Georgia - Russian conflict

[CatfishSooner]

Do you think there is a chance of the US interveining militarily in this conflict. I mean can we really stand by and allow Russia to take over a country who is one of our close allies? If the US does decide to intercede militarily what might that amount to? This seems to be a rather precarious situation... Thoughts?

[Jerk]

We ought to be airlifting Javelin and Stinger missiles to them by the metric ton by now. Regardless, this is going to make us look very weak to our other Eastern European allies.

[Turd_Ferguson]

I suspect there is quite of bit of "back channel" communique from the USA at this time.

[SicEmBaylor]

The Russians are likely going to try to depose the elected government of Georgia which is extremely pro-western and pro-US.

There's not a lot we could do militarily unless we're prepared to fight an out-right war with Russia which we're not. HOWEVER, I wish we were supplying them with more ammo, intelligence, hardware, etc.

I do know that the US furnished the air transportation necessary to withdraw Georgia's troops from Iraq and get them back home to Georgia.

There's just not a lot we can do.

[olevetonahill]

Do they Have any OIL . Cause Yall Know we Only Fight for OIL :rolleyes:

[CatfishSooner]

Do they Have any OIL . Cause Yall Know we Only Fight for OIL :rolleyes:

They got natural gas with plans on a pipeline or something...does anyone know anymore on this aspect?

[SicEmBaylor]

They got natural gas with plans on a pipeline or something...does anyone know anymore on this aspect?

Yes, they have a MAJOR oil pipeline that moves oil from the Caucus oil fields to the West. The Russians have evidently targeted the pipeline, but I don't what kind of damage has been done to it.

[SicEmBaylor]

This conflict utterly fascinates me. I was up last night thinking about it, and it occurred to me that the Russians had to have been waiting for some sort of "excuse" to invade Georgia because they already had the troops, equipment, supplies, etc. pre-positioned and rolling into the place within a matter of hours after Georgia attempted to stabilize Ossetia.

Today I heard someone on Fox News bring up this very point along with, how did we not notice the Russians building up their forces on the border of Georgia? It evidently caught everyone off guard, and I think this represents another major failure of our intelligence community. We should have noticed that.

The Russians carefully orchestrated and coaxed Georgia into giving them the pretext for invasion. If we allow the Russians to depose the legitimate government of Georgia then this is going to be a REALLY bad remake of the German annexation of the Sudetenland.

[olevetonahill]

By Gawd then If they gots OIL lets Go.:pop:

[Turd_Ferguson]

How do we know that it's not a coincidence that Russia is "pre-occupied" with Georgia, China is "pre-occupied with the Olympics", and Israel is get'n ready to pounce on Hockminijad?;)

[mdklatt]

Today I heard someone on Fox News bring up this very point along with, how did we not notice the Russians building up their forces on the border of Georgia? It evidently caught everyone off guard, and I think this represents another major failure of our intelligence community. We should have noticed that.


Let's buy the CIA some Xboxes.

From the Ghost Recon manual (2002):


The year is 2008, and the world teeters on the brink of war. Radical ultranationalists have seized power in Moscow--their goal, the reestablishment of the old Soviet empire. ... Russian tanks sit in the Caucasus Mountains...poised to strike to the south and east.


Your first mission briefing:


Here's the situation: We've been deployed at the request of the Georgian government to help them deal with rebels on their Russian border. Our area of operations will be the South Ossetian Autonomous region -- 1500 square miles of small villages and rugged backcountry. The Ossetians have been skirmishing with the Georgian army for years, but lately the attacks have escalated to the verge of all-out war. Washington thinks that the Russians have engineered the current flare-up as an excuse to step in and annex the whole region. Our job is to cut the legs out from under the revolution before that can happen.

Apparently there are some game developers at Ubisoft that have a better handle on world affairs than the US government.

[SoonerProphet]

Why would they not have any military hardware on scene? I'm sure the Russians in the Defense Ministry have contingency plans and units ready to roll. It has been a rather contested area since the collapse of the USSR, as such it would seem pretty dumb not to have a military force in place.

As for doing something, I have heard a litany of rhetoric from the unipolar folks, not much based on the reality of the situation. The arrival of troops from Iraq is a strong signal of support, but flying or shipping arms via the Black Sea sounds like a recipe for disaster.

[tommieharris91]

Yes, they have a MAJOR oil pipeline that moves oil from the Caucus oil fields to the West. The Russians have evidently targeted the pipeline, but I don't what kind of damage has been done to it.

Reports I'm hearing are that they didn't target that pipeline because Russian oil moves through that pipeline. That and they don't wanna **** off the international community more than they already have.

[Jerk]

Maybe the Russians will make a move on another former Soviet state soon, like Poland, who is also extremely pro-US. If it starts to spread, and you are a young man of draft age, you better get your affairs in order.

[soonersn20xx]

So we avoided war with Russia for over 60 years with administrations of both parties, but now some of you think military intervention is the only answer here?

[olevetonahill]

So we avoided war with Russia for over 60 years with administrations of both parties, but now some of you think military intervention is the only answer here?

Only If we get thier Oil
Pay tention

[Okla-homey]

This dust-up is over a section of Georgia that wants to secede from Georgia, and the Russians think that seceding section will naturally be drawn into the Russian gravitational sphere of influence.

Nothing new to see here.

That said, like the Georgians, I consider this secession stuff to be a load of crap. The Georgians should just shoot the ring-leaders in the wanna-be break away district and be done with it.

[royalfan5]

This dust-up is over a section of Georgia that wants to secede from Georgia, and the Russians think that seceding section will naturally be drawn into the Russian gravitational sphere of influence.

Nothing new to see here.

That said, like the Georgians, I consider this secession stuff to be a load of crap. The Georgians should just shoot the ring-leaders in the wanna-be break away district and be done with it.

The Georgians have been unable to assert their authority in South Ossestia for the past 16 years. Plus, considering the fact that they are part of Georgia is rather artifical anyway, as it's not like they asked to be part of Georgia and reconsidered at a later date.

[Okla-homey]

The Georgians have been unable to assert their authority in South Ossestia for the past 16 years. Plus, considering the fact that they are part of Georgia is rather artifical anyway, as it's not like they asked to be part of Georgia and reconsidered at a later date.

Saddam used that same logic to invade Kuwait. Q8 had always been part of Iraq until some mapmakers separated it post-WWII. Kuwait and Saudi begged to differ.

[SicEmBaylor]

This dust-up is over a section of Georgia that wants to secede from Georgia, and the Russians think that seceding section will naturally be drawn into the Russian gravitational sphere of influence.

That's way hell of a simplification. In actuality, the Russians and Georgians had agreed to allow Russian troops into the region as "peace keepers" but once they were in the territory they started supporting by funding and arming a separatist movement that is incompatible with their mission as peace keepers. They also gave Russian citizenship to any any Ossestians that wanted it. It'd be a bit like Canada giving American citizens in Montana citizenship and then using their protect as a pretext for invasion.


That said, like the Georgians, I consider this secession stuff to be a load of crap. The Georgians should just shoot the ring-leaders in the wanna-be break away district and be done with it.

That's likely what they were trying to do. This started when Georgia sent their military into Ossetia to re-establish Georgian control which gave Russia the pretext it had been looking for to invade.

In any case, I wish we were doing more to support Georgia.

[reevie]

Today I heard someone on Fox News bring up this very point along with, how did we not notice the Russians building up their forces on the border of Georgia? It evidently caught everyone off guard, and I think this represents another major failure of our intelligence community. We should have noticed that.


I'd lay my money that the government saw it, but the MSM didn't. And why should the MSM pay attention to some Caucus country that they've never heard of, they've got better things to cover like Brett Favre, Paris Hilton campaign videos and Heath Ledger's Oscar prospects.

[SicEmBaylor]

I'd lay my money that the government saw it, but the MSM didn't. And why should the MSM pay attention to some Caucus country that they've never heard of, they've got better things to cover like Brett Favre, Paris Hilton campaign videos and Heath Ledger's Oscar prospects.

I'm really not so sure that the government caught it at all. Bush's actions at the Olympics, the response and movements of Sec. Rice, and general inaction leads me to believe they were taken off-guard. I honestly do not believe our government knew that the Russians were going to invade. HOWEVER, they surely knew that Georgia was going to invade Ossestia since they're a close ally and I can't imagine them making that move without giving us a heads up.

[Mjcpr]

Is there a country out there with less credibility than us when it comes to telling people who they can or cannot invade?

[SicEmBaylor]

Is there a country out there with less credibility than us when it comes to telling people who they can or cannot invade?

Yes, and it just so happens to be Russia.

[Mjcpr]

Yes, and it just so happens to be Russia.

Sweet, I knew there had to be one. Tell 'em to back the **** off!

:D

[Chuck Bao]

Let's see: sovereign land or democracy, sovereign land or democracy.

I'm going with democracy and local people's right to choose.

That's why I hate China and that's why I'm backing the big dog in this fight. Go Russia!

[SicEmBaylor]

Let's see: sovereign land or democracy, sovereign land or democracy.

I'm going with democracy and local people's right to choose.

That's why I hate China and that's why I'm backing the big dog in this fight. Go Russia!

I wouldn't agree, but I could ALMOST buy the argument that Russia was protecting Ossestia's right to choose if the Russian military had limited itself to supporting its peacekeepers already there against the Georgia attempt to re-establish control. The fact is, Russia doesn't give a flying rat's **** about Ossestia except that it gives them a pretext to invade and depose of Georgia's democratically pro-western pro-NATO government and replace it with one more friendly to their interests.

[reevie]

I'm really not so sure that the government caught it at all. Bush's actions at the Olympics, the response and movements of Sec. Rice, and general inaction leads me to believe they were taken off-guard. I honestly do not believe our government knew that the Russians were going to invade. HOWEVER, they surely knew that Georgia was going to invade Ossestia since they're a close ally and I can't imagine them making that move without giving us a heads up.

I'll buy the surprise with the overwhelming force and the destruction of the civilian populace. But this has been brewing for a long time and should not have been a surprise.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

I have an old Sooner buddy who is a retired lawyer, living in Gayston. Here's his perspective.(I told him not to send me any more of his political analyses, but he feels compelled to anyway) Our leftist board members will like this:
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Another foreign policy disaster for our country.Notice how we're calling for diplomacy and the UN?From all I've heard and read, the leader of Georgia is a certified idiot who decided to invade his breakaway province, South Ossetia. And we helped him to do it--with a bunch of arms from us and Israel. No matter the province had a bunch of Russians in it, wants to be part of Russia. This spat has been going on since 92.Here's Russia, pissed the US is trying to put in missles in Poland, pissed we're trying to have all their former allies join Nato, pissed we're egging on this Georgian zero to thumb his nose at Russia.And here we are, the bunch who invaded Iraq based on a pack of lies, who torture folks, now whining about the evil russkies doing just what we've done. We should have stopped the Georgian dude from being such a dumbass! But nooooo! He's a democratically elected guy. They can do no wrong!The russians are undoubtedly happy they are finally getting some respect, like we were when we invaded mighty Grenada in the early 80s.And we have all our forces tied up in Iraq, where we are running around like a dog chasing it's tail. Nobody respects us, and we have no military might available.But mostly, we need guys in charge of the US who are not incompetents--and Dick Cheney and Dubya are total failures.I count the days till there's a change. Whether it's McCain or Obama, we need some smart people running our country. You don't go into a bar unarmed and pick a fight with a big mean bully, yet we let just that happen.

[soonersn20xx]

He sounds smart Rush, you should read more of his emails. ;)

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

He sounds smart Rush, you should read more of his emails. ;)I responded to him by reminding him he agreed to no more political volleys. (No matter what the situation, he ALWAYS sides against any republican)

[SoonerProphet]

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Another foreign policy disaster for our country.Notice how we're calling for diplomacy and the UN?From all I've heard and read, the leader of Georgia is a certified idiot who decided to invade his breakaway province, South Ossetia. And we helped him to do it--with a bunch of arms from us and Israel. No matter the province had a bunch of Russians in it, wants to be part of Russia. This spat has been going on since 92.Here's Russia, pissed the US is trying to put in missles in Poland, pissed we're trying to have all their former allies join Nato, pissed we're egging on this Georgian zero to thumb his nose at Russia.And here we are, the bunch who invaded Iraq based on a pack of lies,.

Pretty dead on there. Problem has been with policy since the collapse and Russia's "near abroad". Both rep and dem have bungled for pol regarding Russia. The latest was Kosovo, giving Russia the "language" and precedent to move.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

Pretty dead on there. Problem has been with policy since the collapse and Russia's "near abroad". Both rep and dem have bungled for pol regarding Russia. The latest was Kosovo, giving Russia the "language" and precedent to move.Now, y'all lefty guys and gals needn't post your analysis, since I already did it for you.

[SoonerProphet]

Lefty guys in the Clinton administration shoulder a great deal of the blame in regards to failed policy and Eurasia. Read to many Krauthammer articles.

[Blue]

This dust-up is over a section of Georgia that wants to secede from Georgia, and the Russians think that seceding section will naturally be drawn into the Russian gravitational sphere of influence.

Nothing new to see here.

That said, like the Georgians, I consider this secession stuff to be a load of crap. The Georgians should just shoot the ring-leaders in the wanna-be break away district and be done with it.

Except Russia is advancing well past those wanna-be break away districts towards the capital. Looks like a land grab to me. I bet the folks in Azerbaijan and Armenia are pissin in their shorts right about now.

[SoonerBorn68]

JCS is right. It's all about the oil and making the US weaker.

[OklahomaTuba]

It will have the reverse effect though.

Unless the surredocrats get the whitehouse. If that happens, Russia & Iran will be rolling all our allies in the region.

[OklahomaTuba]

If they did this in Jacksonville, would it still be called the worlds largest cocktail party????

[Blue]

The Worlds Largest Molotav Cocktail Party?

I got nuthin.

[Sooner5030]

Russia is doing its best to remind Europe of our importance. I just can’t see the long term benefit for them. This strengthens our position in negotiating with Europe.

We could always take all the unexploded EFPs from Iraq and transport them to the Georgians. Russia has a ****ty record on the road against insurgents. Other than that, Georgia is screwed as far as force vs force.

[olevetonahill]

This should settle them Pesky rooskies down :D
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080811/ap_on_go_pr_wh/us_russia_georgia

[CatfishSooner]

This situation underscores the need for us and other Western states to get rid of our foreign oil addiction and find some realistic renewable energy alternatives... The only reason Russia is gettin away with this is b/c they have the oil and more importantly the natural gas that the Europeans need.

[Chuck Bao]

I wouldn't agree, but I could ALMOST buy the argument that Russia was protecting Ossestia's right to choose if the Russian military had limited itself to supporting its peacekeepers already there against the Georgia attempt to re-establish control. The fact is, Russia doesn't give a flying rat's **** about Ossestia except that it gives them a pretext to invade and depose of Georgia's democratically pro-western pro-NATO government and replace it with one more friendly to their interests.


I can't agree with you either. It is about land. War is always about land. The politics and justification and all that - at the end of the day it is about land.

[Harry Beanbag]

I can't agree with you either. It is about land. War is always about land. The politics and justification and all that - at the end of the day it is about land.


No. It's about money and power just like everything else.

[tommieharris91]

I can't agree with you either. It is about land. War is always about land. The politics and justification and all that - at the end of the day it is about land.


No. It's about money and power just like everything else.

Same thing.

[RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!]

This situation underscores the need for us and other Western states to get rid of our foreign oil addiction and find some realistic renewable energy alternatives... The only reason Russia is gettin away with this is b/c they have the oil and more importantly the natural gas that the Europeans need....or, we could open up the off-limits domestic areas and other energy resources(coal, nuclear, etc.), and wean ourselves off of foreign oil. If the USA was more energy independent, lots of things would improve.

[SicEmBaylor]

I can't get into all of this now, because I have an SCV meeting at 6.

HOWEVER, later I'm going to tell you how the end of the Cold War was a very bad thing.

[Harry Beanbag]

Same thing.


No it isn't. Not necessarily anyway.

[soonerscuba]

Heh. If we elect Dems the Ruskies are going to take over the WORLD!!!!!111!!!!!

Blast from the past, nice Tuba.

[mdklatt]

...or, we could open up the off-limits domestic areas and other energy resources(coal, nuclear, etc.), and wean ourselves off of foreign oil.

Sweet, then we'll just need to figure out a way to wean ourselves off of foreign wheat.

[Chuck Bao]

Okay, I take back my previous statement. War is about who controls the land. So, that ropes in the security and ideology issues. It is still the same thing. War is about fighting over a piece of land. Let's not be idealistic about it.

[SoonerProphet]

I don't think idealism plays any role in it either. This goofy **** about Georgia being a beacon of democracy and Russia's on the path to authoritarianism is ovesimplification of the worst kind. It is power politics, Russia has finally achieved some reasonable stability after the 90's and has decided to assert itself and become the regional hegemon.

[Blue]

Looks like Russia is backing off. What was the point of all that buildup? They pretty much got all of the Black sea coast, though.

[Okla-homey]

I can't get into all of this now, because I have an SCV meeting at 6.



Are you bringing the cross? Or is it your turn to bring the sheets?

[Okla-homey]

Looks like Russia is backing off. What was the point of all that buildup? They pretty much got all of the Black sea coast, though.


But now, there is no oil or gas pipeline from Eurasia to Europe not controlled by Vladimir Putin. Let that soak in a bit.

[StoopTroup]

I can't get into all of this now, because I have an SCV meeting at 6.

HOWEVER, later I'm going to tell you how the end of the Cold War was a very bad thing.

SCV?

Sicem Comittee on Virginity?

[Mixer!]

http://img138.imageshack.us/img138/4260/spekyy6.png

[Mixer!]

But now, there is no oil or gas pipeline from Eurasia to Europe not controlled by Vladimir Putin. Let that soak in a bit.
Ding, ding, ding - we have a winner!

[Okla-homey]

SCV?

Sicem Comittee on Virginity?


Sons of Confederate Veterans. It used to be a decent outfit that focused on cemetery and battlefield preservation. Now its much more about racist demagoguery and flying big Rebel flags from 200' flagpoles near busy interstate highways to offend people whose forebears were enslaved by the people who designed the flag.

[Blue]

But now, there is no oil or gas pipeline from Eurasia to Europe not controlled by Vladimir Putin. Let that soak in a bit.


According to the map, the pipeline is still in Georgia. Russia gained the Black Sea provinces and Ossetia but the pipeline dips into Turkey before those provinces. They gained a land bridge though.

[Frozen Sooner]

But now, there is no oil or gas pipeline from Eurasia to Europe not controlled by Vladimir Putin. Let that soak in a bit.

That's OK. The President looked in his eyes and saw his soul. Putin's a good guy.

[Frozen Sooner]

Maybe the Russians will make a move on another former Soviet state soon, like Poland, who is also extremely pro-US. If it starts to spread, and you are a young man of draft age, you better get your affairs in order.

Minor point, but Poland was not a Soviet state. They were a Warsaw Pact nation (obviously, I guess) but they were not part of the USSR.

[Okla-homey]

According to the map, the pipeline is still in Georgia. Russia gained the Black Sea provinces and Ossetia but the pipeline dips into Turkey before those provinces. They gained a land bridge though.

You are presuming the Russians are going to leave Georgia at some point?

[Mixer!]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3a/Georgian_Pipelines.gif

Map of Baku-Supsa (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Supsa_Pipeline) and Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan_pipeline) pipelines through Georgia.


While Georgia has no significant oil or gas reserves on its own, it is an important transit route that supplies the West, and journalists expressed fear that the war may damage the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan) (BTC) pipeline, 30% of which is owned by BP (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BP).[93] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War#cite_note-92) The BTC pipeline was shut down before the conflict and the war created further problems for the operating company.[94] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War#cite_note-93) Georgia claims Russia is targeting the pipeline.[95] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War#cite_note-94) On 8 August (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_8) 2008, Russian air forces devastated the port of Poti (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poti), which is a key port for the transportation of energy sources, close to the Baku-Supsa pipeline and the Supsa oil terminal.[96] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War#cite_note-ft1-95) The price of oil was not negatively affected by these events, on August 8 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_8) light sweet crude (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Light_sweet_crude) for September delivery settled down $4.82 to $115.20 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_Mercantile_Exchange).[97] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_War#cite_note-96)

[soonersn20xx]

Truce over, invasion back on. - http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/georgia_russia

[StoopTroup]

Didn't the Russians and Georgians shake hands and even hug before the volleyball match?

If true...did someone grope the other team to stop the truce?

[soonerinabilene]

In a sharp response to Bush's speech, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called Georgia's leadership "a special project of the United States. And we understand that the United States is worried about its project."

Russian news agencies quoted him saying the United States would have to choose "support for a virtual project" and or "real partnership" on issues such as U.S.-Russian cooperation on Iran and other world tension spots.

For some reason this jumped out at me from the link two posts above. I read that as them saying this is just a way to get leverage when talks come up about what to do with Iran's nuclear program.

[Harry Beanbag]

It's all fun and games until the big bad bully calls your bluff and whips your ***.

[Animal Mother]

"We have no intention of killing the dead Georgian soldiers".

Russian General Vladimir Gityurroksoff