OUSKINS
3/29/2008, 08:35 AM
Well, it's officially the off-season, and now that Capel has been locked up, there is really only one question to be answered headed into next year.....Is Blake coming back?
Figured I'd start a thread to address the situation.
Here are my thoughts. I am listing all of the reasons a college freshmen would go to the NBA, followed by an analysis of how Blake fits in to each. In the end, I'll give a conclusion.
1. Desperate Need for Money: Many players who leave early do so in part because they have a dire financial/family situation. Waiting a year or more to cash in is a year or more too long.
I obviously don't know the Griffin family's financial situation, but from everything I can gather, there doesn't seem to be a pressing need for Blake to turn pro in order to help his family.
2. Your game is ready for the NBA and won't benefit from more time in college: Michael Beasley probably won't improve much by staying in school. His game is already pretty polished. Durant was a similar case. And guy's like Lebron were just so advanced that college wouldn't have done much for them.
While there is no doubt that Blake is already an intruiging pro prospect, his game could certainly still use some refining. Let's face it, he basically NEVER takes a shot outside of the paint. In college, he probably won't have to, but I do think it would be an obvious benefit for him on the next level to develop a tad of an outside game, or at least some more signature post moves.
3. Fear than an injury in college could derail his pro career: This one gets thrown around a lot, but it basically never happens. "Career-ending" injuries are very rare in basketball. I racked my brain trying to think of a high-level prospect who stayed in school, got hurt, and never made it in the pros-- I couldn't think of one. This is a fallacy, really.
Even if Blake tore his ACL in the 1st game of the season, he'd still be an NBA lottery pick. In his case, playing a full year may even HELP him with NBA teams who may be fearful that he is "injury prone" after his freshmen year.
4. Fear that a poor season performance-wise will hurt draft status: This is what happened to Ryan Minor. He was highly touted after his junior year, then had a so-so senior season that turned off many NBA teams. Again, there aren't many cases in history where this applies, but it is possible.
It's a risk I suppose. If Blake and his "people" aren't confident that he'll play at a high level as a sophomore, then this could be a real sticking point. If they feel he did as well as he could ever do in college, then this situation may apply. I don't think that's the case at all though. I have a VERY hard time seeing Blake taking a step back as a player next year.
5. Unable to improve draft status by returning: A player doesn't stand much of a chance of moving up in the draft if they return.
Very strong draft this year. Blake is clearly behind Beasley, and most projections have him in the 6-10 range if he were to come out this season. It seems very likely that he could improve that status next year-- especially if NBA teams see a more seasoned college sophomore.
6. Player is unhappy/ready to turn pro: This is a personal one. If a player does not enjoy college, etc. then they might as well turn pro if they are going to be picked in the lottery. If they don't really have the desire to play college ball anymore and/or if they are in a rush to be a true "adult" then it's time to go to the NBA.
Again, I don't know Blake or his family. But from everything I can gather, Blake very much enjoys playing with Taylor and being around his family/playing college basketball. I also have heard Blake mention Willie Warren on more than one occasion. It would make sense that Blake would like to play with Taylor during Taylor's senior year AND have a shot to accomplish some good things with WW in the fold.
Conclusion:
Taking off my crimson colored goggles and eliminating all fandom from the equation, I would STILL reccommend that Blake Griffin return to college next year.
I don't think he really meets ANY of the 6 criteria listed above. It's basically a "pro and con" list and it's pretty much a clean sweep.
I think he would be making a mistake by turning pro right now. I fear that he would be viewed soley as a "banger" and that whoever drafted him may not take the time to help him develop-- and he may be pigeon-holed into a certain role for the beginning of his career.
Someone please print this out and present it to coach Capel for the next "sitdown" meeting with the Griffins. :)
Figured I'd start a thread to address the situation.
Here are my thoughts. I am listing all of the reasons a college freshmen would go to the NBA, followed by an analysis of how Blake fits in to each. In the end, I'll give a conclusion.
1. Desperate Need for Money: Many players who leave early do so in part because they have a dire financial/family situation. Waiting a year or more to cash in is a year or more too long.
I obviously don't know the Griffin family's financial situation, but from everything I can gather, there doesn't seem to be a pressing need for Blake to turn pro in order to help his family.
2. Your game is ready for the NBA and won't benefit from more time in college: Michael Beasley probably won't improve much by staying in school. His game is already pretty polished. Durant was a similar case. And guy's like Lebron were just so advanced that college wouldn't have done much for them.
While there is no doubt that Blake is already an intruiging pro prospect, his game could certainly still use some refining. Let's face it, he basically NEVER takes a shot outside of the paint. In college, he probably won't have to, but I do think it would be an obvious benefit for him on the next level to develop a tad of an outside game, or at least some more signature post moves.
3. Fear than an injury in college could derail his pro career: This one gets thrown around a lot, but it basically never happens. "Career-ending" injuries are very rare in basketball. I racked my brain trying to think of a high-level prospect who stayed in school, got hurt, and never made it in the pros-- I couldn't think of one. This is a fallacy, really.
Even if Blake tore his ACL in the 1st game of the season, he'd still be an NBA lottery pick. In his case, playing a full year may even HELP him with NBA teams who may be fearful that he is "injury prone" after his freshmen year.
4. Fear that a poor season performance-wise will hurt draft status: This is what happened to Ryan Minor. He was highly touted after his junior year, then had a so-so senior season that turned off many NBA teams. Again, there aren't many cases in history where this applies, but it is possible.
It's a risk I suppose. If Blake and his "people" aren't confident that he'll play at a high level as a sophomore, then this could be a real sticking point. If they feel he did as well as he could ever do in college, then this situation may apply. I don't think that's the case at all though. I have a VERY hard time seeing Blake taking a step back as a player next year.
5. Unable to improve draft status by returning: A player doesn't stand much of a chance of moving up in the draft if they return.
Very strong draft this year. Blake is clearly behind Beasley, and most projections have him in the 6-10 range if he were to come out this season. It seems very likely that he could improve that status next year-- especially if NBA teams see a more seasoned college sophomore.
6. Player is unhappy/ready to turn pro: This is a personal one. If a player does not enjoy college, etc. then they might as well turn pro if they are going to be picked in the lottery. If they don't really have the desire to play college ball anymore and/or if they are in a rush to be a true "adult" then it's time to go to the NBA.
Again, I don't know Blake or his family. But from everything I can gather, Blake very much enjoys playing with Taylor and being around his family/playing college basketball. I also have heard Blake mention Willie Warren on more than one occasion. It would make sense that Blake would like to play with Taylor during Taylor's senior year AND have a shot to accomplish some good things with WW in the fold.
Conclusion:
Taking off my crimson colored goggles and eliminating all fandom from the equation, I would STILL reccommend that Blake Griffin return to college next year.
I don't think he really meets ANY of the 6 criteria listed above. It's basically a "pro and con" list and it's pretty much a clean sweep.
I think he would be making a mistake by turning pro right now. I fear that he would be viewed soley as a "banger" and that whoever drafted him may not take the time to help him develop-- and he may be pigeon-holed into a certain role for the beginning of his career.
Someone please print this out and present it to coach Capel for the next "sitdown" meeting with the Griffins. :)