the scorecarding project sponsored by the gaylord family

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

scorecard committee - topdawg, rhino, racerx, norm, jkm, cobrakai
compiler - jkm

the following is a quantitative scorecarding approach to each season. this is, of course, a matter of opinion as your results vary greatly depending on the way that you weight the values. points are assigned for certain accomplishments as detailed below. this scorecard took the following ideas as our foundation for assigning points:

1. winning is the most important aspect of OU football
2. an 8-4 season regular season is the minimum expected result for an OU team. it is this high because of the historical records of the school, a team like pokey state should move this down to 5-7.
3. nfl draft position has no relevance as any advantages gained from it should be reflected at the individual player through his career at OU.
4. individual awards help to differentiate players, but are secondary to wins.

and now, our scorecard (data found here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pe5JBR6WEVxoqqTtdhPkoVA))

for each game played -> .25 points

this gives base points for contribution to the team. allocating these are pretty subjective, so for example, if someone is on special teams i'm okay with giving them credit. however, if they are jason white vs nebraska in 2000, i'm not inclined to give them credit.

for each reg season win -> 1 point
for each reg season loss -> - 2 points

this puts the breakeven for wins/losses at 66% win percentage. i think this is very reasonable and in line with what you would expect from OU.

note that postseason isn't included in the loss column. when you look at it empiracally, 2001 and 2003 have very similar records. by our standards, 2003 was a better season than 2001, but how do you explain that.

in 2001 we went 10-2 in the regular season and won the cotton bowl

in 2003 we went 12-0 in the regular season and lost in the national title game

by only using regular season points, you come up with 6 points for 2001 and 12 for 2002. i think this accurately sums up the differences in the regular seasons for both squads. for postseason we are going to use the following formulas.

big 12 title game appearance 2 points
big 12 title win 2 points
bowl game appearance 1 point
bowl game win 1 point
bcs bowl game appearance 2 points
bcs win 2 points
MNC appearance 4 points
MNC win 4 points

this would net 2001 with 8 points and 2003 with 18 points - magnifying the differences in the season.

we've also added the following bonuses for individuals
all big 12 - .4
all american - .5
national award - .5
top 20 positional season at OU - .75


let's compare some great seasons that players had at OU for validation that were relatively similar

josh heupel 2000, Q - 2002, jason white - 2003, adrian peterson 2004

heupel 2000 - games played (13) 3.25 + wins (11) 11 - losses (0) + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + mnc game 4 + mnc win 4 + record at OU .75 + awards .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 28.4

Q 2002 - games played (14) 3.5 + wins (10) - losses (4) + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + bcs game 2 + bcs win 2 + record at OU .75 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 19.15

jason white - games played (14) 3.5 + wins (12) - losses (0) + big 12 game 2 + mnc game 4 + record at OU .75 + awards + .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 23.65

peterson 2004 - games played (13) 3.25 + wins (11) 11 - losses (0) 0 + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + mnc game 4 + record at OU .75 + awards .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 24.4


handling transfers - measuring the quantitative impact of a transfer on a team is difficult. some transfers have no impact on the team at all, whereas others hurt it acutely. how we've decided to handle this concept is to give all transfers an initial -1 for the transfer. from that point til their eligibility expires, they are charged for the losses that the team accrues. this gives the relative impact to the team as a whole.

DNQ's - if a player doesn't qualify he is given a flat -5 the first year of the disqualification

early entrants to the NFL - no static penalty but are charged for all losses the team incurrs til their eligibility is expired (max 2 years). this reflects the impact of losing a high quality player on the next year's team.

medical transfers - are treated as transfers for purposes of this evaluation.

baseball entrants - there are only 2 and each was considered an absolute longshot to enter college. it was decided to not count these in the scorecard at all.

[Collier11]

scorecard committee - topdawg, rhino, racerx, norm, jkm, cobrakai
compiler - jkm

the following is a quantitative scorecarding approach to each season. this is, of course, a matter of opinion as your results vary greatly depending on the way that you weight the values. points are assigned for certain accomplishments as detailed below. this scorecard took the following ideas as our foundation for assigning points:

1. winning is the most important aspect of OU football
2. an 8-4 season regular season is the minimum expected result for an OU team. it is this high because of the historical records of the school, a team like pokey state should move this down to 5-7.
3. nfl draft position has no relevance as any advantages gained from it should be reflected at the individual player through his career at OU.
4. individual awards help to differentiate players, but are secondary to wins.

and now, our scorecard (data found here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pe5JBR6WEVxoqqTtdhPkoVA))

for each game played -> .25 points

this gives base points for contribution to the team. allocating these are pretty subjective, so for example, if someone is on special teams i'm okay with giving them credit. however, if they are jason white vs nebraska in 2000, i'm not inclined to give them credit.

for each reg season win -> 1 point
for each reg season loss -> - 2 points

this puts the breakeven for wins/losses at 66% win percentage. i think this is very reasonable and in line with what you would expect from OU.

note that postseason isn't included in the loss column. when you look at it empiracally, 2001 and 2003 have very similar records. by our standards, 2003 was a better season than 2001, but how do you explain that.

in 2001 we went 10-2 in the regular season and won the cotton bowl

in 2003 we went 12-0 in the regular season and lost in the national title game

by only using regular season points, you come up with 6 points for 2001 and 12 for 2002. i think this accurately sums up the differences in the regular seasons for both squads. for postseason we are going to use the following formulas.

big 12 title game appearance 2 points
big 12 title win 2 points
bowl game appearance 1 point
bowl game win 1 point
bcs bowl game appearance 2 points
bcs win 2 points
MNC appearance 4 points
MNC win 4 points

this would net 2001 with 8 points and 2003 with 18 points - magnifying the differences in the season.

we've also added the following bonuses for individuals
all big 12 - .4
all american - .5
national award - .5
top 20 positional season at OU - .75


let's compare some great seasons that players had at OU for validation that were relatively similar

josh heupel 2000, Q - 2002, jason white - 2003, adrian peterson 2004

heupel 2000 - games played (13) 3.25 + wins (11) 11 - losses (0) + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + mnc game 4 + mnc win 4 + record at OU .75 + awards .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 28.4

Q 2002 - games played (14) 3.5 + wins (10) - losses (4) + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + bcs game 2 + bcs win 2 + record at OU .75 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 19.15

jason white - games played (14) 3.5 + wins (12) - losses (0) + big 12 game 2 + mnc game 4 + record at OU .75 + awards + .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 23.65

peterson 2004 - games played (13) 3.25 + wins (11) 11 - losses (0) 0 + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + mnc game 4 + record at OU .75 + awards .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 24.4


handling transfers - measuring the quantitative impact of a transfer on a team is difficult. some transfers have no impact on the team at all, whereas others hurt it acutely. how we've decided to handle this concept is to give all transfers an initial -1 for the transfer. from that point til their eligibility expires, they are charged for the losses that the team accrues. this gives the relative impact to the team as a whole.

DNQ's - if a player doesn't qualify he is given a flat -5 the first year of the disqualification

early entrants to the NFL - no static penalty but are charged for all losses the team incurrs til their eligibility is expired (max 2 years). this reflects the impact of losing a high quality player on the next year's team.

medical transfers - are treated as transfers for purposes of this evaluation.

baseball entrants - there are only 2 and each was considered an absolute longshot to enter college. it was decided to not count these in the scorecard at all.



:confused: :confused: :confused: :confused:

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

this is outlining the way we created the data. we'll look at different slices of the cube as we go through the offseason.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

lets look at how the 4 players accumulated points over their careers

josh heupel 1999 - 4.15
josh heupel 2000 - 28.4
total - 32.55 (in 2 years)

quentin griffin 1999 - 2
quentin griffin 2000 - 26.25
quentin griffin 2001 - 11.25
quentin griffin 2002 - 19.15
total - 58.65

jason white 1999-2000 0
jason white 2001 - 3.25
jason white 2002 - 2.5
jason white 2003 - 23.65
jason white 2004 - 24.4
total - 53.8

adrian peterson 2004 - 24.4
adrian peterson 2005 - 5.15
adrian peterson 2006 - 2.15
adrian peterson 2007 - (4)

[sooneron]

No N8?

[The Maestro]

Good

Will

Hunting

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

nate...

Nate Hybl 28.75
1999 0
2000 2.5
2001 10
2002 16.25
2003 0

in basically 3 years

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

looking at the stoops recruiting classes by year we have

1999 498.55
2000 851.8
2001 693.5
2002 642.3
2003 216.05
2004 270.15
2005 450.9
2006 229
2007 14.25

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

i'm not sure that anyone can argue that 2003 and 2004 were not weak classes.

1/2 the 2003 class transferred
1/2 the 2004 class had qualification/rules issues (it was also a really small class)

[RedstickSooner]

Jkm, seriously, you're awesome. I'm giggling like a little girl right now, because this is so incredibly insane. And at the same time, I'm *totally* looking forward to the rest of your data.

This, in a nutshell, is one of the things I enjoy most about Soonerfans. The fact that there are some fans out there sooooooo much more intense than I could ever hope to be.

Truly, we bask in your reflected sports nerd glory. This is awesome.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

Jkm, seriously, you're awesome. I'm giggling like a little girl right now, because this is so incredibly insane. And at the same time, I'm *totally* looking forward to the rest of your data.

This, in a nutshell, is one of the things I enjoy most about Soonerfans. The fact that there are some fans out there sooooooo much more intense than I could ever hope to be.

Truly, we bask in your reflected sports nerd glory. This is awesome.

i blame topdawg :mad: . it was actually not that difficult to take the recent stats and parse them into the spreadsheet. where it got tough was 2001 and before. the original plan before presentation was to try to take this back through gibbs. the SID shut me down saying they didn't keep player participation data. :(

oops, i forgot 04 on the committee. he of course wanted this taken back through the selmons. he is dead to me...

[snp]

Awesome work as usual.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

tomorrow we'll look at the totals by coaches...

[Scott D]

i'm not sure that anyone can argue that 2003 and 2004 were not weak classes.

1/2 the 2003 class transferred
1/2 the 2004 class had qualification/rules issues (it was also a really small class)

I thought the score for 2003 was higher than expected all things considered.

[NormanPride]

Fascinating. You can really see how 2003 & 2004 hurt us a ton. Hopefully the next few will be back up to standards.

I also don't seem to have access to the raw data.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pe5JBR6WEVxoqqTtdhPkoVA&output=html&gid=0&single=true

[OKLA21FAN]

scorecard committee - topdawg, rhino, racerx, norm, jkm, cobrakai
compiler - jkm

the following is a quantitative scorecarding approach to each season. this is, of course, a matter of opinion as your results vary greatly depending on the way that you weight the values. points are assigned for certain accomplishments as detailed below. this scorecard took the following ideas as our foundation for assigning points:

1. winning is the most important aspect of OU football
2. an 8-4 season regular season is the minimum expected result for an OU team. it is this high because of the historical records of the school, a team like pokey state should move this down to 5-7.
3. nfl draft position has no relevance as any advantages gained from it should be reflected at the individual player through his career at OU.
4. individual awards help to differentiate players, but are secondary to wins.

and now, our scorecard (data found here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pe5JBR6WEVxoqqTtdhPkoVA))

for each game played -> .25 points

this gives base points for contribution to the team. allocating these are pretty subjective, so for example, if someone is on special teams i'm okay with giving them credit. however, if they are jason white vs nebraska in 2000, i'm not inclined to give them credit.

for each reg season win -> 1 point
for each reg season loss -> - 2 points

this puts the breakeven for wins/losses at 66% win percentage. i think this is very reasonable and in line with what you would expect from OU.

note that postseason isn't included in the loss column. when you look at it empiracally, 2001 and 2003 have very similar records. by our standards, 2003 was a better season than 2001, but how do you explain that.

in 2001 we went 10-2 in the regular season and won the cotton bowl

in 2003 we went 12-0 in the regular season and lost in the national title game

by only using regular season points, you come up with 6 points for 2001 and 12 for 2002. i think this accurately sums up the differences in the regular seasons for both squads. for postseason we are going to use the following formulas.

big 12 title game appearance 2 points
big 12 title win 2 points
bowl game appearance 1 point
bowl game win 1 point
bcs bowl game appearance 2 points
bcs win 2 points
MNC appearance 4 points
MNC win 4 points

this would net 2001 with 8 points and 2003 with 18 points - magnifying the differences in the season.

we've also added the following bonuses for individuals
all big 12 - .4
all american - .5
national award - .5
top 20 positional season at OU - .75


let's compare some great seasons that players had at OU for validation that were relatively similar

josh heupel 2000, Q - 2002, jason white - 2003, adrian peterson 2004

heupel 2000 - games played (13) 3.25 + wins (11) 11 - losses (0) + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + mnc game 4 + mnc win 4 + record at OU .75 + awards .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 28.4

Q 2002 - games played (14) 3.5 + wins (10) - losses (4) + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + bcs game 2 + bcs win 2 + record at OU .75 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 19.15

jason white - games played (14) 3.5 + wins (12) - losses (0) + big 12 game 2 + mnc game 4 + record at OU .75 + awards + .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 23.65

peterson 2004 - games played (13) 3.25 + wins (11) 11 - losses (0) 0 + big 12 game 2 + big 12 win 2 + mnc game 4 + record at OU .75 + awards .5 + AA .5 + big 12 .4 = 24.4


handling transfers - measuring the quantitative impact of a transfer on a team is difficult. some transfers have no impact on the team at all, whereas others hurt it acutely. how we've decided to handle this concept is to give all transfers an initial -1 for the transfer. from that point til their eligibility expires, they are charged for the losses that the team accrues. this gives the relative impact to the team as a whole.

DNQ's - if a player doesn't qualify he is given a flat -5 the first year of the disqualification

early entrants to the NFL - no static penalty but are charged for all losses the team incurrs til their eligibility is expired (max 2 years). this reflects the impact of losing a high quality player on the next year's team.

medical transfers - are treated as transfers for purposes of this evaluation.

baseball entrants - there are only 2 and each was considered an absolute longshot to enter college. it was decided to not count these in the scorecard at all.
http://www.impawards.com/2001/posters/beautiful_mind.jpg

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

i'm going to put a placeholder piece of data here until we get some permissions stuff taken care of on html...

looking at points accrued by the "recruiting coach". this is defined as the coach at the position when the player committed.

caveats

1) recent years will not have accrued very many points as of yet (most classes accrue their highest point total in their 3rd year on campus). so coaches like heupel and chris wilson will have lower than expected results.

2) coaches with more players at a position (OL and DB mainly) will accrue more points than coaches at other positions. for these we will attempt to normalize the points by adding an additional field that will dilute by the number of players at the position. (this is pending the html updates).


Brent Venables.....................502.2
Jackie Shipp.......................500.3
Mike Stoops........................491.4
Bobby J Wright....................432.3
Cale Gundy.........................364
Steve Spurrier Jr..................326.5
Jonathon Hayes....................247.65
Mangino...............................224.85
Darryl Wyatt.........................187.3
Kevin Sumlin........................119.75
Mike Leach...........................117.6
Patton..................................82.5
Kevin Wilson........................80.45
Chris Wilson.........................64.65
Bo Pelini..............................44.25
Walkon................................42.5
Bob Stoops..........................34.8
Josh Heupel.........................21.75
Chuck Long.........................-18.25

the real surprising tallies for me were 1) mike stoops being as high as he was and 2)sos jr being the highest per dilution by year (will add once the html is in). chuck long didn't surprise me one bit...

looking deeper into the points accrued by player for mike stoops we have the following

1999 Class........................213.45
Derrick Strait.....................78.3
Brandon Everage................76.9
Michael Thompson..............50.75
Matt McCoy........................7.5
2000 Class.........................69.25
Brandon Shelby..................55
Terrance Simms..................24.25
Darren Stephens.................0
Vernon Maxwell...................-5
Michael Freeman.................-5
2001 Class.........................50.25
Eric Bassey.........................51.25
Jowahn Poteat.....................34
Bobby Klinck.......................-9
Justin Williams....................-13
Avery Shine........................-13
2002 Class.........................70.15
Jason Carter.......................48
Brodney Pool......................40.65
Micheal Hawkins.................-5.5
Aaron Miller........................-13
2003 Class.........................88.3
Donte Nicholson..................44.55
Darien Williams...................34.75
Chijioke Onyenegecha..........26
Tony Cade..........................-17

what we see is that almost 1/2 of mike's points came in his very first recruiting class. the rest of his classes followed a disturbing pattern -> 1/2 played, 1/2 left.

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

jackie ship over the same time period

Year 1 100.75
Year 2 54.55
Year 3 106.15
Year 4 50.95
Year 5 66.25
Year 6 53.75
Year 7 44.4
Year 8 28.5
Year 9 -5

brent venables
Year 1 7.65
Year 2 149.9
Year 3 77.15
Year 4 186.1
Year 5 48.25
Year 6 -5
Year 7 46.15
Year 8 -10
Year 9 0

bjw
Year 1 -8
Year 2 112.45
Year 3 67.7
Year 4 106.55
Year 5 10
Year 6 15.25
Year 7 112.85
Year 8 15.5
Year 9 0

cale gundy
Year 1 58.65
Year 2 88.25
Year 3 99
Year 5 1.5
Year 6 82.35
Year 8 34.25

[Mjcpr]

Please hide this thread before some of our rivals see it and make fun of us.

[insuranceman_22]

dammit, now that's some impressive stuff!

[Beano's Fourth Chin]

jackie ship over the same time period

Year 1 100.75
Year 2 54.55
Year 3 106.15
Year 4 50.95
Year 5 66.25
Year 6 53.75
Year 7 44.4
Year 8 28.5
Year 9 -5

brent venables
Year 1 7.65
Year 2 149.9
Year 3 77.15
Year 4 186.1
Year 5 48.25
Year 6 -5
Year 7 46.15
Year 8 -10
Year 9 0

bjw
Year 1 -8
Year 2 112.45
Year 3 67.7
Year 4 106.55
Year 5 10
Year 6 15.25
Year 7 112.85
Year 8 15.5
Year 9 0

cale gundy
Year 1 58.65
Year 2 88.25
Year 3 99
Year 5 1.5
Year 6 82.35
Year 8 34.25

Averages for the years shown:

Shipp: 55.59
venables: 55.58
bjw: 59.14
gundy: 60.67

[Explodo]

Why not use Minitab-15 and do some real statistical analysis.

At least set up the tolerance bands around each number.

We need Charts Dammit! :D

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

the data is on an sql server so i could set up some public cubes we could pull from. of course, that would require more motivation that i have. ;)

[TopDawg]

i blame topdawg :mad: . it was actually not that difficult to take the recent stats and parse them into the spreadsheet. where it got tough was 2001 and before. the original plan before presentation was to try to take this back through gibbs. the SID shut me down saying they didn't keep player participation data. :(

oops, i forgot 04 on the committee. he of course wanted this taken back through the selmons. he is dead to me...

You're welcome. :D

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

so now lets look at total accumulated points by year the coach was at the position, independent of the actual year it took place. (ie mike stoops 1st year was 1999, while kevin wilson's first year was 2002)

Year 1.....716.95....17....42
Year 2.....911.70....16....57
Year 3.....779.25....12....65
Year 4.....710.75....10....71
Year 5.....255.55....10....25
Year 6.....181.15....5......36
Year 7.....203.40....5......40
Year 8.....68.25......5......13
Year 9.....-5...........5......-1

notes: 6,7,8, and 9 are all the same 5 (bob, cale, bobby jack, jackie, and brent) with the last couple of years of classes still on campus.

conclusions:

1. the first year is fairly rough. this number gets worse if you take out just 3 coaches (mike stoops, sos jr, and mike leach) as the average plummets to 25.

total recruits.....44
transfers..........13
DNQs...............2

2. they get better as they spend time on campus as seen by the trendline up from year 1 to year 4

3. the big drop off points are between year's 2 and 3 and 5 and 6. looks like bob may be on a 3 year plan ;).

4. between 5 and 6 is bad. like really bad. however, looking at the list of names, this seems to be a statistical anomoly

total recruits....20
transfers..........4
DNQs...............0

players accumulating points:

Corey Wilson
Londell Taylor
Tyler Stradford
Erik Mensik
Jermaine Gresham
Rhett Bomar
Darien Williams
Chijioke Onyenegecha
Donte Nicholson
Tony Cade
Alonzo Dotson
Carl Pendleton
Moe Dampeer
Steven Coleman
Demarrio Pleasant
Lewis Baker
Cody Freeby
Courtney Tennial
Jacob Gutierrez
Tashard Choice

[jkm, the stolen pifwafwi]

meandering on to transfer totals
Pos........#xfrs.......total......%xfrs
P............0............1...........0%
TE..........0............10.........0%
FB..........1............4...........25%
DE..........1............20.........5%
K............1............6...........17%
DT..........2............21..........10%
RB..........2............16..........13%
QB..........4............13..........31%
WR.........6.............25.........24%
LB..........6.............27.........22%
DB.........7.............36..........19%
OL.........15............42..........36%

by recruiting coach year...
Year........#xfrs.......total......%xfrs
Year 1........13...........44.........30%
Year 2........10...........46.........22%
Year 3........13...........40.........33%
Year 4.........6............32.........19%
Year 5.........4............20.........20%
Year 6........0..............6...........0%
Year 7........0.............11..........0%
Year 8........0.............12..........0%
Year 9........0..............9...........0%

numbers updated...