What do you think about the stock market?

[Chuck Bao]

I just released the results and commentary on my quarterly online questionnaire for Thai stock market investors.

Since Wall Street has been gyrating so wildly, I think it would be interesting to see the stock market perceptions on this board.

It would also be interesting in the context of the “class warfare salvo?” thread. Middle America does invest in the stock market, right?

I know a lot of Americans invest through professionally-managed funds and that, in my opinion, is a good thing. So if you do, just pretend that you are a fund manager of one of your funds when answering the questionnaire. Or, even if you don’t invest, it would still be interesting to see your opinion.

I’ve changed the wording on some of the questions so that it would apply to the US. The results of my Thai survey are pasted on at the bottom of this post, for those of you that may be interested.

I’ll tally up the scores here if enough people respond. Sorry this isn’t in poll form. Just copy the question and answer with A, B, C, etc.


1. How confident are you of getting a satisfactory return on your stock market investments this year?

A) Very confident
B) Slightly confident
C) Not confident at all

2. Would you categorize yourself as a “momentum investor” (following the flow of money into and out of the market) or a “value investor” (investing on long-term valuations with the view that share prices will eventually reflect the true underlying fundamentals)?

A) Momentum investor
B) Value investor
C) A bit of both
D) Not either

3. Do you occasionally buy shares for dividend yield? If so, what percentage of your investment portfolio would you consider long-term dividend yield stocks?

A) 50-100%
B) 30-50%
C) Less than 30%
D) I never buy shares for dividend yield

4. How often do you buy or sell shares per month?

A) More than 50 share transactions
B) 30-50 share transactions
C) 10-30 share transactions
D) Less than 10 transactions

5. How would you describe yourself in a risk – return profile?

A) Seek high returns and willing to bear higher risks
B) Seek a balance of risk and return with two separate stock portfolios – one for investment and one for trading
C) Prefer low risk and willing to accept a lower, but still stable return

6. Your stock purchase decisions are primarily based on which of the following: (rank in order)

A) Company information
B) Technical research
C) Fundamental research
D) News or rumours
E) Marketing officers’ recommendations
F) Own trading strategy

7. What is the biggest difficulty that you have in investing in the stock market?

A) Lack of quality investment advice
B) Lack of timely and reliable market information
C) Too time-consuming to keep up with various factors affecting share prices

8. How many years have you been investing in the stock market?

A) less than one year
B) 1-3 years
C) 4-10 years
D) more than 10 years

9. What is your biggest concern this year?

A) Economic slowdown
B) Uncertain future government policy
C) The weakening dollar and the international fund flow out of dollar assets
D) Poor corporate earnings
E) Higher oil prices and resulting inflationary pressure

10. In a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the highest score, how would you rate the government’s handling of the economy?

A) 9-10
B) 6-8
C) 3-5
D) under 3

11. How confident are you that the US is on the right track in attracting new investment?

A) Very confident
B) Slightly confident
C) Not confident at all

12.How confident are you that the economic situation will improve in 12 months?

A) Very confident
B) Slightly confident
C) Not confident at all

http://img5.ranchoweb.com/images/kanunu/stockmarketpolljun08gs.jpg

[GottaHavePride]

http://i168.photobucket.com/albums/u177/auburnny/RonPaulPancakeHead.jpg

[Ike]

So I'm curious about the numbers you show. How many people were responding to each of these polls, because unless you had about 10,000+ or so, I'd call the answers to just about every question there constant over time, with the only exceptions being the last two questions.

[Chuck Bao]

So I'm curious about the numbers you show. How many people were responding to each of these polls, because unless you had about 10,000+ or so, I'd call the answers to just about every question there constant over time, with the only exceptions being the last two questions.

Okay, that was addressed in my commentary as was the number of participants, which were:

Feb 16-Mar 2 '07 - 842
May 9-Jun 21 ' 07 - 936
Sep 7-Sep 30' 07 - 875
Jan 15-Jan 31 '08 - 1,276
May 23-Jun 6 '08 - 822

I recognize that isn't a good sample size and I also mention that the results are skewed to the tech savvy internet traders who would more likely respond to an online poll.

I recognize that my poll is not scientific, but it ist still meaningful.

I can PM you a link to my report, if you are interested.

I just think that the stock market is widely seen as a very good indicator of the performance of a government and it has way more import than just gains or losses for stock market investors. I think that is the reason I posted this.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

I think we're looking at a double dip bear. We're in the initial stage of the second dip. I predict the S&P 500 low will be about 1250 then we'll head for higher ground.

[John Kochtoston]

I'm putting everything I have into canned food and shotguns.

[Chuck Bao]

I think we're looking at a double dip bear. We're in the initial stage of the second dip. I predict the S&P 500 low will be about 1250 then we'll head for higher ground.

Based on what? An assumption of a US economic recovery in the second half of the year? Or, are you into the idea that most large US multinationals have tied their preformance to future growth in the developing markets, or are you getting this view from technical analysis?

[tommieharris91]

All I know is that the dollar is strengthening and had a great week vs the euro, and that the price of oil and the DJIA move inversely nowadays.

[SanJoaquinSooner]

Based on what? An assumption of a US economic recovery in the second half of the year? Or, are you into the idea that most large US multinationals have tied their preformance to future growth in the developing markets, or are you getting this view from technical analysis?


THe recovery may not be until 2009, but the market will anticipate it a bit early. the second dip may be a long drawn out one. If oil prices stay as high as they are now or go higher, a recession is inevitable. We may be in it now.

[Rogue]

Wouldn't you want to know more demographics about the respondents?
Age, income, annual investment, investment vehicle or process?
I have to think I throw more money in than average this year, but have waaaayyyyy less of a clue than average about WTF I'm doing.

1. How confident are you of getting a satisfactory return on your stock market investments this year?

A) Very confident
B) Slightly confident
C) Not confident at all

2. Would you categorize yourself as a “momentum investor” (following the flow of money into and out of the market) or a “value investor” (investing on long-term valuations with the view that share prices will eventually reflect the true underlying fundamentals)?

A) Momentum investor
B) Value investor
C) A bit of both
D) Not either

3. Do you occasionally buy shares for dividend yield? If so, what percentage of your investment portfolio would you consider long-term dividend yield stocks?

A) 50-100%
B) 30-50%
C) Less than 30%
D) I never buy shares for dividend yield

4. How often do you buy or sell shares per month?

A) More than 50 share transactions
B) 30-50 share transactions
C) 10-30 share transactions
D) Less than 10 transactions
E) I only have huge mutual fund type things (TSP)

5. How would you describe yourself in a risk – return profile?

A) Seek high returns and willing to bear higher risks
B) Seek a balance of risk and return with two separate stock portfolios – one for investment and one for trading
C) Prefer low risk and willing to accept a lower, but still stable return

6. Your stock purchase decisions are primarily based on which of the following: (rank in order)

A) Company information
B) Technical research
C) Fundamental research
D) News or rumours
E) Marketing officers’ recommendations
F) Own trading strategy

7. What is the biggest difficulty that you have in investing in the stock market?

A) Lack of quality investment advice
B) Lack of timely and reliable market information
C) Too time-consuming to keep up with various factors affecting share prices
D) A&C

8. How many years have you been investing in the stock market?

A) less than one year
B) 1-3 years
C) 4-10 years
D) more than 10 years

9. What is your biggest concern this year?

A) Economic slowdown
B) Uncertain future government policy
C) The weakening dollar and the international fund flow out of dollar assets
D) Poor corporate earnings
E) Higher oil prices and resulting inflationary pressure

10. In a scale of 1-10, with 10 being the highest score, how would you rate the government’s handling of the economy?

A) 9-10
B) 6-8
C) 3-5
D) under 3

11. How confident are you that the US is on the right track in attracting new investment?

A) Very confident
B) Slightly confident
C) Not confident at all

12.How confident are you that the economic situation will improve in 12 months?

A) Very confident
B) Slightly confident
C) Not confident at all

[Ike]

Okay, that was addressed in my commentary as was the number of participants, which were:

Feb 16-Mar 2 '07 - 842
May 9-Jun 21 ' 07 - 936
Sep 7-Sep 30' 07 - 875
Jan 15-Jan 31 '08 - 1,276
May 23-Jun 6 '08 - 822

I recognize that isn't a good sample size and I also mention that the results are skewed to the tech savvy internet traders who would more likely respond to an online poll.

I recognize that my poll is not scientific, but it ist still meaningful.

I can PM you a link to my report, if you are interested.

I just think that the stock market is widely seen as a very good indicator of the performance of a government and it has way more import than just gains or losses for stock market investors. I think that is the reason I posted this.
I'm not that interested...it's just that I know some people will read a whole lot into a few percent change in responses when that change isn't very significant, statistically.

[Blue]

Commodities are where its at. If int rates go up or down we're screwed. Either a tanked dollar or Hyperinflation.

Hopefully they can figure it out.

FYI, I made a C- in Finance.

[Stitch Face]

I made $16 today mowing lawns!

[Chuck Bao]

I'm not that interested...it's just that I know some people will read a whole lot into a few percent change in responses when that change isn't very significant, statistically.

Yeah, I'm mindful not to draw too much out of it. Actually I go out of my way to underplay it. I still post it because I promised that I would so the respondents can see the results and largely let the numbers speak for themselves.

I also agree that the sample size isn't large, less than 1,000. And, that would represent a very small portion of my company's 40,000 active accounts.

Many of the statistics don't change much because I think some of the online trading interweb nerd clients (I did not mean to call some of my clients nerds) are the same ones who are willing to take the time each time for online polls. Since I assume the same ones respond to it, it does give some validity to some of the answers that do change.

With all of that being said, I sometimes think we live in a world of a stock markracy where the effectiveness or popularity of a sitting government is largely judged by the performance of the stock market. This may not be the case in the US, but it is for a lot of countries in the world.

For this reason, I think these types of polls, although not scientific, are still interesting. So, I continue to do them.

And, I'm still interested in getting American's perception of the stock market, economy and politics.

[tommieharris91]

I made $16 today mowing lawns!

Tell me how much you have after you fill up your tanks.

[OU-HSV]

Tell me how much you have after you fill up your tanks.

Probably -$50.00 ;)

[Stitch Face]

Probably -$50.00 ;)

Not since I last drove the mower to Tulsa.

[OU-HSV]

Not since I last drove the mower to Tulsa.

:D

[tommieharris91]

Commodities are where its at. If int rates go up or down we're screwed. Either a tanked dollar or Hyperinflation.

Hopefully they can figure it out.

FYI, I made a C- in Finance.

Uhh, tanked money usually leads to hyperinflation when a country imports a lot of consumables (like the US).

The problem with raising interest rates is that the housing and credit markets will take a beating when rates rise. However, people will pay less at the pump because the dollar will be stronger with higher interest rates.

[Flagstaffsooner]

Time for me to load the pick, shovel, dry box and pan and head for the Bradshaw Mountains.