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View Full Version : Fallacy of the head to head argument



rainiersooner
11/30/2008, 02:47 AM
I don't believe this has been discussed elsewhere. I ran some numbers regarding the head to head argument. Yes, Texas beat us, and so there were the "best" team on the day. But everyone accepts that the polls are about who is the best team - which either means (1) at the time of the vote or (2) over the course of the season. I think we are the better team at the time of this next vote, but admit this is subjective. So, over the COURSE OF THE SEASON, we must look at more than the one head to head game (logic demands this, otherwise the COURSE OF THE SEASON would be irrelevant). So, let's do some second layer head to head analysis, specifically with respect to the COMMON opponents we have played OVER THE COURSE OF THE SEASON. Note the following results, particularly whether they occurred home or away:

OU TX

OSU (A) 61-41 (+20) (H) 28-24 (+4)
TT (H) 65-21 (+44) (A) 33-39 (-6)
Baylor (A) 49-17 (+32) (H) 45-21 (+24)
A&M (A) 66-28 (+38) (H) 49-9 (+40)
Kansas (H) 45-31 (+16) (A) 35-7 (+28)

Obviously the Tech game plays into our favor. Next is OSU: we beat them on the road by 16 more points than Texas did. As for Baylor and A&M (the doormats of the Big XII): our wins came on the road, by the same margin of victories (considerably more for us against Baylor; a little bit more for them against A&M). Kansas is a good win for them on road; I'll admit it...but we have a considerably more impressive suite of road wins than they do.

Oh yeah, and aside from that...Texas sucks!

Boomer!

Dio
11/30/2008, 02:49 AM
Head-to-head is a great tiebreaker between 2 teams.

3 teams not so much.

CORNholio
11/30/2008, 08:13 AM
According to Texas it is just a two team race between us and them. Apparantly TTech is eliminated because we beat them too bad? How does this make sense? It's a three way tie you can't take away our victory because it changed your opinion on TTech.

OU-HSV
11/30/2008, 09:03 AM
Here's the way to look at it that makes a lot of sense.
The BCS is the modern system that crowns the national champion. Everyone knows that (even Pete Carrol, Tommy Tubberville, etc. know this whether they want to admit it or agree with it or not).
Since it's the system that means the most, it ought to be the system that's used to decide our 3-way tie situation. Seems logical to me. Now if it had been a head to head tie between us and texass, obviously texass would and should have the edge (even though they beat us almost 2 months ago).
But the fact stands that OU beat the living p*ss out of the team that beat texass more recently than texass beat us. And that game is the very reason this three way tie is the situation now.
And if Mack still has a problem with all this, he can feel free to check out the human polls, both of which had us ranked above texass even last week after we beat the #2 team in the country late season. Now in the last regular season game of the year, we beat the BCS #12 team in the nation by 20 points AT THEIR HOUSE...and texass barely beat them in Austin.

To me texass is the same team right now as they were in Dallas back in October. And to me (and I'm truly leaving my bias aside) OU has improved much more than texass has since our game in Dallas.
All of these things considered, and other great points you all have made throughout the week make it seem obvious that are argument to be ranked #2 is greater than texass argument.

The fact is that we are thinking about this all in a logical way because we understand that it's a three way tie. Had it been a two way tie we face the fact that texass would beat us head to head. But I'll say it again for any texass posters who may be reading our thoughts on this...we demolished the #2 team in the country late season, who recently beat texass.

I'm not against a system change for such 3 way tie situations if the Big 12 as a whole agrees on it. But this is our current system which takes into account the current national system that crowns the national champ and means the most. And to me this makes sense.

2k2 c5
11/30/2008, 10:05 AM
According to Texas it is just a two team race between us and them. Apparantly TTech is eliminated because we beat them too bad? How does this make sense? It's a three way tie you can't take away our victory because it changed your opinion on TTech.

It makes texas sense because they want everyone to forget they lost a game.