BCS, this isn't over

[BermudaSooner]

OU's lead in the computers will shrink after this weekend, especially if Florida beats Bama. Here's a breakdown of the analysis:

A&H, currently:

1. Bama
2. Utah
3. Texas
4. OU
6. Florida

With a Florida win, could be:

1. Utah
2. Texas
3. Florida
4. Bama
5. OU

Billingsley, currently:

1. Bama
2. OU
3. Florida
4. Texas

Would likely go to:

1. Florida
2. OU
3. Texas

Massey, currently:

1. Texas
2. OU
3. Bama
4. Florida

Could be:

1. Texas
2. Florida
3. OU

KM currently:

1. OU
2. Tech
3. Texas
4. Utah
5. Bama
6. Florida

could be:

1. florida
2. OU
3. Tech
4. Texas

Sagarin:

1. OU
2. Texas
3. Tech
4. Bama
6. Florida

Could be

1. Florida
2. OU
3. Tech
4. Texas

and finally Wolfe

1. OU
2. Texas

assume no change (as this is the most conservative)

If all of this happened, OU's computer BCS drops from .98 to .95 with an average (after dropping high and low) of 2.25, and Texas stays at .94. All this may not happen, but OU'S LEAD OVER TEXAS IN THE COMPUTERS WILL SHRINK IF FLORIDA WINS. There is no doubt about that.

With exactly the same votes, OU's lead of 0.0128 shinks to 0.0029.

1 voter in the Harris poll wussed out and didn't vote. Let's assume that guy now votes Texas #1, OU #6, that lowers our lead to .0023. Or, the lead is small enough now, that if that guy didn't give OU a vote (out of the top 25) and ranked Texas #1, Texas would beat us by 0.0001. I understand the votes are checked over for reasonableness, so this probably can't happen.

For every point in the Harris, our lead shrinks .00012, or said another way, if there is a 24 vote change in the Harris, OU does not go to the BCS, but Texas does. A 24 vote change could come from 12 voters switching OU and Texas, for example. 12 voters out of 114.

Or on the coaches, since there are only 61 coaches voting, each point is worth almost double a Harris vote, so 13 points, or 7 voters switching OU and Texas sends Texas.

Let's just kill Missou, and make all of this moot.

[picasso]

we got to KC and that's all I could ask for.

let the chips fall where they may.

[oupride]

Any chance tx gets into the MNC?

[1890MilesToNorman]

Mizzou at #20 sure isn't going to help if the Gators win.

[Blues1]

As I said in my 3am Post -- "The War has Just Begun" -- Get Ready to go to Battle....!!!
Rock on

[TopDawg]

I'm not too worried about it. I think we get some more human votes to negate any potential loss in the computers.

[rainiersooner]

I think once the media dust settles we should have a chance to get some votes back in the human polls....I'm already seeing some elements of the media embrace us.

[SoonerinSouthlake]

if we win this weekend I doubt very seriously that people will continue to vote Texas over us.

[TheUnnamedSooner]

^^^ Agreed. Human voters will not want a non conference champion in the MNC, and will vote accordingly.

[SoonerStormchaser]

Well...if the coaches vote the same way this upcoming week (assuming we win) as they did last week, then we'll have a clear picture on Sunday who was in Texas's wallet and who was in ours.

[BermudaSooner]

if we win this weekend I doubt very seriously that people will continue to vote Texas over us.

I completely agree, just don't like our cushion shrinking. For reference, we lost 41 points in the coaches poll and 27 points in the Harris poll last week. Either one of those along with a Florida win, and we are in trouble.

When you see stuff like Tramel's article today I don't like our fate in these idiot's hands. Tramel asked a Harris poll voter in the OSU pressbox whether he was going to vote OU or Texas higher, his response was "Oh, I don't know. Doesn't really matter. I think Alabama and Penn State will probably play for the national championship. They are the only undefeated teams, aren't they?"

[Partial Qualifier]

Thanks, BermudaSooner, for crunching the numbers & providing the analysis.

[yermom]

Well...if the coaches vote the same way this upcoming week (assuming we win) as they did last week, then we'll have a clear picture on Sunday who was in Texas's wallet and who was in ours.

i have a feeling there with be a swing in OU points for this reason

[8timechamps]

i have a feeling there with be a swing in OU points for this reason

Yep. I didn't know until today that the final coaches poll shows how all the coaches voted. If anything, our lead in the coaches poll will grow.

[NOVSooner]

this is certainly a valid topic, i was reading schlabach's article on espn.com and he has OU winning the conference then if you look at his bowl projections he has alabama vs. texas for the NC. Stupid

[jeremy885]

i have a feeling there with be a swing in OU points for this reason

what, you think Mack will have to actually not vote us last this week?

[badger]

^^^ Agreed. Human voters will not want a non conference champion in the MNC, and will vote accordingly.

:P Yup, don't forget what happened to Georgia last year.

[TMcGee86]

When you see stuff like Tramel's article today I don't like our fate in these idiot's hands. Tramel asked a Harris poll voter in the OSU pressbox whether he was going to vote OU or Texas higher, his response was "Oh, I don't know. Doesn't really matter. I think Alabama and Penn State will probably play for the national championship. They are the only undefeated teams, aren't they?"

That's insane. Do you have a link to the article?

[BoulderSooner79]

If we win, UT will be yesterdays news and all those votes cast *in secret* last week to try to overcome the computer ratings will put OU ahead of UT. Remember, Florida also lost votes last week after killing a ranked team on the road and those votes will also become rational due to the votes becoming public. Bottom line is beat Mizzou and OU is big12 champs and the BCS is what it is.

[MamaMia]

The next coaches vote is public. I seriously doubt that after a convincing win against Missouri the coaches would make public asses out of themselves by voting us down; well except for maybe Brown, Miles, and the Bowdens since they do that on a daily basis anyway.

[MojoRisen]

Not so fast - the above forementioned would be a travesty...

We need to beat up on Mizzou - and not let them fling the ball all over us. I like the way Venables plays Mizzou - they ain't OK State or Tech on offense.

If it is tight- I could see a potential issue...

The Florida loosing points thing- really should not happen again when people have their names on the ballots... That is a good point

[mopardriver]

Remember Brown could vote Texas No. 1 and that will beat us in the coaches poll. I hope Stoops is on the phone to Spurrier,Leach,Pelini and Leavitt to get first place votes to counter Brown.I would say they were the four who voted us No. 1 after the Tech game.

[85sooners]

;)
Remember Brown could vote Texas No. 1 and that will beat us in the coaches poll. I hope Stoops is on the phone to Spurrier,Leach,Pelini and Leavitt to get first place votes to counter Brown.I would say they were the four who voted us No. 1 after the Tech game.;)

[Chrisrokc]

Most people won't vote for a team that didn't win their conference. If OU wins. OU will go.

[stoopified]

There is no way an idle UT jumps OU in the computers if we win the Big 12.The coaches kept usat #2 before so there is no reason to think they will now(as long as we win).The crazy dip$hits in the Harris are another story altogether.

[Collier11]

The votes will be public this week, they will not drop us below ut if we win the big 12 title.

[MojoRisen]

Unfortunately remember that everyone wants a playoff and the more jumbled this system gets the better justification for the playoff...

What good does it do now to publish the vote?? They had not had too do it all year long until now... With the media screwing us and absolutely buying into Texas and not looking at the rules agreed to - feel that they can cause more justification for a playoff buy screwing the sooners - I am not sure it will not happen.... They can say I felt they were the better team etc- and with the media behind them- wont have to look like an asshat either... As well like Stoops said- they may actually want to vote OU above Texas but with affiliations in business or friendship- once it is public may get a lot of grief over it....

BCS wanted control over the AP- they pulled out... Are the coaches and Harris Poll Next???

I am sure the BCS does not want to be made look like a mockery any worse than they already have - with the whinney little biatches called MEDIA which is really kind of destroying our country....

Will these goons come out of the closet and put an iron fist on the MEDIA???

we know what the NCAA stands for...

This system is flawed because of the human voters - either they should be monitored all year on votes or not monitored at all...

I think we need to see what they do regularly - and maybe sometimes they can justify there slight swings- not total collusion to screw one team over the other- especially when they are so closley rated.

Sorry had to rant that -

[Blitzkrieg]

Mack will get drunk, pass out in the parking lot, a security guard will wake him up, and he will drive into an aggies house on his way home, all hopped up on malt liquor and pain pills........

I know it's waaaay to white trash to ever really happen to one of our competitors, but it would be funny.

[JLEW1818]

It will hurt texas too right?

[Ton Loc]

this is certainly a valid topic, i was reading schlabach's article on espn.com and he has OU winning the conference then if you look at his bowl projections he has alabama vs. texas for the NC. Stupid

Just a FYI, he made those projections before the BCS came out Sunday. Someone asked him in the chat he did yesterday.

Of course, it is retarded they had to make their projections before the BCS standings came out.

[tommieharris91]

Wrong. A win over Mizzou will likely push OU to #1 in all computers. OU will very likely pass Texas in the Colley Matrix (is this your "KM" computer?) with a win over Mizzou. The win over Mizzou should put OU #1 in the Anderson & Hester computer. Same with Billingsley. OU already has the #1 spot in the Massey computer. You say Texas is #1 in that computer right now. OU right now has a 6.52 edge over Florida in Sagarin's computer. OU is playing the Sagarin #22, while Florida is playing the Sagarin #3 team. That still might not be enough of an edge to put Florida ahead of OU. If it is, the Sagarin rating will be one that is dropped next week.

[tommieharris91]

That's insane. Do you have a link to the article?

http://newsok.com/article/3326682

[Vic n Tulsa]

if we win this weekend I doubt very seriously that people will continue to vote Texas over us.

Yea RIGHT....Kansas State put a WHOOP-*** on some team not too long ago and that same team still went to the big dance. Care to guess who??

Be careful what you wish for my friend.

[MojoRisen]

Same KState team that demoralized Uterus the last two years and cost them a chance at the big dance...

Pusssssssieessss - I hope this chides us too a new dimension - our goals are in our sights.

BOOOOOOMER

[daddywarbucks]

The next coaches vote is public. I seriously doubt that after a convincing win against Missouri the coaches would make public asses out of themselves by voting us down; well except for maybe Brown, Miles, and the Bowdens since they do that on a daily basis anyway.


Exactly..Public vote this time..Mack and his cronies cant vote OU 15th and get away with it...I think our numbers go up substantially in the Human polls this week..

[Mobits]

this is certainly a valid topic, i was reading schlabach's article on espn.com and he has OU winning the conference then if you look at his bowl projections he has alabama vs. texas for the NC. Stupid

Atually, Mark stated on his Chat that he made that projection prior to the BCS standing announcements on Sunday afternoon. His new projection would be Oklahoma.

[Mjcpr]

I'd rather play Alabama anyway.

[birddog]

it's all so funny to me that out of all the bitching and moaning about who screwed whom, who cheated, who killed the other, no one seems to care that this system sucks.

it's all decided by computers and people who don't watch games! instead of complaining about who is right, why don't people talk about how to fix the system? is it because the system is fine but it just didn't turn out right this time?

let's take the top 4 and let #5 complain. sheesh.