More chum for the water (stats again)...

[JGATOR]

this is copied and pasted from a poster on http://mudlizard.com/swamp I thought it was rather interesting take between the two teams.

After extensive statistical research, there are a few observations I think bear some weight into the game with Florida.

Oklahoma's defense:

- Has a problem stopping drives. Like I pointed out earlier, 78.7357% of offensive possessions against Oklahoma are sustained drives (more than 3 plays; they force a 3-and-out 21.2643% of the time; 37; not counting Div IAA game). Additionally, they force turn-overs 18.39% (32) of the time. They also force non-3-and-out punts 13.2183% (23) of the time.

If you add all these numbers up, you hit a category called "potential scoring drives", which means it resulted in either a touchdown, a field goal or a missed field goal. This number is 47.1264% (82) of all drives. They face an average of 14.5 drives per game.

(To contrast that, here are Florida's numbers on defense. Sustained drives: 67.1141% (3-and-out 32.8859% of the time; 49). Turn-overs: 20.1342% (30). Non-3-and-out punts: 10.0671% (15). Potential scoring drives: 36.9128% (55). They face 12.41 drives per game.)

- They get worse as the game goes along.. Oklahoma fans admit this too, but they credit it to 'garbage points'. But there is nothing garbage about Oklahoma State scoring 4 touchdowns on their first 4 drives of the second half when the halftime score was 21-13.

Statistically-speaking, Oklahoma's is best on defense for about three drives to start the game. After that, they get worse. After the 2nd-half, they get statistically much worse.

If you remember, Florida's margin of victory is higher than Oklahoma's, so teams have just as much incentive to score points against our defense in the second half. The difference is, that doesn't happen that often.

Do you think Bob Stoops can count on his defense to not give up 4th-quarter points in a tight game? No.

- They are statistically worse than non-Big XXII teams.. Big XII quarterbacks and scoring offenses have experienced between a 20-and-30 percent drop in efficiency and points. This isn't an isolated case. It happened with every team except Kansas during the Bowl season.

Oklahoma's offense:- They get worse as the game goes along.. Bradford and the first-team offense misses about 15% of all offensive playcalls during the season, but offensive production, passing efficiency and points suffer significantly after the 1st-quarter. Thirty-four-percent (34.2465%) happens in the first-quarter. This is when Bradford's passing efficiency rating is at its highest. In fact, nearly 70% of the offensive numbers for Oklahoma happens in the first-half. Like I said, Bradford plays 85% of the game on offense, so it's not like he intentionally sucks. He's about half as effective, ratings-wise, in the 2nd-half of football games.

Again, do you think Bob Stoops can count on his offense to come through in a shoot-out in the 2nd-half? Didn't work against Texas. Oklahoma got outscored 25-14 in the second half.

After all that, here is how I see it playing out.

Oklahoma will probably score about 10-17 points in the first quarter, if things go right with them. Florida will probably trail. Just my opinion.

But the thing to remember is that Oklahoma is like a sprinter. Florida is a marathon runner. Every statistic I've looked at suggests this kind of dynamic. Oklahoma will get gassed in the 2nd-quarter and Florida will start to dominate from that point in the game to it's conclusion.

Final Score Prediction: Florida 55, Oklahoma 27.

[Hot Rod]

But the thing to remember is that Oklahoma is like a sprinter. Florida is a marathon runner. Every statistic I've looked at suggests this kind of dynamic. Oklahoma will get gassed in the 2nd-quarter and Florida will start to dominate from that point in the game to it's conclusion.

Remember how much time Bradford has played in the 3rd and 4th qtrs. :rolleyes:

[RedstickSooner]

I think you're being foolhardy if you conclude that we somehow start to suck in the second half. The reason EVERY single aspect of our production drops in the second half is that we dominate teams SO CONVINCINGLY in the first half that we take the rest of the game off.

The only example your buddy was able to come up with where we were behind was Tejas, and guess what the MASSIVE drop off entailed?

Yup. We only scored *two* touchdowns in the second half, instead of *three*.

Time to panic, yo.

[The Maestro]

this is copied and pasted from a poster on http://mudlizard.com/swamp I thought it was rather interesting take between the two teams.

After extensive statistical research, there are a few observations I think bear some weight into the game with Florida.

Oklahoma's defense:

- Has a problem stopping drives. Like I pointed out earlier, 78.7357% of offensive possessions against Oklahoma are sustained drives (more than 3 plays; they force a 3-and-out 21.2643% of the time; 37; not counting Div IAA game). Additionally, they force turn-overs 18.39% (32) of the time. They also force non-3-and-out punts 13.2183% (23) of the time.

If you add all these numbers up, you hit a category called "potential scoring drives", which means it resulted in either a touchdown, a field goal or a missed field goal. This number is 47.1264% (82) of all drives. They face an average of 14.5 drives per game.

(To contrast that, here are Florida's numbers on defense. Sustained drives: 67.1141% (3-and-out 32.8859% of the time; 49). Turn-overs: 20.1342% (30). Non-3-and-out punts: 10.0671% (15). Potential scoring drives: 36.9128% (55). They face 12.41 drives per game.)

- They get worse as the game goes along.. Oklahoma fans admit this too, but they credit it to 'garbage points'. But there is nothing garbage about Oklahoma State scoring 4 touchdowns on their first 4 drives of the second half when the halftime score was 21-13.

Statistically-speaking, Oklahoma's is best on defense for about three drives to start the game. After that, they get worse. After the 2nd-half, they get statistically much worse.

If you remember, Florida's margin of victory is higher than Oklahoma's, so teams have just as much incentive to score points against our defense in the second half. The difference is, that doesn't happen that often.

Do you think Bob Stoops can count on his defense to not give up 4th-quarter points in a tight game? No.

- They are statistically worse than non-Big XXII teams.. Big XII quarterbacks and scoring offenses have experienced between a 20-and-30 percent drop in efficiency and points. This isn't an isolated case. It happened with every team except Kansas during the Bowl season.

Oklahoma's offense:- They get worse as the game goes along.. Bradford and the first-team offense misses about 15% of all offensive playcalls during the season, but offensive production, passing efficiency and points suffer significantly after the 1st-quarter. Thirty-four-percent (34.2465%) happens in the first-quarter. This is when Bradford's passing efficiency rating is at its highest. In fact, nearly 70% of the offensive numbers for Oklahoma happens in the first-half. Like I said, Bradford plays 85% of the game on offense, so it's not like he intentionally sucks. He's about half as effective, ratings-wise, in the 2nd-half of football games.

Again, do you think Bob Stoops can count on his offense to come through in a shoot-out in the 2nd-half? Didn't work against Texas. Oklahoma got outscored 25-14 in the second half.

After all that, here is how I see it playing out.

Oklahoma will probably score about 10-17 points in the first quarter, if things go right with them. Florida will probably trail. Just my opinion.

But the thing to remember is that Oklahoma is like a sprinter. Florida is a marathon runner. Every statistic I've looked at suggests this kind of dynamic. Oklahoma will get gassed in the 2nd-quarter and Florida will start to dominate from that point in the game to it's conclusion.

Final Score Prediction: Florida 55, Oklahoma 27.

Good Will Hunting approach to football...yawn.

[Schoonerbeer]

What a dreamer!!!!!!!!!




----------------------------BOOMER SOONER------------------------------

[yukonsooner]

Who are you guys trying to convinence that Florida will win with all these statistics? Yourselves? I'm sorry, but I'm tired of reading all of these stats. I'm tired of hearing your players tell everyone how bad the Sooners are, I'm tired of hearing the talking heads expound on the greatness of Teebow and the Gators. I'm a Sooner through and through and I believe with all my being that the Sooners are going to play to the best of their ability and give it their all for a win, The stats make absolutely no difference, as has been said by coaches every year, "any team can beat any other team on any given day." I hope and believe we will win, but if we don't I'll still be 100% a Sooner come Friday. That's a stat you can count on.

[starclassic tama]

that was the most ridiculous thing i have ever read, and not just because it predicted florida as the winner. "get worse as the game goes along", that's one way to spin it, especially since we averaged over 35 points in THE FIRST HALF. of course your offense is going to fall off when you are up by that wide of a margin in the first half.

entering the SEC championship game, tebow was 0-5 as a career starter trailing in the second half. that went to 1-5 after the SEC title game. what does that tell you? tebow has a hard time throwing when he needs to.

[1890MilesToNorman]

Florida has already stated they are going to give up 16 points to the Sooners, the rest we will just take. :D

[tommieharris91]

How does OU run up the score with an offense that "gets worse as the game goes along?"

[starclassic tama]

you can mark this down, if florida wins the game, it will be because they controlled the game from the beginning and throughout from running the ball/play action passes. if our defense shows up like it has in some big games this year, and we slow down florida's run game, tebow CANNOT shoot it out with bradford. that's not his game.

[JLEW1818]

ONLY 1 MORE DAY OF HEARING GATOR FANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Hot Rod]

ONLY 1 MORE DAY OF HEARING GATOR FANS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Friday morning will sure be quiet.

[XFollower]

Why do we even dare step into the arena with such a dominate opponent. Please wave the white flag now before our boys are crushed to pieces. Ohhh I beg you to surrender!


I've had it. I feel like we could win and win big.

[Czar Soonerov]

The whole thing had me giggling, but this was definitely the punch line.


Oklahoma will get gassed in the 2nd-quarter and Florida will start to dominate from that point in the game to it's conclusion.

Final Score Prediction: Florida 55, Oklahoma 27.[/I]

[soonermix]

well listen to these stats real quick.

so in the first 32.39384% of the game the top 81.893% of the players with the lowest percentage of game time per half usually ends up winning 51.009% of all away games on friday where the kicker's 100% from under 70 yards with 3 mph winds coming out of the SE

so clearly that means that one of the teams playing in the game tomorrow will win

[TMcGee86]

He's about half as effective, ratings-wise, in the 2nd-half of football games.

:rolleyes: This takes the cake for retarded analysis.

OU was up 41-0 on Washington a min into the second half.

OU was up 28-0 on Baylor at the end of the FIRST QUARTER.

OU was up 28-0 on A&M at the end of the FIRST QUARTER.

OU was up 35-0 against Neb in the FIRST QUARTER.

OU was up 28-7 at KSU in the FIRST QUARTER.

OU was up 42-7 on TTU at the half.

OU was up 38-7 on Mizzou at the half.



And you come here with the genius analysis that OU didn't score as much in the second halves of games????

YOU THINK???

And yet we still had people blasting them for running up the score. Can you imagine what would have happened had they kept the foot to the floor the whole game all year?

[The Maestro]

Can you imagine what would have happened had they kept the foot to the floor the whole game all year?

Probably another 150 points...easily! Like I have said, I am curious what our numbers would have been if Billy Tubbs were the OU Football Director of Mercy. He would have just yelled across the field as Sam trotted out for four quarters every game, "GET BETTER!!!"

[Bourbon St Sooner]

He mentions the orange aggie game as an example of our defense getting worse as the game went along. As I remember it, the only score aggie had in the 4th quarter was a kickoff return for a td. Other than that, their offense did zip in that last quarter with the game on the line.

[OKC-SLC]

JGATOR, i've got two words for the poster of that original statistical clusterfock:


significant.

digits.

[devOUt]

We scored 28 points against Nebraska in the first five minutes of the game. I guess our offense did get worse as the game went on.

[olevetonahill]

And the Idjits still green . :eek:

[TXBOOMER]

:rolleyes: This takes the cake for retarded analysis.

OU was up 41-0 on Washington a min into the second half.

OU was up 28-0 on Baylor at the end of the FIRST QUARTER.

OU was up 28-0 on A&M at the end of the FIRST QUARTER.

OU was up 35-0 against Neb in the FIRST QUARTER.

OU was up 28-7 at KSU in the FIRST QUARTER.

OU was up 42-7 on TTU at the half.

OU was up 38-7 on Mizzou at the half.



And you come here with the genius analysis that OU didn't score as much in the second halves of games????

YOU THINK???

And yet we still had people blasting them for running up the score. Can you imagine what would have happened had they kept the foot to the floor the whole game all year?


JGATOR's analysis is the typical Forrest Gump SEC analysis. Hey dum dum gimme some gum gum!

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

jgator, i know you probably found this interesting but you guys are beating yourselves against numbers without significance.

for example - i loved the wishbone. OU made it into one of the most intricate dances college football has ever seen. however, i also knew an ugly secret about the wishbone - if we were down by 2 scores in the 4th quarter, we were screwed.

applied here - which team is most likely to score points while trailing? texas tech or alabama? pokey state or arkansas? you see, texas tech changes...nothing. alabama has to abandon the run. etc. etc.

i could go on and on. stats don't tell the why of the matchups, and the matchups are all that matter.

[Salt City Sooner]

He mentions the orange aggie game as an example of our defense getting worse as the game went along. As I remember it, the only score aggie had in the 4th quarter was a kickoff return for a td. Other than that, their offense did zip in that last quarter with the game on the line.
We also got TOTALLY screwed on a fumble recovery to start the 2nd half. How much does the dynamic of that game change if the right call is made & OU cashes it in?

[Dan Thompson]

Man, my head hurts after trying to read that. Are we really doomed now, I can make any sense of it all.

[StoopTroup]

When some tard comes on an opponent's board and starts trying to convince the oppostion fans of his team's greatness...it just amazes me when he's able to post another bait thread.

You want to come over and talk to us about our good points hey...even areas where you have a guy that when matched up nose to nose...it should be a great match up to isolate a few times during the game....hell bring it on.

What mostly had been tolerated here IMO...isn't good banter...it's baiting. This is another one. I would never go to an opposition board and try to pull this kind of crap.

It's condesending, arrogant and a waste of time for real OU Fans as well as just freaking rude.

We never gave guys like this a pass before...I'm not going to the night before the National Championship Game.

He's had over a month to post his views. Time to head back and plead to be re-instated on the gator board they locked you out of IMO.

[olevetonahill]

What ST said .
I joined a Gator Board right after we Knew who we were Playin . I posted 20 times or so . Aint been Back .
:P

[TXHornsFan]

Maybe the one kernel of useful info in this is the difference in number of possessions per game. OU averages 2 more than does Fla. I expected the number to be higher. Most of the Big 12 teams play quick-strike, which means the ball chnages hands more quickly whether the team scores or not. Thus more possessions, more chances to score - not to mention more kick returns, more interceptions, etc. - all leading to higher scores.

By limiting the number of possessions and by avoiding turnovers, Fla. can keep the score within reach. This was on display in the Fiesta Bowl. UT struggled to reach 24 despite almost 500 yards of offfense. Why? OSU maintained good field position and did not have any turnovers. Every UT drive started at their own 25 or worse. No short fields. That means longer and more time-consuming drives, which means fewer chances to score and greater margin for error. A couple of drives stalled after 3 or 4 first downs and 40 or more yards because of one negative play. OSU did not really slow down UT's offense. UT gained more yards than any OSU opponent, and over 170 passing yards more than any OSU opponent. UT had 140 more total yards than USC, who put up 35 points. Bot OSU's ability to slow down the game and make UT start drives 80 yards away kept the score low.

Fla. will try to use the same recipe. If OU gets off to a fast start, the number could get high. But if OU only gets a couple of possessions in the first quarter, and Fla. is moving the ball some, the game could resemble the Fiesta Bowl.

[olevetonahill]

Maybe the one kernel of useful info in this is the difference in number of possessions per game. OU averages 2 more than does Fla. I expected the number to be higher. Most of the Big 12 teams play quick-strike, which means the ball chnages hands more quickly whether the team scores or not. Thus more possessions, more chances to score - not to mention more kick returns, more interceptions, etc. - all leading to higher scores.

By limiting the number of possessions and by avoiding turnovers, Fla. can keep the score within reach. This was on display in the Fiesta Bowl. UT struggled to reach 24 despite almost 500 yards of offfense. Why? OSU maintained good field position and did not have any turnovers. Every UT drive started at their own 25 or worse. No short fields. That means longer and more time-consuming drives, which means fewer chances to score and greater margin for error. A couple of drives stalled after 3 or 4 first downs and 40 or more yards because of one negative play. OSU did not really slow down UT's offense. UT gained more yards than any OSU opponent, and over 170 passing yards more than any OSU opponent. UT had 140 more total yards than USC, who put up 35 points. Bot OSU's ability to slow down the game and make UT start drives 80 yards away kept the score low.

Fla. will try to use the same recipe. If OU gets off to a fast start, the number could get high. But if OU only gets a couple of possessions in the first quarter, and Fla. is moving the ball some, the game could resemble the Fiesta Bowl.

Fer a :texan: Ya Made sense But I negged Ya anyway :D

[soonerfanlv]

I hate to tell you this but, that isn't chum in the water of you and your partner’s jacuzzi.

:eek: