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View Full Version : If you had the chance to ask, what would you ask?



Chuck Bao
11/18/2008, 01:12 AM
I'm stressed now. I have to come up with a set of questions that are easy to ask and difficult to answer. Okay, they are difficult to ask because they are difficult to answer and not make that person supposed to answer them look bad.

We are arranging a lunch gathering of fund managers and the commercial attache of the US embassey is the guest speaker. My job is to get the topics lined up so that the fund managers know what to expect and the commericial attache gets the questions before they are asked.

Did I mention that I'm stressed about the whole ordeal.

These are my questions:

US economic policies under the new Obama administration in
response to a global economic/financial crisis and threat to world trade


Key issues:


Expectations of sharply slowing US economic growth and the resulting impact on the global economy.

Arguments for or against the view that US consumers are already tapped out and stimulus packages are essentially wasteful and prolong the inevitable reckoning that US consumers can no longer afford to be the key growth engine of global demand.

Possible measures adopted by the Obama administration to support the housing market and stem the tide of deflation and wealth destruction.

Possible changes in accounting policy to allow gradual re-capitalization and recovery in asset values of the banking sector.

The ability of the Obama administration to curb outsourcing. Possible tax incentives and other measures to stem the relocation of industries to export-oriented Asian economies.

Possible measures of the Obama administration to re-negotiate current trade agreements, particularly in regard to the environment, health and wealth care of workers, labor unions and more market appropriate exchange rates.

The ability of the US to support and promote specific key industries that are deemed strategic and have large-scale employment, such as auto, aero, medical/pharmaceutical/entertainment.

The scenario where anti-piracy measures are stepped up and cheap medicine becomes more of a trade issue regardless of the affordability of the importing nation.

The scenario of a weakening dollar and rising interest rates on the back of increasing cost of financing of rising US government debt.

Recommended advice to the Thai government in dealing with a contracting global economy and continuing to attract new foreign investment.


Did I forget anything?

Probably. Help me out here.

On a side note, the MarketWatch.com finally posted their piece on Thailand and I was only quoted a couple of times. It was taken out of context and they ended with my quote. I should have done the video thing.


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/thailand-faces-local-global-problems/story.aspx?guid=%7B2C7CDA11%2D7E14%2D4EEF%2DA69A%2 DFDE0B5DBC5B2%7D&dist=msr_1

Ike
11/18/2008, 02:23 AM
Ditka vs. Chuck Norris?


eh, I got nuthin

OUHOMER
11/18/2008, 05:58 AM
How about energy. I think it will will still have an affect in coming years on the economy. either green technology will improve. middle will start to shut down the taps. Etc

I got nothing

Oldnslo
11/18/2008, 10:42 AM
Chuck,

I bought GM stock at $6, thinking it was a steal. I sold when my stop-loss kicked in at $3.

You're asking ME for advice?

Srsly.

Veritas
11/18/2008, 11:13 AM
To add to the second point, I'd be curious to know if he/they anticipate the Peltzman effect taking, um, effect as the gubmint recapitalizes financial institutions.

Getem
11/18/2008, 06:22 PM
I thought this thread was going to be about Jesus

Chuck Bao
11/19/2008, 04:57 PM
To add to the second point, I'd be curious to know if he/they anticipate the Peltzman effect taking, um, effect as the gubmint recapitalizes financial institutions.

I had to Wikipedia the Peltzman effect. I'm more accustomed to the term "moral hazard". But, that is a good question. I will add this question because we saw the full blunt of it before in the aftermath of the Asian economic crisis when voluntary loan defaults pushed up the total loan default rate to about 50%.

In my opinion, bankers never learn the lesson, ever. That is regardless of the bailout terms.

The question that may not be so obvious is whether the corporate or consumer sector learn their lessons. Since the recovery after the Asian economic crisis, Thai corporates and consumers are not willing to take on much new debt despite the willingness of the banks to lend. That may not be representative of the US since Thailand doesn't offer much social safety net for consumers, the corporate sector is largely family owned and run and they don't want to be the generation that lost the family business and Thailand doesn't have the bankruptcy laws like the US.

From a US perspective, that could the Peltzman effect or moral hazard.

So, good question.

Tulsa_Fireman
11/19/2008, 05:07 PM
Ask if they like midget porn.

Chuck Bao
11/20/2008, 08:01 PM
Ask if they like midget porn.

As much as I find midget pr0n like totally inappropriate, I'm going to have to say that we all are growing smaller and the pr0n is looking much less inappropriate. I mean how much longer can we keep saying: "ohhhhs nooooes" and "how much lower can we go"?

The Dow didn't only fall through the 8,000 level. Asia is going to have a tough day today and then what?

It's like we are all watching midget pr0n.

Oh, never buy into the market on a Friday. It seems we are now always getting new midget news over the weekend.