DocNice
12/4/2008, 06:47 PM
Again, Mizzou fan here. Great board! Here's a new way of breaking down the matchup. I've come up with a new way to break down the matchups, by adding or subtracting points from season averages based on matchups. For example, OU's offensive line might be far better than MU's defensive line, but MU's DL is slightly better than what they faced on average. That should mean that OU scores fewer points. I assign a point value to that. So if our pass rush is slightly better than you're used to seeing, maybe that's worth 3 points, so OU would score 50 instead of your season average of 53.
(add or subtract from OU's average score of 53 points per game)
OU run blocking vs MU run defense: -10
OU pass protection vs MU pass rush: -3
OU Receivers vs MU Secondary: +3
OU score: 43
(add or subtract from MU's average score of 45 points per game)
MU run blocking vs OU run defense: -10
MU pass protection vs OU pass rush: -14
MU Receivers vs OU Secondary: -3
MU Score: 18
Turnovers: OU +7
Special Teams: MU +3
Final score: OU 50, MU 21
Realistically speaking, MU needs goals that are attainable even if difficult. What needs to happen for them to win:
OU pass protection vs MU pass rush: -7 (from -3, this will be the hardest one but a MUST WIN for Mizzou)
OU receivers vs MU Secondary: -3 (from +3, will be hard without Bridges, especially given past mistakes, but with a focused game, MU is more athletic than many of the defenses that the Sooners have burned)
MU pass protection vs OU pass rush: -3 (from -14, this is the biggest key on offense and a MUST WIN for MU, but also attainable)
MU receivers vs OU secondary: 0 (from -3, MU had trouble getting separation against fast defenses, need to get it here)
MU run blocking vs OU run defense: -3 (from -10, this could get going if the pass offense is successful)
Turnovers: MU +3 (from OU+7, MU must win the turnover battle or at least be close)
Best case scenario (if everything went Mizzou's way): OU 33, MU 42
Mizzou doens't need to win all of these battles, and won't. But it HAS to win the pass rush battle on both sides of the football. It doesn't have to be better than OU, just better compared to their average. Pressuring Bradford in particular will be very difficult.
I predict:
OU blowout: 40%
Close OU win: 35%
Close MU win: 24%
MU blowout: 1%
(add or subtract from OU's average score of 53 points per game)
OU run blocking vs MU run defense: -10
OU pass protection vs MU pass rush: -3
OU Receivers vs MU Secondary: +3
OU score: 43
(add or subtract from MU's average score of 45 points per game)
MU run blocking vs OU run defense: -10
MU pass protection vs OU pass rush: -14
MU Receivers vs OU Secondary: -3
MU Score: 18
Turnovers: OU +7
Special Teams: MU +3
Final score: OU 50, MU 21
Realistically speaking, MU needs goals that are attainable even if difficult. What needs to happen for them to win:
OU pass protection vs MU pass rush: -7 (from -3, this will be the hardest one but a MUST WIN for Mizzou)
OU receivers vs MU Secondary: -3 (from +3, will be hard without Bridges, especially given past mistakes, but with a focused game, MU is more athletic than many of the defenses that the Sooners have burned)
MU pass protection vs OU pass rush: -3 (from -14, this is the biggest key on offense and a MUST WIN for MU, but also attainable)
MU receivers vs OU secondary: 0 (from -3, MU had trouble getting separation against fast defenses, need to get it here)
MU run blocking vs OU run defense: -3 (from -10, this could get going if the pass offense is successful)
Turnovers: MU +3 (from OU+7, MU must win the turnover battle or at least be close)
Best case scenario (if everything went Mizzou's way): OU 33, MU 42
Mizzou doens't need to win all of these battles, and won't. But it HAS to win the pass rush battle on both sides of the football. It doesn't have to be better than OU, just better compared to their average. Pressuring Bradford in particular will be very difficult.
I predict:
OU blowout: 40%
Close OU win: 35%
Close MU win: 24%
MU blowout: 1%