Explain to me why the Gators are favored?

[stoopified]

I'm sitting here looking at the season for both teams and I just don't get it.In 13 games Florida has played EIGHT teams with winning records and (3) Final BCS Top 25 teams going 2-1.

Hawaii (7-6)
Miami-Fl. (7-5)
Ole Miss (8-4) #25 UF lost at home
LSU (7-5)
Georgia (9-3)#15
South Carolin ( ( 7-5)
Florida State (8-4)
Alabama #4

The Sooners played EEIGHT teams with winning records,including (6) Final BCS Top 25 teams going 5-1:

Cincinatti (11-2) #12
Texas Christian (10-2) #11
Texas (11-1) #3 OU's only loss
Kansas (7-5)
Nebraska (8-4)
Texas Tech (11-1) #7
Oklahoma State (9-3) #13
Missouri (9-4) #21

I'm no expert but just looking at the opposition each team played it seems clear that OU has played better teams .That is why the only way I will be surprised is if we lose on Jan. 8.

[Curly Bill]

I don't think they should be favored either.

Is it possible our recent bowl history is playing into this?

...ultimately I think we win by two TD's or more.

[TENBOLLS]

Completely agree.


To win the Big 12 South, you have to practically win the national championship, and the oddsmakers are forgetting that, big time.


I have a buddy of mine going to Vegas the week of the game, and I'm going to send $100 with him to lay on the Sooners.

The second best bet? Texas -8 against OSU. I hate Texas, but I think they cover on this one, + 14 points. The Big 10??? Pretenders!!!


Roll them up, guys. Hard!!!

[SoonerBacker]

Could it be because they are in the SEC and everyone still worships that conference as God's gift to football? After all, they play defense in the SEC and we don't in the Big XII.............:rolleyes:

[sooner ngintunr]

I have a buddy of mine going to Vegas the week of the game, and I'm going to send $100 with him to lay on the Sooners.



please don't.
Lay it on saxet. That way if YOU lose WE don't.

[BoulderSooner79]

The gators are favored because people that but money on the game think so :)

I'm sure the Sooner's recent bowl record is a factor because Stoops has been in charge for all of them. I'm sure the semi-home field is a factor. And people just don't trust the big12 defenses including OU's - which also inflates OU's offensive numbers.

Personally, I think there is a huge unknown here and that is the relative strengths of the 2 conferences. The odds are they are similar, but there has been so little head-to-head play or even common opponents this year, it's hard to say. One conference may well be playing on a different level than the other and I'm not saying I know which one is higher. Almost all the stats are within conference or against weak out of conference teams.

[StormySooner-IN]

You left out the fact that our loss was 'head to head on a neutral field'


Since that makes a huge difference and all...... ;)

[SoonerLB]

The myth that the SEC is the best conference is just that, a MYTH!
The myth that the SEC has the best defenses is a myth, that conference has what, maybe 2 teams that have any kind of offense? The Pac10 would beat up on the SEC on a regular basis, and it's no secret how weak that conference is.
If our players stay focused, we should roll. If they get "chippy" and start making stupid mistakes, then we could have a problem.

[OUAndy1807]

it's also a home game for them.

[MichiganSooner]

They have a great defense. An SEC defense. We ain't seen anything like that. Any more questions?

[OULenexaman]

They have a great defense. An SEC defense. We ain't seen anything like that. Any more questions?

nope....your right...and so is OUAndy..makes a good point..and OUr defense is suspect at any given moment...I'm surprised it isn't higher....

[DrZaius]

Haven't you heard....

The Gaytors play in the MOST POWERFUL CONFERENCE IN THE UNIVERSE!

They are favored by 3 as of this post and it should get to at least 10 by gametime.

here is something you can mark in your calendar......

Tim Tebow will be the first NFL player to come out of the closet. Only a hugely powerful player of thuper magnanimous proportions can be THE ONE

[SteelCitySooner]

I like that they are favored. I'm tired of being favored in Bowl games. Lets try something different.

[SoonerBoognish]

Haven't you heard....

The Gaytors play in the MOST POWERFUL CONFERENCE IN THE UNIVERSE!

They are favored by 3 as of this post and it should get to at least 10 by gametime.

here is something you can mark in your calendar......

Tim Tebow will be the first NFL player to come out of the closet. Only a hugely powerful player of thuper magnanimous proportions can be THE ONE

Neo? I wonder if the red pill is considered a performance enhancer?

[Iam4OUru]

They have a great defense. An SEC defense. We ain't seen anything like that. Any more questions?


We have a great offense. A Big 12 offense. They ain't seen anything like that. Any more questions?

[OULenexaman]

Haven't you heard....

The Gaytors play in the MOST POWERFUL CONFERENCE IN THE UNIVERSE!

They are favored by 3 as of this post and it should get to at least 10 by gametime.

here is something you can mark in your calendar......

Tim Tebow will be the first NFL player to come out of the closet. Only a hugely powerful player of thuper magnanimous proportions can be THE ONE
Tebow would be a great TE in the NFL at best...his flutter ball pass will never work in that league...only way it would go to 10 is if Sam's hand falls off when they take off the cast...won't happen...

[SoonerFanInAustin]

I like being the dog too....

we all know that our past history is playing into this spread and the fact the game is in Fla....both pts have already been made.

I'm sure the other small pt in Fla's favor, the SEC is 4-0 in BCS Championship games (Tenn - 1998, LSU - 2003, Florida - 2006 and LSU - 2007)

[sendbaht]

me too, I like us being the underdog, just like in 2000 with we chased 40 yold Chris Winkie all over the field, that was so funny, love that game so much!

[BigTip]

I don't get this either. We're two points better in Sagarin rating. And even if you give Florida 3 points for "home" field advantage, that's still them by only one.

Giving them "home field" might be a stretch anyway. It's not like the stadium will be filled with Florida students there on $10 tickets. I thought it would open at pick'em.

I don't mind though. All the better for all the bets I'm making.

[Partial Qualifier]

2-0n8WvrGjc

[OULenexaman]

we were a way BIGGER dog in 2000....but I do love the dog status....the whole country and media gave us no chance in hell that year against grandpa QB and grandpa coach...

[OULenexaman]

THAT WAS GREAT PQ....thanks...

[catsigater]

We're favored by what, 3 right now? OUAndy is right. That's just the home field advantage. You can't possibly take that as a slap.

And its also true the Big 12 is seen as defensively a bit suspect. But 3 points isn't anything, IMO. That's probably about right. Any other movements in the point spread (other than Vegas just moving the line) will be due to injury reports or dramatic coaching news, which I think we've already gone through.

[HungaryGator]

From a Gator perspective, I'd attribute it to two things.

1) UF's higher ranking in Defense.

2) the fact that being in Florida, there will likely be a lot more Gators than Sooners in the crowd.

The question none of us can possibly know is.....are the Big 12 Offenses that good or the Defenses that bad? I have no idea since we haven't faced any of the Big 12's more prolific offensive teams and to my knowledge, none of our opponents this year have either.

[goingoneight]

I don't get why people are surprised by the line on the game. I also don't get why people keep looking at stats to determine who's who in college football. If you watched the Alabama/Florida game last weekend and you know anything about football, you'd understand why people are high on the Gators. Add insult to injury, when was the last time we lined up and didn't get spanked in a BCS game?
Do we know who is playing MLB? If it's Box, is his knee really ready for their speedsters? Are we going to be able to run OUr offense, or are we going to have to dumb it down because of Sam's left hand? Did we just magically come up with a kickoff coverage team? Has anyone with a pulse defensively challenged OU this year? I'm pretty sure their D is going to be just a little bit amped up playing in front of a pro-Gator crowd.

We could show up and surprise me, we could play the best game we've played in years... or... we could do what the odds are favoring, which is struggle with field position, cough up the big play on defense and get into another Fiesta-ish nightmare. I do think we have a chance, I'm just not stupid enough to completely ignore what I've seen, and that's a good Florida team. Just as soon as we assume someone "can't handle this" or "can't do that" against us, we end up looking like :stunned: as of late.

"Pat White can't throw the ball..."
"Matt Leinart is a second-rate quarterback..."
"Boise State can't hang with OU's speed and athleticism..."
"LSU can't stop OU's offense..."

Need I remind the homers that some people on this board had Texas down for a minimum of four losses in 2008, some thought Missouri was a National Championship contender (which was laughable even last year), some thought Washington and A&M would take us down to the wire and I'm sure everyone assumed Bob Stoops might field a good special teams unit this year. In other words, I like the optimism... but let's not be stupid here. Florida has earned their way here and the ball is in their court until we go and steal it.

[OULenexaman]

From a Gator perspective, I'd attribute it to two things.

1) UF's higher ranking in Defense.

2) the fact that being in Florida, there will likely be a lot more Gators than Sooners in the crowd.

The question none of us can possibly know is.....are the Big 12 Offenses that good or the Defenses that bad? I have no idea since we haven't faced any of the Big 12's more prolific offensive teams and to my knowledge, none of our opponents this year have either.

you make a good point....and I hope we are more Hungry..:D :D

[oumartin]

maybe its cuz they believe florida is better, or how about the monumental choke job that OU pulled last year or even their last national title appearance.

i think it all weighs in

[goingoneight]

I'd love to think Florida is going to be like TCU was, but they have obviously better athletes on offense than TCU did. NTM, all it takes is one team being "hungrier" than the other to force a great offense (OU's offense) into mistakes.

Ball control... man up on both lines of scrimmage and cover kickoffs is my biggest concern.

[sooner_brandon]

Looking for a caravan to Miami anybody got one going?

[IBleedCrimson]

gotta be a combo of OUr bowl history, fact it's a gator home game, and that the tebowla virus is viewed as the second coming. I luv every minute of being an underdog . gonna be that much sweeter when we win

[Knippz]

From a Gator perspective, I'd attribute it to two things.

1) UF's higher ranking in Defense.

2) the fact that being in Florida, there will likely be a lot more Gators than Sooners in the crowd.

The question none of us can possibly know is.....are the Big 12 Offenses that good or the Defenses that bad? I have no idea since we haven't faced any of the Big 12's more prolific offensive teams and to my knowledge, none of our opponents this year have either.

We'll see. :D

[Flagstaffsooner]

http://eastcoast.blytheco.com/images/eastcoast_map.jpg

[Knippz]

The media influences almost everything in this age. There's your answer.

[tommieharris91]

maybe its cuz they believe florida is better, or how about the monumental choke job that OU pulled last year or even their last national title appearance.

i think it all weighs in

This far into the season, Vegas bases lines on what happened this season. I think Vegas has Florida as the favorite because they've been blowing out teams with (supposedly) good defenses. For example, South Carolina is a top 10 defense. Florida put 56 on them.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Based on some comments in other threads I'd have to say:

Cuz they be fast, yo!

[Leroy Lizard]

I can fix the betting line about five minutes before the game is started. If Bob has a pale complexion and looks like he saw a ghost, Florida should be about a 30 point favorite.

[Crucifax Autumn]

I can fix the betting line about five minutes before the game is started. If Bob has a pale complexion and looks like he saw a ghost, Florida should be about a 30 point favorite.

And if our opponent is still Florida at game time I say OU by 24.


Or maybe it oughtta be...if all our guys are back and healthy then OU by 36.

Or maybe...If Stoops dies, Venables eats chili before the game, Sam gets the flu, all 3 running backs are arrested, someone steals a coat, someone else steals some gas, and the ebtire defense gets jobs at car dealerships then we lose by 2!

[Half a Hundred]

This far into the season, Vegas bases lines on what happened this season. I think Vegas has Florida as the favorite because they've been blowing out teams with (supposedly) good defenses. For example, South Carolina is a top 10 defense. Florida put 56 on them.

Don't discount the media effect on the line, however. Vegas knows that more people buy into this "SEC is the greatest" line of thinking, and do not want to give them too much of a discount. I'm guessing Vegas thinks of the game as a push, while giving them a few points for location and ESPN effect.

[Scott D]

This thread is a giant facepalm.

Florida has a much larger population than Oklahoma. Therefore there are a lot more betting dollars statistically based in Florida. Therefore, putting the line in a game that can be viewed relatively as a push in favor of the state with the larger population guarantees Vegas more action.

This has been your Vegas line PSA.

[SailorCowboy]

I can tell you why the gators are favored....uhhh cause they are a better team.

[tommieharris91]

Don't discount the media effect on the line, however. Vegas knows that more people buy into this "SEC is the greatest" line of thinking, and do not want to give them too much of a discount. I'm guessing Vegas thinks of the game as a push, while giving them a few points for location and ESPN effect.

The media has absolutely nothing to do with the line when it opens.

[birddog]

I can tell you why the gators are favored....uhhh cause they are a better team.

what an insightful analysis. thank you for your contribution.

being a sailor i'll bet your pants fill up when you see timmy boy.

[A-M]

Could it be because they are in the SEC and everyone still worships that conference as God's gift to football? After all, they play defense in the SEC and we don't in the Big XII.............:rolleyes:

...this and the fact that we have lost a couple of BCS games in the past.:D

[fossil]

I watched the entire Florida vs Alabama SEC championship game again yesterday. Sooners definitely have a good chance of winning this game. If the O'line gives Bradford the time he needs, he will have a good day. The Florida defense just didn't look that fantastic and especially if the Sooners can establish the run game, this one will be fun to watch.

My only concern right now is with kickoff and punt coverage by the special teams and hopefully, coaches are working on getting some of that problems traightened out. Do we start any of our first tem defensive guys on those coverage teams?

Not sure why everyone seems to be favoring the Gators, but I like the underdog role. I can't wait for kickoff. I'm gonna be nervous as hell though until the Sooners pull away.

[Gator515151]

As far as compairing schedules as the original poster did, you can go through those schedules and pick&choose however you want. For instance he pointed out both teams played 8 teams with winning records and more of Oklahoma's are in the BCS top 25. He didn't point out that 10 of Florida's opponents are going to bowl games as opposed to just 8 of Oklahoma's. I am not saying Florida's schedule is any tougher just that you can cherry pick those stats all day. By changing one word you could change that opening statement to--Only 3 of Florida's opponents have loseing records as opposed to 5 of Oklahoma's.

As far as Florida's loss I agree our loss was bad being a home loss but I think what us as fans don't consider that maybe the odds makers do is margin of victory. UF lost by 1 point at home, factoring in that home field advantage is usually considered +3 that makes Florida's loss a 4 point loss in statistical terms. Oklahoma's on the other hand was a 10 point loss. Keep in mind I am not argueing the point that Oklahoma's loss was to a much tougher team.

There are so many factors that enter into these things. I am sure the Gamblers have looked at Oklahoma's recient bowl records and the fact that the SEC has won the last 2 BCS Championships by huge margins over heavily favored teams. I would guess Florida's Defense is looked at as slightly better than OU's and the odds maker love defenses. I would imagine the game being played in Miami has a little to do with it too. No doubt it will be a Florida crowd, especially in today's economy.

[gatorsownu2]

(1) SEC Defense
(2) OU Chokes in last 4 BCS games
(3) No reason to think that #2 will change this year:confused:
(4) Tim Teebow:eek:
(5) Mercy Percy Harvin:eek: :eek:
(6) Rainey :eek: :eek: :eek:
(7) Demps :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
(8) Spikes :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
(9) Fastest team in America:hot:
(10) Still:confused:

[mpb417]

^^^^^what he said

[Knippz]

(1) SEC Defense
(2) OU Chokes in last 4 BCS games
(3) No reason to think that #2 will change this year:confused:
(4) Tim Teebow:eek:
(5) Mercy Percy Harvin:eek: :eek:
(6) Rainey :eek: :eek: :eek:
(7) Demps :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
(8) Spikes :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
(9) Fastest team in America:hot:
(10) Still:confused:

(1) OU offense
(2) OU defense (bank on it)
(3) Big game experience
(4) Bradford
(5) DeMarco
(6) Chris Brown
(7) Gresham
(8) Juaquin
(9) Broyles
(10) Manny Johnson
(11) Mossis
(12) Chaney
(13) Best O-line
(14) Clapp
(15) Gerald McCoy
(16) Auston English (who contains QBs, we didn't have him against OSU)
(17) "The New 28"
(18) Dominique Franks
(19) Keenan Clayton
(20) Nick "Swagger" Harris


There's 20 reasons. What are these reasons for? You'll see.

[gatorsownu2]

(1) OU offense
(2) OU defense (bank on it)
(3) Big game experience
(4) Bradford
(5) DeMarco
(6) Chris Brown
(7) Gresham
(8) Juaquin
(9) Broyles
(10) Manny Johnson
(11) Mossis
(12) Chaney
(13) Best O-line
(14) Clapp
(15) Gerald McCoy
(16) Auston English (who contains QBs, we didn't have him against OSU)
(17) "The New 28"
(18) Dominique Franks
(19) Keenan Clayton
(20) Nick "Swagger" Harris


There's 20 reasons. What are these reasons for? You'll see.

I can live with that. If thats your reason the Gators are favored then so be it.:D

[mwamondwe]

Well, the real answer is simple and any other explanation is just garbage.

Vegas thinks more people will bet on the Gators than the Sooners.

[OU_Sooners75]

Stoops called the bookies in Vegas. He told them to create some motivational aspects that he could use to keep his team into the game.

Let's face it guys. This will be just the 2nd Bowl Game we have been considered underdogs under Stoops tutelage. The last time we were underdogs it was against a Florida team in Florida for all the marbles.

[Scott D]

Well, the real answer is simple and any other explanation is just garbage.

Vegas thinks more people will bet on the Gators than the Sooners.

reality is lost on the people in this thread.

[OU_Sooners75]

From a Gator perspective, I'd attribute it to two things.

1) UF's higher ranking in Defense.

2) the fact that being in Florida, there will likely be a lot more Gators than Sooners in the crowd.

The question none of us can possibly know is.....are the Big 12 Offenses that good or the Defenses that bad? I have no idea since we haven't faced any of the Big 12's more prolific offensive teams and to my knowledge, none of our opponents this year have either.

Texas 52 Arkansas 10
Florida 38 Arkansas 3.

There is one commonality.

Citadel 24 UTC 21
Florida 10 Citadel 19
Oklahoma 57 UTC 2

[OU_Sooners75]

As far as compairing schedules as the original poster did, you can go through those schedules and pick&choose however you want. For instance he pointed out both teams played 8 teams with winning records and more of Oklahoma's are in the BCS top 25. He didn't point out that 10 of Florida's opponents are going to bowl games as opposed to just 8 of Oklahoma's. I am not saying Florida's schedule is any tougher just that you can cherry pick those stats all day. By changing one word you could change that opening statement to--Only 3 of Florida's opponents have loseing records as opposed to 5 of Oklahoma's.

As far as Florida's loss I agree our loss was bad being a home loss but I think what us as fans don't consider that maybe the odds makers do is margin of victory. UF lost by 1 point at home, factoring in that home field advantage is usually considered +3 that makes Florida's loss a 4 point loss in statistical terms. Oklahoma's on the other hand was a 10 point loss. Keep in mind I am not argueing the point that Oklahoma's loss was to a much tougher team.

There are so many factors that enter into these things. I am sure the Gamblers have looked at Oklahoma's recient bowl records and the fact that the SEC has won the last 2 BCS Championships by huge margins over heavily favored teams. I would guess Florida's Defense is looked at as slightly better than OU's and the odds maker love defenses. I would imagine the game being played in Miami has a little to do with it too. No doubt it will be a Florida crowd, especially in today's economy.

WOW...this is some of the best BS that I have read in quite some time.

1. You cannot compare losing to Texas in Dallas with losing to Ole Miss in Gainsville.
2. OU has had 2 opponents overall worse than anything Florida Played. However OU's past opponents record is 2.5 games better than Floridas.

OU's opponent record = 79-46
Florida's opponent record = 76-48
3. Defense has ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO DO WITH THE SPREAD! Fact is, they are figuring that since it is in Florida, that Florida will actually be the home team. And home teams in Vegas get a default -3.0 points in their favor. How the spread is set now, Vegas actually thinks both teams are even. If there is movement before the game, it has nothing to do with injuries or coaching changes. It has everything to do with Vegas wanting to keep the betting 50/50. So they will change the spread to fit the bets. If more people are betting in Florida's favor, then they will raise the point spread. If more are betting in Oklahoma's favor, then they will lower the points spread, or make OU favored.

[OU_Sooners75]

(1) SEC Defense
(2) OU Chokes in last 4 BCS games
(3) No reason to think that #2 will change this year:confused:
(4) Tim Teebow:eek:
(5) Mercy Percy Harvin:eek: :eek:
(6) Rainey :eek: :eek: :eek:
(7) Demps :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
(8) Spikes :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
(9) Fastest team in America:hot:
(10) Still:confused:

:texan:

[OUAlumni1990]

Maybe Gators are favored because Vegas wants people to lose alot of money :D

[stoopified]

As One poster mentioned I chose to compare Top 25 teams and teams with with winning records vs. OU and Florida.That is true,I did ignore UF's wins over 6-6 teams but IMHO .500 teams are not worthy of mention and SHOULD NOT be bowl eliigible.That to me proves that there are way too many bowls,when you need 6-6 teams to fill the slots.I don't care that UF is favored,I just don't get it.

Uf can point to great defense but the fact remains only 3SEC QBS are nationally ranked in PE or yards.The SEC arguement is they are a running league BUT if you check the stats you find the Big 12 not only passes better but runs the ball just as well.

It boils down to a chicken and egg debate;are SEC defenses so good because the offenses suck or do the offenses suck because the D is so good?Likewise are Big 12 offenses that good or do the defenses suck?The Cotton Bowl matchup between Ole Miss and TT will provide some insight and the BCS CG between OU and UF should answer it once and for all(at least this year).

The idea that OUr 4BCS game losses in the last 5 years have anything to do with this year is lame.If past teams affect the future OU should be 6-0 under Bob in BCS games,not 2-4.Also while the Holiday Bowl is excluded from that streak it was a win over a Top 10 team in UO.

In any case I can't wait for the game and I too am glad to be the underdog,I just don't buy the reasons why.

[Jdog]

Let it be. We want to be the underdog - don't we.
Where we are after the game is what matters.

[OUAlumni1990]

Let it be. We want to be the underdog - don't we.
Where we are after the game is what matters.

yes

[starclassic tama]

kinda surprising that it seems like a lot of you don't know how spreads work. it's not necessarily who they think is the best team, it's what will bring the most money from both sides. which is often pretty close to who they feel is the best team, but that's not what lines are for.

[L-Boy]

Reasons why UF favored, although they weren't in the initial lines, interestingly enough:

- They just beat the #1 ranked team, without Percy Harvin. OK has put up some impressive performances, but have arguably not beat that strong of a team (I do realize you beat TT when they were #1, but the consensus, right or wrong, is they are not as good as initially thought)

- Looking at past few national championships - SEC has fared well. The perception of speed probably plays into this, and OK under Stoops has gotten embarrassed a couple of times on the big stage

- People probably dismiss the Ole Miss loss as a fluke, but don't dismiss OK loss to TX (yes on the neutral field ;) ). You can say that is fair or it isn't, but people tend to think that way.

[JLEW1818]

Ohio State = slow

[MichiganSooner]

nope....your right...and so is OUAndy..makes a good point..and OUr defense is suspect at any given moment...I'm surprised it isn't higher....

Thanks for the support but I was being sarcastic. Truth is, Florida and the rest of the SEC defenses have not seen a Big 12 offense yet. Personally, I want to kick their butts all the way from Miami to Gainesville.

[NawlensGator]

Didn't OU play LSU in 2003? Wasn't there a big 12 offense in that game? Can't remember how many points that Big 12 offense put up that night. Just remember it wasn't many.

Big 10, Big 12, doesn't matter. The secret is the SEC beats teams in the BCS games whose name starts with the letter O (tOSU, OU, etc. 03, 06, 07). This will make No. 4. It's not a statistics thing, it's an alphabet thing.

[Soonersince57]

Didn't OU play LSU in 2003? Wasn't there a big 12 offense in that game? Can't remember how many points that Big 12 offense put up that night. Just remember it wasn't many.

Big 10, Big 12, doesn't matter. The secret is the SEC beats teams in the BCS games whose name starts with the letter O (tOSU, OU, etc. 03, 06, 07). This will make No. 4. It's not a statistics thing, it's an alphabet thing.

:rolleyes:

[slmoore]

Trying to get my post count up so I can share some information about parking situation at NC game. Boomer Sooner!

[AgriGator]

just checking my post count