OU vs. OSU breakdown

[meoveryouxinfinity]

I'm tired of talking the BCS to death. Tech was last week. We won, but it's Monday and a new week. We (not the fans, but the team of course) must play equally as well next week.

OSU and Tech both have very powerful offenses. The difference between Tech and OSU? Zac Robinson's ability to escape from pressure and run the ball. I'm not overly worried about their running backs gashing our defense, but I am afraid Zac will get some 3rd down conversions with his legs. Look what Baylor's Robert Griffin (102 yards 21 carries) did to us.

OSU has the nation's #8 rushing offense. On the flip side, we have the #12 ranked run defense. Advantage: Oklahoma. I don't think they will be able to beat us on the ground. Kendall Hunter is good, but I honestly do not think he will have a 100 yard game. His lowest outputs this year were vs the almighty #115 ranked rush defense Texas A&M (he had 90 yards) and #66 ranked run defense Baylor (he had 93 yards). But when did face the #4 ranked run defense in Texas, he averaged 8.9 yards per carry and had 161 yards. Kendall Hunter is no Adrian Peterson. I doubt he makes enough of an impact to change the game in OSU's favor. (PS, wasn't Hunter hurt vs Colorado?)

Oklahoma has the nation's #20 ranked rushing offense. OSU's rush D is ranked #26. Advantage: Oklahoma. Our ranking and numbers are skewed from earlier games. DeMarco and Brown were unstoppable vs Tech.
Vs. Texas A&M (#115 run defense):

CAR YDS TD LG
Murray 7 123 0 70
Brown 13 117 3 28

Vs. Texas Tech (#38 run defense):

CAR YDS TD LG
Murray 18 125 2 25
Brown 21 108 3 15
I think a productive running game is pivotal to us winning the game. It will set up the pass nicely and keep Oklahoma State guessing.

OSU has has the nation's #48 passing attack. OU has the #97 ranked pass defense. Advantage: Oklahoma State. Box is getting into a groove over the middle. Brian Jackson, Nic Harris, and Dominique Franks played absolutely phenomenal on Crabtree and crew. Our defense is definitely starting to gel (gel...Mike Gundy? where?!). I have a feeling Dez Bryant will get a few big passes but the spotlight will be on Pettigrew. But if OSU's ground game can't get going, it will be a long night for the Cowboys.

Oklahoma has the #3 ranked passing offense. OSU's pass defense is #105. Uh-oh. Advantage: Sam Bradford. Expect Sam to light up the OSU secondary. If given time, it could get ugly in the air...

Special teams: well, we are playing better... relatively. Just don't expect us to shut them down on returns.
Punting: OSU #2 OU #93
Punt Return: OSU #2 OU #64
Kickoff Returns: OSU #15 OU #14
Punt Return Defense: OSU #15 OU #19
Kick off Return Defense: OSU #105 OU #108
Advantage: OSU, but not by as much as you'd think.


Also, since games like this are usually won by turnovers:
Turnover Margin:
OSU #24 (12 fumbles & 11 int gained, 9 fumbles & 7 int lost)
OU #1 (13 fumbles & 14 int gained, 2 fumbles & 7 int lost)

B e d l a m is always a pretty close game. I don't expect it to be tight the entire game but I expect to to secure a 10 or 14 point lead by the end of the 4th quarter.

[NYC Poke]

If you hold Hunter under 100 yards, it won't even be close.

[JohnnyMack]

I predict that if our O and D lines play as well as they did against Sand Aggie that we win. Easily.

[meoveryouxinfinity]

If you hold Hunter under 100 yards, it won't even be close.

Is he 100%?


He will probably have 100 yards, now that I think about it more.


But he will not average 8.whatever per carry.

[MojoRisen]

We match up well against OSU offense - Dez is more experienced this year but we pretty much did a darn good job at containing them last year with personel for them being the same.

We lost a lot of starters on D- but I think we match up well at the line of scrimage and I am pretty impressed with our DB'S.

Playing at thier house is worth 14 points - so I say 45-31 or 45-24 OU..

They will not be able to stop us if we are focused on offense..

[yukonsooner]

What is Hunter's status? Wasn't he injured late in their last game?

[NYC Poke]

The word on our board is that Hunter is practicing today, people have seen him around and he looks fine, etc., so I suspect he'll play, though he may not be 100%.

And if your lines play as well as they did against TT, I don't see anybody in the country beating you.

[cvsooner]

Hunter has a leg injury. He may not be much of a factor. Pettigrew is a big time player, though, and so is lBryant. And it's in Stoolwater...on national tv. Our potential to lay an egg is big...especially if we're somehow hung over from Tech. Add in the holiday--and OSewe has had an extra week to prep--and the fact we've really struggled in their stadium even with some awesome teams....and it's the final home game for their seniors....I see this one being close.

'Course, I thought we'd beat Tech something like 35-31.

I think we win this one but we don't put a beatin' on 'em like we did like last year. I say...42-21.

[kevpks]

After Saturday's game OSU will find their bad news in the sports section to go along with the business section. Don't worry Pokes, there is always travel and leisure or Parade magazine.

OU: 55
OSU: 21

[Stoop Dawg]

If you hold Hunter under 100 yards, it won't even be close.

Agreed. In fact, whoever runs the ball the best wins, IMO.

I'm not sure anyone can cover Bryant 1-on-1. At least, I sure don't want to see us have to try it. Hopefully we can stop the run and get at least a little pressure on Zac with our front 4.

The importance of running the ball for OU is to eat clock. The best way to stop OSU (or anyone, for that matter) is to limit their opportunities.

And then, of course, there are turnovers. If either team gets +2 in turnovers it'll be hard for the other team to overcome it.

My guess is that OU leads for most (all?) of the game, but OSU hangs around and has a shot to win it at the end.

[NYC Poke]

Dez is a beast. But you guys found a way to contain Crabtree, so I suspect you may be able to do the same with Dez. We need some legitimate receiving targets other than Pettigrew and Bryant.

[JLEW1818]

I think we score a late game td to go ahead 38-24

[meoveryouxinfinity]

Dez is a beast. But you guys found a way to contain Crabtree, so I suspect you may be able to do the same with Dez. We need some legitimate receiving targets other than Pettigrew and Bryant.

That was my thought. But OSU is a completely different offense than Tech.

[JLEW1818]

Houston scored 37 in stoolwater. Troy scored 24. Texas Aggies scored 28. Iowa State scored 17....

Shoot we might put up some points.

Our boys have a big chip on their should yet again, win and move on, so kill them to be sure.

[NYC Poke]

True, and Stoops (or BV) seems to have some insights into Leach's offense that other coaches haven't gotten yet. But then he hasn't done too poorly against Gundy, either.

[aurorasooner]

I don't usually pay much attention to Big 12 stats especially when the 2 competing teams play 3 opposite teams from the other division. IMO this can sort of skew the stats. As far as the Aggie passing attack goes, if our defense plays with 3/4 of the passion and effort they put out last week we should be OK. We get an effort equivalent to 100% of what we saw against Tech, we'll kick their azz. Same with ZR running. If we bring it like we brought it against Tech, and the ZR turns into a RB, then he'd better have his head on a swivel.

[JLEW1818]

Oklahoma Total Defense = #56.... giving up an average of 351 yards per game (number 12 rush defense)

Poke State = #76........... giving up an average of 377 yards per game. (number 26 rush defense)


They have been sitting at home for 2 weeks after the tech *** whopping just waiting to play us. Yes I think they will be pumped, but they did see on national TV when Oklahoma kicked that same Tech teams *** that kicked their ***... Regardless that's in the back of their heads.

[JLEW1818]

And we our the hottest team in football, and if Texas kills the aggies, it will only make our boys want it more. Huge advantage for us seeing texas play Thursday.

[Stoop Dawg]

Dez is a beast. But you guys found a way to contain Crabtree, so I suspect you may be able to do the same with Dez. We need some legitimate receiving targets other than Pettigrew and Bryant.

That's a nice thought, but I thought the same about R. Woods too. I think Bryant - at home, last game of the season, roaring crowd - will have a career game against our D. I just hope it isn't good enough for OSU to get the win.

[PLaw]

Stop the run, take Bryant out of the game with double teams, and contain Robinson - voila! VICTORY.

I hope it is that easy, but doubtful it will be.

BOOMER

[OSUAggie]

Dez Bryant is obviously much better at home, as is the entire team. But we haven't really played anyone with a pulse at home. Then again, you guys haven't played anyone with a pulse on the road. Should be interesting. I won't be surprised with any result.

[JohnnyMack]

If DB goes off for 150 and 2 TDs I'm fine with that. As long as we don't turn the ball over, can maintain balance on offense and can keep contain on ZR (not letting him scramble for first downs on 3rd down and medium+ situations) we should win.

We definitely need to find that edge we had against Sand Aggie. This team has played looser and meaner than most Stoops teams, I hope that remains true on Saturday.

[Iam4OUru]

The memories of playing Miami in the mid-80's still stick in my mind......right behind playing an out-manned bunch of Pokes in Stillwater. Unlike last week... I'm just a tad bit nervous about this one. :eek:

[westcoast_sooner]

I grant that pokie light will be pumped for this game and that they've had a couple of weeks to prep, but overall, I think our offense will have similar success to what we have seen in other road games this year.

They have some weapons. Zac Robinson is able to run, and he's probably the best dual-threat QB we've faced since McCoy. Dez Bryant is their playmaker - take him away and you reduce their threat considerably. Pettigrew is also dangerous and their running game might be tough, if they have Hunter, and if they have success throwing.

The thing is, the Tech defense found a way to hold them to 20 points. I'm guessing Stoops and Co will find a way to do something similar.

While I won't necessarily predict a blowout like we saw Saturday night against Tech, I do think we win convincingly - somewhere around 17 points seems about right.

[rubyspirit]

Positive thoughts, positive vibes ... today and all week please. Go Sooners!

[Dan Thompson]

Here is my view.

TT 56 - OSU - 20 @ TT

Give OSU 14 points for home, but take back 7 as our D is better than TT = OSU = 27

Our O is better than TT's and we had 65 on them, but we are on the road so take away 14, thus 51, but we are better so add another 7 or 14.

OU 58 OSU 27

[aurorasooner]

D*&m I hope we play better than we did in 02. The replay of he 02 game is on FCS-Central right now. We stomped Tech 60-15 in Norman the game before and there's 6 minutes left in the 3rd and Aggie is stomping a mud-hole on us 35-6. We couldn't cover cheet, short/intermediate/long, Aggies were running wide-open all over the field, we couldn't tackle worth a crap, and had zero pass rush on Fields.

I don't remember who our OC was in 02, Mangino/3rd 8 Long, but aggie D had our running game completely game planned and we kept running the SOS into a brick wall just like the last 3 BCS games. Good thing is that we had the Big 12 locked up in '02 and just went in to Stoolwater and went through the motions. Saturday we're playing for everything in front of another national TV audience. Hopefully our guys aren't full of themselves reading all these SI-type press clipping this week, because the pokes are going to try to hit us in the mouth early.