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SicEmBaylor
3/19/2008, 05:23 PM
Here's a cool website where you can play around with the electoral college map.

http://www.270towin.com/

I made my own predictions assuming an Obama v. McCain match up, and here's what I think the map will look like on election night this november.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v313/SicEmBaylor/08predict.jpg

olevetonahill
3/19/2008, 05:29 PM
I dont Like that
Its showing Dayum Yankees and fruits and Nuts telling the other 3/4 of the country Whos gonna be the Boss !:mad:

SicEmBaylor
3/19/2008, 05:34 PM
I dont Like that
Its showing Dayum Yankees and fruits and Nuts telling the other 3/4 of the country Whos gonna be the Boss !:mad:

Yep.

olevetonahill
3/19/2008, 05:37 PM
Yep.

Ive never agreed with the electoral process :mad:

SicEmBaylor
3/19/2008, 05:43 PM
Ive never agreed with the electoral process :mad:

You should! It's an absolutely brilliant system even though, obviously, you can't always get what you want out of it.

First, it would be much much worse if there were just a nation-wide popular vote. Then you would have the major cities holding all the chips in choosing a candidate to the detriment of smaller states and rural areas.

Second, the true brilliance of the electoral college is the way in which it balances population and geographical interests to give both a healthy amount of influence in the election process. It's also the very last means by which the individual states can "check" the Federal government. If you take out the electoral college then you'd just have states that are purely administrative districts.

Third, the map actually typically favors Republican candidates though recent population trends in swing states are decreasing the GOP's inherent advantage in the electoral college count.

I love the EC though, and I am always against changing the system the Constitutional Framer's devised.

SoonerInKCMO
3/19/2008, 05:53 PM
I dont Like that
Its showing Dayum Yankees and fruits and Nuts telling the other 3/4 of the country Whos gonna be the Boss !:mad:


Yep.

3/4 of the country? Nobody lives in half of those red states.

As for the Electoral College, put me down as one who doesn't like it for two reasons:
1) The value of your vote depends on the population of the state you live in - a Wyominger's vote is worth more than a Californian's.
2) Smaller states that lean heavily one way or the other, like Oklahoma for example, get little attention from the candidates. Why would Clinton or Obama bother to come to Oklahoma during the general campaign when they know that even if they pull in another 100,000 votes they won't get squat for it?

SicEmBaylor
3/19/2008, 05:58 PM
3/4 of the country? Nobody lives in half of those red states.

As for the Electoral College, put me down as one who doesn't like it for two reasons:
1) The value of your vote depends on the population of the state you live in - a Wyominger's vote is worth more than a Californian's.
2) Smaller states that lean heavily one way or the other, like Oklahoma for example, get little attention from the candidates. Why would Clinton or Obama bother to come to Oklahoma during the general campaign when they know that even if they pull in another 100,000 votes they won't get squat for it?

Why would they bother to come to Oklahoma even if there were a national popular vote? Oklahoma has what, 3.5m people? The only population centers that would make it worthwhile to visit would be OKC and Tulsa and neither of those are big enough to warrant much attention.

I think a good compromise is lobbying state governments to award their electoral votes based on congressional district. The winner of the majority of a state's congressional districts would be awarded the extra +2 electoral votes and in the case of a tie they would be split with each candidate getting 1 electoral vote. I think this is the very best way because it gives candidates the opportunity to break into states that are generally solidly for the other party, it increases the weight of the individual vote, and it stays true to the original vision of the electoral college system (the legislatures not selecting the slate notwithstanding.)

mdklatt
3/19/2008, 06:08 PM
You know what I'm hoping for? McCain to edge the popular vote but the Dems to win based on the electoral vote. Oh the hilarity and flip-flopping that will ensue. With SicEm's map that could easily happen, because a lot of the Blue states are going to barely be Blue.

mdklatt
3/19/2008, 06:19 PM
It doesn't look good for the Pubz. Even giving them VA, CO, NM, and PA isn't enough. They're going to need some upsets in the northeast, and they're going to have to have FL. With the way the economy is, it's going to be tough for them to pick up any Rust Belt states, so PA is probably going to go Dem, and then they're really screwed.

SoonerInKCMO
3/19/2008, 06:24 PM
Why would they bother to come to Oklahoma even if there were a national popular vote? Oklahoma has what, 3.5m people? The only population centers that would make it worthwhile to visit would be OKC and Tulsa and neither of those are big enough to warrant much attention.

If they came to OKC with its 1.2 million people in the metropolitan area, they could get a few thousand extra votes that would actually count. Yeah, OKC and Tulsa aren't big enough to warrant much attention for a popular vote; but now they aren't worth any attention.

Jerk
3/19/2008, 06:33 PM
You know what I'm hoping for? McCain to edge the popular vote but the Dems to win based on the electoral vote. Oh the hilarity and flip-flopping that will ensue. With SicEm's map that could easily happen, because a lot of the Blue states are going to barely be Blue.

I don't see Republicans acting like crybabies in that situation and asking for recount after recount until they get the desired results. Right now I'd be more concerned about what other radical elements of Obama's past will be dragged out.

mdklatt
3/19/2008, 06:35 PM
I don't see Republicans acting like crybabies in that situation and asking for recount after recount until they get the desired results.


Riiiiight....

Nobody seems to remember this, but the Pubz were bitching and moaning about the electoral college before the 2000 election when it looked like Gore was going to lose the popular vote but win the electoral vote.

Frozen Sooner
3/19/2008, 06:51 PM
SicEm-the assumption of Alaska as a pure Red state may not hold in this election. I mean, it could be completely unrealistic, but talking to the party honchos they think that if Obama is the nominee that he has a pretty decent chance of taking the state. Clinton, not so much-Obama killed in the caucuses here and a lot of it was independents registering specifically to vote for Obama.

mdklatt
3/19/2008, 06:54 PM
SicEm-the assumption of Alaska as a pure Red state may not hold in this election.

You know both sides are going to be sweating that half an electoral vote. :D


That would be a pretty epic shift if Alaska goes Dem, wouldn't it?

Jimminy Crimson
3/19/2008, 06:54 PM
Yeah, OKC and Tulsa aren't big enough to warrant much attention for a popular vote; but now they aren't worth any attention.

So McCain should cancel his April visit to OKC? :texan:

mdklatt
3/19/2008, 06:56 PM
So McCain should cancel his April visit to OKC? :texan:

Yes. What's the point?

Oklahoma wouldn't vote Dem even if the Pub candidate was found in bed with a live boy or a dead hooker, as the saying goes.

Frozen Sooner
3/19/2008, 06:59 PM
You know both sides are going to be sweating that half an electoral vote. :D


That would be a pretty epic shift if Alaska goes Dem, wouldn't it?

It'd be unusual, that's for sure. Johnson was the last Democrat to win the state. And all three electors. :D

shaun4411
3/19/2008, 07:02 PM
its probably going to come down to states like ohio, florida, maybe even missouri. mccain could see trouble in the south if the race card is played enough.

mdklatt
3/19/2008, 07:13 PM
its probably going to come down to states like ohio, florida, maybe even missouri. mccain could see trouble in the south if the race card is played enough.


Oh I'm sure the race card is going to get played in the South, but not on Obama's behalf. Look at the Mississippi primary--Hillary took the white Democrat vote by a large margin. In the South you've got two kinds of white Democrats: real Democrats in urban areas and southern "Democrats" everywhere else. The only difference between a southern Republican and a southern Democrat is that the Democrat still holds a grudge against the Republicans for the Civil War. In Oklahoma, the southern Democrats only vote Dem at the local and state level.

OklahomaTuba
3/19/2008, 08:17 PM
No way Obama wins Florida.

OklahomaTuba
3/19/2008, 08:19 PM
Or Ohio, Colorado & New Mexico.

At this point, the donks nominating the man from the racist black church is probably the worst possible thing that can happen running against a guy who will pull about 20% of the democratic vote.

shaun4411
3/19/2008, 08:30 PM
Oh I'm sure the race card is going to get played in the South, but not on Obama's behalf. Look at the Mississippi primary--Hillary took the white Democrat vote by a large margin. In the South you've got two kinds of white Democrats: real Democrats in urban areas and southern "Democrats" everywhere else. The only difference between a southern Republican and a southern Democrat is that the Democrat still holds a grudge against the Republicans for the Civil War. In Oklahoma, the southern Democrats only vote Dem at the local and state level.

eloquently put. one of my fav democrats is zell miller of georgia. a smart man. a smart dem. which is a lot coming from a conservative independent "libertarian"

OklahomaTuba
3/19/2008, 08:42 PM
I'd vote for Zell any day. Ditto for Leiberman (sans Mr. Global Warming).

RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!
3/19/2008, 09:35 PM
Obama's past is still being unveiled. What does your projection look like with Hellery as the dem nominee, SicEm?

setem
3/19/2008, 09:37 PM
Could one you tell me how to get to the Union?


YELLOW CARD!

Tiptonsooner
3/19/2008, 10:01 PM
Zell damn sure doesn't pull any punches..

Big Red Ron
3/19/2008, 10:29 PM
No way Obama wins Florida.Or Ohio, Michigan, PA and I think New Mexico and Colorado, since he's from the four corners.

SicEmBaylor
3/19/2008, 11:59 PM
Or Ohio, Colorado & New Mexico.

At this point, the donks nominating the man from the racist black church is probably the worst possible thing that can happen running against a guy who will pull about 20% of the democratic vote.

You're delusional, but as always, thanks for playing.

OklahomaTuba
3/20/2008, 01:03 PM
You're delusional, but as always, thanks for playing.

I see you're the type that just skips any intelligent debate and just gets right to the personal attacks. :rolleyes:

Have you even looked at any polling data? McCain has nearly a double digit lead in Florida and Ohio at this point. The more American's learn about BHO, I suspect it will be much, much higher.

soonerboomer93
3/20/2008, 01:39 PM
You're delusional, but as always, thanks for playing.
honestly, i don't think a dem can pull colorado. I know Obama won the caucus, but Hillary might hold a better chance since she has better hispanic support.

RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!
3/20/2008, 02:08 PM
You're delusional, but as always, thanks for playing.SicEm goes for a personal put-down. Highly unusual for you!

RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!
3/20/2008, 02:11 PM
I see you're the type that just skips any intelligent debate and just gets right to the personal attacks. :rolleyes:

Have you even looked at any polling data? McCain has nearly a double digit lead in Florida and Ohio at this point. The more American's learn about BHO, I suspect it will be much, much higher.BHO needs to bite the dust(figuratively). An Obama presidency is much scarier than either Hellery or McCain.

CORNholio
3/21/2008, 01:01 AM
You should! It's an absolutely brilliant system even though, obviously, you can't always get what you want out of it.

First, it would be much much worse if there were just a nation-wide popular vote. Then you would have the major cities holding all the chips in choosing a candidate to the detriment of smaller states and rural areas.

Second, the true brilliance of the electoral college is the way in which it balances population and geographical interests to give both a healthy amount of influence in the election process. It's also the very last means by which the individual states can "check" the Federal government. If you take out the electoral college then you'd just have states that are purely administrative districts.

Third, the map actually typically favors Republican candidates though recent population trends in swing states are decreasing the GOP's inherent advantage in the electoral college count.

I love the EC though, and I am always against changing the system the Constitutional Framer's devised.

To the contrary, a nation wide vote would make every vote equal. The electoral college is what slants the votes and makes one vote worth more than the other. It was necessary 200 hundred years ago when communication and travel were enormous obstacles that hindered due process but in today's time this is of no consequence and should be reconsidered.

CORNholio
3/21/2008, 01:07 AM
BHO needs to bite the dust(figuratively). An Obama presidency is much scarier than either Hellery or McCain.

Agreed. This is the worst choice of candidates in history. I would rather elect sloth from the goonies than any of these guys. He may not be very smart but atleast i know he is not embodied corruption.

CORNholio
3/21/2008, 01:11 AM
BHO needs to bite the dust(figuratively). An Obama presidency is much scarier than either Hellery or McCain.

I would vote McCain as the lesser evil. The man has done much and proven much in his life. Hellery not so much. A POW is more deserving than a coat tail riding, silver spoon born, feminazi.

SicEmBaylor
3/21/2008, 01:21 AM
To the contrary, a nation wide vote would make every vote equal. The electoral college is what slants the votes and makes one vote worth more than the other. It was necessary 200 hundred years ago when communication and travel were enormous obstacles that hindered due process but in today's time this is of no consequence and should be reconsidered.

First of all, the electoral college was not designed to be the best means of ensuring every individual vote is of equal weight -- it was designed to give the states power and input on the national level. I couldn't care less about every vote carrying equal weight and personally believe that the expansion of suffrage is one of the greatest evils and threats to the Republic.

My concern with eliminating the Electoral College is the effect it'll have on the delicate balance between the constitutional responsibilities of the states and Federal government. More important than "checks and balances" among the Federal branches, in my opinion, is the ability of the states and Federal government to "check" one another's power. The constitution attempts to delicately balance both vertical and horizontal checks, and unfortunately those vertical checks have been systematically dismantled and eliminated.

People who advocate to dissolution of the electoral college either don't understand or don't care the brilliant but delicate complexity of playing branches and levels of government off on one another.

The Constitution has been shredded enough -- let's not continue to find new ways of continuing to do so.

SicEmBaylor
3/21/2008, 01:22 AM
I would vote McCain as the lesser evil. The man has done much and proven much in his life. Hellery not so much. A POW is more deserving than a coat tail riding, silver spoon born, feminazi.

I admire the man's service a great great deal, but how does that make him any better to be a Commander-in-Chief?

SicEmBaylor
3/21/2008, 01:26 AM
I see you're the type that just skips any intelligent debate and just gets right to the personal attacks. :rolleyes:

Have you even looked at any polling data? McCain has nearly a double digit lead in Florida and Ohio at this point. The more American's learn about BHO, I suspect it will be much, much higher.

Tuba, I've attempted to have a well reasoned debate with you many times but you're version of "well reasoned debate" isn't matching wits -- it's matching the latest bumper sticker slogans.

I'm not sure how anyone who thinks it's witty, funny, and/or intelligent to playoff someone's middle name as a form of commentary on the man's politics can seriously roll their eyes at someone else for personal attacks.

If I wanted to hear your argument then I'd just download the latest RNC press release.

SicEmBaylor
3/21/2008, 01:28 AM
honestly, i don't think a dem can pull colorado. I know Obama won the caucus, but Hillary might hold a better chance since she has better hispanic support.

Colorado has been trending left in recent elections. There are several states on that map that I wouldn't normally consider a Democratic win, but the absolute weakness of the party and its lack of unification behind McCain lead me to believe that it'll be enough (albeit barely) to push Obama into the win column.

CORNholio
3/21/2008, 01:29 AM
I admire the man's service a great great deal, but how does that make him any better to be a Commander-in-Chief?

A man who has been tested by the pits or war garners much more respect than a woman who has never known anything but luxury, and is more capable of leadership.

SicEmBaylor
3/21/2008, 01:32 AM
I'd vote for Zell any day. Ditto for Leiberman (sans Mr. Global Warming).

Zell Miller is absolutely fantastic and I wish to God we had 98 more guys just like him. Miller is decidedly liberal/progressive in his politics, but the man understands the differing constitutional responsibilities of the states v. the Federal government. He was accused more than once on flip-flopping on the issues when he was in the Senate since he opposed programs that were similar to and/or mirrored programs he himself had championed in Georgia. Zell Miller never flip-flopped on many of those issues he just just understood what was appropriate on the state level was not appropriate on the national level.

Lieberman on the other hand is an absolute horrid decision. Why the hell would you ever vote for the guy? You agree with him on one thing and one thing only, the war. You do realize there's a thing called "domestic policy" and on domestic policy he's decidedly liberal, right?

SicEmBaylor
3/21/2008, 01:32 AM
A man who has been tested by the pits or war garners much more respect than a woman who has never known anything but luxury, and is more capable of leadership.

I agree it garners more respect, but how does an accumulation of respect=a better President?

CORNholio
3/21/2008, 01:33 AM
First of all, the electoral college was not designed to be the best means of ensuring every individual vote is of equal weight -- it was designed to give the states power and input on the national level. I couldn't care less about every vote carrying equal weight and personally believe that the expansion of suffrage is one of the greatest evils and threats to the Republic.

My concern with eliminating the Electoral College is the effect it'll have on the delicate balance between the constitutional responsibilities of the states and Federal government. More important than "checks and balances" among the Federal branches, in my opinion, is the ability of the states and Federal government to "check" one another's power. The constitution attempts to delicately balance both vertical and horizontal checks, and unfortunately those vertical checks have been systematically dismantled and eliminated.

People who advocate to dissolution of the electoral college either don't understand or don't care the brilliant but delicate complexity of playing branches and levels of government off on one another.

The Constitution has been shredded enough -- let's not continue to find new ways of continuing to do so.

I don't argue the systematic dismantling of states rights that have gone on for over a century. Greedy federalists have been advocating the dismantle of states rights behind the scenes for 150 years. The electoral college on the other hand has done nothing to preserve the rights of states only to privilege the states who have attracted more population and make the votes of the outspoken in the conservative portions of the country obsolete.

CORNholio
3/21/2008, 01:37 AM
The dismantling of the states rights was the first step towards the dismantling of local liberties and the eventual downfall of this country by greed and authoritative federal regulation.

CORNholio
3/21/2008, 01:41 AM
I agree it garners more respect, but how does an accumulation of respect=a better President?

The man is wiser than hillary. basically. the man has proven his medal and hillary has proven nothing. Why would I hire an idealistic man straight out of college when I can hire a grounded man with 20 years of successful experience and a proven record? Does the man who has lived it not deserve more than the person who talks about it?

CORNholio
3/21/2008, 01:43 AM
Just call it intuition if nothing else. A natural judge of character.

OklahomaTuba
3/21/2008, 10:04 AM
I'm not sure how anyone who thinks it's witty, funny, and/or intelligent to playoff someone's middle name as a form of commentary on the man's politics can seriously roll their eyes at someone else for personal attacks.

Oh no, I used BHO's evil middle name.

And somehow, that = a personal attack on a poster???

:confused:

OklahomaTuba
3/21/2008, 10:11 AM
Lieberman on the other hand is an absolute horrid decision. Why the hell would you ever vote for the guy? You agree with him on one thing and one thing only, the war. You do realize there's a thing called "domestic policy" and on domestic policy he's decidedly liberal, right?

I agree with him on a couple of things. He is not a left-wing liberal at all, but a moderate, which is why the extremist left HATES him.

He is very pro-Religous liberty, which is counter to the left's vision of enforced state sponsored humanism and censorship of Judeo-Christian thought and heritage.

But his stance on national security is the primary reason I would ever vote for him for anything. That is the #1 issue in my mind.

RUSH LIMBAUGH is my clone!
3/21/2008, 10:25 AM
IMO, we are going to get a democrat for president. I think Obama would bring down the USA the fastest of all 3 people left running, and am delighted that somebody has been able to bring his likely racism to the forefront. We can likey get through 4 yrs of Hillary with some of the greatness of America intact. Not so much with Obama. Hillary, you go, girl!

sooner_born_1960
11/7/2012, 05:40 PM
Good call, Sicem.