noobalicious
12/5/2008, 04:19 PM
Obviously if we lose Texas advances. However, let's say we win. I went through the computer rankings and attempted to project them based on a Bama win and a Florida win. I did a lot of this based on how teams jumped in the rankings against similarly ranked teams (i.e. the Florida-Alabama game is similar to the RRS this year in terms of rankings).
Bama Wins and We Win:
Projected BCS Computer Ranking Avgs:
OU 0.98
Bama 0.98
Texas 0.92
Florida 0.80
Here's how that happens. I think even with a Bama win, our win will be seen as "good enough" by the computers that have us currently ranked #1 to keep us at #1. I took a look at each one. We have a huge edge over Bama in the Sagarin ratings right now (remember he uses ELO Chess in BCS). In Peter Wolfe's rankings we are #1 but with not as large of a margin. However, significant gains are still made in his poll by winning against a top 30-or-so team it seems. And the Massey ratings are extremely complex. I have no idea there, but we are out ahead of the pack fairly well, so I think we'd stay #1 there. The other rankings we should jump to #2. Colley Matrix this is based on simulation. In Billingsley's ratings you only gain or lose points if you play a game, so we'd be locked in at #2 there.
This margin means that Texas has some huge gains to make in the Harris and Coaches Polls. If the Coaches Poll was a DEAD HEAT, they would need to beat us by 171 points in the Harris Poll. If the Harris Poll was a DEAD HEAT, they would need to beat us by 92 points in the Coaches Poll. Or you could take any combination that would allow them to exceed the 0.06 margin they need to make up (i.e. 86 points more in the Harris, 46 more points in the Coaches).
When you consider that we are in a dead heat with them in both polls already, the poll results will be public this week, and Texas is idle, these results are not likely.
Florida Wins and We Win:
Projected BCS Computer Ranking Avgs:
OU 1.00
Texas 0.93
Florida 0.92
Bama 0.82
Obviously if Alabama loses, we will still hang on to our current 3 #1 rankings in the computers. I expect that we'd be in position to move up to #1 in two more if they lose - Anderson & Hester, and the Colley Matrix. The Colley Matrix is based on a simulation and will happen if we win. A&H rankings are spit out as decimals. Right now we are only .007 behind Utah which is at #2. Utah and Texas are 2-3 and they are both idle. Bama is #1. I think we will be able to make up this small difference with a win. 5 #1 computer rankings would give us a perfect computer ranking (highest and lowest thrown out).
It seems as though the SEC CCG loser will probably fall back far enough behind teams in wait like USC and Utah and such to be ranked consistently around #5-#7.
Obviously this is a less likely scenario for Texas to make up the disparity. Even if I'm off by one computer ranking here in the FLA win situation, they'd still need to make up 0.06 BCS points which is unlikely.
Moral of the Story:
Chill! The computers love us enough so that if we win, it is HIGHLY unlikely that we would get jumped by Texas. If we lose, we obviously don't deserve to be there anyways.
What we get is a de-facto national championship semi-final. Winner of SEC CCG advances. We win, we advance, otherwise Texas does.
Simple as pie.
Bama Wins and We Win:
Projected BCS Computer Ranking Avgs:
OU 0.98
Bama 0.98
Texas 0.92
Florida 0.80
Here's how that happens. I think even with a Bama win, our win will be seen as "good enough" by the computers that have us currently ranked #1 to keep us at #1. I took a look at each one. We have a huge edge over Bama in the Sagarin ratings right now (remember he uses ELO Chess in BCS). In Peter Wolfe's rankings we are #1 but with not as large of a margin. However, significant gains are still made in his poll by winning against a top 30-or-so team it seems. And the Massey ratings are extremely complex. I have no idea there, but we are out ahead of the pack fairly well, so I think we'd stay #1 there. The other rankings we should jump to #2. Colley Matrix this is based on simulation. In Billingsley's ratings you only gain or lose points if you play a game, so we'd be locked in at #2 there.
This margin means that Texas has some huge gains to make in the Harris and Coaches Polls. If the Coaches Poll was a DEAD HEAT, they would need to beat us by 171 points in the Harris Poll. If the Harris Poll was a DEAD HEAT, they would need to beat us by 92 points in the Coaches Poll. Or you could take any combination that would allow them to exceed the 0.06 margin they need to make up (i.e. 86 points more in the Harris, 46 more points in the Coaches).
When you consider that we are in a dead heat with them in both polls already, the poll results will be public this week, and Texas is idle, these results are not likely.
Florida Wins and We Win:
Projected BCS Computer Ranking Avgs:
OU 1.00
Texas 0.93
Florida 0.92
Bama 0.82
Obviously if Alabama loses, we will still hang on to our current 3 #1 rankings in the computers. I expect that we'd be in position to move up to #1 in two more if they lose - Anderson & Hester, and the Colley Matrix. The Colley Matrix is based on a simulation and will happen if we win. A&H rankings are spit out as decimals. Right now we are only .007 behind Utah which is at #2. Utah and Texas are 2-3 and they are both idle. Bama is #1. I think we will be able to make up this small difference with a win. 5 #1 computer rankings would give us a perfect computer ranking (highest and lowest thrown out).
It seems as though the SEC CCG loser will probably fall back far enough behind teams in wait like USC and Utah and such to be ranked consistently around #5-#7.
Obviously this is a less likely scenario for Texas to make up the disparity. Even if I'm off by one computer ranking here in the FLA win situation, they'd still need to make up 0.06 BCS points which is unlikely.
Moral of the Story:
Chill! The computers love us enough so that if we win, it is HIGHLY unlikely that we would get jumped by Texas. If we lose, we obviously don't deserve to be there anyways.
What we get is a de-facto national championship semi-final. Winner of SEC CCG advances. We win, we advance, otherwise Texas does.
Simple as pie.