Is Thailand going to have a civil war or not?

[Chuck Bao]

I’ve never been through a civil war. It is pretty weird that such an idea is even being mentioned. On the other hand, I never thought that the US financial system would need to be bailed out and Citibank would be in such financial trouble that it is considering selling off its parts.

Thailand is known as the Land of Smiles. Thais are such an easy-going, friendly people and predominately Buddhists. Thailand is still my favorite place to visit in the world even though I’ve lived here for more than 20 years. That is simply because Thai people are so friendly and accommodating. In the provinces, they may have quite humble abodes living in little more than shacks and little food, but they will always invite you in and share a meal.

Behind the smiles, there is some intense hatred being built up. Nope watches the TV news each night and I can hear him say: “Kill them. Kill them all.”

My office colleague was heard saying out loud on Friday: “Kill them. Kill them all.” He is on the opposite side of Nope. I will not ever consider introducing them.

I don’t know how to describe this 50/50 political split. Maybe the Spanish Civil War is the best historic perspective with the Royalists and the Republicans. That is except in Thailand nobody is advocating a republic and doing away with the monarchy. They are just asking for giving democracy a chance. The Elitists are saying that it failed and Thailand isn’t ready for democracy and the majority of parliament should be appointed from the Bangkok elite.

Last week, my company hosted a lunch presentation for local fund managers. The guest speaker was a highly-respected former Bank of Thailand governor and grandson of a prince. He was telling everyone that the only way out of the current political problem is for the military to seize power. That isn’t really surprising that he must be a royalists and his son is an elected member of parliament as the opposition Democrats (which is increasingly becoming a misnomer).

That is except the Thai military is as divided as the people are and cannot or will not come down on one side unless there is major violence and even then there will be a divided military.

Enter the state labor unions. They vow to shut off electricity and water to the parliament building. This is huge. In my opinion, if the state labor unions support the anti-government mob, that is the best reason to oppose this group. State labor unions only want bureaucratic power and control and protect their highly inflated salaries and huge inefficient workers and payrolls. They hate privatization and competition.

Over the last several days, I asked all of my friends and they all said that nothing is going to happen tomorrow. I hope they are right.

I don’t know about a civil war and I don’t want to find out.


Political upheaval feared today
By The Nation on Sunday
Published on November 23, 2008

The fate of the country hangs in the balance today in the face of another political upheaval that could lead to a bloodbath after the People's Alliance for Democracy vowed to launch an all-out effort to bring down the government of Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat and prevent charter amendment by laying siege to Parliament today in its "biggest and final" rally yet.

The PAD announced its plan to move its protest from Government House to Parliament at a press conference yesterday after a three-hour meeting of its five core leaders at Ban Phra Arthit.

Meanwhile, appointed Senator Ruangkrai Leekijwattana said Parlia-ment had put the Constitution amendment draft presented by Dr Weng Tochirakarn, a leader of the pro-government Democratic Alliance against Dictatorship, at the top of its agenda to be discussed from tomorrow despite House Speaker Chai Chidchob insisting last week that this wouldn't be so.

He said the draft included clauses reducing the power of privy councillors, removing some independent agencies, whitewashing parties facing dissolution and giving amnesty to 111 former Thai Rak Thai Party executives.

PAD leader Maj-General Chamlong Srimuang yesterday showed members of the press that Constitution amendment had been marked urgent on Parliament's agenda for today.

Pipop Thongchai said the PAD intended to stop Parliament working in support of the Somchai government.

He said both Parliament and the government had lost any mandate to run the country because they refused to take responsibility for the bloody crackdown on anti-government protesters on October 7.

He accused the government of continuing to use violence through a series of deadly bomb attacks to deter people from joining the PAD protest. "If the people are afraid, the government will be able to prevent peaceful protests in the long run, and we will not be able to protect our country and the monarchy,'' he said.

Sondhi Limthongkul said the latest bomb attack early yesterday that killed one person showed that the government was using undisciplined military officers to do its dirty work. "This is pressuring a peaceful gathering to use weapons in self-defence. Thai society will see a bloodbath. It is sad that military officers and police have taken part in this,'' he said.

The five leaders refused to reveal how they planned to break into the Parliament compound.

Chamlong insisted that the PAD must move on Parliament to ensure there was no charter amendment even after reporters told him that House Speaker Chai Chidchob had guaranteed that charter amendment would not be on the House agenda.

This article was also in the Nation but there is no link because it is now not there.


Controversial general warns PAD more will die on Sunday

Maj Gen Kattiya Sawasdiphol, a pro-Thaksin army officer, Thursday warned the People's Alliance for Democracy that a massacre would happen Sunday if they hold a mass demonstration in front of Parliament.

"I would like to say that anyone wanting to join the rally should reserve a temple for his or her own funeral," Kattiya said. "Being united, you will be slain in group."

He said the bomb attack inside the Government House early Thursday would not be the last one but PAD opponents would launch bomb attacks against it every night.

Kattiya earlier faced a disciplinary probe for having threatened the PAD with attacks by warriors he had trained.

[1890MilesToNorman]

Another 1% tea tax in America and we are going to have Revolution II.

[SicEmBaylor]

STOP CALLING IT A CIVIL WAR! IT'S THE WAR OF THAKSIN AGGRESSION!

[Chuck Bao]

STOP CALLING IT A CIVIL WAR! IT'S THE WAR OF THAKSIN AGGRESSION!

Sic'em, you are wrong on so many levels and I knew you'd automatically side with the elitists.

Still, I have to admit that that is pretty funny. Spek and :D

[SicEmBaylor]

Sic'em, you are wrong on so many levels and I knew you'd automatically side with the elitists.

Still, I have to admit that that is pretty funny. Spek and :D

I try to avoid being on the side of the Pitchfork Brigade.

[Chuck Bao]

I try to avoid being on the side of the Pitchfork Brigade.

So, you side with the elitist mob who have illegally occupied Government House for three months already and get surprised and outraged by the use of Chinese manufactured tear gas and the idea that the Thai military shouldn't really fire the tear gas canisters at people's heads.

Okay.

If you mean pitchfork brigade as in farmers, I'm okay with that too.

I'm just not okay with people calling farmers stupid. I'm pretty sure that they get the whole idea.

[Veritas]

Dang Chuck. So what's your move if the **** hits the fan?

[SicEmBaylor]

So, you side with the elitist mob who have illegally occupied Government House for three months already and get surprised and outraged by the use of Chinese manufactured tear gas and the idea that the Thai military shouldn't really fire the tear gas canisters at people's heads.

Okay.

If you mean pitchfork brigade as in farmers, I'm okay with that too.

I'm just not okay with people calling farmers stupid. I'm pretty sure that they get the whole idea.

You make it sound horrible.

And I use the term "Pitchfork Brigade" to describe virtually any populist movement. There was a collection of Obama supporters on election night celebrating in downtown Waco, and I also referred to them as the "Pitchfork Brigade."

[Chuck Bao]

Dang Chuck. So what's your move if the **** hits the fan?

My life is tied to the country's prospects and it would get pretty much distroyed.

I don't think I'm ready to do anything else.

One of my analysts got married last night and my CEO, who is closely tied in with the anti-government protest movement and the opposition party, was there to give his official wedding blessings. He was telling me that my company is so cash rich and buying back shares and that our company didn't have any problems with the glabal equity market sell-off. So, so far we are doing okay.

I'm not expecting much of a bonus though.

I know what you meant Sic'em. I'm just not sure about the Obama pitchfork brigade and whether that is close to the 50/50 split that we are seeing in Thai politics. I may be on the wrong side here and I haven't yet figured that out.

[SteelCitySooner]

I was in the Philippines when they had one. Stay safe bro...

[Chuck Bao]

I was in the Philippines when they had one. Stay safe bro...

I don't think anything is happening and I agree with everyone that nothing should happen today.

I'm not going out and I've told my colleagues to be careful if they join the protests. I don't agree with their political views but I have to respect their willingness to take a stance.

[Half a Hundred]

I don't think anything is happening and I agree with everyone that nothing should happen today.

I'm not going out and I've told my colleagues to be careful if they join the protests. I don't agree with their political views but I have to respect their willingness to take a stance.

I'm sure you've already done this, but get in touch and stay in touch with the US Embassy. They probably have a broader sense of timing on if and when things get really bad. If chit really hits the fan, they'll be able to help you and Nope make arrangements.

[KingBarry]

Stay out of sight. Stay in touch with the embassy. Be ready to move.

Keep safe. Don't forget, Americans are always an attractive scapegoat for anybody's problems.

[Chuck Bao]

Thanks for the advice, Half a Hundred and KingBarry. I should re-register my contact telephone number and new address with the US embassy.

I had a long discussion with my office colleagues this morning about this political crisis as we were watching TV coverage of the anti-government mob surrounding parliament. The protestors have cut off electricity to parliament and they plan to maintain their position around the “seized” parliament building until Friday.

We were remarking how strange it is that both pro-government and anti-government mobs seem to be asking for the military to intervene. We don’t think that they want to put their supporters in harms way and they will step back from a direct clash and violence. But, the military doesn’t seem to want to oblige and we again get closer and closer to that brink.

If both sides want the military to intervene it means that the military is as divided as the people and that is never a good thing.

The other weird thing is that the media seems to be egging them on – on both sides. The Nation newspaper used to be my go to source. Now, it has been reduced to anti-government rhetoric and daily headlines screaming about the “the final battle”. We are joking that the latest headline is the final, final, final…ahem…the last final battle until tomorrow.

See what I mean.


COUNTRY ON THE BRINK AGAIN
"Last battle" begins today
By The Political desk
The Nation
Published on November 24, 2008

Anti-government protesters are planning the biggest rally today in a final showdown with the government, this time going for a people's revolution to topple the Somchai administration.

"The protesters under the People's Alliance for Democracy would not totally bank on the military to come to their side in toppling the Somchai government but would rather launch their own version of the people's revolution," said a political observer.

This time they have learnt the lesson.

In the people's revolution, the protesters will be attempting to woo public support so that they achieve a critical mass of more than 100,000 people to seize the capital. Spreading out in different rallies, they will lay siege on Parliament, surround the temporary office of the Somchai Cabinet at Don Muang and take control of other key communication sites.

"By doing so, the anti-government protesters are about to launch a coup in the capital similarly to military coups of the past. The difference is that they do not carry weapons or have guns and tanks like the military," said the political observer.

But to succeed, the military must also guard their security against the police forces.

The doctors and academics plan to render support to the PAD today. The state enterprise workers also plan to launch a nation-wide work stoppage.

On October 7, 2008 when the police shot tear gas into the protesters killing one person and injuring more than 400 people, the protesters waited desperately for the military to come to their side to no avail. Now they plan to stage a revolution of their own, either with military or without military support.

Maleerat Kaewka, a spokesman of the PAD, told the crowd to hang on until Wednesday when the people's war would be finished by then.

Others sense that bloodshed is hanging in the air as the anti-government protesters gear up their final war and the pro-government supporters are preparing a counter-attack.

"I believe that the situation will reach a breaking point next week. The temperature is now reaching a boiling point. It is just a moment away before a bloodshed happens and military coup will finish it up," said Rangsan Pathumwan, a lecturer at Chiang Mai University.

"They are now breaking into adversary groups. Some would like to please the Big Boss (Thaksin) and are ready to launch a clash."

Phromsak Saengpho, a leader of the pro-government and Red Shirt supporters in Chiang Mai, also speculated that a military coup might be imminent.

He said if a military coup were to happen over the next two to three days, Gen Anupong Paochinda, the army chief, would not have anything to do with it but it would rather be the work of the military from the upcountry joining with the Bangkok military.

"I don't believe that Gen Anupong would take part in the coup. He is afraid that if he does that he might not have the ground to stand on," he said.

He said the probability of a military coup has increased, with the military summoning leaders of the red shirt protesters in Chiang Mai into the Kavila Military Command to urge them not to join in the rally.

Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat is now attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting in Peru. He won't be back in Bangkok until Wednesday.

Yesterday protesters began to fortify their position in the Government House, numbering 50,000 people. The atmosphere looked like a festival as the protesters prepare to go for war.

Suriyasai Katasila, one of the leaders of the PAD, said the protesters will march to Parliament at seven o'clock tomorrow's morning and avoid marching at night.

The protesters have been attacked several times by small bombs and grenades, including a blast Thursday that killed one person and wounded 29.

Before leaving for Peru, PM Somchai signed a series of document to maintain internal security. One of the documents appoints Gen Anupong to head a committee, which is in charge of monitoring and maintaining security and law and order in Bangkok.

Army spokesman Col. Sansern Khaewkamnerd said police would be responsible for keeping the situation under control, but that 2,000 soldiers would be on standby in case police ask for help.

Police said 2,400 police would be stationed outside Parliament, which is about half a mile (1 kilometre) from the occupied prime minister's compound, Government House.

[Chuck Bao]

Meanwhile in my world another day of another final battle and another day of the media provoking people to fight each other.


A game of who blinks first
By The Nation
Published on November 25, 2008

Is the "Last Battle" turning into a game of who will blink first?
With the government content yesterday with playing mouse for the People's Alliance for Democracy to catch, what was initially dubbed as the most decisive week for Thai politics might end up back at square one.

The PAD had hoped to muster a crowd massive enough to stun the Somchai government. That didn't happen. Neither did violence that could have turned the tide in the movement's favour. As it turned out, yesterday seemed an ordinary day for Thai politics, which is growing accustomed to sabotage, death and injury.

Now, what will the PAD do next? Was yesterday a victorious day as the movement declared, or was the alliance outsmarted by the government?

It depends on how you measure a parliamentary postponement and the reduced chances for charter amendment. Win or lose, the PAD yesterday forced Parliament to postpone an important session, and sowed more seeds of doubts on the government's controversial plan to amend the Constitution. Yet it's a far cry from the movement's ultimate goal of toppling the administration within the next few days.

Obviously, despite its declaration of victory, the PAD was not satisfied. And predictably, another rallying cry yet was made by one of its key leaders. Chamlong Srimuang said the PAD would step up concerted street campaigns again today, starting as early as 4am. He didn't elaborate, but it was believed protesters would again target key public places, probably with the help of state enterprise workers who may lay down tools or stop certain utility services.

But what if the government remains calm? The tactic worked well yesterday and the PAD, having anticipated turmoil and thus didn't give importance to logistics, reportedly had to scramble for food for protesters sent to besiege Parliament. What if the government refuses to blink?

Key PAD leaders downplayed speculation that the movement was provoking violence in order to "end it quickly". "We managed to block their constitutional amendment moves that might scale down powers of the Privy Council and pave the way for Thaksin's return. Of course, we have had a successful day," said Phipob Thongchai.

Chamlong, who had portrayed yesterday as D-Day, is now saying the real D-Day is today. "What we have done is just a big rehearsal. Everyone will take a rest now and tomorrow we will go places, starting at 4am. If you have a car, bring it here and take other protesters with you," he said.

Now it appears that the situation has gone back to the "whoever causes trouble first stands to lose" suspense. The government cannot afford more bloodshed. The PAD, on the other hand, can be provocative up to a point, but rioting or vandalising will only undermine its goal.

Adding Army chief Anupong Paochinda as peacekeeper and the uneasy stalemate is likely to drag on. He has been appointed by Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat to lead a task force to monitor the PAD's activities in what might prove to be the latter's masterstroke.

By giving Anupong the responsibility to recommend measures to cope with the PAD, Somchai has given himself a good political cushion. Anupong had come out strongly against the fatal police use of force on October 7 and even made an implicit call for Somchai's resignation. The general is now in an awkward situation, and he, too, cannot blink first.

[Okla-homey]

Methinks Thailand may need a strong benevolent despot like Yul Bryner in "The King and I." Can't someone get the current King to step up? ;)

[Chuck Bao]

Methinks Thailand may need a strong benevolent despot like Yul Bryner in "The King and I." Can't someone get the current King to step up? ;)


Ssshhh! We don't talk openly about the monarchy or the palace. Thailand's beloved king is the longest living serving monarch in the world and he has earned everyone's respect by committing his life to improving the lives of Thai people everywhere, especially those less fortunate in the provinces.

It is indeed a pity that democracy has not advanced enough under the security and stable environment of his reign. We may have some dark days ahead and that whole prospect may be a contributing factor in positioning of the major power blocs. The palace is certainly devoting a lot of time and effort in promoting the mystery and majesty to HM the King.

[Okla-homey]

Ssshhh! We don't talk openly about the monarchy or the palace. Thailand's beloved king is the longest living serving monarch in the world and he has earned everyone's respect by committing his life to improving the lives of Thai people everywhere, especially those less fortunate in the provinces.

It is indeed a pity that democracy has not advanced enough under the security and stable environment of his reign. We may have some dark days ahead and that whole prospect may be a contributing factor in positioning of the major power blocs. The palace is certainly devoting a lot of time and effort in promoting the mystery and majesty to HM the King.

you must admit, it would be cool to see him pacing around the palace telling his ministers, this civil war talk must cease, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera!

[Half a Hundred]

you must admit, it would be cool to see him pacing around the palace telling his ministers, this civil war talk must cease, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera!

It's generally not a good idea to be anything other than reverent toward the king in Thailand.

[Chuck Bao]

If anyone is planning to fly to or through Bangkok, don’t.

Singapore is telling its people to stay away.

At first I thought that storming Bangkok’s international airport was an extremely foolhardy thing to do. But my office colleagues seem to think that nobody attempts a hostile takeover of an airport without some military backing.

If there weren’t a lot of people mad before, there is now.

This is going to get real ugly.


Anupong's trump card for besieged Suvarnabhumi Airport
By Avudh Panananda
The Nation

The People's Alliance for Democracy has stooped down to a nastiest move to lay siege on Suvarnabhumi Airport in order to unseat the Somchai Wongsawat government.

Its move is definitely unpopular and inflicts untold damage to the country although the PAD finally gets the undivided attention and gains a chokehold to topple Somchai.

After PAD-led protesters took control of the airport at 9.00 pm on Tuesday's night, frantic negotiations has been inconclusive.

The government is applying strong pressure on Army chief General Anupong Paochinda to intervene and clear protesters out of the airport. It wants to invoke the security law to empower Anupong to take charge of the crowd dispersal.

The PAD also wants Anupong to intervene but for an entirely different reason. It is trying to convince him to either stage a coup or throw his support to the opposition movement.

The government and the PAD both sees Anupong as having the trump card to decide the outcome of their fight.

Immediately after returning from Peru today at about 7.00 pm, Prime Minister Somchai will hold a face-to-face meeting with Anupong.

Anupong is expected to give his final answer on whether to assist the government to restore normalcy at the airport.

At this juncture, it uncertain what Anupong's stand really is. He still has half a day to review his options.

Based on his steadfast refusal to intervene in favour of the government, it is likely that he will not step in to ensure Somchai's survival.

The People Power Party is working hard in trying to replace Anupong. But it is making no headway. There is no shortage of ambitious generals willing the serve as a government's lackey. But the crucial question is whether it is possible to succeed Anupong's leadership and redirect the Army within short notice.

This leads to a dire scenario for Somchai. He may have no choice but to step down either by resigning or calling a snap election.

If the prime minister decides to cling to office regardless of dire consequences, then it is possible that by tomorrow the Democrats will resign their House seats en masse in order to force the House dissolution.

Somchai and his People Power Party are playing a high stake game to ensure survival as Anupong is about to show his trump card which can change the face of Thai politics.

[BlondeSoonerGirl]

Story (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/asiapcf/11/26/thailand.protests.airport/index.html?eref=rss_topstories#cnnSTCText) from CNN...

Check out the photos on the 'Photos' tab...

Dang, Chuck...

[soonerboomer93]

affecting the airport was not a good idea.

I keep having to log into another email account to clear all the alerts being generated by thailand.

[Half a Hundred]

I notice that the State Department hasn't put up any sort of travel advisories for Thailand yet. That's weird. Meanwhile, Bolivia, which is in a similar situation of social unrest, has about eleventy billion red flags surrounding it.

You'd think a country that's about to erupt into civil war would be something of a concern to the US.

Wonder why?

[Chuck Bao]

I notice that the State Department hasn't put up any sort of travel advisories for Thailand yet. That's weird. Meanwhile, Bolivia, which is in a similar situation of social unrest, has about eleventy billion red flags surrounding it.

You'd think a country that's about to erupt into civil war would be something of a concern to the US.

Wonder why?

According to the Nation newspaper, the US Embassy has a warning on its website.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/27/politics/politics_30089517.php


...China, France, New Zealand, Singapore, Britain, the United States, Australia and Japan warned through their websites of possible danger to their citizens.

The US Embassy advised Americans to stay away from the airport given the potential for violence and civil disobedience.

"American citizens are therefore urged to avoid the areas of demonstrations, and to exercise caution if within the vicinity of any demonstrations," it said....

[Half a Hundred]

According to the Nation newspaper, the US Embassy has a warning on its website.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/11/27/politics/politics_30089517.php

I saw that after further reading, but still, considering the context, it's a pretty weak warning.

"Stay away from the places where stuff has already happened"

I guess I just expect the Embassy to be a bit more proactive about these sorts of things. Then again, that's bureaucracy for you.

[Chuck Bao]

Yeah, it might have been more useful if the US Embassy warning read: "If you see people wearing yellow shirts coming from one directin and people wearing red shirts coming from another direction, RUN LIKE HELL!"

Seriously, I don't think there is much risk or danger if tourists stay away from the protest sites. Unfortunately, that now includes airports.

It now appears that PM Somchai is refusing to step down and dissolve parliament and the PAD is refusing to leave the airport. Both sides seem to be ignoring army commander-in-chief Anupong.

Who knows whats going to happen next?

[Half a Hundred]

Yeah, it might have been more useful if the US Embassy warning read: "If you see people wearing yellow shirts coming from one directin and people wearing red shirts coming from another direction, RUN LIKE HELL!"

Seriously, I don't think there is much risk or danger if tourists stay away from the protest sites. Unfortunately, that now includes airports.

It now appears that PM Somchai is refusing to step down and dissolve parliament and the PAD is refusing to leave the airport. Both sides seem to be ignoring army commander-in-chief Anupong.

Who knows whats going to happen next?

Hopefully His Majesty steps in and tells his subjects to knock it off for a while. Otherwise, this isn't going to end well.

[Chuck Bao]

Hopefully His Majesty steps in and tells his subjects to knock it off for a while. Otherwise, this isn't going to end well.

We can look forward to HM the King's birthday speech on Dec 5.

However, this time and this situation is very different than others that I've experienced.

It is a battle being fought out by proxies, for now. Those behind it are not going to retreat very far and they are not going to stop their scheming.

Personally, I like Army chief Anupong's suggestion of fresh elections - return power to the people!

Somchai's Peoples Power Party (PPP) could stand to gain even more seats in parliament, in my opinion. But, I think it is a trap. There is still that pending court decision on the dissolution of the PPP.

It should be a high priority court case. If they ban PPP, there is an automatic parliament dissolution and the PPP sets up the new PPP2 party. If it isn't a trap, why is the court delaying its verdict?

The real problem is that we have a very flawed constitution and both sides desparately want to change it - the PPP (red shirts) want to amend the part about banning political parties and their executives, while the PAD (yellow shirts) want to make parliament partially appointed with Bangkok bureaucrats and erode the power of the politicians and their North and Northeast voting bloc.

I hope that I am wrong, but I don't see anything changing that confrontation between the bureaucrats/judiciary and provincial politicians/pro-democracy groups. The other big power bloc, the army, is currently fence sitting.

The military can tip it one way or the other. PM Somchai can sack the army chief Anupong and that would just force his hand. On the other hand, the military could be as divided as the people and we could have civil war. The red shirts have already vowed to fight tanks in the streets.

It is a high stakes poker game being played out.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Thank God for the US constitution and some pretty smart forefathers.

[Chuck Bao]

After my last rant, this one is much better - the story of Poo and his role in the famous '08 airport hijack/jinx as reported by the Nation newspaper website.


When our window to world was shut
By Thanong Khanthong
The Nation
Published on November 27, 2008

PAD supporter gives first-hand account of airport seizure
The Suvarnabhumi Airport takeover was largely the work of the Bangkok middle class, a 44-year-old yellow-shirted zealot named Poo told The Nation in the midst of the mayhem yesterday.

Initially, Poo had not given much thought to Chamlong Srimuang's call on Sunday for protesters to bring out their cars. It wasn't until Tuesday, when he joined more than 3,000 cars, that he understood what the key People's Alliance for Democracy leader was saying. The caravan had blocked and effectively shut down Asia's fourth-largest airport.

Normally, Poo would drive his Honda Civic to Government House and park it near Wat Benjamabophit. He would be at the rally until 3 or 4am, dancing in front of the stage every time a band came on. After wearing himself out, he would rush back home in the Taopoon area to catch forty winks before heading for work, and then return to the site again. This daily routine helped him make new friends and share their zeal to bring down the Somchai Wongsawat government.

However, on Monday and Tuesday Poo was one of the many PAD supporters who were lost and confused. They had marched to the Parliament to disrupt legislative function; to the Metropolitan Police Command Centre; to the temporary government seat at Don Mueang Airport; to the Finance Ministry; to the offices of the Chart Thai Party; and even to the Army Command Centre.

Not once did they encounter any police resistance, though there were sporadic bouts of violence between the red shirts and the yellow shirts along the way.

On Tuesday evening, after the rally at the Army Command Centre had dissipated, Poo was told to head for Suvarnabhumi. The PAD was going to shut it down. So, Poo headed for the airport with five other protesters in his car. The PAD had discovered that there were some 3,000 cars at their disposal, so they reasoned that if each car carried five protesters, there would be 15,000 at the airport. At 5pm, Poo raced across Bangkok to get to Suvarna-bhumi. Upon arrival, he saw thousands of vehicles blocking access to terminals. Apparently, the PAD security guards arrived first to subdue the airport security officials, making way for the rest of the yellow shirts.

Poo flashed his lights to signal that he was one of the protesters, and was allowed to join the queue of cars that extended to several kilometres. His car was about 3km away from where the blockade started, and stepping out he saw several thousand fellow protesters rallying outside the terminal - thereby making Suvarnabhumi impassable.

Still the protesters were well provided for - they had access to mobile toilets and were supplied with nourishment in the form of rice and pork. Poo heard the sound of guns being fired, and was warned not to stand too close to the edge of the elevated road in case he too became the target of a random shot.

This firmly shut Thailand's window to the world, catching the government off guard and making the Kingdom's political crisis plunge even deeper.

[Okla-homey]

Chuck,
Will you please nutshell the dispute? I'm not sure I understand WTF the dealio is.

[Chuck Bao]

Chuck,
Will you please nutshell the dispute? I'm not sure I understand WTF the dealio is.

Now, you've offended me. I thought all my postings were nuts.

I think this thing is important because I can see people in other countries getting these ideas, especially those crazy with the idea that China has somehow now got the better economic model.

Alright, I will try to keep it brief.

Politicians versus Bureaucrats

Democracy versus Guided Democracy.

Populism versus Elitism

"People can be stupid but popular vote is the best form of government we have" versus "People are stupid and they will sell out their vote to the latest sweet talking, corrupt politician"

Does that make sense?

I make no apologies. I am a redshirt. I still believe in democracy and everyone having a say in their future. I think all people are born equal. I think poor farmers in the provinces have a pretty good clue, probably more than the so-called "highly educated" Bangkokians living in their own very narrow world. /rant.

Nope was foaming at the mouth this morning. I'm not repeating what he said.

[Okla-homey]

Now, you've offended me. I thought all my postings were nuts.

I think this thing is important because I can see people in other countries getting these ideas, especially those crazy with the idea that China has somehow now got the better economic model.

Alright, I will try to keep it brief.

Politicians versus Bureaucrats

Democracy versus Guided Democracy.

Populism versus Elitism

"People can be stupid but popular vote is the best form of government we have" versus "People are stupid and they will sell out their vote to the latest sweet talking, corrupt politician"

Does that make sense?

I make no apologies. I am a redshirt. I still believe in democracy and everyone having a say in their future. I think all people are born equal. I think poor farmers in the provinces have a pretty good clue, probably more than the so-called "highly educated" Bangkokians living in their own very narrow world. /rant.

Nope was foaming at the mouth this morning. I'm not repeating what he said.

So, yeoman rural Thais vs. the urban intelligentsia?

[soonerboomer93]

so like, new york and cali trying to control the US?




(yeah, it had to be said)

[Half a Hundred]

So, yeoman rural Thais vs. the urban intelligentsia?

From what I can tell from 10,000 miles away...

Yellows tend to be upper to upper-middle class urbanites, not necessarily intelligentsia (who would tend to support more popular movements, such as the Reds). They don't really parallel any Western movements, though they would certainly be considered right-wing. Very nationalistic, and supportive of entrenching the national bureaucratic structure. They'd like the Chinese model without the Communist ideology, and apparently, it's the relative success of China that drives them. However, they greatly oppose free trade, seeing it as decadent in Thai society. It sort of reminds me of the attitude of the Catholic Church in regard to their majority countries pre Vatican II. Interestingly neo-Luddite.

Reds tend to be the academics and lower classes of the country. While seemingly left-wing, they also tend to be very neoliberal, and highly supportive of free trade, which they see to be vital to Thailand's expansion into yet another Asian tiger. However, they also succumb to all of the pressures of any good democratic organization; by that, I mean they play politics in the manner of LBJ, which pisses a lot of Thais off. Thai law indicates that parties convicted of election violations can be banned, which the Red predecessor party was. Needless to say, this adds a ton of instability to a country.

From the looks of it, this situation seems peculiarly similar to post-Franco Spain. HM the King may do well to speak with Juan Carlos I in the ensuing weeks to gain some perspective and insight on how to handle the situation.

[Okla-homey]

any bloodshed yet?

not to be glib, but merely to learn whether the conflict remains a political struggle for control of the country and its economic direction, or if it's developing into something more fundamental and dangerous.

[Chuck Bao]

From what I can tell from 10,000 miles away...

Yellows tend to be upper to upper-middle class urbanites, not necessarily intelligentsia (who would tend to support more popular movements, such as the Reds). They don't really parallel any Western movements, though they would certainly be considered right-wing. Very nationalistic, and supportive of entrenching the national bureaucratic structure. They'd like the Chinese model without the Communist ideology, and apparently, it's the relative success of China that drives them. However, they greatly oppose free trade, seeing it as decadent in Thai society. It sort of reminds me of the attitude of the Catholic Church in regard to their majority countries pre Vatican II. Interestingly neo-Luddite.

Reds tend to be the academics and lower classes of the country. While seemingly left-wing, they also tend to be very neoliberal, and highly supportive of free trade, which they see to be vital to Thailand's expansion into yet another Asian tiger. However, they also succumb to all of the pressures of any good democratic organization; by that, I mean they play politics in the manner of LBJ, which pisses a lot of Thais off. Thai law indicates that parties convicted of election violations can be banned, which the Red predecessor party was. Needless to say, this adds a ton of instability to a country.

From the looks of it, this situation seems peculiarly similar to post-Franco Spain. HM the King may do well to speak with Juan Carlos I in the ensuing weeks to gain some perspective and insight on how to handle the situation.

This is probably not half as good as your description of the two sides, Half a Hundred.

In my opinion the Yellow Shirts are composed of a very diverse group that probably couldn’t agree with each other if their hatred wasn’t so fixated on former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. They are willing to take any measure that ensures that Thaksin does not return or use his vast wealth (most of which is still frozen in Thai bank accounts) to influence politics ever again.

The core of the group would be the religious group – Santi Asoke. They are more of an austere branch of Buddhism. I used to admire them and the way that their followers take the teachings of Buddha to heart. My friend recently visited their temple complex and said that it is pretty intense.

Fundamentalists Buddhists!!!!! Meh!

I hate them now. They are the core group that successfully blocked the stock market listing of Thai Beverage – the largest beer and whisky manufacturer in Thailand – on the grounds that it would encourage consumption. I object to their objection as a stock broker and I object as a beer and whiskey drinker.

They are nationalistic and nearly started a border war with Cambodia on a very stupid objection to Thailand supporting Cambodia’s bid to have the immense 1,000-year old Khmer temple Wat Preah Viharn straddling the border declared a world heritage site. But, that was more because they hated the Samak regime earlier this year and claimed that he was just simply a puppet of Thaksin.

It is funny to me that Samak was ousted because of his TV cooking show. That has to be a first.

Some of the Yellow Shirts are bureaucrats and some are state enterprise workers. This is another beef I have with them. The non-privatized state enterprises are bloated, inefficient and corrupt. They hate Thaksin and his drive to privatize and open up competition. They give teeth to the PAD protests by threatening to cut electricity, water and other utilities. In fact, it is now the remaining card the PAD can play – getting the bureaucrats and state enterprise workers to stop work.

Some of the Yellow Shirts can only be described as Royalists. Yellow is the color for the HM the King. There are always rumors about the royal family whispered around and one of the more popular ones was that Thaksin didn’t properly respect the palace or usurped credit and popularity on his own social development projects.

Concerning the Red Shirts, I don’t know who they are. Probably the best description is that they don’t want national politics to be directed by the Yellow Shirts or to step back from democracy.

The Red Shirts out there are probably a bunch of hired thugs. Don’t tell me that some of the Yellow Shirts aren’t hired thugs as well. One of my colleagues said his cousin was brought in from upcountry to run around to stir up excitement at a PAD protest in front of my company’s office and their march to the British embassy.

[Tulsa_Fireman]

Is that guy's name really Poo?

Is Poo a serious name in Thailand?

[Chuck Bao]

Is that guy's name really Poo?

Is Poo a serious name in Thailand?

No, that is his nickname. Most Thais go by nicknames instead of their real names.

In my office, I have an A, Bee, Vee, Big, Peach, Dum, Chai, Dear, Noi, Lek, Neng, Piek and a few others I can't remember. We often joke that we need a Cee and a Dee.

[soonerboomer93]

SHoDKldosXk

had to do it, it's what i think everythime i see this thread title

[Chuck Bao]

SHoDKldosXk

had to do it, it's what i think everythime i see this thread title

That vidclip must of done it, soonerboomer. Anyway, “I don’t need your civil war” has been playing in my ear for the last week.

So, here’s a quick update.

• On Tuesday, the Constitution Court dissolved the three largest government coalition parties and banned their executives from political office for five years on a charge of poll fraud in the general election last December.

• On Wednesday, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (anti-government yellow shirts) claimed victory and began their withdrawal from Bangkok’s two international airports.

• On Thursday, the airports began receiving flights. However, the airports won’t be back to capacity until Dec. 15.

• Although the major government parties are immediately dissolved, members of parliament (except for those party executives banned from politics) have 60 days to declare a new party affiliation and they still make up the majority of parliament. Most have already switched to a new standby dormant party and are set to select the new prime minister early next week.

• Then, the PAD starts its protests again and it will begin all over again.

• Thai people were looking forward to guidance from HM the King in his annual birthday speech on Thursday night. However, the King fell ill and did not address the nation.

I have a few comments:

Can you imagine a constitution that allows for the dominant political party, garnering nearly half of total votes in the nationwide election, to be dissolved and its 27 executives to be banned for five years because one candidate supposedly paid local officials to support his candidacy? It’s insane.

People are calling this coup by the judiciary.

And, how on earth could the PAD claim victory? They did far more damage to the country in one week with the closure of the airports than former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra did running the country in six years. At one point, there was an estimated 350,000 visitors stranded. Tourism is now expected to be cut in half next year, which will bankrupt many hotels. With air cargo shipments also affected, many businesses lost millions on ruined perishable goods. Where is the victory in that?

I had lunch with US embassy staff today and they said the damage from the airport closure was huge. They received many calls from US companies asking who is running the country. The obvious answer was “nobody”.

Most of all, I’m angry that I had to cancel my trip home for Christmas. I wasn’t about to pay for a ticket with the airports closed last week.

I hate the yellow shirts. I hate them so much. Now I’ve taken sides. I’m a red shirt, or more exactly a crimson shirt, and I’m proudly wearing my colors this weekend.

[OUHOMER]

Well, I am glad your safe, But it sucks you can not come home for Christmas.

[Okla-homey]

Chuck,

You sticking there no matter what?

I mean, if the political situation is in fact evolving into a sine curve of insanity as you seem to imply, might you consider moving to saner climes?

Or does the fact Nope can't get a visa kinda anchor you there in Thailand?

[Chuck Bao]

Well, I am glad your safe, But it sucks you can not come home for Christmas.

This will be the first Christmas I miss in eight years. I've made it home for Christmas for about 20 of the 23 years I've been in Asia.

It is the best time to visit because I've get to celebrate my dad's birthday (now deceased), my mom's birthday, Christmas, New Years, my birthday and we've made one Cotton Bowl and one Sugar Bowl :( .

This one will be the worst to miss because I would have just missed by niece's wedding, but still get in on some of the celebrations. My mom is severely stressed now and I should be there. Her sister just had a massive stroke and my 98-year old grandma is going through a very difficult time.

When I'm home, I check my grandma out of her nursing home every day and we go out and do things and I see her getting stronger every day. I'm always thankful that I get to spend time with her and I know that I don't have many more half-year trips to do that.

So yeah, it sucks. It sucks big time.

I'm thinking that an early January trip when things settle down a bit would be good. I need to plan for at least arriving my Jan 6 and be able to watch the BCS championship game, I'm thinking and hopefully not jinxing.

[OUHOMER]

I say just get here safe and sound. Your mom probably worries about you and fears the worst. The news does makes the situation over there sound really bad. So on top of her other worries she worries about her babies.

I know my mom seems to worry about things no matter what we tell her

[Chuck Bao]

Chuck,

You sticking there no matter what?

I mean, if the political situation is in fact evolving into a sine curve of insanity as you seem to imply, might you consider moving to saner climes?

Or does the fact Nope can't get a visa kinda anchor you there in Thailand?

Homey, I’ve already had my life thread stickied in Thailand.

Thailand is or has been a bit of paradise on Earth. I get paid a good salary for doing something that isn’t that difficult. I have permanent residency and that is something that is very difficult to obtain.

I would very much like to get Nope a visa to visit the US and introduce him to my family. And, let him see if he’d be happy living in the US. To directly answer your question, no I’m not leaving without him.

Going back on topic, one of the participants during our lunch discussion with the US embassy people, a head of a big local fund management company, commented that a prominent university professor predicted that Thailand could split into four countries – North Thailand, East Thailand, West Thailand and South Thailand. He said that it is an extreme view but it was a view not expressed by anyone just six months ago.

I was talking with a big retail client earlier this week and he was saying it is probably better to just run away. I asked him please don’t run away. But, I admitted that I have been in Thailand for 20 years and I am at a loss to recommend anything because I’ve never seen this deep division in Thai society. He said that he is Thai and has lived here his whole life and he hasn’t seen this before either.

[Chuck Bao]

For a quick update, the opposition party looks set to form the next government on Monday. The Thai stock market has rallied and the yellow shirts have claimed victory. Nobody is expecting the new government to last long anyway, so they’re not going to have a very lasting victory.

The red shirts haven't given up and are currently holding a rally at the National Stadium. The stadium holds about 40,000 and it’s reportedly filled with supporters who are waiting for a phone in speech by former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra.

There was a brief fight this morning. Nope was saying that he would attend this rally, but thankfully he didn’t.

Okay, I admit it I wish I’d gone to see the fight.

http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2008/12/13/politics/politics_30090891.php


Students battle red-shirted people
By The Nation

A group of Pathumwan Institute of Technology students fought with a group of red-shirted people in front of the National Stadium Saturday morning.
Witnesses said gunfire was heard during the fight, which broke out at 8:10 am.

The fight caused both inbound and outbound traffic on Rama I Road to be heavily congested.

The fight and sounds of gunfire and explosions prompted many red-shirted people to run for cover while the students shouted abusive words at the red-shirted people now and then from inside the college.

The fight came after a group of pro-Thaksin red-shirted people arrived outside the stadium waiting to attend the mobile Truth Today.

Before the students crossed the road to attack the red-shirted people, they came out in front of the college and waved hands to challenge the red-shirted to cross the road to meet them.

Following the fight, Pathumwan police station chief Pol Col Paisarn Luasomboon deployed 300 police to be stationed in front of the college to prevent students from coming out to clash with the supporters of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra again.

[Chuck Bao]

I know there isn’t much interest on Soonerfans about Thailand’s political problems, but I must post two articles from the Economist magazine, which explain all of the key issues leading up to Thailand’s current political problems.

In my opinion, the Economist is the best news magazine in the world – very knowledgeable, balanced and well-written.

These articles say what can’t be said inside Thailand. In fact, the Economist is now banned. The Thai foreign ministry wrote a letter to the editor, but it was very poorly written and didn’t make a lot of sense. Unfortunately, it was later taken down from the Nation website.

Thank god for the internet and foreign friends sending email.

These are very long but very interesting, in my opinion.

I could not share these articles with most of my Thai friends because their whole core belief system is based on the moral authority of the palace.


Thailand's king and its crisis

A right royal mess
Dec 4th 2008 | BANGKOK
From The Economist print edition

Thailand’s interminable political conflict has much to do with the taboo subject of its monarchy. That is why the taboo must be broken

EVEN the most revered of kings, worshipped by his people as a demigod, is not immortal. Thais were reminded of this last month when six days of ornate cremation ceremonies, with gilded carriages and armies of extras in traditional costumes, were held for Princess Galyani, the elder sister of their beloved King Bhumibol Adulyadej (pictured above). There was talk in Bangkok of the princess’s funeral being a “dress rehearsal” for the end of Bhumibol’s reign, 62 years long so far. Making one of few public appearances this year, shortly before his 81st birthday on December 5th, the king did indeed look his age.

The funeral only briefly calmed a political conflict that has raged for three years between supporters of Thaksin Shinawatra, the prime minister ousted by royalist generals in the 2006 coup, and an opposition movement backed by much of Bangkok’s traditional elite, apparently including Queen Sirikit. But the day after the ceremonies ended a grenade exploded among anti-Thaksin protesters, killing one. The anti-government protesters, the People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD), who had been occupying Government House since August, then seized Bangkok’s main airports, causing chaos. The siege was lifted only eight days later, after a court dissolved the main parties in the pro-Thaksin coalition government.

Mr Thaksin is in exile, convicted in absentia of corruption. But a government dominated by his allies has governed since democracy returned in last December’s elections. It looks poised to carry on under new party names despite the court ruling. Last month Mr Thaksin staged a huge rally of his “red shirt” supporters to remind his “yellow shirt” royalist foes in the PAD, who claim to be protecting the king against Mr Thaksin’s supposed republicanism, that he remains Thailand’s most popular politician.

Besides justified concerns about Mr Thaksin’s abuses of power, one of the royalists’ worries is that he was building, through populist policies such as cheap health care and microcredit, a patronage network and popular image that challenged the king’s. Another fear is that Mr Thaksin’s alleged generosity to Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn in the past was intended to build up influence with him once he succeeds to the throne. For these and other reasons, the little-told back-story of King Bhumibol is vital to understanding the predicament of this country of 64m people.

Many Thais will squirm at what follows, and will prefer the fairy-tale version of the king’s story. But the king’s past actions are root causes of a conflict dividing the country, and need to be examined.

Bhumibol’s tale, even if stripped of the mythology his courtiers have spent decades constructing around him, is exceptional. The American-born son of a half-Chinese commoner accidentally inherits a throne close to extinction and revives it, creating one of the world’s most powerful and wealthy monarchies, and surely the only one of any significance to have gained in political power in modern times. The king’s charisma, intelligence, talents (from playing the saxophone to rain-making, a science in which he holds a European patent) and deep concern for his people’s welfare make him adored at home and admired around the world. His image perhaps reaches its zenith in 1992, after the army shoots dozens of pro-democracy protesters in Bangkok, when television shows both the army leader (and prime minister) Suchinda Kraprayoon and the protest leader, Chamlong Srimuang (now a PAD stalwart), kneeling in an audience with him. Shortly afterwards General Suchinda resigns, and the king is given credit for the restoration of democracy.

However, Bhumibol’s story is also that of a king who lost faith in democracy (if he ever really had it), who constantly meddled behind the scenes in politics and thus, in the twilight of his reign, risks leaving behind a country unprepared for life without “Father”, as Thais affectionately call him. Understanding why a country that was until recently a beacon of pluralism in Asia has become such a “mess”, as the king put it in 2006, is impossible without lifting the thick veil of reverence surrounding him.

This is not easy because, paradoxically, a king whose adulation by his subjects is supposedly near-universal is nevertheless deemed to need protection, in the form of the world’s most ferociously enforced l?se-majest? law. Whereas other monarchies have mostly abolished or stopped enforcing such laws, Thailand’s was made harsher in the 1970s. Even the most mild, reasoned criticism of the monarchy is forbidden, punishable by up to 15 years in jail. This has had a remarkable effect not just on Thais but on successive generations of Western diplomats, academics and journalists who, with few exceptions, have meekly censored themselves.

All the king’s men
The origins of this, in part, were in the Vietnam war, in which America found King Bhumibol a staunch anti-communist ally. Recognising his value as an anti-red icon, America pumped propaganda funds into a campaign to put the king’s portrait in every Thai home. Even today, although quick to decry undemocratic moves in other Asian countries, America rarely protests at the arrests of Thais and foreigners for criticising the monarchy. Foreign journalists and academics need visas and access to officialdom to do their jobs, and thus have played down the royal angle to any story.

As a result of this conspiracy of silence, only one serious biography exists of one of Asia’s most important leaders. “The King Never Smiles”, by Paul Handley, an American journalist (2006), notes that the king’s restoration of the power and prestige of the Thai monarchy “is one of the great untold stories of the 20th century.”

Mr Handley says that in the two intervening years nobody has disputed the main facts in his book; not even the most damning stuff, which explodes the myth that the king rarely intervenes in politics and then only on the side of good. Perhaps his gravest charge is that in 1976 the king seemed to condone the growth of right-wing vigilante groups that, along with the army, were later responsible for the slaughter of peaceful student protesters. As has happened often in modern Thai history (and could easily happen again now), the 1976 unrest was used as a pretext to topple the government and replace it with a royally approved one.

Bhumibol was 18 when he took the throne after the mysterious death of his ineffectual brother, King Ananda, in 1946. He promptly came under the sway of his uncles, princes itching to restore the power and wealth the crown had lost when the absolute monarchy was abolished in 1932. As he grew into his robes in the 1950s he created a comprehensive patronage system. The award of honours in exchange for donations to royal causes made the monarchy the predominant fount of charity. This “network monarchy”, as it was dubbed by Duncan McCargo, a British academic, put the king back at the centre of Thai society and recovered much of his lost power.

A theme now embraced with gusto by the PAD, inspired by the king’s speeches over the years, is that electoral politics is irretrievably filthy and that Thailand would do better with ad hoc rule by royally favoured “good men”. The epitome of these is General Prem Tinsulanonda who, as unelected prime minister in the semi-democracy of the 1980s, did more than anyone else to foster the idea of the king’s near-divinity. Now president of the privy council, General Prem is also supposedly above politics. But this too is a myth: he is widely seen as the mastermind of the 2006 coup. Shortly beforehand he told the army that the king was its “owner” and Mr Thaksin merely a replaceable “jockey”.

Royalists wear yellow
The PAD is a motley bunch, united only by fanatical hatred of Mr Thaksin. It includes disgruntled businessmen, aristocratic ladies, members of a militaristic Buddhist outfit, formerly anti-monarchist intellectuals and reactionary army types. Its “new politics”, consisting of a partly appointed parliament, sweeping powers for military intervention and, of course, a strong crown, is “Premocracy” redux.

The army is a big part of the country’s predicament. Its generals believe they have a right to remove any government that incurs its, or the palace’s, displeasure—taking its cue from the monarchy that has approved so many of its coups. These two obstacles to Thailand’s democratic development are inextricably interlinked.

Mr Handley criticises the way the king has undermined the rule of law. When he has intervened to make known his wishes, his influence is such that it is taken as an order. In an example too late for the book, months before the 2006 coup the king ordered the country’s judges to do something about the political crisis. In a recording of a phone call between two Supreme Court judges shortly afterwards, later posted on the internet, one says they need to avoid the perception that they are following palace orders because “foreigners wouldn’t accept it”.

Since then, their interpretation of the king’s wishes has become increasingly clear, as the courts have rushed through cases against the former prime minister and his allies, while going easy on their critics. Some cases, such as the corruption allegations against Mr Thaksin, clearly deserved the courts’ attention. Others were trivial, such as the court-ordered sacking in September of Samak Sundaravej, the pro-Thaksin prime minister, for doing a television cookery show. In contrast, rebellion charges against the PAD’s leaders over their seizing of Government House were watered down and the courts freed them to continue the occupation.

None of this is to absolve Mr Thaksin and his cronies of their sins. But even his gravest abuse—a “war on drugs” in 2003, in which police were suspected of hundreds of extra-judicial killings—was not entirely his fault. The dirty war against supposed drug-dealers was misguidedly supported by Thais of all social classes. Even the king, in an equivocal speech that year, sounded at times as if he approved of it.

continued on next post

[Chuck Bao]

article continued from previous post


Father knows best
Other countries, from Spain to Brazil, have overcome dictatorial pasts to grow into strong democracies whose politics is mostly conducted in parliament, not on the streets. Thailand’s failure to follow suit is partly because “Father” has always been willing to step in and sort things out: his children have never quite had to grow up. The Democrats, the parliamentary opposition, are opportunists, cheering on the PAD while seemingly hoping for another royally approved coup to land the government in their lap.

The rage of Bangkok’s traditional elite against Mr Thaksin stems partly from embarrassment at having originally supported him. When he came to power in 2001 there was a feeling that Thailand needed a strong “CEO” leader, as the former businessman presented himself. His then party, Thai Rak Thai (TRT), was the first in Thai history to win a parliamentary majority on its own, and formed the first elected government to serve a full term, after which it was re-elected. Mr Thaksin’s policies of improved public services and credit for the poor, though self-serving, promised to improve an unequal, hierarchical society: another reason why the old palace-linked elite wants him eliminated.

The government of generals and bureaucrats installed by the 2006 coup-makers performed miserably. In last December’s elections, though TRT had been disbanded, Mr Thaksin’s new People’s Power Party won most seats. This spurred the PAD to resume its protests. In clashes in October PAD members fought the police with guns, bombs and sharp staves, hoping the army would again use disorder as the pretext for a coup. The PAD nevertheless blamed the clashes entirely on police brutality, and the anti-Thaksin Bangkok press let it get away with this. The death of one PAD member, apparently blown up in his car by the bomb he was carrying, was quickly buried. But the death of a young woman, reportedly when a police tear-gas canister exploded, became a cause c?l?bre.

Up to this point there were only whispers as to why the PAD enjoyed such lenient treatment—even from the army, which refused to help the police remove protesters from government offices. However, rumours of an extremely influential backer were confirmed when Queen Sirikit, attended by a clutch of cameramen, presided over the dead woman’s cremation. The king remained silent.

Nobody can discuss, of course, what effect the queen’s support has had on the majority of Thais who still, apparently, back Mr Thaksin. A whirl of l?se-majest? accusations have been made against pro- and anti-Thaksin figures. But the PAD’s ever more menacing behaviour, the palace’s failure to disown it, and the group’s insistence that Thais must choose between loyalty to Mr Thaksin and to the king, may be doing untold damage to the crown itself. Some of Mr Thaksin’s voters must be contemplating the flip-side of the PAD’s argument: if the monarchy is against the leader they keep voting for, maybe it is against them. Such feelings may only be encouraged by the PAD’s condescending arguments that the rural poor, Mr Thaksin’s main support base, are too “uneducated” to have political opinions, so their voting power must be reduced.

…to the stiff crown prince
At a pro-Thaksin rally in July a young activist ranted against the monarchy, calling the king “a thorn in the side of democracy” for having backed so many coups, and warning the royal family they risked the guillotine. She was quickly arrested. What shocked the royalist establishment was not just the startling criticism of the king—but that the activist was cheered. “It is more and more difficult for them to hold the illusion that the monarchy is universally adored,” says a Thai academic.

This illusion is crumbling amid growing worry about what happens when the king’s reign ends. The fears over Mr Thaksin’s past influence on the crown prince are overshadowed by far deeper ones about the suitability of the heir to the throne. Vajiralongkorn has shown little of his father’s charisma or devotion to duty, and in his youth suffered from a bad reputation. In a newspaper interview he defended himself against accusations that he was a gangster. But even his mother, in an extraordinary set of interviews on a visit to America in 1981, conceded he was a “bit of a Don Juan”. “If the people of Thailand do not approve of the behaviour of my son, then he would either have to change his behaviour or resign from the royal family,” she said.

Princess Sirindhorn is preferred...
The Thai press dutifully self-censored and certainly would not repeat these criticisms now. Nevertheless, the crown prince will probably remain deeply disliked. There has been speculation over the years that the king might pass the crown to the much more popular Princess Sirindhorn, who now does most of his job of touring the country to meet the masses. The 8pm nightly royal news on television constantly shows her, smiling through endless visits and ceremonies, making merit at Buddhist temples and doing other good works. In the crown prince’s rare appearances he looks reluctant and stiff, and is rarely seen meeting ordinary people.

The patrilineal tradition of the Chakri dynasty is unlikely to be broken. And the prominent role played by the crown prince in Princess Galyani’s cremation removed any doubts about whether he was the chosen heir, says a Thai academic. Even so, many Thais, a superstitious people, will remember an old prophecy that the dynasty would last for only nine generations—Bhumibol is the ninth Chakri king—and that a tenth would be a disaster.

Some day my prince…
For all these reasons, a former senior official with strong palace ties says there is a terror of what will come after Bhumibol. “When we say ‘Long live the king’ we really mean it, because we can’t bear to think of what the next step will be,” he says. Most Thais are too young to remember a time before Bhumibol took the throne. His death will be a leap into the unknown. It would seem wise for royal advisers to be doing some succession planning. But, says the former official, none seems to be going on. And any advice offered would probably not be heeded: “The king is his own man. Nobody advises the king,” he says.

In the shorter term, a trigger for renewed confrontation may be, if a pro-Thaksin government survives, its plan to amend the constitution passed during the military regime that followed the 2006 coup. Some mooted changes, such as restoring a fully elected Senate, seem reasonable. But the PAD assumes the main motive is to relieve Mr Thaksin and his allies of the various legal charges against them. Neither side yet seems willing to compromise. Both have made clear their readiness to use street mobs to achieve their ends.

A messy but effective “Thai-style compromise” is still hoped for, to pull the country back from the brink. It is even possible to dream of the red- and yellow-shirt movements transforming themselves into a well-behaved, mainstream two-party system with broad public participation. This, in turn, might help the country escape the dead hand of the courtiers and generals who are trying to drag the country into the past. But none of this is likely.

If Bhumibol’s glittering reign either ends in conflagration or leads to a Thailand paralysed by endless strife, with nobody of his stature to break the deadlock, it will be a tragedy. But he will have played a leading role in bringing about such an outcome. There is of course an opposing case to be made—that the king has been a stabilising influence in a volatile age, that his devotion to duty has been an inspiring example and that he has only ever done what he thought best for the country. But that case has been made publicly, day in, day out, for decades. Thais are not allowed to discuss in public the other side of the coin.

[Chuck Bao]

This is the second Economist article about Thailand's monarchy.


The king and them
Dec 4th 2008
From The Economist print edition

The untold story of the palace’s role behind the collapse of Thai democracy

THAILAND’S tourism business, its export industries and its reputation have been wrecked by recent events. Crowds of royalists have occupied the government’s offices for months and then seized Bangkok’s airports. The police refused to evict them. The army refused to help. This week the siege was ended after the courts disbanded three parties in the ruling coalition. But the parties plan to re-form under new names and continue governing, so fresh strife threatens. It is as if a thin veneer of modernity, applied during the boom of the 1980s and early 1990s, has peeled away. Until recently a beacon of Asian pluralism, Thailand is sliding into anarchy.

The conflict began three years ago as peaceful rallies against corruption and abuse of power in the government of Thaksin Shinawatra. The protesters, wearing royal-yellow shirts and accusing Mr Thaksin of being a closet republican, got their way when royalist generals removed him in the coup of 2006. But on democracy’s restoration last year, Thais elected a coalition led by Mr Thaksin’s allies. The yellow-shirts of the inaptly named People’s Alliance for Democracy (PAD) revived their protests and adopted increasingly thuggish tactics, prompting Mr Thaksin’s supporters to don red shirts and fight back.

Speak it not
Throughout this conflict, the great unmentionable, not just for the Thai press but also for most foreign reporters, has been the role of King Bhumibol, his family and their closest courtiers. The world’s most ferociously enforced law against l?se-majest? (offending the crown) prevents even the mildest discussion of the palace’s role in Thai public life. Such laws are mostly in disuse elsewhere, but Thailand’s was harshened in the 1970s. Absurdly, anyone can bring a l?se-majest? suit. The police have to take seriously the most trivial complaints. All this makes the law a useful tool for politicians and others seeking a way to damage their foes. Often, the press is not allowed to explain the nature of any supposed offence against the crown, so Thais have no way to tell whether it really was so disrespectful.

The l?se-majest? law is an outrage in itself. It should not be enforced in any country with democratic pretensions. Worse is that the law hides from Thais some of the reasons for their chronic political woes. For what the king himself calls the “mess” Thailand is in stems in many ways from his own meddling in politics during his 62-year reign (see article). In part, the strife also reflects jockeying for power ahead of the succession. With the king celebrating his 81st birthday on December 5th, that event looms ever larger.