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View Full Version : How we get to the Championship without winning the Big XII . . .



KingDavid
10/26/2008, 03:19 PM
Aside from the obvious - we must win all of our remaining games - here's what we need to have happen, IMO. There are two scenarios, both of which require Penn State to lose at least one game.

In Scenario One, we would rematch against Texas in the Orange Bowl. For this to work, we need three results to play out.


Penn State must lose.
The SEC champion must have two losses. There are a variety of ways this could happen, but the simplest is that the winner of Georgia-Florida must lose one other game prior to defeating their opponent in the SEC championship.
The voters in the Harris and Coach's polls must avoid a complete scandal of epic proportions that would cause President Boren and Coach Stoops to take up arms against the entire non-Sooner world.

Possible Objections to Scenario One:
Objection #1. What about USC, you say? That's part of the reason why I put in the "avoid a scandal" caveat. To put USC in the title game, the voter's would have to venture into a coordinated effort of unprecedented proportions - far, far worse than what happened last year to Geogia. It's the computers that make the difference here. Because USC will likely be ranked towards the bottom of the computer's top 10, while OU would be a strong #2, this means that the human voters in the final polls would not only need to SWAP OU and USC in the final rankings (which would be scandalous enough given that OU would have finished off it's season with two straight victories over top 15 teams, possibly even two top 10 teams); but the might even need to drop OU down two spots to #4. Can you imagine dropping a team two slots who'd just pulled off two huge wins, one on the opponent's home field? That would be a scandal of almost epic proportions given that will likely have finished off our season with two victories against top 10 opponents. It just couldn't happen. Not in America. If it were to happen, I'll pack up my belongings and move to Canada.

Objection #2. What about a two loss Champion from the SEC, you say? Again, it's the computers that will save us, here. A two loss SEC champion would be buried even further in the computer rankings than a one loss USC.
Objection #3. What about a one loss Penn State? Only the most foolish would make this argument. Come now. There's no way a team from the weak-*** Big X slips by us, especially with a late season loss to a low or unranked team.

In Scenario Two, we meet up with Alabama in the Championship. And in this scenario, we only need two things to happen, IMO:


Again, Penn State must lose; and
Texas must lose the Big XII Championship.
Comments. For the same reasons stated above, I do not believe USC would be able to jump past us in the final polls. And they'd have far less incentive to do so because they wouldn't feel compelled to vote against an All Big XII rematch.
There you have it. That's my take (for now)!:D

TripleOption14
10/26/2008, 03:37 PM
Penn St. is not gonna lose unfortunately. Their schedule is cake from here on out. Just not our year friend.

KingDavid
10/26/2008, 03:46 PM
Actually, you make a good point. We can still get in and play Penn State as as long as long as Texas loses in the Big XII championship & the pollsters don't pull off an epic screw-job.

The odds are against us, either way. My point is that the ways for us to slip into the title game are not as narrow as they might appear at first glance. We have at least three scenarios where (IMO) we can get in.

A fourth out-of-the-ordinary scenario would involve Texas Tech beating Texas, but getting their only loss in Norman. This would leave Tech, Texas, and OU in a three way tie for the South division, in which OU would hold the tie-breaker edge by virture of having the highest BCS average (most likely).

Big Red Ron
10/26/2008, 03:52 PM
Man, where have you been? This has been hashed and rehashed about 100 times since the minute we lost to texass.

KYSooner
10/26/2008, 04:43 PM
As someone said previously, I think people don't realize how open the doors are for us still. There are some things that MUST happen in order for us to get in, but there are things that are currently in our favor.

MUST HAPPEN:
-Bama or PSU must lose, and/or Texas must lose
-SEC champion will probably have to have 2 losses

IN OUR FAVOR:
-the Oregon St. loss may cost USC the pac-10
-narrow win over AZ may cost USC in the long run as they may be in a similar situation to us
-we have beaten a potential conference champion in TCU (MWC is 3rd best conf. in terms of ranked teams)
-if we win out, we will have beaten 4 ranked teams.

Now if everything falls into place for us, the only thing we have to watch out for is Florida. They have Georgia, Fla. St., Vandy and an SEC champ. game ahead of them. A 1 loss Florida team could very well get in over an undefeated Penn St. team with how much the voters lust over the SEC.

sooner94
10/26/2008, 04:47 PM
Unless we get better on D, I don't want to see us in the national title game.

And no way we get in ahead of Texas unless they lose 2 games.

hink4769
10/26/2008, 04:54 PM
Unless we get better on D, I don't want to see us in the national title game.

And no way we get in ahead of Texas unless they lose 2 games.

I think we may get in ahead of Texas if they win out but lose in the CCG, not that we should. If we can't even win our division, we don't deserve to play for the NC, just that plain and simple as far as I see it. I don't care how awesome everyone says the Big 12 South is, if we can't be the best out of a subset of 6 teams, how can we claim to be the best out of 118?

MojoRisen
10/26/2008, 04:58 PM
I still think it is possible for Tech to beat Texas and Oklahoma St - if we win out and that is a big "if" - we could be rated higher than Texas by beating a top 15 OSU and a top 3 Tech in the BCS rankings.

Big 12 Champs - with one loss agains't a SEC Champ with one loss- they would have to rob us to move Bama Florida or Georgia over us with one loss this year.. Big 12 = or > than SEC this year.

We could play Penn St - we would win big as well...

Collier11
10/26/2008, 05:04 PM
If we dont get our D fixed up Tech and Puke st will score 50 on us

UTsucks
10/26/2008, 05:17 PM
Me thinks OKLAHOMA LITE in Stoolwater may pose a slight problem with our "D" giving up 70 to them. Now if we can score 71 were golden :pop:

ESPN has us in the Cotton bowl (one guy does) :eek:

Sooner Stew
10/26/2008, 05:18 PM
yeah in the two games combined maybe...no way we give up 50 at our house to tech...and the last game at Stoolwater will be a very good matchup...close game in the 20's or 30's IMO...I think OUr d will be ready to play. Every game is different..I think they have a couple of really good games in them...the key is how much pressure they can get on Harrell and Robinson and you gotta keep on causing turnovers like they did yesterday

85sooners
10/26/2008, 06:16 PM
lol

Iam4OUru
10/26/2008, 06:44 PM
A 1 loss Florida team could very well get in over an undefeated Penn St. team with how much the voters lust over the SEC.


Nah, too much sentimental stuff goin' on with Joe Pa. Gaytors might very well be the best team in the country right now and could still get in but not over PSU.

sooner94
10/26/2008, 06:53 PM
I think we may get in ahead of Texas if they win out but lose in the CCG, not that we should. If we can't even win our division, we don't deserve to play for the NC, just that plain and simple as far as I see it. I don't care how awesome everyone says the Big 12 South is, if we can't be the best out of a subset of 6 teams, how can we claim to be the best out of 118?

I think the coaches and Harris poll voterts will keep that from happening. If Texas wins out, then loses the CCG, the voters will put Texas ahead of us (if we win out).

badger
10/26/2008, 09:59 PM
Why don't we just ask 2001 Nebraska?

Hey Little Red, how did you get to the title game?
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/05zp9hf5Hq3Dh/610x.jpg
And there you have it, folks - you bounce on top of your head.

No, seriously! You hit your head against one of your conference division opponents who goes to the Big 12 championship game, sit back and watch while the higher ranked team in that game lays a big Chrissy Simms egg, then waltz on into the title game!

Dan Thompson
10/26/2008, 10:28 PM
I think we need to do more than 'win out'. I think we need to play a complete game. All 4 quarters.

Where was our offense in the 3rd and 4th quarter against KSU?

hink4769
10/26/2008, 10:33 PM
Why don't we just ask 2001 Nebraska?
No, seriously! You hit your head against one of your conference division opponents who goes to the Big 12 championship game, sit back and watch while the higher ranked team in that game lays a big Chrissy Simms egg, then waltz on into the title game!

The Chris Simms years were so nice for the rest of the Big XII

KingDavid
10/26/2008, 10:42 PM
I think the coaches and Harris poll voterts will keep that from happening. If Texas wins out, then loses the CCG, the voters will put Texas ahead of us (if we win out).

I'm not so sure about that. If Texas loses, it will probably be to a 2 or 3 loss team from the North, and we will have just come off victories over two highly ranked teams.

It depends on to whom the loss occurs. If it's Mizzou, probably they'd put Texas in. If it were to Kansas, then I think they'd put us in.

KingDavid
10/26/2008, 10:47 PM
Man, where have you been? This has been hashed and rehashed about 100 times since the minute we lost to texass.

C'mon, man. Where have YOU been? Surely you're not expecting genuine originality of thought on a college football message board . . . right?

If everyone's appetite were completed sated on the matter, the thread would have drifted off to the far reaches of page 2 and beyond . . . as it will shortly.