Missouri Scouting Report

[noobalicious]

Overview

Missouri is a good football team. Their record is 9-3 but they could just as easily have gone 10-1 with a few different bounces and plays in the game. Their two close losses came against OSU at home (23-28) and against Kansas in the Border War (37-40). Their only significant loss was against Texas in Austin. OU has put up 52 points or more 8 times this season, but Mizzou has accomplished that feat 6 times as well. A lot of the disrespect of them stems from the fact they play in the Big XII North - considered an inferior division.

While they are undoubtedly a good team, only 3 of their wins came against teams with a winning record. Only 1 was in the Big XII (against Nebraska). The other two were against Buffalo and Nevada. They don't have a win over a ranked opponent. Understandably, everyone recognizes that they have a lot of talent, but many remain unconvinced that they can compete against the elite teams in college football this year. This is the reason why most people are writing OU into the national championship game. Not so fast...Mizzou is a dangerous team and not to be taken lightly.

Offense

They run a spread offense, which is becoming pretty common in the Big XII (who woulda thought that 25 years ago?) nowadays. Obviously they have the talent to make it work. Senior QB Chase Daniel (#10) has thrown for 3880 yards and 34 TDs this year with a passer efficiency rating of 168.51. His completion percentage is the highest that its been during his time at Mizzou around 75%. His sacks are down from the last two years. This means that he's gotten more efficient and is able to make quick, smart decisions. However, his interceptions are also the highest since he's been there (13). This means he averages over an interception per game. With OU having the best turnover margin in NCAA, this is something they need to capitalize on. Instead of sitting back and letting Daniel pick them apart, they need to apply pressure, disguise coverages and blitzes, and give him lots of different looks. If he gets comfortable he's proven that he's more efficient than he's ever been.

Obviously their number one weapon is Jeremy Maclin (#9). He's the leading receiver (88 rec 1175 yards 11 TD) and 2nd leading rusher (34 rush 248 yds 2 TD). This means he touches the ball on average 10 times per game, and that's not including times that he was thrown to, and the pass was incomplete. Minimizing the yardage that Maclin gains is going to be key. They will get the ball to him from a variety of different formations and even from a few trick plays. Maclin has been injured and I saw him get shaken up a little during at least one play during the border war. I'm not sure on the status of the injury, but I think he's good to go.

Chase Coffman (#45), their star TE, has been battling a toe injury. He is also expected to play, but just something to think about. They have a variety of other weapons to utilize. Derrick Washington (#24) is their first option at RB. He's got 152 rushes for 963 yards and 17 TD on the season. Also has 28 rushes for 260 yards and 2 TD. Basically only runs the ball about 12 times per game, but look at the number of TDs. He's used closer to the red zone and has a nose for the end zone.

Of note: Derrick Washington was held to less than 20 yards rushing in both the OSU and Texas games. He was also held to about 50 yards rushing in the Kansas game. Those were the only 3 games that low. Basically, if OU can stop Washington early and make the Mizzou offense one dimensional, they should be in pretty good shape.

Other players on offense: Jimmy Jackson (#1) RB only touches the ball about 3-6 times per game. He shouldn't be a huge factor and he tends to just give Washington a rest. Tommy Saunders (#84) WR is their second option at wideout and he, along with Maclin and Coffman, are the receivers that Daniel trusts the most. He's also thrown and completed 2 passes this year, 1 for a TD. Watch for him on reverses. He might be throwing the ball. Jared Perry (#4) and Danario Alexander (#81) are the 4th and 5th options through the air.

Basically, a pass heavy offense anyways. Even if they are running "a balanced offense", Daniel will get the call through the air or with his legs about 60-65% of the time. The success against them this year has been with teams that have scored on Mizzou early, and stopped the run. If you stop the run, you can force them to be one dimensional and that's when blitz schemes will be most effective. That's a major key. Their offensive line isn't massive or extremely talented. They aren't going to grind it out. They thrive on misdirection and spreading out the defense...something that OU has remarkably proven that it can defend so far the past couple of years.

Defense

Talk about a defense that doesn't inspire much confidence. They are ranked #91 in Division 1 in total defense, just behind Baylor, Kent State and Miami (OH). They are also 80th in pass efficiency defense, MILES AND MILES behind OU who leads the Big XII in this statistic. One positive for them will be their #24 rushing defense, giving up just under 120 yards per game. That could be partially due to their schedule against teams that don't typically try to run the ball. Teams that have tried to run against them? Texas 203 yds. OSU 187 yds. Point is their rush defense is alright.

A big part of that is Sean Weatherspoon (#12) LB. He's tied for 9th nationally with 10.5 tackles per game, and 22nd nationally for tackles for loss. He flies around, can get into the backfield, and can also cover. He's projected by some draft experts to eventually be a 1st to 2nd round pick.

Also keep an eye on Stryker Sulak (#38) DL. He's tied for 29th nationally in sacks. He was basically the only source of a pass rush against KU.

But ignoring the few standouts here's a few encouraging nuggets. Their defensive line didn't really record any quarterback pressure at all against Iowa State who employed a quick passing game (they lost, but they didn't give up much pressure). The two DE's, including Sulak, only had 7 tackles between them in that game. Basically, the word is that their defensive line can vanish for long periods of time, and against our OL, that could be a huge matchup problem for them.

Mizzou is most comfortable when they can play in a base defense. Colorado, who doesn't really run the spread all that much (or at least to the extent of other Big XII schools), got shutout when Mizzou was able to settle back in a base defense. Otherwise, Mizzou typically uses an extra defensive back with a 3-safety defense. I doubt this is a 3-deep defense, but they bring an extra safety onto the field, and I would expect they would do that versus us.

S William Moore (#1) is the star of the secondary, but he was hampered by a foot injury for most of the early part of the season. He had 8 picks in 2007, but this year he only got his first one against Iowa State. Mizzou is spinning it that he is getting back to form. While this is true, he still hasn't really had a game where he's been at 100%. That's bad for Mizzou since he's an NFL-caliber talent.

CB Castine Bridges is injured and out for the game. He was a senior leader in the secondary and tore his meniscus in his knee. He will be getting surgery tomorrow and his collegiate career is basically over.

The strength of the defense is the front 7 against the run. The defensive line doesn't have a ton of depth or power (doesn't bode well against a hurry up offense and a huge OL) and the LB core doesn't have a ton of depth either. However the starters are very solid and use good fundamentals against the run.

The weakness is the coverage of the linebackers, lateral speed, and the secondary in general. With a less than 100% Moore, and Bridges out...a lot is left to be desired. Sophomore CB Carl Gettis is the other starter at corner, but he got picked on a lot last year. He's a decent open field tackler, but he lacked the ball skills necessary to hang with versatile receivers. Beyond Gettis, there is a lack of experience or quality depth at corner. This is why they use the 3rd safety. They have upperclassmen there who can provide leadership and experience.

............................

That's all for now! :D The info was pulled from all over the interwebs and the couple games I've watched.

:pop:

[PLaw]

Finally, something worthwhile about the next step towards Miami. Nice summary - it took my mind off of the whorn melt down for a few minutes.

I think you are spot on - stop the run, make 'em one dimensional, and hit 'em early and often.

Our OL and DL should be dominating the game by the 3rd qtr.

If the weather is decent - OU 56 Mizzery 21. It could be a little closer if there is falling weaher.

BOOMER

[Blitzkrieg]

MU is a good team, they have underachieved and mailed in their last game. If we break them early, expect them to start thinking about the bus ride back to columbia. If we let them hang around, they are capapble of getting up in our face.

Foot on the throat time.

[Soonerus]

Good post !!!

[noobalicious]

If the weather is decent - OU 56 Mizzery 21. It could be a little closer if there is falling weaher.

BOOMER

Well the temperature should be in the mid to upper 30s. No rain or snow expected. No major wind expected. Just somewhat chilly.

Biggest issue I see is the field conditions. It looked pretty ripped up after the border war. I know they resodded between the hashes for that game, but I don't know how that held up.

[Dan Thompson]

Interesting post.

[aurorasooner]

Well the temperature should be in the mid to upper 30s. No rain or snow expected. No major wind expected. Just somewhat chilly.

Biggest issue I see is the field conditions. It looked pretty ripped up after the border war. I Maybe we should rent those heated benches like Texass did for the KU game. That field did look chitty especially with fairway in the middle and the rough from each hash to the sideline. If the Arrowhead crew can't get a quality surface, then the Big 12 CC game shouldn't ever be played in arrowhead again. Since the Chiefs play in Denver on Sunday and don't return home until the following week, that grounds-crew probably won't do a damn thing to the field until Sunday. Hopefully the Big 12 Conference is on-top of that situation.

[BoulderSooner79]

If it wasn't for Bradford and Harrell in the same conference, Daniel's stats would be ridiculous. But if our offense is on, they shouldn't be able to keep pace for long. OSU was the first game we didn't get a quick start other than via the pick by Franks - we punted 3 of the first 4 possessions. I don't see that happening again.

[JLEW1818]

Missouri D is horrible in the big time stage, bottom line.

[BoulderSooner79]

I think the OSU defense benefited from having 2 weeks to plan for us. After we settled in, we scored 8 times in a row with only 1 being a FG. Obviously, Mizzou had no extra time to prepare - in fact had to wait until Sunday PM. We at least had a half a day head start. :)

I know that Arrowhead will be more of a home field for MU, but is noise a big factor? We had some problem with the noise last week early.

[soonerspudman]

Thanks for a great post amid the madness. This could end up looking a lot like the OSU game. I'll be curious to see what Bob and KW put together for the run game out of the shotgun. I liked some of the late looks v. OSU with putting Clapp in the slot, this could actually be a blessing by throwing in new twists from the shotgun that nobody's seen before.

[JLEW1818]

I think Chase is already beat

[westcoast_sooner]

Noob - good analysis. I went back to last year's CCG stats, noticed we were able to run pretty well. We had 166 yards rushing with Patrick and Brown dividing the carries, kinda like we do now. Sam was 18-26 with 209 yards. Bottom line is that we were able to run the ball, and we all know how much Coach Stoops likes a balanced offense. I'm guessing we run early and often, and Sam finishes them off with well placed throws for big plays. I don't think Mizzou can be taken lightly, we'll need the defense to play well, and our defensive injuries are a little concern, but Balogun didn't play horribly in relief of Box. I think he'll step up and be the guy we expected.

[JLEW1818]

I just don't think their offense will be able to keep up with OUrs. Anything short of 60 points would be a surprise for me. I'd like to keep them 28 or under.

[Brons2]

Missouri D is horrible in the big time stage, bottom line.

Yep, you guys should crush them. Watch for Maclin on the KO returns though, he's a weapon.

[Leroy Lizard]

Maclin on KO returns could be the difference.

What worries me:

Loss of Box

Maclin, especially on special teams

OU's less-than-stellar second-half scoring

The propensity for OU to chump it in a big way

[JLEW1818]

how many did OU score in the second half last week?

[Cappy]

MU is a good team, they have underachieved and mailed in their last game. If we break them early, expect them to start thinking about the bus ride back to columbia. If we let them hang around, they are capapble of getting up in our face.

Foot on the throat time.

I hope so, don't forget they got some seniors like Daniel and Coffman, who would like to take Missouri to a BCS game instead the Alamo Bowl. They are kinda like a wounded animal in that this is their "national" championship game, which the Pokes have used to their benefit in the past as well.

Anyone know anything about Maclin though? Didn't he get banged up in the game last week pretty good? Doubt Pinkel lets anyone know the extent of it though.

[BoomerSooner, esq.]

Nice summary. I think you are exactly right. If we can play physical with them for the first half, we can wear them down and dominate both lines in the second half. Then our running game picks up and we control the tempo of the game and take them to the woodshed.

[SoonerJack]

Foot on the throat time.

Very well stated.




Biggest issue I see is the field conditions. It looked pretty ripped up after the border war. I know they resodded between the hashes for that game, but I don't know how that held up.

We'll need to bring the 1" cleats.


Yep, you guys should crush them. Watch for Maclin on the KO returns though, he's a weapon.

Maclin is dangerous. They will probably get several good returns out of him. Let's just hope that none of them go for 6.

Great rundown of the Tigers. Thanks for writing it.

[BoulderSooner79]

If we get our usual 10 kick-offs, Maclin will probably get a good return out of it. Our coverage was actually pretty good against OSU - the one return was from a bad decision by #20 (Carter?). He had a good grip on the ball which means he could have tackled him instead. I'm sure he gets a little extra "attention" in practice this week.

[NOVSooner]

Great info. someone said it dead on, if we strike early and often, ball game, if we let them hang around we're not benefitting ourselves any. we strike early and often (we saw last year how frustrated mu gets when things don't go their way i.e. skull cap yanked off after every series) they hang their heads. we do not need to give up more than 28 points, period. our D needs another statement game

[noobalicious]

Yep, I think our bread and butter needs to be attacking their corners and running the ball effectively. I think that running the ball away from the strength of their defense (up the middle) will be key. The short passing game could be the most crucial part of our offensive gameplan.

They have a few experienced ballhawking safeties, so I would think quick slant routes, dragging a WR 5yds in a crossing route, quick outs, and WR screens would be most effective. This would allow us to take advantage of the inexperience of the corners. On top of that, I would anticipate they'll play their corners about 8-12 yds off the line of scrimmage, so we should be able to eat up a lot of yardage.

I'd like to see us with some screens and off tackle runs to Murray especially. He's hitting his stride and his bread and butter is outside the tackles.

Once we grind it out with runs and short passing, I think that'll open up a few deep routes later in the game.

[MojoRisen]

Maclin is a superstar and I am sure they are going to try and show case him.... I think we can scout for him pretty well this week but I expect them to go there often - more than 10 touches...

Chase looked good running the ball last week with the exception of his TO's...

I think Mizzou is going to take a lot of shots down field on us - hoping for the best.

We need people to try out at least 5 pairs of cleats on that Turf - to see which ones we can wear out there.

Anybody remember what colorado did to a good Nebraska Team- wearing the wrong cleats one year....

[Tigerman550]

First off, I want to say that I am not here to troll at all. I want to congratulate you guys on your success this season and for jumping Texas.

With that said, I want to offer my opinions and some perspective from the Mizzou side.

No one is giving us a chance in this game. NO ONE. Not even our own fans.

To start off, Maclin is going to be iffy for this game. He hurt his shoulder again against the beakers and might be used sparingly in the offense. He will be returning kicks, however. I'll let you know more as soon as I find out more. CB Castine Bridges is out for the game, crippling our weak defense even more. We just need to get an effective pass rush, but I don't see that happening. Bradford should have a field day. I have been hearing a lot of talk about getting every opportunity to get a shot at Bradford... a very good shot, even if it's late. I am fully against anything like that, but football is football and there's nothing anyone can do about that. I have faith that Gary Pinkel will stay above that and represent our team with class, but that may be something to watch.

Offensively, I think you're going to see us run the ball a lot more. Derrick Washington and Jimmy Jackson are two very good backs that could be deadly weapons when used often. The whole season we've been using our running game to set up al of our fancy passing plays. Hopefully, Dave Christensen has realized the talent we have at RB and will use it often. Any team that can run the ball effectively against the Sooners has a shot at staying in the game. It also keeps our defense off the field for some much needed rest against the Sooner offense and limits the opportunities for you guys to get pressure on Daniel.

After all is said and done, I see the score ending up as: 52-35 Sooners.
That's what my head says.

My heart says 45-42 Tigers.

All I can do is scream my lungs out for my team at the game. I look forward to seeing you doing the same in Kansas City. I really do hope it's a good game from start to finish. I hope y'all have a good week.

[noobalicious]

I have been hearing a lot of talk about getting every opportunity to get a shot at Bradford... a very good shot, even if it's late. I am fully against anything like that, but football is football and there's nothing anyone can do about that. I have faith that Gary Pinkel will stay above that and represent our team with class, but that may be something to watch.

Well now that would be interesting. If something like that happened I'm not quite sure what would happen...although let it be known we're getting two of our DEs back for this game most likely: Auston English and Alan Davis.

[BoulderSooner79]

Defenses always want to get a hit on the QB. And our OL would rather they didn't and has been pretty good at keeping that sort of thing to a minimum. As far a intentional late hits - MU does not have a reputation as a dirty program and I'm sure Pinkel wants to keep it that way. If things do get chippy, players know how to protect each other.

[Tigerman550]

I have news that Jeremy Maclin's gonna be fine. It was his hip that was injured, but he'll be close to 100% for Saturday. I actually saw him in the student center here and he had a slight limp, but nothing too bad. He said it's a bit sore, but it's just a bruise. He said he's gonna play... It's awesome being a journalism major sometimes.

[DocNice]

Overview
The weakness is the coverage of the linebackers, lateral speed, and the secondary in general. With a less than 100% Moore, and Bridges out...a lot is left to be desired. Sophomore CB Carl Gettis is the other starter at corner, but he got picked on a lot last year. He's a decent open field tackler, but he lacked the ball skills necessary to hang with versatile receivers. Beyond Gettis, there is a lack of experience or quality depth at corner. This is why they use the 3rd safety. They have upperclassmen there who can provide leadership and experience.

Mizzou fan here. I agree with most of that. I think you short our O-Line a little bit, though I agree that you will win that matchup. We have some talent there, but it's not all come together. Certainly not anywhere near as good as your O-Line.

I also disagree a little bit with the characterization of our LBs and DBs. Our problem this year seems to be more related to communication and breakdowns as much as talent. As you said, teams have had a lot of success with short passing games, at least in terms of yards, but not so much points. The points have come from defensive breakdowns.

Our LBs are pretty good as well, at least the starting ones. Christopher is not much in coverage, he's more of a run defender. But Lambert is above average and Weatherspoon can run with even fast tight ends. Will be interesting to see if he can run with Gresham. The depth is non-existant though.

Our DB problems are related to depth as well. Gettis is actually a very good DB. Don't know if he'll make it to Sundays, but at this level he always draws the best receiver and people actually rarely throw at him. That's the best compliment you can give. Bridges was awful at the beginning of the year, but was actually playing very well before the injury. Beyond Gettis, Bridges and Moore, it gets scary. Kenji Jackson at Safety is very talented, but young and makes errors. The others I simply don't trust.

Most of the breakdowns have come in zone handoffs between corners and safeties. Can't tell you how many times I've seen them pointing at each other after a big game. The good news for us is that these things are well within our ability to fix and play better. The bad news is it was still happening in the 12th game of the season. Limiting these breakdowns, along with stopping the run, is absolutely key to holding you under 40.

[soonermagic14]

I'm still worried about our mike LB position. I keep hearing that Balagon will do just fine but what else would the coaches say? He's only played 10 snaps all year. That's scary. That position alone kept OU from being undefeated and i hope it doesnt keep OU from.....well, you all know what's at stake now. Mizzou will attack it just like Colt attacked it when Reynolds wnt out.

[cvsooner]

Another scouting report by sportswriter Dave Matter from his excellent Behind the Stripes (http://blogs.columbiatribune.com/football/)blog; I've bolded a few things I thought were interesting:

Behind the Numbers

The numbers are looking pretty lopsided this week as Missouri prepares for the juggernaut that is Bob Stoops’ Oklahoma team. Tiger fans, you might want to hide your eyes. As always, CFBstats.com contributed some of the following numbers.

When Missouri RUNS the ball …

* MU rushing offense: 165.2 yards per game (sixth, Big 12); 5.5 yards per carry (second)

* Oklahoma rushing defense: 109.8 yards per game (second, Big 12); 3.3 yards per carry (second)

Do the Tigers get away from run too early when they fall behind, even by only a score or two? That’s been a common complaint among armchair quarterbacks for several years, and it figures to be a relevant topic Saturday against an Oklahoma team that typically puts teams away in the first half, if not the first quarter.

Let’s take a look at the numbers. When the score is tied, Missouri has run the ball 47 times for 308 yards (6.6 per carry) with nine of those runs going for 10 yards or more.

When Missouri’s trailed by 1 to 7 points, its run the ball just 30 times in three games but for a productive total, 191 yards (6.4 per carry).

When losing by 8 to 14 points, Missouri’s run the ball just nine times for 23 yards (2.6 per carry). The Tigers have trailed by at least eight points in three games and run the ball just three times per game in those situations.

When losing by 15 points or more — it’s happened just twice, against Texas and Kansas — Missouri has run 18 times for 51 yards (2.8).

If you want to look specifically at tailback Derrick Washington, he’s carried the ball just 23 times when Missouri is behind on the scoreboard — for 88 yards (3.8 per carry). Granted, Missouri hasn’t trailed much this year, but when it has, is 23 carries too few for one of the Big 12’s most productive backs?

On the flip side, when Missouri has trailed this year, Chase Daniel has attempted 116 passes, including 61 when trailing by 1 to 7 points. So, that means when MU’s behind by a touchdown or less, Daniel has thrown 61 passes compared to just 13 runs by Washington.

Not second-guessing strategy here. Just pointing out the numbers.

What about Oklahoma’s run defense? Good luck running on the Sooners early. In the first quarter this season, opponents have run the ball 89 times for just 159 yards (1.8 per carry). There is some hope: Four teams have averaged at least 4.6 yards per carry on the Sooners this year, including 5.8 from Nebraska.

In their last three meetings against OU, though, the Tigers have run for just 231 yards on 89 carries (2.6 per carry), though one of those games, MU played without its starting tailback, Tony Temple.

Will OU offer the same wide running alleys that Daniel ran through last week against Kansas? Will the Tigers have some success running Jeremy Maclin on sweeps and reverses like they did last year against the Sooners? Missouri might have to be creative with the run — and patient — to have any chance at hanging with OU.

Advantage: Sooners. With a substantial advantage on the line of scrimmage, OU could bottle up the Tigers’ running game.

When Oklahoma RUNS the ball …

* Oklahoma rushing offense: 202.4 yards per game (second, Big 12); 4.7 yards per carry (fifth)

* MU rushing defense: 119.4 yards per game (third, Big 12); 3.4 yards per carry (third)

Oklahoma tailback DeMarco Murray is finally healthy — and that’s a scary development for the Tigers. Here’s what Murray did in four November games against Nebraska, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Oklahoma State: 54 carries for 378 yards (7.0 per carry), five touchdowns, 94.5 yards per game. And that’s with averaging less than 14 carries per game. He’s also caught as many as seven passes in a game, so MU must account for him in the flat. Murray’s especially deadly in the first quarter, when he’s averaging 6.5 yards a carry.

He’s only half the Sooners’ running threat. Backup Chris Brown might be the most underrated player in the Big 12. All he’s done this year is rush for 988 yards, average more yards per carry than Murray (5.9) and run for more touchdowns (17). Brown has averaged at least 5.0 yards a carry in seven games this year and matches Murray with 30 runs of 10-yards or more. And don’t mistake Murray for the more explosive of the two: Brown’s 10 runs of 20 yards or more are three more than Murray.

Here’s the scariest number for MU: The Sooners have progressively run the ball better each month. Here are their monthly splits:

* September: 169.5 yards per game; 3.9 per carry
* October: 186; 4.3
* November: 251.8; 5.9

Missouri’s defense was effective against Kansas’ option game and kept the Jayhawks running horizontal instead of north and south. Missouri’s speedy ends and linebackers have done a fair running from sideline to sideline, against slower skill players, but they’re dealing with a different element of speed this time. Also, MU’s rush defense numbers have gotten worse by the month. In four November games, the Tigers gave up 132.5 yards per game and 4.0 per carry. That could be a by-product of getting fewer sacks. MU posted 11 in September, 10 in October and just seven in November.

The Sooners haven’t exactly trampled the Tigers on the ground in the last three meetings, averaging 4.1 yards on 125 carries. MU has never smothered OU’s run game, but the Sooners haven’t been terribly explosive either.

Advantage: Sooners. Against Murray and Brown, Missouri should try doing whatever worked against Arkansas’ Darren McFadden and Felix Jones last year.

When Missouri THROWS the ball

* MU passing offense: 344.2 yards per game (third, Big 12); 165.4 rating (fourth)

* Oklahoma passing defense: 249.7 yards per game (fifth); 115.6 rating (first)

This matchup is going to come down to Oklahoma’s pass rush and Missouri’s pass protection. The Tigers have allowed just 12 sacks while throwing 477 passes. That’s roughly one for every 40 pass attempts. The Sooners, meanwhile, have collected 39 sacks while facing 453 passes. That’s a sack for every 11 pass attempts. Buckle up, MU offensive line. The sack total doesn’t reflect the hurries and overall mayhem OU’s defensive front causes its opponents. While Auston English, the preseason defensive player of the year in the Big 12, has missed three games with injuries, defensive end Jeremy Beal has emerged as an all-conference player in his absence. in just

Daniel’s numbers against the Sooners over the years haven’t been pretty. Take a look:

* 2006, OU 26-MU 10: 23 of 44, 284 yards, 3 INTs, 92.9 rating
* 2007, OU 41-MU 31: 37 of 47, 361 yards, 2 INTs, 1 TD, 141.8
* 2007, OU 38-MU 17: 23 of 39, 219 yards, 1 INT, 101.0

The Sooners have given up some yards through the air this year: 357 against Kansas, 486 against Kansas State and 361 against Texas Tech. They’ve given up 27 passes of 25 yards or more, six more than all of last season. But don’t get too entranced will all those yards. Of the 2,996 passing yards OU has given up, 1,574 have come when OU held at least a 15-point lead. That’s 53 percent. Eight of the 17 TD passes OU has given up came with a 15-point lead or more.

Perhaps Chase Coffman’s return can make a difference for the Tigers and create matchup problems in the middle of the field where OU is down to its third middle linebacker.

Advantage: Push. If Missouri’s linemen have the best collective game of their lives, Daniel’s got a chance to do some damage.

When Oklahoma THROWS the ball:

* Oklahoma passing offense: 354.2 yards per game (second, Big 12); 184.6 rating (first)

* Missouri passing defense: 277.1 yards per game (12th, Big 12); 131.5 rating (seventh)

Two months ago the thought of losing cornerback Castine Bridges wouldn’t have bothered Missouri fans. But during the course of the season, Bridges developed into MU’s most consistent, most physical and best playmaking corner. Now Tru Vaughns gets a shot to cover OU’s dangerous corps of Juaquin Iglesias, Manny Johnson, Jermaine Gresham, Ryan Broyles and Quentin Chaney. Third downs, if the Sooners need them, will be critical. Good luck guessing which target Sam Bradford will go to on third down. Here are their third-down reception numbers:

Iglesias: 14 for 215 yards, 2 TDs
Gresham: 12 for 250, 4 TDs
Johnson: 9 for 250, 6 TDs
Broyles: 10 for 156, 2 TDs

Here’s the bad news for Missouri. Nationally, the MU defense is No. 89 in third-down conversions, giving up first down 43 percent of the time. That's the worst third-down conversion rate on defense for all bowl-eligible teams from BCS conferences. Only six bowl eligible teams have a worse rate: BYU, Central Michigan, Rice, Buffalo, Colorado State and Navy.

One quick look at Bradford. He’s obviously put up monstrous numbers, most of which have come against the defensively challenged Big 12. Two of OU’s nonconference opponents have top-25 defenses: TCU, No. 2 and Cincinnati, No. 25. Against those two, which bear in mind came more than two months ago, Bradford averaged 403 passing yards, completed 67 percent of his throws and tossed nine touchdowns to two interceptions.

We haven’t even mentioned OU’s offensive line, a group that’s allowed just 11 sacks to 427 pass attempts. Considering the issues Missouri had putting pressure on KU’s Todd Reesing last week, can you imagine the Tigers putting much heat on Bradford? Anyone? Anyone? Bueller?

Advantage: Sooners. Boomer.

What about special teams?

A couple quick points here …

* Oklahoma has the Big 12’s best kickoff return unit but have given up four kickoff returns for touchdowns. The law of averages might be a factor here. OU has scored so many touchdowns, it’s kicked off 108 times, 12 more kickoffs than the next Big 12 team on the list, Missouri.

* Oklahoma’s punt return team hasn’t been all that productive, nor has punter Mike Knall, who’s punted more times than you’d think (50) for OU having such an explosive offense.

* Missouri must improve its kickoff coverage against OU’s potent return team, led by Murray. The Tigers routinely gave up significant field position with poor kicks and worse pursuit and tackling last week against Kansas.

Advantage: Push. Kickoff coverage could be vital for both teams.

[noobalicious]

Good stuff cvsooner. Gracias

[cvsooner]

You're welcome. I think my favorite part is he thinks Mizzou needs to be worried about our kickoff return teams. Heh.

[Jdog]

First off, I want to say that I am not here to troll at all. I want to congratulate you guys on your success this season and for jumping Texas.

With that said, I want to offer my opinions and some perspective from the Mizzou side.

No one is giving us a chance in this game. NO ONE. Not even our own fans.

To start off, Maclin is going to be iffy for this game. He hurt his shoulder again against the beakers and might be used sparingly in the offense. He will be returning kicks, however. I'll let you know more as soon as I find out more. CB Castine Bridges is out for the game, crippling our weak defense even more. We just need to get an effective pass rush, but I don't see that happening. Bradford should have a field day. I have been hearing a lot of talk about getting every opportunity to get a shot at Bradford... a very good shot, even if it's late. I am fully against anything like that, but football is football and there's nothing anyone can do about that. I have faith that Gary Pinkel will stay above that and represent our team with class, but that may be something to watch.

Offensively, I think you're going to see us run the ball a lot more. Derrick Washington and Jimmy Jackson are two very good backs that could be deadly weapons when used often. The whole season we've been using our running game to set up al of our fancy passing plays. Hopefully, Dave Christensen has realized the talent we have at RB and will use it often. Any team that can run the ball effectively against the Sooners has a shot at staying in the game. It also keeps our defense off the field for some much needed rest against the Sooner offense and limits the opportunities for you guys to get pressure on Daniel.

After all is said and done, I see the score ending up as: 52-35 Sooners.
That's what my head says.

My heart says 45-42 Tigers.

All I can do is scream my lungs out for my team at the game. I look forward to seeing you doing the same in Kansas City. I really do hope it's a good game from start to finish. I hope y'all have a good week.

Good call, I think both of your scores are right on the money. I was picking 45 42 or 49 35.

[GrapevineSooner]

If Mizzou is to pull off the upset, Chase Daniel is going to have to have the game of his life.

Which means he's going to have to reverse a trend over Mizzou's past 7 games that saw him throw 12 interceptions and get sacked 10 times.

Worst thing that could happen to the Tigers tonight, IMO, is for OU to get back to their trend of torching defenses right out of the gate.