Resident BCS Gurus; Scenarios for Whorns

[htownsooner7]

I apologize ahead of time if there has been duplication, but I think many of us would appreciate a straightforward (as possible) explanation on what type of voting/computer tabulation that would need to happen for the following scenarios for the Whorns:

(1) UT to stay ahead of Florida if Fla wins thus setting up OU-UT in championship; and

(2) UT jumping OU, even assuming an OU win, thus screwing OU out of the championship game.

Thank you in advance. This math is too much for us mere mortals.

[SoonerStormchaser]

Florida has to beat Alabama...but has to look like total **** doing it.

[BermudaSooner]

http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2510510#post2510510

Don't think UT can hold off Florida unless it is an "ugly" win, and even then the computers will love Florida for beating #1 team (as they did when OU beat #12 team).

UT will gain on OU in the computers if Florida wins--question is by how much. My post referenced above shows the worst case scenario in my estimation. Would still need some voters to move to UT from OU, but not that many in this worst case scenario.

[JLEW1818]

http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2510510#post2510510

Don't think UT can hold off Florida unless it is an "ugly" win, and even then the computers will love Florida for beating #1 team (as they did when OU beat #12 team).

UT will gain on OU in the computers if Florida wins--question is by how much. My post referenced above shows the worst case scenario in my estimation. Would still need some voters to move to UT from OU, but not that many in this worst case scenario.

So if Alabama wins its basically mathematically impossible for Texas?'

[cheezyq]

I apologize ahead of time if there has been duplication, but I think many of us would appreciate a straightforward (as possible) explanation on what type of voting/computer tabulation that would need to happen for the following scenarios for the Whorns:

(1) UT to stay ahead of Florida if Fla wins thus setting up OU-UT in championship; and

(2) UT jumping OU, even assuming an OU win, thus screwing OU out of the championship game.

Thank you in advance. This math is too much for us mere mortals.

The problem is that the media universe has been touting Florida as the team to beat. Should they win, they would be contradicting their arguments to leave them behind OU and UT. The computers...it's hard to tell. The computers don't really like the SEC, and so it's possible they drag Florida down a bit...but believe me, the pollsters will not allow that to happen.

Regarding UT/OU, the only way for that to happen is if more pollsters decide UT is better. The computers will only move us up, as we notch another win against a top 25 team.

[humblesooner]

Regarding UT/OU, the only way for that to happen is if more pollsters decide UT is better. The computers will only move us up, as we notch another win against a top 25 team.

IF we beat MU in the same fashion we have been playing, I think the UT lovefest is over. The next vote from coaches is public, so there shouldn't be any bizarre votes, like Mack putting us at #25, Florida at #24, Alabama at #23 and Texas at #1.

[htownsooner7]

I think a Bama win helps, but not secures. If coaches and/or Harris keep going their way, I don't think we are out of the woods.

[noobalicious]

Texas should still have an edge on Florida in the computers. If Florida wins ugly, it's possible they could edge them out. Florida wins ugly and we win solid, I'd say Texas' chances are about 25-30%

I'd say if we win by single digits, or they take us to OT, the texas lovefest will start again and we could get edged out. If we win ugly, I'd say Texas' chances are about 40%.

Otherwise if we lose, it's obvious they're in. Their chances would be close to 100%.

[htownsooner7]

I'm hoping for a 55-28 OU win

[85sooners]

70-3!!!!!!!!

[OUHOMER]

OK, if we are talking what IF.
What if Florida beats Bama in triple overtime by 2 points. What keeps the humans from voting Florida #1 and Bama #2. I dont have a clue where or what that would do to the computers.

Is it possible both OU and Texas miss out???????????

[htownsooner7]

Man, that would be terrible

[noobalicious]

OK, if we are talking what IF.
What if Florida beats Bama in triple overtime by 2 points. What keeps the humans from voting Florida #1 and Bama #2. I dont have a clue where or what that would do to the computers.

Is it possible both OU and Texas miss out???????????

No. Our computer ranking would offset any crap like that from the voters. If we win, we are basically in. See following thread:

http://www.soonerfans.com/forums/showthread.php?t=126267

or

http://www.bcsguru.com

[oubose]

The only scenario for the whorns should have is that they can only fly over once, and thats after mack quits b*tch*ing!

[htownsooner7]

My questions are answered. Boomer!

[shaun4411]

i dont see how an 8 team playoff would screw up the regular season. look at the top 8. its littered with undefeated and 1 loss teams. there isnt a single 2 loss team there, and there are two undefeated teams outside the top 8. this means just to be in the top 8, you still have to perform at the highest of levels; especially if home field advantage is a factor in the first round.

[yermom]

i think the computer edge still may fall with Texas, i would not be surprised if Florida wins and the computers edge Texas over Florida

i don't see any reason that Texas shouldn't be #3 in all the polls, if not higher

[TXHornsFan]

I apologize ahead of time if there has been duplication, but I think many of us would appreciate a straightforward (as possible) explanation on what type of voting/computer tabulation that would need to happen for the following scenarios for the Whorns:

(1) UT to stay ahead of Florida if Fla wins thus setting up OU-UT in championship; and

(2) UT jumping OU, even assuming an OU win, thus screwing OU out of the championship game.

Thank you in advance. This math is too much for us mere mortals.

(1) Texas will stay ahead of Florida in the computers. The question is how much. Most reliable and conservative theory is at least 2 spots - maybe as much as 5. If 2, that keeps Texas ahead in the BCS based on current voting. Florida would need to pick up some votes, but not very many. If Florida wins easily, that should happen. If Texas' lead in the computers is larger, Florida will need additional votes in Harris and coaches polls. That is where it might get interesting.

(2) If OU wins, virtually zero chance Texas jumps over OU. OU's lead in the computers will grow. Texas does not have enough votes now in Harris and coaches polls to counter OU's existing computer lead. When that grows, Texas would need to pick up additional votes, which seems remote.

There is a very slight chance of a Texas/OU rematch. There is no realistic chance of Texas/Florida or Texas/Alabama if OU beats Missouri.

[TXHornsFan]

[QUOTE=yermom;2516772]i think the computer edge still may fall with Texas, i would not be surprised if Florida wins and the computers edge Texas over Florida

i don't see any reason that Texas shouldn't be #3 in all the polls, if not higher[QUOTE]

If Florida and OU both win, as expected, do the voters more or less split their 1st and 2nd votes between Florida and OU? If so, that helps Texas.

Do the voters tilt more to OU for 1st place? If so, that helps Texas.

Do the voters tilt more to Florida? If so, that hurts Texas.

Do many voters - such as SEC homers - keep Alabama in the top 3? If so, that hurts Texas.

Do the voters that had Texas ahead of OU and Florida last week keep that order this week, or do they drop Texas by default?

Still lots of variables in how it plays out.

[batonrougesooner]

I'd love to see OU/TX in the MNC.

[Camomaha]

You won't have to worry about Florida. Bama wins big!

[DenverSooner751]

I'd love to see OU/TX in the MNC.

brsooner,

I'M WITH YOU BUDDY! I would like nothing more than the opportunity to play them again and see a crushing of epic proportions, of course, with OU doing the crushing.

However, even with all the very compelling cases for this to happen, I don't think it will happen, I can't see the voters letting it happen, er, I guess I actually could, they don't seem to comprehen math, such as 39-33, let alone the calc formula that is the BCS.....either way, let's pull for an OU win, a solidification among the ranks of the offensive elite in CFB history and then a trip to Miami. At this point, who we face is less important to me than us having the chance to face said opponent. One thing is for sure, we win tomorrow night, and this is going to be a fun ride.

[OU_Sooners75]

(1) Texas will stay ahead of Florida in the computers. The question is how much. Most reliable and conservative theory is at least 2 spots - maybe as much as 5. If 2, that keeps Texas ahead in the BCS based on current voting. Florida would need to pick up some votes, but not very many. If Florida wins easily, that should happen. If Texas' lead in the computers is larger, Florida will need additional votes in Harris and coaches polls. That is where it might get interesting.

This is pretty much WRONG. Not to be rude, but here is what will happen if Florida beats Bama.

Right now, Florida averages #6 in the computers. If they beat Alabama, that adds a very good win to their resume. They will jump up to #2 or #3 in the computers. And that is detrimental to Texas, especially if OU wins. Right now OU is #1 and Texas is #2 in the computer poll.

If Florida moves to #3, even behind Texas in the computer polls, they will have gained enough to pass Texas in the BCS Standings. Right now The computer % for Florida is 0.820. Alabama which is #3 in the computers has a computer % of 0.920. Texas has a % of 0.940. So I will go out on a limb here and state that those number will be very close to what it would be if Florida wins against Bama. That would give Florida enough movement that they do not have to gain any votes in the Human polls to over take Texas in the BCS standing.


(2) If OU wins, virtually zero chance Texas jumps over OU. OU's lead in the computers will grow. Texas does not have enough votes now in Harris and coaches polls to counter OU's existing computer lead. When that grows, Texas would need to pick up additional votes, which seems remote.

There is a very slight chance of a Texas/OU rematch. There is no realistic chance of Texas/Florida or Texas/Alabama if OU beats Missouri.

The only way Texas jumps OU other than losing to Missouri is if human polls continue to drop OU even after winning. Last week set a precedent in dropping a team for beating a top 15 team when the team that jumped or gained on them beat a team with a losing record. If this pattern continues and they get enough swing votes, then yeah Texas can jump OU. If this happens, then the nation should be crying foul! And if you did not notice, the Harris Poll is the one that gave Texas more movement last week...The Harris poll should not be a part of the BCS!

[TXHornsFan]

This is pretty much WRONG. Not to be rude, but here is what will happen if Florida beats Bama.

Right now, Florida averages #6 in the computers. If they beat Alabama, that adds a very good win to their resume. They will jump up to #2 or #3 in the computers. And that is detrimental to Texas, especially if OU wins. Right now OU is #1 and Texas is #2 in the computer poll.

If Florida moves to #3, even behind Texas in the computer polls, they will have gained enough to pass Texas in the BCS Standings. Right now The computer % for Florida is 0.820. Alabama which is #3 in the computers has a computer % of 0.920. Texas has a % of 0.940. So I will go out on a limb here and state that those number will be very close to what it would be if Florida wins against Bama. That would give Florida enough movement that they do not have to gain any votes in the Human polls to over take Texas in the BCS standing.

You say this is WRONG -and then you make my case for me. If Texas stays at #2 on all the computers, and Florida jumps to #3 - as you suggest - that ends up with a 4 placement difference, or .04 pts., in this case .96 to .92. As I said in my earlier post, the most reasonable proection is betwee .02 and .04 advantage for Texas. That means Florida will have to pick up votes from their current numbers in Harris and coaches. I'm not saying that won't happen, just that the computers will still show an edge to Texas.

[okiewaker]

:pop:

[TXHornsFan]

If Florida moves to #3, even behind Texas in the computer polls, they will have gained enough to pass Texas in the BCS Standings. . . . That would give Florida enough movement that they do not have to gain any votes in the Human polls to over take Texas in the BCS standing.




This is pretty much WRONG. Not to be rude, but if Florida moves to #3 behind Texas in the computer polls, here is what would happen (without any change in the voters):

Harris Coaches Computers BCS Avg.

Florida .9271 .9082 .920 .9184

Texas .9115 .9154 .960 .9289


Even if the computer lead shrinks to .02 (say .095 to .093), it works out to Texas (.9256 BCS) and Florida (.9218). FLorida will need to pick up votes either way.