11]

he has us facing marquette in rd 2 which scares me...teams like that with good gaurds will be the death of us

[IronHorseSooner]

he has us facing marquette in rd 2 which scares me...teams like that with good gaurds will be the death of us

Marquette is not the same without James, and they have NO size. Their best post player is about 6'4"/6'5". They've lost like 5 out of the last 6 games. That would actually be a good scenario for us. They have a lot of guards, but they do really play at the frenetic pace that Mizzou or OSU plays.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Jerry Palm has us as a #2 seed in KC with a potential second round match-up with Clemson and 3rd round with Nova.

[ouflak]

Purdue won. That's 5 conference tourney champions we've beaten on our OOC schedule. Not too shabby.

[Collier11]

Louisiville the overall #1 seed, cant argue with that.

Pitt, Unc, and Uconn the other #1 seeds. I dont really agree with Uconn but whatever

On a seperate note, good to see Calipari give some love to Tulsa

[JLEW1818]

I think UCONN is soft..

[tommieharris91]

On a seperate note, good to see Calipari give some love to Tulsa

It came wayyyy too late. Lunardi had TU as his 8th team out.

[JLEW1818]

well no Louisville

[colleyvillesooner]

Arizona your first bubble team.

[Newbomb Turk]

well, we're not in the midwest.

[JLEW1818]

Kansas 3 seed

[colleyvillesooner]

Kansas a 3. That bodes well for us as a 2

[JLEW1818]

Midwest looks tough.

[KC//CRIMSON]

Go North Dakota State!

[JLEW1818]

dude Kansas is in trouble

[Collier11]

Kansas a 3 seed and the A-10 getting three teams, Zona getting in. Some teams arent getting in that thought they were

[JLEW1818]

aggies get the Mormons

[Newbomb Turk]

you'd think if we are a 2, we won't be in the West with Uconn. Probably Memphis.

[Collier11]

good call

[SoonerStud615]

you'd think if we are a 2, we won't be in the West with Uconn. Probably Memphis.

Nice.

[Collier11]

maryland in

[colleyvillesooner]

OUCH. Mizzou gets shipped to Boise and gets Memphis.

[JLEW1818]

so two 3 seeds, and a 9 seed so far? big 12

[Collier11]

Mizzou a 3 seed

[Sooner98]

I bet we're a 2 with Pitt.

[JLEW1818]

so who you rather player pitt or NC ?

[Collier11]

I think Pitt is the 1 seed that we match up with the best

[Sooner98]

The West is pretty weak: UConn, Memphis, Mizzou. Not sure who I'll have in my bracket, maybe I'll go with Purdue or Washington.

[Sooner4FCD]

so who you rather player pitt or NC ?

I'd rather get to the Elite 8 first

[Newbomb Turk]

so who you rather player pitt or NC ?


I think Pitt is the 1 seed that we match up with the best

agree


I'd rather get to the Elite 8 first

true dat!

[Collier11]

Can you imagine a Blake vs Blair matchup, that would be brutal

[JLEW1818]

Pokes vs tenn

[Collier11]

OSu can beat Pitt, dont think they will but they certainly can.

[colleyvillesooner]

Duke a #2...mmmmm

[Sooner98]

We'll be with North Carolina. Let's hope Lawson isn't healthy.

[Collier11]

uh oh guys, maybe they forgot us and we didnt get in

[JLEW1818]

Texas a 7 ??? what

[colleyvillesooner]

Texas Duke in the second round. At least one will have to lose :D

[KC//CRIMSON]

Go Gophers!

[JLEW1818]

so who we gonna have in round 2 ?

[Collier11]

VCU will beat UCLA

[JLEW1818]

dude I'm feeling FSU with some upsets

[Newbomb Turk]

uh oh guys, maybe they forgot us and we didnt get in

:eek:










:D

[Collier11]

UNC scares me if we make it that far, I dont know if we can stick with them

[colleyvillesooner]

My old roomate went to Stephen F Austin, I hope we get them as the 15.

[JLEW1818]

I think NC is the most inconsistent of the 4..........

[KC//CRIMSON]

UNC scares me if we make it that far, I dont know if we can stick with them


If OU pulls their head out and plays to their ability, they can stick with anyone in that bracket.

[Collier11]

Oooh, Butler against UNC would be cool

[GrapevineSooner]

K-State's bubble just burst.

[jdsooner]

Number 2!

[JLEW1818]

Oklahoma Vs. Morgan State

[GrapevineSooner]

OU a 2 vs Morgan State in KC

[jdsooner]

Kansas City here we come!

[Collier11]

There we are, Clemson is scary when they play well but they are really inconsistent. Michigan doesnt scare me too much if they win

[JLEW1818]

Clemson could be hard

[GrapevineSooner]

Syracuse vs I'm a lumberjack and I'm OK

[JLEW1818]

damn Syracuse too,

[Sooner98]

So, here's our probable road: Morgan State, Clemson/Michigan, Syracuse, UNC. We gotta play better than we have been, but I'll take it.

[JLEW1818]

Midwest is hardest i think

[tommieharris91]

Where are UAB and Tulsa?

[JLEW1818]

quick to the morgan state message boards!!!!

[ouflak]

Well..., not so bad. Relatively close to home for the first round, and these are teams I'm fairly confident we can beat. North Carolina, if we both get there, will be a darned tough match-up.

[Ardmore_Sooner]

Where are UAB and Tulsa?

NIT! NIT!

[KC//CRIMSON]

Gotta love that commercial.....


Texas has NO ANSWER for Carmelo Anthony!

[cheezyq]

The East and Midwest look really tough. I think ours is a winnable bracket.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I think UNC's better is better than anyone's else's better when they play their A-game. At the same time I like our chances to get to the regional final. Too bad we couldn't play Syracuse in OKC or Tulsa though.

I've watched Clemson several times. They have looked real good at times but I think they are a good match-up for Blake inside. If Arizona St could knock off Syracuse which is very,very likely I think we would have a pretty big edge there.

This is all based of course on us playing better than we have the last few games. If we don't turn it up a notch then it won't matter who wins between Syr and Ariz St though.

[tommieharris91]

Gotta love that commercial.....


Texas has NO ANSWER for Carmelo Anthony!
Neither did we. :(

[Bruiser53]

Clemson lost to two wins in the ACC Georgia Tech in their first game in the ACC tourney and have lost 4 of their last 5, so they are right there with us in terms of struggling going into the tournament. They have some long, lankey athletes and at least one white guy that can hit threes, but I don't think they are well coached. This is definatly a game we should win the second round assuming Clemson gets past Meatchicken, who seems like a wildcard at this point.

If you look farthur ahead, Syracuse is a very interesting 3 seed in this bracket. After their emotional and exhausting run through the Big East tournament to the championship, I wounder how they will respond in the NCAAs. Something tells me they are spent and won't make it to the sweet 16. Arizona State is an ok team, but I still don't think the Pac 10 is worth two craps, so hopefully all this could can lead to a decent run and perhaps a matchup with UNC, and then we'll see what happens. But I guess we can't overlook Morgan State or we'll end up like Iowa St back 6 years ago or so.

[IronHorseSooner]

SU has a history of expending too much energy in the Big East Tourney and getting bounced early in the NCAAs (Vermont, anyone). It all comes down to OUr guards. If they hit their threes, we win. If they don't we lose. Simple as that.

[soonermagic1986]

does anybody know when we play thursday!!!!!!!!!

[SoonerStud615]

8:40 pm CST

[Okie35]

SU has a history of expending too much energy in the Big East Tourney and getting bounced early in the NCAAs (Vermont, anyone). It all comes down to OUr guards. If they hit their threes, we win. If they don't we lose. Simple as that.

Not just threes ... any shots period... the guards are so inconsistent