8timechamps
11/20/2008, 01:43 PM
Since, like many of you, I cannot wait until Saturday, I thought I would post my own breakdown and what to watch for report card.
With the possibility of a Big XII title, a trip to a BCS bowl (or possibly BCS title game) and almost assuredly the Heisman trophy on the line, this is arguably the biggest game of the season.
First, a breakdown of Tech (since we already know about the Sooners):
Texas Tech
Offense
Rushing
In the past, Tech ran more of a Run and Shoot offense, with very little emphasis placed on the running game, or the use of a tight end. This year however, Tech has moved to a true spread offense (which incorporates the running game and includes more routes for the tight end). Surprisingly enough, Tech has a more prolific running game this year than they have had since Leach arrived in Lubbock. Currently, Tech ranks 73rd in the NCAA in total rushing offense. The highest Tech has ever finished a season in Leach’s tenure was 104th in 2005.
The workhorses for the Raiders are sophomore Baron Batch and senior Shannon Woods. Although Tech has worked to incorporate the running game into their spread offense, only Shannon Woods has broken the 100 yard mark in a game (against UMass back in September). Woods is their main back, with 11 TDs on the season, but expect to see both backs in the game Saturday.
Receiving
It’s no secret Tech has one of (if not) the best receivers in the country in Crabtree. It seems that the key to beating Tech is keeping the ball out of Crabtree’s hands (Hello captain obvious). His season low receptions came against Nebraska (5 catches for 89 yards), a game that they had to win in OT. The other players to watch are sophomore Detron Lewis and senior Eric Morris. Neither have numbers close to Crabtree, but are both considered possession receivers that can move the ball.
Offensive Line
They’re big! They average close to 330, with only one sub 300lb’er (center Shawn Byrnes…who is probably over 300 since the press guide came out). They are all athletic and move well, however, they have relied on a “big” split on the line to keep defenses from applying pressure from the outside. When facing defenses with a stronger inside rush, they will adjust the split to compensate for the pressure in the middle. Nebraska was able to apply pressure to Harrell (although, they were never able to sack him). The line has only given up 5 sacks all year.
Quarterback
Unless you’ve been under a rock this year, you know all about the Graham Harrell. All about his 4,000 yards passing, his 5 interceptions and his position as a frontrunner for the Heisman (at least for the time being). While Harrell has a lethal arm, he is not a mobile QB. He currently has -5 yards on 28 carries. Colt McCoy he ain’t. Harrell is at his best in the pocket, behind his behemoth O-Line. His worst game of the year came against Nevada (way back in September). He went 19 of 46 for 297 yards with 1 TD and 2 picks. Since that game, he’s been almost perfect (270 of 359 a 75% completion rate with only 2 interceptions). The two interceptions he’s thrown in the past 8 games came in the same game against Texas A&M (where he went 44 of 56 for 450 yards and 3 TDs). Looking back at the Nebraska and Nevada games, it appears that the key to stopping Harrell is to apply pressure (doesn’t have to be sacks). In both games, the opposing defenses were able to keep their respective teams in the game. Since Harrell isn’t a mobile guy, once pressured, he tends to make bad decisions rather than taking the sack or throwing it away. That may be his only weakness.
Defense
Despite all the talk about how Tech’s defense has improved and is playing at a different level than years past, they rank 60th in the NCAA in total defense (#3 in the Big XII). Their worst ranking since 2003. They rank 20th against the run (giving up an average of 107 yards a game), and 98th in passing defense (giving up an average of 244 yards per game). So, in a nutshell, they are good against the run, but can’t stop the pass.
They rank 23rd in the country in sacks with 26 (OU ranks 3rd with 34 sacks, a little known nugget of information). They also rank 26th in scoring defense (allowing an average of 22.2 points per game).
Enough stats, who is their defensive playmaker…
Darcel McBath. The senior CB is the cornerstone of their secondary. He’s among the best DBs in the country and has 6 picks on the year. Daniel Charbonnet is the “other” CB for the Raiders. He’s more of a lockdown guy (or as close to one as Tech has) and has 5 picks so far this season.
The guy to watch on the D-Line is junior DE Brandon Williams. He’s a good sized end with speed. He’s #5 in the country with 10 sacks this season. He can get to the QB quickly on the pass rush, but is also a good run stopper and ranks among the nation’s best in forced fumbles. He’s definitely Tech’s best defensive player. He is on the same level as Texas’ Orakpo.
Final Analysis
I think the game will hinge on just a couple of things things:
1. Our defense – In particular Nic Harris. I think Harris will be responsible for covering Crabtree over the top. If Nic plays the way we know he can, it could be a repeat of the Nebraska game for Crabtree. If he goes back to his K-State effort, we could be in trouble. I think he’ll shine, and Crabtree will be kept somewhat in check. We also must get pressure on Harrell! He’s proven that he struggles under pressure. If we can get him to move out of the pocket, it could get ugly for the Raiders.
2. Special Teams – No big surprise here. The good news is that we have stopped the bleeding on special teams over the past few weeks. The bad news is that Tech is #15 in the country for kickoff returns. The flipside to their success in the kickoff return game is their horrific punting (117th out of 119 FBS teams).
I’m not worried about our offense. Sam has the added motivation of missing most of last year’s game. The home field advantage will be big. If the crowd stays in the game, it could be worth more than the mythical 3 points.
So, here’s the final breakdown
Running Backs: Oklahoma (Murray/Brown are superior to Batch/Woods)
Receivers: Texas Tech (There’s no denying Crabtree’s talent)
Quarterbacks: Oklahoma (Bradford can run when needed)
O-Line: Tie (both are big and athletic…too close to call)
D-Line: Texas Tech (by a slim margin. Williams would start for the Sooners)
Linebackers: Oklahoma (Tech’s defensive weakness).
Secondary: Tie (based on pure numbers…neither are dominating)
Kicking game: Oklahoma (surprised? Don’t be. Don’t forget, Tech is still “experimenting” with a guy that won a kicking contest. We don’t have a solid kicking game, but theirs is worse).
Kickoff/Punt Returns: Texas Tech (a solid return unit combined with our shaky special teams play gives the edge to Tech.
Final prediction: Oklahoma 49 Texas Tech 42
The End
With the possibility of a Big XII title, a trip to a BCS bowl (or possibly BCS title game) and almost assuredly the Heisman trophy on the line, this is arguably the biggest game of the season.
First, a breakdown of Tech (since we already know about the Sooners):
Texas Tech
Offense
Rushing
In the past, Tech ran more of a Run and Shoot offense, with very little emphasis placed on the running game, or the use of a tight end. This year however, Tech has moved to a true spread offense (which incorporates the running game and includes more routes for the tight end). Surprisingly enough, Tech has a more prolific running game this year than they have had since Leach arrived in Lubbock. Currently, Tech ranks 73rd in the NCAA in total rushing offense. The highest Tech has ever finished a season in Leach’s tenure was 104th in 2005.
The workhorses for the Raiders are sophomore Baron Batch and senior Shannon Woods. Although Tech has worked to incorporate the running game into their spread offense, only Shannon Woods has broken the 100 yard mark in a game (against UMass back in September). Woods is their main back, with 11 TDs on the season, but expect to see both backs in the game Saturday.
Receiving
It’s no secret Tech has one of (if not) the best receivers in the country in Crabtree. It seems that the key to beating Tech is keeping the ball out of Crabtree’s hands (Hello captain obvious). His season low receptions came against Nebraska (5 catches for 89 yards), a game that they had to win in OT. The other players to watch are sophomore Detron Lewis and senior Eric Morris. Neither have numbers close to Crabtree, but are both considered possession receivers that can move the ball.
Offensive Line
They’re big! They average close to 330, with only one sub 300lb’er (center Shawn Byrnes…who is probably over 300 since the press guide came out). They are all athletic and move well, however, they have relied on a “big” split on the line to keep defenses from applying pressure from the outside. When facing defenses with a stronger inside rush, they will adjust the split to compensate for the pressure in the middle. Nebraska was able to apply pressure to Harrell (although, they were never able to sack him). The line has only given up 5 sacks all year.
Quarterback
Unless you’ve been under a rock this year, you know all about the Graham Harrell. All about his 4,000 yards passing, his 5 interceptions and his position as a frontrunner for the Heisman (at least for the time being). While Harrell has a lethal arm, he is not a mobile QB. He currently has -5 yards on 28 carries. Colt McCoy he ain’t. Harrell is at his best in the pocket, behind his behemoth O-Line. His worst game of the year came against Nevada (way back in September). He went 19 of 46 for 297 yards with 1 TD and 2 picks. Since that game, he’s been almost perfect (270 of 359 a 75% completion rate with only 2 interceptions). The two interceptions he’s thrown in the past 8 games came in the same game against Texas A&M (where he went 44 of 56 for 450 yards and 3 TDs). Looking back at the Nebraska and Nevada games, it appears that the key to stopping Harrell is to apply pressure (doesn’t have to be sacks). In both games, the opposing defenses were able to keep their respective teams in the game. Since Harrell isn’t a mobile guy, once pressured, he tends to make bad decisions rather than taking the sack or throwing it away. That may be his only weakness.
Defense
Despite all the talk about how Tech’s defense has improved and is playing at a different level than years past, they rank 60th in the NCAA in total defense (#3 in the Big XII). Their worst ranking since 2003. They rank 20th against the run (giving up an average of 107 yards a game), and 98th in passing defense (giving up an average of 244 yards per game). So, in a nutshell, they are good against the run, but can’t stop the pass.
They rank 23rd in the country in sacks with 26 (OU ranks 3rd with 34 sacks, a little known nugget of information). They also rank 26th in scoring defense (allowing an average of 22.2 points per game).
Enough stats, who is their defensive playmaker…
Darcel McBath. The senior CB is the cornerstone of their secondary. He’s among the best DBs in the country and has 6 picks on the year. Daniel Charbonnet is the “other” CB for the Raiders. He’s more of a lockdown guy (or as close to one as Tech has) and has 5 picks so far this season.
The guy to watch on the D-Line is junior DE Brandon Williams. He’s a good sized end with speed. He’s #5 in the country with 10 sacks this season. He can get to the QB quickly on the pass rush, but is also a good run stopper and ranks among the nation’s best in forced fumbles. He’s definitely Tech’s best defensive player. He is on the same level as Texas’ Orakpo.
Final Analysis
I think the game will hinge on just a couple of things things:
1. Our defense – In particular Nic Harris. I think Harris will be responsible for covering Crabtree over the top. If Nic plays the way we know he can, it could be a repeat of the Nebraska game for Crabtree. If he goes back to his K-State effort, we could be in trouble. I think he’ll shine, and Crabtree will be kept somewhat in check. We also must get pressure on Harrell! He’s proven that he struggles under pressure. If we can get him to move out of the pocket, it could get ugly for the Raiders.
2. Special Teams – No big surprise here. The good news is that we have stopped the bleeding on special teams over the past few weeks. The bad news is that Tech is #15 in the country for kickoff returns. The flipside to their success in the kickoff return game is their horrific punting (117th out of 119 FBS teams).
I’m not worried about our offense. Sam has the added motivation of missing most of last year’s game. The home field advantage will be big. If the crowd stays in the game, it could be worth more than the mythical 3 points.
So, here’s the final breakdown
Running Backs: Oklahoma (Murray/Brown are superior to Batch/Woods)
Receivers: Texas Tech (There’s no denying Crabtree’s talent)
Quarterbacks: Oklahoma (Bradford can run when needed)
O-Line: Tie (both are big and athletic…too close to call)
D-Line: Texas Tech (by a slim margin. Williams would start for the Sooners)
Linebackers: Oklahoma (Tech’s defensive weakness).
Secondary: Tie (based on pure numbers…neither are dominating)
Kicking game: Oklahoma (surprised? Don’t be. Don’t forget, Tech is still “experimenting” with a guy that won a kicking contest. We don’t have a solid kicking game, but theirs is worse).
Kickoff/Punt Returns: Texas Tech (a solid return unit combined with our shaky special teams play gives the edge to Tech.
Final prediction: Oklahoma 49 Texas Tech 42
The End