NCAA Tourney and OU's Chances...

[Readyfor8]

Ok so I have been predicting 6 teams from the BigXII in the tourney since midseason, and I don't see any reason to change this. Here is my take on who is taken from the BigXII for the Big Dance.

Texas is in, no doubt, and probably a number 1 seed.

Kansas is in, no doubt, and probably a number 2 seed. From here on it gets murky.

Kansas St. is probably in, they won at home vs. Pitt and Cal, but they had a lackluster OOC add to that the fact that they are currently 4-6 over their last 10 and who knows, however they are guaranteed a .500 conference record, and they have a 1 and done player in Beasley, so they will probably be picked for the tourney at around a 5-7 seed.

Baylor is probably in the tourney, they won great games at Notre Dame and at USC in their OOC. On the other hand they have a 4-6 mark over their last 10 games as well, but it won't hurt them that bad. What will hurt them is the name of their school. I still see them as a 5-6 seed depending on where they finish and how much noise they make in the BigXII tourney.

Oklahoma State is out, there is not conceivable way for them to make a run to the tourney without winning the BigXII tourney. A terrible OOC, and only one quality win vs. Kansas. Even if they win at Texas and they won't there is no over looking the fact that they play like crap away from home. We have the tie breaker because they are probably going to finish 4-6 in the south unless we beat them tomorrow in stillwater and they will finish 3-7. Do they make a NIT bid is a far more worthy question.

Texas A&M is in but not over OU, mark my words there is are only two things they have over OU, and that is a win over Texas, and bigger preseason hype. They have a lower RPI and will have a lower RPI for the rest of the season. A nice OOC, and a good RPI will get them in to the tourney, probably as a 9 seed.

Texas Tech is out, again no way they take the Raiders over OU, again a worse RPI hurts them badly and a single good win in OOC (Gonzaga) leaves them praying for an NIT berth. Add to that the demolishing that Kansas put on them and they are out. If they had beat Stanford at home in December, they would be a more serious threat.

Oklahoma is in, and they are the 5th team to be taken for the tourney. Look at our RPI (30) look at our out of conference wins West Virginia, Gonzaga, and Arkansas, and look at an 8-8 conference record and the 5th seed in the BigXII tourney. That makes us all but a lock in my book, and I predict an 8 seed (maybe a rematch vs. Ark)...

If A&M lights up the BigXII tourney, they may go before us, but because Syracuse muffed that win on Saturday it all but locked it for the Sooners. What team are they going to take over us seriously? If they take 6 from the conference and we aren't one of those I'll eat my hat, I don't have a hat but you get my point.

[okienole3]

No way Baylor is a 5 or 6 seed. Assuming they don't lose out, which is possible, they will be a 8 or 9 seed like OU.

[S.PadreIsl.Sooner]

If the Sooners lose the next 2 and then 1 and done in the Big XII, what then? With their injuries nothing is guaranteed.

They need to focus on one thing only. OSU on Wednesday night. Then focus on Mizzou on Saturday. Worry about something else and they could easily lose both.

[starrca23]

Also don't forget that if there are some upsets in the conference tourneys that could take away at large bids...OU needs 2 or 3 more wins.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

A&M's last 2 games are @Bay and KU. Lose both of those, which I think is likely at this point and they are 7-9 and as low as a 9 seed in the Big 12 tourney not to mention they would have lost 6 of their last 7 games. Their current RPI is 46. Their SOS is 72, compared to OU which is 8. I think A&M is out unless they win at least one and maybe both of their remaining games.

I think Baylor is in unless they lose out from here.

KSU is probably in if they beat Colo at home because their SOS is 13 but they have on 16 D-I wins this year right now so they may sweat it too.

Agree that OSU can't make the tourney as an at-large but I do have to give them credit that they have come from probably not even being into the NIT to where they probably could come within the last 6-10 or so teams to miss the tourney.

[boomersooner82]

Baylor is probably in the tourney, they won great games at Notre Dame and at USC in their OOC. On the other hand they have a 4-6 mark over their last 10 games as well, but it won't hurt them that bad. What will hurt them is the name of their school. I still see them as a 5-6 seed depending on where they finish and how much noise they make in the BigXII tourney.


Baylor didn't win AT Notre Dame, it was a neutral site (tournament in Virgin Islands). Still a big victory for them. I wouldn't define the win over USC (South Carolina, not SoCal) as "great" though considering they're a sub-.500 team.

[MRNOTDUCKS]

I don't think A&M is going to make it. We got a lot of bad press after we stunk it up in Norman. I'm sure you would agree that OU is decent team, but you aren't a dominant one. We aren't either. I'd say we are pretty even in terms of talent. And when we play, Blake Griffin is the best player on the court. Still, we had no excuse for losing to you by 27 points.

And that kind of bad press is going to stick in the minds of the selection committee.

[OUSKINS]

Yes, of the 6 B12 teams in the at-large mix, A+M is by far in the most danger. The good news for OU is the sweep over Baylor. If Baylor goes 9-7 and we go 8-8, it won't really matter. The committee would favor us for sweeping them and having a better RPI. OU is in good shape as far as the tourney goes. The only way we blow it is to lose to Mizzou. If we lose the next two, then we'd really need to do some work in the B12 tourney to get in.

[Collier11]

Also don't forget that if there are some upsets in the conference tourneys that could take away at large bids...OU needs 2 or 3 more wins.

W/O Blake, Ou only needs 1 more win, maybe 2

[crawfish]

I think we're in. 8 wins over RPI top 50, plus our high RPI and SOS...and add to that the "injury factor", and we'll be looked at very favorably.

At this point I'd say we're a 9-10 seed. I'm not sure winning buys us much...an 8 or 7? Either way we're in the same bracket.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I think we're in. 8 wins over RPI top 50, plus our high RPI and SOS...and add to that the "injury factor", and we'll be looked at very favorably.

At this point I'd say we're a 9-10 seed. I'm not sure winning buys us much...an 8 or 7? Either way we're in the same bracket.

If the season ended today we would be solidly in...but..

I wouldn't go as far as saying OU is a lock at this point. If we were to lose our last 2 games and then lose a first round Big 12 tourney game I wouldn't say it is impossible that we get in but it would be pretty unlikely. The ONLY reason I see it possible is because of our non-conf profile.

If we lose 2 games we are anywhere from a 6 seed to a 9 seed in the Big 12 tourney it appears.

If we lost 2 games and then won a first round game I think our chances would be about 50/50, we would at least have another win over a decent team but we would probably sweat it all the way.

If we beat MU at home I think we are then a lock.

I think if we are in the tourney at all we will be no lower than a 10-seed because of our RPI and could be an 8 or 9. We probably need to win 3 games to move up in that 6-7 seed area.

[Readyfor8]

Lets say we lose our last two, which I don't think will happen. I do think we lose tomorrow night, but I think Senior Night for Longar Longar will be a huge thing, and Mizzou doesn't play well on the road.

But lets say we lose two, and A&M loses out. Are you saying they won't take 5 teams from the second toughest league in the nation? And if they take 5 who are they going to take over us? Not OSU and not A&M...

It's not that we are as good as the top of the league, its that we are far better than the bottom of the league...

[Readyfor8]

Baylor didn't win AT Notre Dame, it was a neutral site (tournament in Virgin Islands). Still a big victory for them. I wouldn't define the win over USC (South Carolina, not SoCal) as "great" though considering they're a sub-.500 team.

USC was ranked at the time I believe, and they are still a good OOC win because they are from the Pac10... As for Baylor I didn't realize it was a tournament, mostly because I looked at the ESPN schedule results on the link below and it said @...

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/clubhouse?teamId=239

Sue me but Baylor has a higher conference record and will finish as a higher seed in the conference so they will get consideration before OU does...

[sooner518]

USC was ranked at the time I believe, and they are still a good OOC win because they are from the Pac10...

The USC that Baylor played was South Carolina, who is currently 13-15. Not Southern Cal.

Try again

[Readyfor8]

The USC that Baylor played was South Carolina, who is currently 13-15. Not Southern Cal.

Try again

Ladies and gentlemen, Magellan... Great job with the geography...

Well let me bow down and kiss your ***, you jackass. I guess you got me on that one. Try solving world hunger next...

[Collier11]

Ladies and gentlemen, Magellan... Great job with the geography...

Well let me bow down and kiss your ***, you jackass. I guess you got me on that one. Try solving world hunger next...


sensitive much? I think your missing the point that you were trying to make usc as a good win when it wasnt even usc, it was s.car who sucks

[birddog]

:rolleyes:

is that really necessary?

[soonermix]

we should probably shoot for the ol' 12 seed. they always upset somebody in the big dance.

[Collier11]

Sue me but Baylor has a higher conference record and will finish as a higher seed in the conference so they will get consideration before OU does...

Ou beat baylor twice, has a higher RPI and will only finish 1 game out of Baylor worst case I would imagine...

[SleestakSooner]

Baylor could easily lose to Tech in Lubbock and if aTm can pull their heads out who knows how that game in Waco will turn out. Could go ten OT's this time.

OU swept both Tech and BU this season while only being swept by one team from the south. If the Sooners were all healthy I would have been optomistic about them beating the orange cool-aide drinking clan in Stoolwater.

W/O Blake I will cross my fingers and hope OU wins at least one of their regular season games, and I believe if they can they will go to the big dance no matter what.

Hopefully Taylor will step up again in his brother's absence and he and Longar will not get into foul trouble.

If the Sooners do lose the last two games then they may need to win two in the conference tourney to make the big dance. If they lose all their remaining games and go out in the first round of the big xii then NIT here we come.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I think after winning in Stillwater we are IN. Anything else from here on in improves our seed. Beat MU on Sat and we should be the 4th seed in the Big 12 tourney.

[Boomer.....]

I think after winning in Stillwater we are IN. Anything else from here on in improves our seed. Beat MU on Sat and we should be the 4th seed in the Big 12 tourney.

I agree. Amazing that this team could get a bye in the Big 12 tournament.

[Collier11]

I think after winning in Stillwater we are IN. Anything else from here on in improves our seed. Beat MU on Sat and we should be the 4th seed in the Big 12 tourney.

No thinking about it, we are IN solidly. If we beat mizzou and get a break or two we could get a 1st rd bye which would be awesome.

[Collier11]

Correct me if im wrong, but dont we hold the tie-breaker over A&M and Baylor?

We have 7 wins against south teams
A&M has 5
Baylor has 3

So if we win saturday the worst we can get is 4th, is this correct?

[cheezyq]

Yes.