Breaking Down the Ds

[HateTheWhorns]

All I have been reading of late is how much stronger UFs defense is compared to OUs defense. This is solely based on the disparity in total yards and points allowed. Below is an in depth analysis that should shed some light on just how close (or far apart) the two units are.

Before delving into the defensive statistics and rankings, it should be noted that OU's opponents had 191 possessions this season compared to 151 for UF opponents. With time of possession and takeaways/giveaways being virtually even between the two schools, the key differentiator here appears to be the extraordinarily high number of quick scoring drives that OU had compared to UF.

Total Def - OU is 65th and UF is 9th with OU giving up 80 more yards a game. OU opponents had 3 more possession per game to account for some of this discrepancy. Also, OU's D1 opponents ranked 3,4,6,7,9,12,23,29,33,49,50 & 116 in total offense compared to UF's D1 opponents which ranked 21,37,53,54,55,56,74,88,97,105,115,117 -- a huge disparity in OUs favor. ADVANTAGE - Let's look further.

Rushing Defense - OU is 18th (106 yds/g) & UF is 16th (105 yds/g). OU opponents ranked 7,13,25,34,37,53,76,80,93,95,106, & 114 in rushing offense. UF opponents ranked 23,31,32,43,54,68,77,79,89,97,107, & 109. Quality of opponent slightly favors OU, but not enough to declare an advantage here.
ADVANTAGE - Even

Passing Defense - OU is 99th (253 yds/g) & UF is 19th (174 yds/g). OU opponents were ranked 1,4,8,11,14,18,24,26,43,70,92, & 100 in passing offense. UF opponents were ranked 16,23,33,54,58,67,76,87,96,98,107,112 in passing offense. OU had 9 opponents in the top 50 and 7 in the top 30 compared to 3 and 2 for UF. A huge disparity in OUs favor. With the disparity in quality of opponents and number of possessions, this evens up pretty quickly.
ADVANTAGE - Slight edge to UF

Passing Efficiency Defense - OU is 41st (117.14) and UF is 2nd (94.17). The average PE rating of OU opponents was 145.62 compared to 119.15 of UF opponents. OU held its opponents to 28.48 below the average while UF held their opponents to 24.98 below the opponent average. Again, the level of passing offenses that OU faced was far superior to the UF opponents and the relative impact that we had in holding opponents below their average PE was pretty even. ADVANTAGE - Even

Takeaways - OU is 4th (32) and UF is 3rd (33). ADVANTAGE - Even

Sacks - OU is 3rd (42) and UF is 33rd (32). OU opponents surrendered 273 so we accounted for 15.4% of our opponents sacks. UF opponents surrendered 313 so they accounted for 10.2% of their opponents' sacks.
ADVANTAGE - OU

Tackles For Loss (TFL) - OU is 9th (102) while UF is 85th (67).
ADVANTAGE - OU

3rd Down % - OU is 21st (33%) while UF is 15th (32%).
ADVANTAGE - Even

Red Zone Defense - OU is 46th (80%) while UF is 6th (71%)
ADVANTAGE - UF

First Downs - OU is 62nd (19/g) while UF is 13th (16/g). The primary difference here is the huge disparity in the quality of opposing offenses and the 3 additional possessions per game for OU opponents.
ADVANTAGE - Even

Scoring - OU is ranked 57th (24.5) while UF is ranked 5th (12.8). While UF has a clear lead in this category, it should be noted that 33 of opponent points were scored on kick returns, safeties, and 3 and out FGs. UF only had 3 points of these type scored on them. Also, OU had 4 TDs scored on them in the final seconds of play (of blowouts) against our subs. UF did not give up any last second scores. When you look only at points each defense gave up, the margin narrows to 22-13 in favor of UF. Without the last second scores, the margin narrows further to 20-13, about a one TD difference per game. Again, the caliber of offenses each team played explains much of the disparity.
ADVANTAGE - UF

Summary
1) OU has a clear advantage in the sacks/TFL category.
2) The schools are virtually even in rushing defense, takeaways, 1st downs allowed, 3rd down percentage, and effectiveness against the pass.
3) UF has a clear advantage in passing yards allowed, points allowed, and red zone defense. Do the 3 add'l possessions per game and quality of opponent offenses explain all of the discrepancy here? I think it certainly goes a long way.

Overall, I see these two units as being very close.

[JLEW1818]

Like I said in another thread, I think we can kill them through the air. If Julio Jones did all that to them, we can put 35-42 on the them.

[fadada1]

excellent work. thanks for the info. send this to espn.

spek on the way.

[BoulderSooner79]

No, no!! Don't send this to ESPIN or any other media outlet. Let's keep this no respect, chip on the shoulder thing alive and well :D

[BoulderSooner79]

One other thing I would add to this excellent break down: the defense is playing it's best ball right now. At least it is playing it's best since RR went down. One bad game can add quite a bit to the stats. For example, last week we gave up about 350 yards and 40 of them came on that 1 pass play on the last possesion by the backup QB. That's over 10% of their total yardage for the game! And that one meaningless play added 3yds to our season average. The way we are playing now, there is no way KU or KSU even come close to their points or yardage outputs. Those are the 2 games we struggled most to find a formula after RR was lost and we won both games easily.

Beyond the defense, I think the whole team is playing its best ball right now (yes, even STs) and that's what you hope for. The finishing touch is for the coaches to construct and teach great game plans. If we do all that and don't win, there is nothing to be ashamed of.

[Partial Qualifier]

Great homework indeed. Spek.

[Sooner FLiP]

great read my friend! some good comparison stats as opposed to someone just saying "SEC defense is better than the Big XII".

[HateTheWhorns]

No, no!! Don't send this to ESPIN or any other media outlet. Let's keep this no respect, chip on the shoulder thing alive and well :D

Totally agree. We are at our best when we feel like we have something to prove. There is no reason to enlighten the so-called professionals in the media and have them start propping us up.

I like our chances.

[HateTheWhorns]

TTT

Sorry, but I spent too much time on this for it to drift off into oblivion this quickly.

[SoonerLB]

Nice work HateTheWhorns!

[CatfishSooner]

'preciate it...

[SoonR4Life]

Very good work :)

Thanks for the post!

[SoonerStormchaser]

wow...that was a lot of time used...thanks

[Soonerfan85]

And I was thinking the reason defenses in the SEC appear stronger was simply because offenses in the SEC are less dynamic than in the Big XII.

Nice work HTW.

[HateTheWhorns]

I keep seeing threads and posts about who's defense is better. Everything you want to know about both D's is right here.

:D

[Ike]

So some fun with numbers, which surprisingly (to me anyway...I wasn't quite sure how these were going to turn out...) very much supports the arguments that Florida gets a slight edge in Pass D and that both teams are pretty much equal on Run D.

First, the pass defense:
Florida's opponents (leaving out Citadel) average 6.76 yards per pass attempt. Florida's defense surrendered 5.24 yards per pass attempt.
Oklahoma's opponents (leaving out chattanooga) average 7.93 yards per pass attempt. Oklahoma surrendered 6.81 yards per pass attempt.
If you assume that the opponents average YPA is a good measure of how these offenses would perform against an average defense, then you could say that UF takes away 20% of their opponents expected pass game, and OU takes away 14% of their opponents expected pass game....on average of course.

This would mean that the OU offense could be expected to gain 7.81 yards per pass attempt, and the UF offense could be expected to gain 7.94 yards per pass attempt.

In other words, while the advantage UF has in pass D is pretty much evened out by the OU pass offense*.

If you do the same thing for run defense, you find that both teams could be said to take away 17% of their opponents expected run game. Applying those numbers to the expected YPC of each team, OU would be expected to gain 4.0 yards per carry to UF's 4.95*.



*These expected yards per play makes the assumption that every teams offensive averages, including UF and OU, are 100% indicative of the relative "skill" of each offense. This is of course a stupid assumption, but a fun one to make for the sake of argument....In addition to differences in the defenses each team has faced, these averages can also be skewed by the impact of "garbage time"...where a team getting blown out will often out-perform it's expectations, and the team doing the blowing out will often under-perform expectations.

In other words, this was just some fun-having. Don't read too much into these numbers.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Numbers are fun, but heart will make or break it.

In the meantime though, thanks for posting all this HTH and Ike as well.

[olevetonahill]

****ing Einsteins .
I Think what will Convince me is what the Final Score is the Night of the 8th .:eek:

[Crucifax Autumn]

I just made the leap back home from the 8th and we won pretty dang big!

Tebow got carted off the field in the second quarter and it wasn't an injury...he was paralyzed with fear when he had a close conversation with English on his back in his own end zone after his first attempted jump pass.

[Ike]

Numbers are fun, but heart will make or break it.

In the meantime though, thanks for posting all this HTH and Ike as well.

It's going to come down to more than that...The numbers tell part of the story...and heart will have something to do with that, but it's also going to come down to the quality of the gameplan that each coach puts together, and whether either defense can do something to confound their opponents offense. Both of these offenses are pretty damn strong. I think we have some kind of edge (who knows how much of one) in that we've seen some other strong offenses before, but containing Tebow has to be top priority...

All in all, the way I see it, these two teams are very evenly matched. And the thing that scares me a bit about that is that that puts more importance on special teams and penalties. It always seems to me that we get a large number of penalties per game (I couldn't quickly find stats on this), and I have no idea how often UF gets penalized. But I think those are two knocks against us that could have a deciding impact on the game. I hope they don't. But I think they could.

[olevetonahill]

I just made the leap back home from the 8th and we won pretty dang big!

Tebow got carted off the field in the second quarter and it wasn't an injury...he was paralyzed with fear when he had a close conversation with English on his back in his own end zone after his first attempted jump pass.

Saweet . Thankee fer that . I can sleep now .:D

[Crucifax Autumn]

Yeah, me too. That's why I had Ziggy send me there!

[OPSEC]

It's going to come down to more than that...The numbers tell part of the story...and heart will have something to do with that, but it's also going to come down to the quality of the gameplan that each coach puts together, and whether either defense can do something to confound their opponents offense. Both of these offenses are pretty damn strong. I think we have some kind of edge (who knows how much of one) in that we've seen some other strong offenses before, but containing Tebow has to be top priority...


I agree with Ike. I am betting our D takes about 2 to possessions, or 8 plays, to figure out that they have seen this type of offense before w/ a slight wrinkly or two and start pinning their ears back. I am betting our secondary gets at least 2 picks.

[Oldnslo]

I hope you're right, because our not-so-special teams could well be a negative for us.

[HateTheWhorns]

So some fun with numbers, which surprisingly (to me anyway...I wasn't quite sure how these were going to turn out...) very much supports the arguments that Florida gets a slight edge in Pass D and that both teams are pretty much equal on Run D.

First, the pass defense:
Florida's opponents (leaving out Citadel) average 6.76 yards per pass attempt. Florida's defense surrendered 5.24 yards per pass attempt.
Oklahoma's opponents (leaving out chattanooga) average 7.93 yards per pass attempt. Oklahoma surrendered 6.81 yards per pass attempt.
If you assume that the opponents average YPA is a good measure of how these offenses would perform against an average defense, then you could say that UF takes away 20% of their opponents expected pass game, and OU takes away 14% of their opponents expected pass game....on average of course.

This would mean that the OU offense could be expected to gain 7.81 yards per pass attempt, and the UF offense could be expected to gain 7.94 yards per pass attempt.

In other words, while the advantage UF has in pass D is pretty much evened out by the OU pass offense*.

If you do the same thing for run defense, you find that both teams could be said to take away 17% of their opponents expected run game. Applying those numbers to the expected YPC of each team, OU would be expected to gain 4.0 yards per carry to UF's 4.95*.



*These expected yards per play makes the assumption that every teams offensive averages, including UF and OU, are 100% indicative of the relative "skill" of each offense. This is of course a stupid assumption, but a fun one to make for the sake of argument....In addition to differences in the defenses each team has faced, these averages can also be skewed by the impact of "garbage time"...where a team getting blown out will often out-perform it's expectations, and the team doing the blowing out will often under-perform expectations.

In other words, this was just some fun-having. Don't read too much into these numbers.

The difficult task of assessing the differences in pass defense is the collective strength of offenses that each team played. Statistically, OU played a much superior schedule as it relates to passing offenses. While we had a 14% impact on our opponents in your analysis, would we have had a greater % impact facing the inferior passing offenses that UF faced. Guess we will find out.

I agree with OldnSlo, special teams may be the kicker in deciding this game (no pun intended).

[cvsooner]

It's going to come down to more than that...The numbers tell part of the story...and heart will have something to do with that, but it's also going to come down to the quality of the gameplan that each coach puts together, and whether either defense can do something to confound their opponents offense. Both of these offenses are pretty damn strong. I think we have some kind of edge (who knows how much of one) in that we've seen some other strong offenses before, but containing Tebow has to be top priority...

All in all, the way I see it, these two teams are very evenly matched. And the thing that scares me a bit about that is that that puts more importance on special teams and penalties. It always seems to me that we get a large number of penalties per game (I couldn't quickly find stats on this), and I have no idea how often UF gets penalized. But I think those are two knocks against us that could have a deciding impact on the game. I hope they don't. But I think they could.

Florida: 7 penalties per game, average, for 58 yards.

OU: 7 penalties per game, average, for 67 yards.

According to http://www.cfbstats.com

[PalmBeachSooner]

Florida: 7 penalties per game, average, for 58 yards.

OU: 7 penalties per game, average, for 67 yards.

According to http://www.cfbstats.com

What was up with all of the personal foul penalties the last 2 or 3 games of the season?

I don't think we can get two picks against UF. Unless they fall behind early they will be running it and mostly throwing it when they catch in man coverage. I think we might have a better chance of forcing their RBs to put it on the turf.

[cvsooner]

Penalties the last two or three games I would attribute to "swagger." Ridiculous stuff, really. Just play the game and make the play, if you want to make a statement.

[possumfat]

The "only" thing that concerns me in this game is OUr kicking and return problems.............last thing we need is for T-Bone to start his offense on the 45 or 50 yard line during the game.