So the Dollar is getting weaker by the day...

[soonerhubs]

How does America get this back up? I'm tired of hearing these predictions (http://www.foxbusiness.com/story/markets/aig-oil-worries-sink-futures/)of 200 Bucks/barrel. :mad:

[OUDoc]

The refund checks will fix it. ;)

[Ash]

McDonald's dollar value menu.

[royalfan5]

Good thing Ag exports are at high levels and are pulling dollars back from the nations that send us cheap ****.

[SoonerInKCMO]

I'ma buy me some Euros at the airport next week while I can still afford some.

[soonerhubs]

Good thing Ag exports are at high levels and are pulling dollars back from the nations that send us cheap ****.

So does this mean that our Agriculture is carrying us at the moment?

[royalfan5]

So does this mean that our Agriculture is carrying us at the moment?
to an extent, along with specialized manufacturing and specialized services.

[soonerhubs]

to an extent, along with specialized manufacturing and specialized services.

Sounds like it's time for me to start a garden and get some specialized services going on.

[tommieharris91]

I'ma buy me some Euros at the airport next week while I can still afford some.

Don't. The euro is expected to weaken. Just buy barrels of oil instead.

[Chuck Bao]

I was preparing talking points for my boss who will be on two TV programs this weekend. I think I mentioned this in that "bring it on, grandpa" thread.

My main point is that the US Fed may be through cutting interest rates, but that is besides the point now. Other central banks in the world will be raising interest rates to combat inflation. Given the severity of the US housing market crisis, the US Fed can't match that. The 3-6 month outlook for the dollar doesn't look good.

[tommieharris91]

I was preparing talking points for my boss who will be on two TV programs this weekend. I think I mentioned this in that "bring it on, grandpa" thread.

My main point is that the US Fed may be through cutting interest rates, but that is besides the point now. Other central banks in the world will be raising interest rates to combat inflation. Given the severity of the US housing market crisis, the US Fed can't match that. The 3-6 month outlook for the dollar doesn't look good.

It would stall just about every country in the euro zone if the ECB raised interest rates. If they sit back much longer there will be a recession in the entire euro zone. More than a few economists say the worst is over despite the rapid rise in oil prices (not what I think on this). But, I think the Fed needs to start raising interest rates sometime soon, and I would bet on a rate hike in October.

[Chuck Bao]

It would stall just about every country in the euro zone if the ECB raised interest rates. If they sit back much longer there will be a recession in the entire euro zone. More than a few economists say the worst is over despite the rapid rise in oil prices (not what I think on this). But, I think the Fed needs to start raising interest rates sometime soon, and I would bet on a rate hike in October.

Good points, tommieharris. I was thinking more about Asia than Europe. I've just raised my GDP growth forecast for Thailand to 6% and first quarter should come in well above that.

Heh! I always forget about Europe.

And umm...I don't see the Fed raising interest rates with possibly several quarters of negative economic growth and not right before an election. Okay, we can agree to disagree and that's cool. ;)

[bluedogok]

If the Fed would quit printing money like they are Chinese trinkets to sell at Wal-Mart and the dollar stores it might be a start.

[CORNholio]

Back it with gold again.

[JohnnyMack]

Few noticed that Iran started trading for oil exclusively in euros a while back. You can read about that here:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/04/30/business/main4057490.shtml

They're trading in euros now. If the dollar continues to weaken and more OPEC countries shift away from the dollar look out.

Also late last year China signed this deal:

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Iran_China_finalise_two_billion_dollar_oil_contrac t_999.html

with Iran.

This whole argument goes well with :dolemite:s thread from a few days back about America's role as a "super power" in the coming century.

[Blue]

I thought Iran did that like two years ago. News just picked it up. Tail wagging the dog or something like that.

Oil won't stop till they get it where they want it, 200+. All the rest is BS. Every night on the scroll.....Oil hits new record. Oil hits new record because of Increasing demand from India and China and war in so and so. Speculation...blah blah blah. Who are they trying to convince? Themselves?

So India and China all the sudden started ordering enough oil to jack up the price daily? I don't think so.

Makes me think supplies are diminishing. Check out some of the websites where paranoid and rich folk stock up on hydrated food and mre's. It's gone. The govt. bought it all.

[tommieharris91]

Back it with gold again.

Ohh please no.

[Vaevictis]

Back it with gold again.

Before you start agitating for a return to the gold standard, please read this:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/200403022/default.htm

If you don't want to read the whole thing, here's the cliff notes:


Gold standard forces fixed exchange rates
Fixed exchange rates result in every little economic instability in one country on the standard to be exported to every other country adhering to the fixed rate.
The longer a country remained on the gold standard during the Great Depression, the longer it took for it to recover.


In short, the gold standard ain't all happiness and roses, and there's a reason why it was abandoned. It basically forces vastly different economies to adopt identical monetary policies.

You're basically advocating a single world currency. I don't think that's really what you want, is it?

[OUTromBoNado]

I think everyone needs to wake up and realize that we're pretty much past our prime, economically. The economic-monster called "Asia" (specifically, the growth of China) is taking care of that.

And if you want to point fingers for blame, point them at all of our awesome companies here in the good ol' US of A for outsourcing most of our blue collar jobs to said continent.

[Vaevictis]

If the Fed would quit printing money like they are Chinese trinkets to sell at Wal-Mart and the dollar stores it might be a start.

The fed is far more worried about credit markets locking up than they are worried about inflation. They call him "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke for a reason.

And here's the thing: He's right. Inflation is bad, but as long as you keep it reasonable (and it is reasonable right now), it beats the hell out of deflation or locked up credit markets.

[Blue]

One world currency is inevitable. And that's not just the "Revelation" in me talking.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Inflation is quite high here in Qatar - about 20% unofficially. That is mostly due to the Dollar peg, but they have major construction going on here and a big strain of resources. The good news for the Qatari's is that gas is still only about $0.75 a gallon. The U.S. expates here are getting beat as their salary isn't keeping up.

'Hubler, in addition to the weak dollar, you can thank the ramped up economies of China and India and Xiang's and Ramesh's desire to own a car for the first time in their lives and the fact that they are doing a "whole lot of consumering around here...".

I'm with Chuck, I don't see any pressure relief on gas/oil anytime soon. We need new finds and new oil into the system and fast. Not likely to come. Thank Congress for preventing drilling/exploration in ANWR and off the FL and CA coasts. That along with the Venezuelan cut off and the Nigerian strikes/pipeline bombings have had significant impact on bringing oil to market.

[Blue]

'Hubler, in addition to the weak dollar, you can thank the ramped up economies of China and India and Xiang's and Ramesh's desire to own a car for the first time in their lives and the fact that they are doing a "whole lot of consumering around here...".



How does this "all the sudden" raise the price DAILY? That should take years. They just realized it? BS. This is calculated and pre-meditated and we're being conditioned to accept it.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Blue - you have got to be kidding! You want to blame someone, blame the traders and speculators. Their the one amping up the price. Ask any oil exec, today's TRUE price of oil is around 60-80 dollars a barrel. The rest is speculation and fear of abdul farting...

No one anticipated the speed at which the Indian and Chinese economies became so heated. They became purchasers extremely quickly, more quickly than the western economies ever did.

[Ash]

Inflation is quite high here in Qatar - about 20% unofficially. That is mostly due to the Dollar peg, but they have major construction going on here and a big strain of resources. The good news for the Qatari's is that gas is still only about $0.75 a gallon. The U.S. expates here are getting beat as their salary isn't keeping up.

'Hubler, in addition to the weak dollar, you can thank the ramped up economies of China and India and Xiang's and Ramesh's desire to own a car for the first time in their lives and the fact that they are doing a "whole lot of consumering around here...".

I'm with Chuck, I don't see any pressure relief on gas/oil anytime soon. We need new finds and new oil into the system and fast. Not likely to come. Thank Congress for preventing drilling/exploration in ANWR and off the FL and CA coasts. That along with the Venezuelan cut off and the Nigerian strikes/pipeline bombings have had significant impact on bringing oil to market.

The oil from ANWR would be a drop in the bucket. Straw man.

How much is off the Florida and California coasts? Is it worth the repurcussions?

[TheHumanAlphabet]

What repercussions do you speak of? FL has significant oil offshore, in fact Cuba will probably start tapping into the reserves, they are looking to China to drill in their offshore area. No diffent than the current offshore platforms in CA and Louisiana and Texas. ANWR is not a drop in the bucket - that is a liberal NIMBY arguement. There is SIGNIFICANT oil and mostly gas reserves that are currently orphaned. In fact, the Canadian arctic region has significant gas and gas condensate reserves that are currently orphaned.

[Ash]

What repercussions do you speak of? FL has significant oil offshore, in fact Cuba will probably start tapping into the reserves, they are looking to China to drill in their offshore area. No diffent than the current offshore platforms in CA and Louisiana and Texas. ANWR is not a drop in the bucket - that is a liberal NIMBY arguement. There is SIGNIFICANT oil and mostly gas reserves that are currently orphaned. In fact, the Canadian arctic region has significant gas and gas condensate reserves that are currently orphaned.

Oil operations are always going to affect the area in some way. I wasn't implying anything. Is there enough off FL and CA to make it worth it.

My comment about ANWR isn't based on liberal anything, it is based on the reports of petroleum geologists that I've read.

[tommieharris91]

The oil from ANWR would be a drop in the bucket. Straw man.

How much is off the Florida and California coasts? Is it worth the repurcussions?

I've heard a few oil execs estimate the oil in ANWR is somewhere around 2 trillion barrels. That would probably drive the price down to $1.50 a gallon of gas for at least 10 years. Sadly, the field wouldn't be operational until 2012 if it was opened today.

[OUDoc]

I don't care who's fault it is, we're getting screwed.
Now, how do we fix it?

[XingTheRubicon]

What repercussions do you speak of? FL has significant oil offshore, in fact Cuba will probably start tapping into the reserves, they are looking to China to drill in their offshore area. No diffent than the current offshore platforms in CA and Louisiana and Texas. ANWR is not a drop in the bucket - that is a liberal NIMBY arguement. There is SIGNIFICANT oil and mostly gas reserves that are currently orphaned. In fact, the Canadian arctic region has significant gas and gas condensate reserves that are currently orphaned.

ANWR has oil reserves that would supply the US for 8 months by the time it was extracted (15 months at today's usage) and it would take 10-15 years to extract. So yes, it is a complete and total drop in the bucket. US oil production has been declining since the '70s and ANWR won't do a thing to change that.

[jkjsooner]

I think everyone needs to wake up and realize that we're pretty much past our prime, economically. The economic-monster called "Asia" (specifically, the growth of China) is taking care of that.

And if you want to point fingers for blame, point them at all of our awesome companies here in the good ol' US of A for outsourcing most of our blue collar jobs to said continent.

Agree and disagree. Outsourcing is just a race to the bottom. India/China will always be a force and the short-term gain US and Europe corporations achieved through outsourcing will in the long run reduce their own economic influence.

On the other hand, India and Chine benefit from such a low cost of doing business. That is disappearing (especially in India) and neither will seamlessly make the change from a low budget producer to a superpower without problems. India is already losing jobs to cheaper countries...

My problem with India is that we've been sold the line that their all super intelligent, productive, and superior to the American worker. I've run into too many Indians who for cultural reasons became engineers who really were not made for it. (On the other hand, there are brilliant people who graduated from IIT.)

Anyway, an economy based on the lowest price does not make a superior economy.

[85Sooner]

I think everyone needs to wake up and realize that we're pretty much past our prime, economically. The economic-monster called "Asia" (specifically, the growth of China) is taking care of that.

And if you want to point fingers for blame, point them at all of our awesome companies here in the good ol' US of A for outsourcing most of our blue collar jobs to said continent.


Quit taxing the bejesus out of them and stop the unions from forcing them to pay inflated wages and they may think about staying here. Corporations aer there to make money for its owners (stocka nd mutual fund owners) who want to make Money however and where ever it can. the more that the Gov takes the less the stockholder gets so.................................

[jkjsooner]

The conspiracist in me thinks that as we started looking at alternative energy in the '70s the oil exporters felt threatened. Knowing it takes decades to achieve alternative energy goals, OPEC increased oil production in the '80s to distract us, keeping us tied to their products. We lost our focus and OPEC won.

[85Sooner]

ANWR has oil reserves that would supply the US for 8 months by the time it was extracted (15 months at today's usage) and it would take 10-15 years to extract. So yes, it is a complete and total drop in the bucket. US oil production has been declining since the '70s and ANWR won't do a thing to change that.



Where did you get that info. That is info I have heard from the greenies. The professionals I have heard speak sound more like the estimates Tommieharris gave. There is no oil shortage there is just a large attack by the greenies (ex communists and socialists from the 60's) who have gotten into the pockets of congress and prevented us from drilling and refining our own product. All the while our competitors are drilling off our shores.

[jkjsooner]

Blue - you have got to be kidding! You want to blame someone, blame the traders and speculators. Their the one amping up the price. Ask any oil exec, today's TRUE price of oil is around 60-80 dollars a barrel. The rest is speculation and fear of abdul farting...

No one anticipated the speed at which the Indian and Chinese economies became so heated. They became purchasers extremely quickly, more quickly than the western economies ever did.
Serious question... I don't understand how oil (or pigs or corn) speculation works. These are all commodities that must be used after purchasing. You can store some of each of these but its costly and you can only store a certain amount.

Gold/land/houses can be bought and held for speculative purposes. I understand that. But I don't understand how a commodity that is bought and used (in a steady state) can be speculative especially for a long period of time.

[r5TPsooner]

Coal to fuel technology
Drill the **** out of ANWAR
Drill the coast of California
Drill the coast of Florida
Quit worrying about global warming because it's a ****ing joke!!!

[jkjsooner]

Serious question... I don't understand how oil (or pigs or corn) speculation works. These are all commodities that must be used after purchasing. You can store some of each of these but its costly and you can only store a certain amount.

Gold/land/houses can be bought and held for speculative purposes. I understand that. But I don't understand how a commodity that is bought and used (in a steady state) can be speculative especially for a long period of time.

To make my point more clear, let's use the housing bubble as an example.

People bought multiple houses for speculative reasons. This artifically increased the demand. You can't really buy 2 or 3 times the oil that you need unless you have a darn big tank to store it in. You pretty much buy what you need....

An expectation of ever increasing house prices led people to pay much more than they normally would or could ever really afford. With oil, unless you're holding and reselling there is no analogy. I would guess the cost of holding makes this pretty impractical.

The idea that it was a no-lose proposition led many to extend credit way beyond reasonable levels. This artificially increased the demand. Since oil is consumed I can't see how a creditor to an oil consumer could ever look at it as a no-risk proposition.

[XingTheRubicon]

Where did you get that info. That is info I have heard from the greenies. The professionals I have heard speak sound more like the estimates Tommieharris gave. There is no oil shortage there is just a large attack by the greenies (ex communists and socialists from the 60's) who have gotten into the pockets of congress and prevented us from drilling and refining our own product. All the while our competitors are drilling off our shores.


Drilling starts for 2006-2007 were up 400+ percent from 2002-2003 worldwide. In 2003, the world used 76 million bbls of oil per day. Worldwide use today is just under 87 million bbls of oil per day. Nobody thinks production will ever reach 90 million with all of the major Ghawar's of the world depleting.

Get a calculator.

[r5TPsooner]

ANWR has oil reserves that would supply the US for 8 months by the time it was extracted (15 months at today's usage) and it would take 10-15 years to extract. So yes, it is a complete and total drop in the bucket. US oil production has been declining since the '70s and ANWR won't do a thing to change that.


Your information is flawed because the amount of economically recoverable oil reserves in the ANWR, even if the numbers pan out exactly as estimated by the USGS, is dependent on the market price of crude.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

The conspiracist in me thinks that as we started looking at alternative energy in the '70s the oil exporters felt threatened. Knowing it takes decades to achieve alternative energy goals, OPEC increased oil production in the '80s to distract us, keeping us tied to their products. We lost our focus and OPEC won.

I would agree with you there...The government's job here would have been to foster a long term view and provide incentives to support long term research for a different fuel. OPEC saw that coming and manipulated the taps to reduce price and distract us. Shortsightedness on all sides.

Today, there is no slack in oil. Every bit ppumped is being consumed. Except for Iran, which for some reason is bunkering oil in VLCCs and either docking them in Iran or having them steam in the Gulf for the next few months. Not sure what that's about...

[Blue]

I had my tinfoil hat on last night, but I just don't see oil ever going back down. It doesn't really affect me directly. I mean it sucks, but just save in other areas. I'm worriedabout Transportation and prices of everything going up.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

ANWR has oil reserves that would supply the US for 8 months by the time it was extracted (15 months at today's usage) and it would take 10-15 years to extract. So yes, it is a complete and total drop in the bucket. US oil production has been declining since the '70s and ANWR won't do a thing to change that.

Well, I don't know about your numbers, I am not privy to the reservoir information and all. But I do know that there is significant gas and gas condensate up there, AK and Canadian arctic that is currently orphaned. I don't know about the time frame, but I have been working on some projects that went from FEED to construction completion in about 36-48 months. I don't know how much time before that was spent on regulatory approvals and permissions, etc. But if the will is there, I bet you could have something on line in say 6-8 years or sooner.

Two areas I am aware of have significant concerns technologically, but solvable. The biggest issue is that they are orphaned with no way to get the product to market. Pipelines in AK and Canada has been proposed. The first to build and complete will have the upper hand to connect to these orphaned resources. Or if global warming takes over, you could build an LNG plant, cryo the stuff and ship it via the "new" open water ports that would be available.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Serious question... I don't understand how oil (or pigs or corn) speculation works. These are all commodities that must be used after purchasing. You can store some of each of these but its costly and you can only store a certain amount.

I think that Warren Buffet has an idea here (at least I think it was he who said this). He says the best way to hold down oil prices is to require the traders to take actual physical custody of the product before they can sell it. The problem today, is that people are only moving paper around, no one actually holds a thing of value. The other area you mentioned, people have actual physical custody of the item they are selling. The housing problem basically went to crap mostly from people flipping or trying to flip houses - a paper exercise. They didn't really plan to hold them. Most people hold on to gold, homes, etc. So the value traded is probably a "real" value. Oil of some other commodities, as well as mortgage notes became a paper trade and no one had any "real" posession of anything.

I wonder what the oil and gas commodity market would look like if the traders actually had to buy and store the product before they could sell it. I would think it would be less volatile. Though I don't know.

[TheHumanAlphabet]

Coal to fuel technology - yep Syngas is good...
Drill the **** out of ANWAR
Drill the coast of California - screw the tree huggers and the Hollywood movie stars that don't want to platforms off the coast...
Drill the coast of Florida - would help.
Quit worrying about global warming because it's a ****ing joke!!! Big Yep!!

see inserts...

[OUTromBoNado]

Quit taxing the bejesus out of them and stop the unions from forcing them to pay inflated wages and they may think about staying here. Corporations aer there to make money for its owners (stocka nd mutual fund owners) who want to make Money however and where ever it can. the more that the Gov takes the less the stockholder gets so.................................

Taxing (or not taxing) the corporations won't change a thing. A business survives by making a profit. The best way to make a profit is to reduce costs. Why do these companies need to pay American workers $5.85/hr plus benefits, and have to put up with lazy workers who complain, when they can just go overseas, pay some 13-year old kid $5/day and not benefits, who probably won't complain?

[jkjsooner]

Taxing (or not taxing) the corporations won't change a thing. A business survives by making a profit. The best way to make a profit is to reduce costs. Why do these companies need to pay American workers $5.85/hr plus benefits, and have to put up with lazy workers who complain, when they can just go overseas, pay some 13-year old kid $5/day and not benefits, who probably won't complain?

The problem is that that $5 a day in many cases provides a much higher standard of living than the $5.85 per hour US worker has.

Seeing that you have a meteorology degree (as does my brother), do you see any reason we can't offshore our meteorology work - other than the political consequences of doing so?

What do you think about Ramesh working for $8000 per year as a US forecaster and being rich enough to hire a personal house cleaner and driver? I doubt Ramesh will complain either and I know you can't live here off of that salary.

Also keep in mind that Ramesh paid $10 for those Meteorology textbooks that you paid $120 for. And he also doesn't pay R&D costs for the medecines that he has to take.

I know some would say that it's a national security issue being that we can't lose control of our forecasting abilities nor can we lose the talent we have in those areas. Well, we've already done much of the same with our engineering work and we can't get kids to go into engineering now because they see no future in it. Nobody seems to care as long as our corporations make a profit.

[soonerhubs]

Screw it all. I just got hooked on horseback riding this weekend when we were visiting Mom and Dad in Gore. I'll get a horse, raise some crops, and have a ranch. The rest of the world economy can suck it. :D

[OUTromBoNado]

Seeing that you have a meteorology degree (as does my brother), do you see any reason we can't offshore our meteorology work - other than the political consequences of doing so?

Seeing that you have a meteorology degree (as does my brother), do you see any reason we can't offshore our meteorology work - other than the political consequences of doing so?

What do you think about Ramesh working for $8000 per year as a US forecaster and being rich enough to hire a personal house cleaner and driver? I doubt Ramesh will complain either and I know you can't live here off of that salary.

Also keep in mind that Ramesh paid $10 for those Meteorology textbooks that you paid $120 for. And he also doesn't pay R&D costs for the medecines that he has to take.

I know some would say that it's a national security issue being that we can't lose control of our forecasting abilities nor can we lose the talent we have in those areas. Well, we've already done much of the same with our engineering work and we can't get kids to go into engineering now because they see no future in it. Nobody seems to care as long as our corporations make a profit.

Let me know when some private company comes up with (and the ability to maintain) their own radar, surface observation, satellite, buoy, computer modeling, upper-air obs, etc., etc. network that covers an entire continent and most of the world's oceans.

Not trying to come at you, so sorry if it seems like it. But, offshoring meteorology and offshoring manufacturing and Dell computer support are totally different.

But, yes, I would still be against it. My biggest complaint about offshoring jobs is that American companies are taking perfectly good jobs away from Americans and shipping them elsewhere to make more money.

That's nice thAT Ramesh will get to have such a high standard of living. That's nice that it will give him more than it would give him here. Fine and dandy. But, it's taking away from America and hurting me. So, survival of the fittest.

Just because an American corporation is making record profits does not make it good for America. Case in point, the oil industry.

But, I'm with you there. Once the corporations tank, then the big wigs will crap their pants. "WE CAN'T FIND ANYONE TO HIRE AT HOME BECAUSE WE DROVE THEM ALL AWAY! NOW WE CAN'T OPERATE! OMG WE'RE IN R BANKZ...HAVING NO MONIES!"