The Official Will Blake Griffin Stay or Go Thread

[OUSKINS]

Well, it's officially the off-season, and now that Capel has been locked up, there is really only one question to be answered headed into next year.....Is Blake coming back?

Figured I'd start a thread to address the situation.

Here are my thoughts. I am listing all of the reasons a college freshmen would go to the NBA, followed by an analysis of how Blake fits in to each. In the end, I'll give a conclusion.

1. Desperate Need for Money: Many players who leave early do so in part because they have a dire financial/family situation. Waiting a year or more to cash in is a year or more too long.

I obviously don't know the Griffin family's financial situation, but from everything I can gather, there doesn't seem to be a pressing need for Blake to turn pro in order to help his family.

2. Your game is ready for the NBA and won't benefit from more time in college: Michael Beasley probably won't improve much by staying in school. His game is already pretty polished. Durant was a similar case. And guy's like Lebron were just so advanced that college wouldn't have done much for them.

While there is no doubt that Blake is already an intruiging pro prospect, his game could certainly still use some refining. Let's face it, he basically NEVER takes a shot outside of the paint. In college, he probably won't have to, but I do think it would be an obvious benefit for him on the next level to develop a tad of an outside game, or at least some more signature post moves.

3. Fear than an injury in college could derail his pro career: This one gets thrown around a lot, but it basically never happens. "Career-ending" injuries are very rare in basketball. I racked my brain trying to think of a high-level prospect who stayed in school, got hurt, and never made it in the pros-- I couldn't think of one. This is a fallacy, really.

Even if Blake tore his ACL in the 1st game of the season, he'd still be an NBA lottery pick. In his case, playing a full year may even HELP him with NBA teams who may be fearful that he is "injury prone" after his freshmen year.


4. Fear that a poor season performance-wise will hurt draft status: This is what happened to Ryan Minor. He was highly touted after his junior year, then had a so-so senior season that turned off many NBA teams. Again, there aren't many cases in history where this applies, but it is possible.

It's a risk I suppose. If Blake and his "people" aren't confident that he'll play at a high level as a sophomore, then this could be a real sticking point. If they feel he did as well as he could ever do in college, then this situation may apply. I don't think that's the case at all though. I have a VERY hard time seeing Blake taking a step back as a player next year.

5. Unable to improve draft status by returning: A player doesn't stand much of a chance of moving up in the draft if they return.

Very strong draft this year. Blake is clearly behind Beasley, and most projections have him in the 6-10 range if he were to come out this season. It seems very likely that he could improve that status next year-- especially if NBA teams see a more seasoned college sophomore.

6. Player is unhappy/ready to turn pro: This is a personal one. If a player does not enjoy college, etc. then they might as well turn pro if they are going to be picked in the lottery. If they don't really have the desire to play college ball anymore and/or if they are in a rush to be a true "adult" then it's time to go to the NBA.

Again, I don't know Blake or his family. But from everything I can gather, Blake very much enjoys playing with Taylor and being around his family/playing college basketball. I also have heard Blake mention Willie Warren on more than one occasion. It would make sense that Blake would like to play with Taylor during Taylor's senior year AND have a shot to accomplish some good things with WW in the fold.

Conclusion:

Taking off my crimson colored goggles and eliminating all fandom from the equation, I would STILL reccommend that Blake Griffin return to college next year.

I don't think he really meets ANY of the 6 criteria listed above. It's basically a "pro and con" list and it's pretty much a clean sweep.

I think he would be making a mistake by turning pro right now. I fear that he would be viewed soley as a "banger" and that whoever drafted him may not take the time to help him develop-- and he may be pigeon-holed into a certain role for the beginning of his career.

Someone please print this out and present it to coach Capel for the next "sitdown" meeting with the Griffins. :)

[Vegas Sooner]

..... needs to work on freebees

[crawfish]

I think he stays.

[poke4christ]

I totally agree that he should probably stay from a improvement standpoint, but he is predicted to be in the lottery. That is big and even for a player as talented as griffin it's hard to maintain that. Opinions on drafts sway like the wind. There are plenty of previous examples to go off of for that. There's just no guarantee he'll go much higher. There are always new hotshot guys. With the way the draft works going now is probably the best bet for the money. Whether he does that or not depends on the individual. Does enjoying college mean more than the immediate cash? We'll see, but most of the time money wins out, and that's not saying anything bad about the player. It's what most people would do and if he stays I think it means something special.

Good analysis OUSkins

[Sooner24]

If he leaves I would be surprised. Too many rough edges.

[the_ouskull]

He stays. His game is nice, and will only get nicer... however, if he stays, then he's going to be a very heralded player going into next season, on a team that, because of him, the whole "brother angle," Capel's extention, and the addition of a McDonald's AA in Willie Warren, will be receiving a lot of preseason hype. Hype helps draft status's's. So does playing with other good players who understand the game. Especially when their skills complement your own. (ie - a point guard who can penetrate and dish instead of jack it up from the logo - Austin Johnson, I'm talking to you)

He stays. No question in my mind. I'm stoked about it, too.

the_ouskull

[Big Red Ron]

No chance he goes. My Dad told me so. ;)

[adoniijahsooner]

Hell Return in a really good way.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I feel the same way that I did in the Jeff Capel to S Carolina thread. I don't see Blake going pro this year and honestly I'm not even concerned about it. Now after next year barring serious injury I think he is gone.

With Blake & Warren next year I wouldn't be shocked if we are still playing in the tourney this time next year.

[Soonerus]

Nothing but my gut....says he stays...

[badger]

If he didn't have injury problems this past year, he would be a shoo-in to stay. If I were him, I would be worried about how long his knees would hold up. Obviously, as a Sooner fan I want him to stay for the team. However, the NBA isn't something that happens to every college star. He probably should go - sorry, but those knees won't hold up forever.

[Soonerus]

You know with his brother still at OU he is likely to stay, that could cause far-reaching family issues if he leaves..

[badger]

You know with his brother still at OU he is likely to stay, that could cause far-reaching family issues if he leaves..

his brother has said in interviews that when it comes to being a teammate or a brother, brother comes first, so he wants what's best for Blake, not what's best for Taylor himself or for OU.

as such, he said he's leaning toward telling Blake to go pro because of recent injury problems

[okienole3]

He's like Abe Lincoln.......history.


Blake, thanks for a great year getting Oklahoma basketball back on the map. Good luck with the big boys.

[Big Red Ron]

He's like Abe Lincoln.......history.


Blake, thanks for a great year getting Oklahoma basketball back on the map. Good luck with the big boys.yawn

[mizzOUstu702]

His game will also improve with some guard play--aka, a little Double-Dub, Willie Warren. Someone to feed him, and to take the pressure off the post.

[OUSKINS]

Stanford's Lopez twins are headed to the NBA. IMO, this probably bodes well for OU. I would say Brook for sure would go ahead of Blake at this point. Every college player that turns pro this year has the potential to push Blake back in the draft, making it more likely he'd choose to return.

I think 5th or 6th is the ABSOLUTE best case for Blake this year, and 8th-10th is probably more realistic. Next year, he could very well be top 3.

[soonerfan28]

He stays. His game is nice, and will only get nicer... however, if he stays, then he's going to be a very heralded player going into next season, on a team that, because of him, the whole "brother angle," Capel's extention, and the addition of a McDonald's AA in Willie Warren, will be receiving a lot of preseason hype. Hype helps draft status's's. So does playing with other good players who understand the game. Especially when their skills complement your own. (ie - a point guard who can penetrate and dish instead of jack it up from the logo - Austin Johnson, I'm talking to you)

He stays. No question in my mind. I'm stoked about it, too.

the_ouskull
I would have to agree completely and I think he also needs to develop a 15 ft jump shot.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I would have to agree completely and I think he also needs to develop a 15 ft jump shot.

Probably would help his stock to be able to step out and hit the occaisional 3. Look how much Kevin Love's stock has improved. As good as his handles are for his size he can continue to work on that as well.

I'm not saying it is a mistake if Blake were to go pro. I'm just saying I don't see it happening. Taylor is at OU for one more year, Warren is coming in and I don't see how staying one more year is going to do anything bad to his draft stock.

[r5TPsooner]

This needs to be a poll, plus I need the vcash! :)

[kbsooner21]

I'd say we see him in LNC one more year. Hopefully he'll be able to step out and knock down some jumpers so the defenses can't pack the lane.

[r5TPsooner]

He needs another year t=due to me wanting see OU basketball be back where it should be, and for him to actually be a somebody when he does go to the NBA.

With that said... if someone offered me a couple of million dollars I'd be taking it in a hearbeat.

[shaun4411]

he has too much to gain from staying another year to leave. money is one thing. but he isnt struggling. the prospect of making money this year is overshadowed by the idea that he would make even more if he goes in as a more polished rookie next year. plus, he'll get to play against beasley in the freshman vs sophmores game.

im going to digress a bit and say that this is probably going to be the best draft class since 2003. potential wise at least (hansbrough, love, beasley, rose, griffin), and maybe even better.

wow, that'd be a good team. i wish the ncaa had a post season all star game. like two all america teams playing eachother. or west vs east south vs north. all b12 vs all pac10

[OUSKINS]

Love and Collison are NBA bound, and I am sure Rose will announce soon as well. Blake keeps getting knocked down a few slots, which only increases the chances he will return.

[tommieharris91]

Per Rivals, Blake Griffin will be holding a press conference today at 1:00 CDT. I don't know what his decision is.

[Frozen Sooner]

That worries me. You don't typically hold a press conference to say "Yeah, I'm staying."

[OUSKINS]

That worries me. You don't typically hold a press conference to say "Yeah, I'm staying."

I'm not so sure. Thesedays, most guys kind of quietly enter the draft without much hoopla. I think they know everyone at the school will be disappointed, and they don't want to make much of a scene. An announcement to stay, on the other hand, would certainly please folks at the LNC today.

Having said all that, I obviously have no clue. Hoping for the best....because I REALLY believe that even beyond my own selfish fandom kicking in, going back to school will be best for Blake's future as a pro. Guess we'll find out in less than 2 hours.

Anyone carrying it online?

[Mudskipper]

you can listen to the sports animal online at www.sportsanimaltulsa.com They might broadcast it...they were talking about it earlier

The other online streaming broadcast that I know about is www.1430thebuzz.com
I don't know if they will broadcast it instead of the Jim Rome Show or not.....

[Newbomb Turk]

The Sports Animal is going to cover it.

[Civicus_Sooner]

you can listen to the sports animal online at www.sportsanimaltulsa.com They might broadcast it...they were talking about it earlier

The other online streaming broadcast that I know about is www.1430thebuzz.com
I don't know if they will broadcast it instead of the Jim Rome Show or not.....

That sports animal is a really bad knock off of a marinally good sports talk station. ;)

Try this one... http://www.thesportsanimal.com/

[sooner518]

live video coverage: http://www.soonersports.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/040908aab.html

you have to be on IE.

[Mudskipper]

That sports animal is a really bad knock off of a marinally good sports talk station. ;)

Are you saying those guys are marinated?:eek:

[Mudskipper]

live video coverage: http://www.soonersports.com/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/040908aab.html

you have to be on IE.

much better....thanks!

[sooner518]

much better....thanks!

lol. For the past 10 minutes, Ive been hearing a really annoying high pitched hum. I thought it was coming from outside and it was driving me crazy. I finally figured out that it was a hum from the microphones on this press conference becuase it hasnt started yet.

I guess thats what I get for watching this while "working" :D

[Mudskipper]

I did the same thing.....searching all over my office to figure out what was making the noise!

[Civicus_Sooner]

He's staying!

[badger]

Not working here. Please somebody keep the rest of us mute buttons informed. Thanks! :)

[Mudskipper]

I didn't like the way he started out....right before he said he was coming back he really had me thinking he was going....

[badger]

Details anyone? Tons of green spek to disperse to those with more information!

[Mudskipper]

Blake is staying......started his press conference off really somber like he was going to say he was leaving, but then said he was staying.....Said that he was wanting to stay because the team has a good chance of being really good next year and he wants to work on himself.....he was glad that Capel is coming back.....alot of the things that had been talked about on here.....bottom line......Blake Griffin will be wearing Crimson next year......

[sooner518]

Details anyone? Tons of green spek to disperse to those with more information!

pretty boilerplate stuff. Blake probably talked for about 30 seconds (rather somberly I might add) before saying he was coming back for his soph year.

Capel talked alot about just being there for information for Blake and not trying to sway him one way or the other and that either way, he would have been happy for him. Media asked for Capel's prognosis now that Blake is coming and with a "great recruiting class coming in". Capel said the class is not great, they have an opportunity to be great, but they haven't really done anything yet, but he's excited for the people coming in and the people returning.

Blake talked some about how he was excited to play with Taylor his senior year, but the main factor was whether or not he felt he was ready for the NBA. Basically said he feels he needs to work on his outside shot some and also on being a leader for the team.

Not a whole lot else. It was only 10-15 minutes long

[Mudskipper]

He said he and Coach Capel had started talking about the decision on Wednesday after they got back from Birmingham....pretty much made the decision over the weekend and on Monday talking to his family and then talked to Capel on Wednesday (when he got back from the final four)

[badger]

Well if nobody else will say it... YAY!!!!!

[Civicus_Sooner]

The sport's aninimal sent one of their lackeys to ask questions, so not much follow up worth anything. One was, "Is it safe to say that Blake turned down an opportunity to be a lottery pick to stay at OU?" Capel was like, "Sure."

[Civicus_Sooner]

Marcus Walker ran a 4.4

Wrong thread

[Frozen Sooner]

*boogie*

[Boomer.....]

Good for him! We should be great next season.

[NormanPride]

I would say as of now my minimum expectation would be a shot at the Sweet 16. I realize that's a lot to do with matchups, but with the way our team could be next year, I think Sweet 16 is a realistic goal.

[Big Red Ron]

I would say as of now my minimum expectation would be a shot at the Sweet 16. I realize that's a lot to do with matchups, but with the way our team could be next year, I think Sweet 16 is a realistic goal.
I think realistically we could expect more. Heck we were one game away from the sweet 16 this year, with average guards. Between Warren and the UCLA Transfer, we have a deep and solid contender for Big XII supremacy next year.

[Ash]

Getting to the Sweet 16 is tougher than you guys make it sound. It would be a good goal for next year's team. But it's not a given.