RPI/Bracketology Updates

[OUSKINS]

Figured we could use a thread to track this stuff.....

Last year, the top 29 teams in the RPI all made the Big Dance, as did 34 of the top 35. From 35 through 50, it was kind of hit and miss. So, it appears the key is cracking that top 35.

Joe Lunardi's ESPN Bracketology is less scientific and more opinion based, however, he has been very good in the past when it comes to predicting the tournament.

As of today, we are #37 in the RPI.

Interestingly enough....two weeks ago Lunardi had us a 6 seed. After the KSU loss, he dropped us to a 9 seed.

Then, after the KU loss and TT win, he dropped us out of the tourney altogether. As a matter of fact, he has us right now as the 5th team out.

But that RPI is key...if we can hold pretty steady in that spot until Blake gets back, we'll be looking pretty good.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Figured we could use a thread to track this stuff.....

Last year, the top 29 teams in the RPI all made the Big Dance, as did 34 of the top 35. From 35 through 50, it was kind of hit and miss. So, it appears the key is cracking that top 35.

Joe Lunardi's ESPN Bracketology is less scientific and more opinion based, however, he has been very good in the past when it comes to predicting the tournament.

As of today, we are #37 in the RPI.

Interestingly enough....two weeks ago Lunardi had us a 6 seed. After the KSU loss, he dropped us to a 9 seed.

Then, after the KU loss and TT win, he dropped us out of the tourney altogether. As a matter of fact, he has us right now as the 5th team out.

But that RPI is key...if we can hold pretty steady in that spot until Blake gets back, we'll be looking pretty good.

Weird. On college gameday on Sat morning he had OU as the 4th team IN the tourney. You are saying we beat TT and then fell?

[OUSKINS]

Weird. On college gameday on Sat morning he had OU as the 4th team IN the tourney. You are saying we beat TT and then fell?

Yep....

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/bracketology

[tommieharris91]

I think this is because other teams had upset wins and helped themselves more than we did with the tceh win.

Jerry Palm's bracket has OU as a 10 seed. But, he also has ATM as his last team in.

[OUSKINS]

Moved up to the magic #35 in the RPI. 35 and higher is basically a lock for the Dance.

[OUSKINS]

Through Saturday, we are now #28 in the RPI.

[King Crimson]

a key stat working for us is that we are 4-4 against rpi top 50 teams. that's a big stat come selection time (record versus rpi top 50).

[tommieharris91]

A 5-3 road/neutral record also looks good.

[Vegas Sooner]

If we take care of our home games and get it done in the State of texas we will be fine.

[King Crimson]

a key stat working for us is that we are 4-4 against rpi top 50 teams. that's a big stat come selection time (record versus rpi top 50).

Seth Davis just lauded Oregon's *3 wins* against top 50 rpi at halftime of the Mich-Mich State game citing them as more worthy of NCAA consideration than ASU (i think)......we've got 4.

[TopDawg]

Stupid Ed Hightower hurt our RPI by not calling goaltending at the end of that WVU/Georgetown game.

[OUSKINS]

Lunardi now has 6 teams in from the Big 12, with OU a #8 seed playing Purdue in the 1st round. Winner would get Memphis :)

[OUSKINS]

Stupid Ed Hightower hurt our RPI by not calling goaltending at the end of that WVU/Georgetown game.

Gotta say, I can't blame Hightower for that one. In super slow-motion it was a 50/50 call. That ball may have JUST started on it's way down, but even in slow-mo it was hard to tell. At game speed, it was obviously that much tougher.

In that situation, I think you err on the side of letting players determine the game. Ewing Jr. made an awesome play on the ball.

[SleestakSooner]

the new polls are out and it is as if we didn't play at all, much less win a game against a ranked team on the road. Baylor is still showing as ranked 25th and the Sooners are showing up at #35 in the AP and not even one vote from the coaches at this point.

We really need a convincing win on national television to garner a few votes!

BOOMER!

[TopDawg]

Gotta say, I can't blame Hightower for that one. In super slow-motion it was a 50/50 call. That ball may have JUST started on it's way down, but even in slow-mo it was hard to tell. At game speed, it was obviously that much tougher.

In that situation, I think you err on the side of letting players determine the game. Ewing Jr. made an awesome play on the ball.

You must not understand. You ALWAYS blame Hightower.

[GrapevineSooner]

I knew there was a conspiracy against us. ;)

[SleestakSooner]

That Ed Hightower sure can hold a grudge! Billy Tubbs is loooong gone Ed, give us a break! ;)

[TopDawg]

Is there only one RPI or are there several different versions? I thought there was only one, but I'm curious because if there is only one I'm surprised nobody has mentioned that we are currently 5 spots ahead of Indiana (http://www.kenpom.com/rpi.php)*.

Heh heh heh



*A truly great team that will surely be successful.

[SleestakSooner]

OU is basically back to where they were before losing to KU & KSU, get wins in the next two games and I guarantee the Sooners are ranked in at least one poll.

[Wildcat0206]

we're still up at a 6 seed at Bracketography (http://www.bracketography.com/)

playing Clemson in the first round

[Salt City Sooner]

A possible Drew Lavender matchup in round 2. Oh, the irony......

[TopDawg]

A possible Drew Lavender matchup in round 2. Oh, the irony......

It'd be better if they went up against Indiana.

[SleestakSooner]

oSuck is soooo bad that even after beating them on national tv OU actually dropped a bit in the RPI and Sagarin ratings.

You see, the team you beat needs to be in the top 100 for most computers to even acknowledge the win!

POOOR AGGIES!

[NormanPride]

oSuck is soooo bad that even after beating them on national tv OU actually dropped a bit in the RPI and Sagarin ratings.

You see, the team you beat needs to be in the top 100 from most computers to even acknowledge the win!

POOOR AGGIES!

I bet you just made their day, actually. "We hurt OU by losing! WOO ORANGE POWAH!"

[Collier11]

It'd be better if they went up against Indiana.


we all know kelvin wont make it out of the 1st rd :eek:

[OUSKINS]

With the A+M loss, we fell to #31 in the RPI. Not a far fall at all, and still in that "lock" range for the NCAA Tourney. Wednesday's game against UT is huge. Horns are #12 in the RPI.

[OUSKINS]

Bracketology update: Slipped to a #10 seed. Lunardi has us playing Pitt in round 1 at this point.

[Collier11]

Pitt is a good matchup for us I think

[Wildcat0206]

6 seed in the East at Bracketography (http://www.bracketography.com) playing Cal

[OUSKINS]

Big drop: Fell to #38 in the RPI with the latest loss.

With the past two losses, we've gone from solidly in to probably just on the outside of the bubble. Need to build wins with the softer schedule coming up.

[Newbomb Turk]

If we don't get Longar back, we won't have to worry about this.

zero depth.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

It sure looks to me like:

9-7 IN
7-9 OUT

8-8 Square on the bubble...debatable whether we are in or out.



We are 3-4 now so I think the minimum required to get is is 5-4 down the stretch with probably a first round Big 12 win.

Winning all home games from here only gets us 4 wins. @Colo and @Neb are our most likely chances for road wins. We really could use a W tommorrow.

Without Longar it is going to be tough.

[OUSKINS]

Odd. Bracketlogoy got updated today and we moved UP in the seeding. He now has us as a #6 playing Dayton.

I think our SOS is really going to help. One of the toughest schedules in the nation. Lunardi knows his stuff, so this is encouraging.

[sooner518]

This is very odd. Andy Katz sat in on the NCAA official mock brackets and they project us as a #6 seed. I love OU just as much as anyone, but Im not that much of a sunshine pumper!!

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=3236122

[OUSKINS]

This is very odd. Andy Katz sat in on the NCAA official mock brackets and they project us as a #6 seed. I love OU just as much as anyone, but Im not that much of a sunshine pumper!!

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/columns/story?columnist=katz_andy&id=3236122

Yeah, I posted that in another thread-- but it doesn't appear to be sunshine pumping at this point. Remember, they don't really watch that many of our games-- they don't really care that our guards aren't good. They don't really care that we aren't deep. All the committee cares about is our body of work-- and on paper, it's pretty impressive. They love the RPI and we rank well in all of those important RPI categories-- AND we're the only team worth mentioning that has played 10 games against the RPI top 50. I think as far the selection folks are concerned-- we ALREADY have enough quality wins-- now we just need to avoid any bad losses.

[Collier11]

I think we are in as of now, look at what Indiana is projected as and they have exactly Zero Top 50 wins according to Bilas

[OUSKINS]

Dropped to #48 in the RPI after the CU loss. If we drop out of the top 50, that will spell doom for our hopes. I have a feeling we will be on the "last four out" list when Bracketology comes out. Looking at all projections, I think a 5-3 conference finish will get us in the Dance, but with yesterday's performance fresh on my mind, it's hard to see us doing any better than 1-7.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Dropped to #48 in the RPI after the CU loss. If we drop out of the top 50, that will spell doom for our hopes. I have a feeling we will be on the "last four out" list when Bracketology comes out. Looking at all projections, I think a 5-3 conference finish will get us in the Dance, but with yesterday's performance fresh on my mind, it's hard to see us doing any better than 1-7.

I still think 8-8 is the minimum number. We get that and our RPI will probably be plenty high enough and we will have a good # of quality wins.

I think we probably have to win out at home including A&M and we have to find at least one road win. I can see us getting the home wins. Getting that road win is going to be problematic though unless Longar makes some miraculous recovery.

[Collier11]

I still think 8-8 is the minimum number. We get that and our RPI will probably be plenty high enough and we will have a good # of quality wins.

I think we probably have to win out at home including A&M and we have to find at least one road win. I can see us getting the home wins. Getting that road win is going to be problematic though unless Longar makes some miraculous recovery.


Exactly, weve got to get to 8 wins in conference, winning a game in the conf tourney would seal it IMO

[sooner518]

Stewart Mandel has us as a 9 seed. amazingly
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/stewart_mandel/02/11/bubble.watch/index.html?eref=T1

[Collier11]

You say amazingly but we have wins over

17-5 Arkansas who is just out of 1st place in the SEC
#18 Gonzaga who is now 18-6 and in 1st place again in their conf
#23 WVU who is 16-7
#25 Baylor who is currently 17-5

and close losses to

#1 Memphis by 10
USC who was #22 at the time by 11
K state who is currently 17-5 by 2 pts
#12 Texas by 10
#22 A&M by 8

The point is that when it comes down to it, the panel is going to see that we played a tough schedule, we had some big wins and played some really good teams close and that will look good compared to some teams who may not have beaten anyone.

That being said, we still need to get to 8 conf wins IMO

[skycat]

I think you need at least 9 conference wins.

I don't think those close losses mean that much.

You have some good wins, but no "signature win", and the CU and SFA losses are pretty bad.

[Collier11]

I think you need at least 9 conference wins.

I don't think those close losses mean that much.

You have some good wins, but no "signature win", and the CU and SFA losses are pretty bad.


true and though SFA is in a bad conf, they are 19-3 so that isnt as bad as it may seem

[OUSKINS]

Not just Mandel....Lunardi also has us still in, although we drop to a #9 seed. Bracketlogoy is very accurate, and if they have us still in the 8-9 range, then I can pretty much guarantee you that a 5-3 finish down the stretch gets us in-- as a matter of fact, I had that same argument with thew guys on the Animal this afternoon (I called in). They disagreed, but the numbers are there.

[OUSKINS]

Not just Mandel....Lunardi also has us still in, although we drop to a #9 seed. Bracketlogoy is very accurate, and if they have us still in the 8-9 range, then I can pretty much guarantee you that a 5-3 finish down the stretch gets us in-- as a matter of fact, I had that same argument with thew guys on the Animal this afternoon (I called in). They disagreed, but the numbers are there.

[King Crimson]

i'll be elated if we close out 5-3.

tough breaks this year; still, making the tournament i'd put at a less than 50% right now but would be a heck of an accomplishment. and i think the reasonable goal of the team when the year started.

[OKC-SLC]

what's more important is that despite the injuries, loss of Clark, and some bad losses (don't forget the Big Monday beatdown by KU in front of God and everybody--I know, Blake was hurt, but that was a 30 point beatdown) -- we are still in a position to play ourselves into the tournament.

[King Crimson]

what's more important is that despite the injuries, loss of Clark, and some bad losses (don't forget the Big Monday beatdown by KU in front of God and everybody--I know, Blake was hurt, but that was a 30 point beatdown) -- we are still in a position to play ourselves into the tournament.

we were down 30 in the first half. Kansas, FWIW, ain't the same killers right now they were then.

they may get it back, but they look pretty human right now. great team, but not the killers they were.

[GottaHavePride]

Not just Mandel....Lunardi also has us still in, although we drop to a #9 seed. Bracketlogoy is very accurate, and if they have us still in the 8-9 range, then I can pretty much guarantee you that a 5-3 finish down the stretch gets us in-- as a matter of fact, I had that same argument with thew guys on the Animal this afternoon (I called in). They disagreed, but the numbers are there.

Bracketologoy - Basketball analysis for non-Hebrews.

[OKC-SLC]

we were down 30 in the first half. Kansas, FWIW, ain't the same killers right now they were then.

they may get it back, but they look pretty human right now. great team, but not the killers they were.
I actually went to that game--free tickets via the dean of the law school (I work with her husband)--and my first game at AFH. Great venue.

I agree; KU was playing out of their mind at that time, not only during that game.

Unless this team gets an unexpected win along the way, I'm not sure people will be able to overlook some of our losses. Think of it this way--if you're looking to find a reason to leave OU out of the NCAA, exhibits A, B, and C are quite damning. That said, I'm not sure this team is done quite yet. We'll see what Capel can do; something tells me he's gonna get a stellar game or two out of these guys, and I sure hope it happens at the right time.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

I actually went to that game--free tickets via the dean of the law school (I work with her husband)--and my first game at AFH. Great venue.

I agree; KU was playing out of their mind at that time, not only during that game.

Unless this team gets an unexpected win along the way, I'm not sure people will be able to overlook some of our losses. Think of it this way--if you're looking to find a reason to leave OU out of the NCAA, exhibits A, B, and C are quite damning. That said, I'm not sure this team is done quite yet. We'll see what Capel can do; something tells me he's gonna get a stellar game or two out of these guys, and I sure hope it happens at the right time.

Even as bad as our outside shooting has been of late there is likely to be 1-2 of those games where we hit a bunch of 3s. Ideally it would be in a game where they are needed like a road game and not in a home game against a team like ISU or MU where we should win anyway.

[Wildcat0206]

10 seed in West at Bracketography (http://www.bracketography.com/)

in Anaheim playing Vandy then UCLA

[OUSKINS]

After the ISU win, we've made a small RPI jump to #44

[soonervegas]

The goal should be:

hold serve at home over the last 3

spilt last 4 road games (OSU, Tech, and NU are all winable) UT is not

Do that and we finish 9-7 in conference. It will take that and can be done in Longar plays.

[cheezyq]

I think you need at least 9 conference wins.

I don't think those close losses mean that much.

You have some good wins, but no "signature win", and the CU and SFA losses are pretty bad.

Wrong. We need 8 wins in conference. To the tourney selection committee, what matters to them the most (besides wins, obviously) are wins on neutral sites and on the road, and wins against good out of conference teams. Blowout losses also play a factor. Our only blowout loss was at KU when we lost Blake Griffin. If we win 8 games in the conference and win our first conference tourney game, we're in as a 9/10 seed or so. Anything better should push us into the 7-8 range.

Conference records don't matter as much. You guys had a 10-6 conference season last year, and didn't get in because of your non-conference schedule.

"Signature wins" don't matter as much as you think. Especially "signature wins" that are in-conference. The NCAA selection committee wants consistent wins and wins on the road. You'll get in because of the reputation of your freshmen and your win/loss record (assuming you stop losing to bad teams), but even if you're ranked in the top 20 you'll probably end up as a 6/7 seed because of your inconsistency, IMO.

[skycat]

"Signature wins" don't matter as much as you think. Especially "signature wins" that are in-conference.

Tell that to Tech last year.

[OUSKINS]

Not to stray too far off-topic here, but KSU is really interesting to me right now: IMO, they are THE team I'd want to play as an underdog and THE team I would NOT want to play as the favorite. Basketball is 5 on 5 and in an individual game, depth doesn't matter all that much. Depth helps over time, but in KSU's case, if Beasley and Walker are rolling, there isn't a "deep" team in the country that can stop them. I have NO doubt KSU is fully capable of beating a team like Memphis, Duke, UNC, etc... in a one-game situation. Very, very scary team because of what they have at the top.

But their inability to punish lesser teams would really bother me if I were a KSU fan. You can't win them all, but I'd be concerned about how many games KSU has lost to teams with inferior talent this year. If I'm a 11-12 seed playing KSU in the 1st round, I'm feeling pretty confident because there are definite signs that KSU can be had.

I don't think there is a team in the nation that will enter the tourney with more uspside vs. downside than KSU. I could honestly see them winning the national title (seriously) and I can honestly see them losing in the 1st round.

[skycat]

This thread isn't about K-State, but the basic story is:

Very good home team. Check it out. Lesser teams are truly punished in Manhattan, with the early exception of Oregon. The Cats are near the top of national offensive and defensive efficiency rankings, primarily do to their play at home.

Average to lousy road team. Even against OU (by far K-State's best road win), K-State played incredibly lousy (by their standards) defense.

It seems all of the freshman really feed off the home crowd, and give better effort, especially defensively, at home. Which doesn't bode to well come tourney time. :(

Hopefully by tournament time all of the guys are healthy and/or emotionally ready (Stewart understandably looked like a shadow of himself Wednesday, and K-State was missing two other guys who had started.) There haven't been too many teams in NCAA history who have started a player as good as Beasley at the same time that they've started a player as pedestrian as Chris Meriwether, like the Cats did in Lubbock. But that doesn't excuse the poor defense played by multiple guys for the first 35 minutes of the game.

[OUSKINS]

Bracketology was updated today....

we're in as a #9 seed (playing Arizona).

What this tells me is that as of right now, OU is solidly in the tournament--not even on the bubble. If we go 8-8 in the Big 12 we're a lock.

[Collier11]

If we can split the road games (@tech, @ okie st, @ tex, @ nebbish) and win against mizzou and either A&m or Baylor at home, we are in even with a 1st rd exit in the Big 12 IMO...that puts us at 8-8 and 20-11 with 4 or 5 Top 25 wins. That Colorado loss really hurts cus at 9-7 and 21-10 we would have been alot closer to 100% IN cus we wouldnt have any bad losses other than the KU blowout and SFA, even so I think we are good if we can go 4-3 down the stretch. 5-2 would be great

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Even as bad as our outside shooting has been of late there is likely to be 1-2 of those games where we hit a bunch of 3s. Ideally it would be in a game where they are needed like a road game and not in a home game against a team like ISU or MU where we should win anyway.

I think today was one of those games. It probably wasn't lights out but it was light years better than 4-26.

[Salt City Sooner]

It was 9-21 (including 6-11 by AJ), which is 43%. When we get anything resembling that along with an agressive Crocker, OU is a tough out.

[OUSKINS]

After the win at Tech, we now have gone back up to #34 in the RPI-- a very quick jump from where we fell after the CU loss.

Things looking very good for our tourney chances right now. One oddity-- if we beat Baylor on Tuesday, it may come close to knocking them out of the RPI top 50, which then means we LOSE to RPI top 50 wins. In other words, root for Baylor AFTER our game on Tuesday :)

[sooner518]

After the win at Tech, we now have gone back up to #34 in the RPI-- a very quick jump from where we fell after the CU loss.

Things looking very good for our tourney chances right now. One oddity-- if we beat Baylor on Tuesday, it may come close to knocking them out of the RPI top 50, which then means we LOSE to RPI top 50 wins. In other words, root for Baylor AFTER our game on Tuesday :)

Im having flashbacks to BCS football season:

"After we beat Texas, we want them to win out......"

[SleestakSooner]

I don't consider the CU loss on the road to be our worst loss of the season. ANY road game in the Big XII is a possible loss... SFA loss at home is by far our worst game IMO. Even if they are leading their conference, OU should have been able to handle them in Lloyd Noble.

Sooners need to keep winning at home and possibly find one more road win... in Stoolwater would be nice! :)

[ouradu]

... In other words, root for Baylor AFTER our game on Tuesday :)
Except that we are competing with Baylor in the standings :D

[skycat]

I don't think that Baylor will end up top 50.

[Wildcat0206]

8 seed in the East at Bracketography (http://www.bracketography.com/)

playing Rhode Island then Tennessee

[King Crimson]

I don't consider the CU loss on the road to be our worst loss of the season. ANY road game in the Big XII is a possible loss... SFA loss at home is by far our worst game IMO. Even if they are leading their conference, OU should have been able to handle them in Lloyd Noble.

Sooners need to keep winning at home and possibly find one more road win... in Stoolwater would be nice! :)

i do. the "committee" sees that as an rpi 100-150 loss. CU sucks.

SFA has an rpi better than half the Big XII. 58.

the NCAA and the networks love the gutty mid-major. they don't love the suckass Power Conference bottom-feeder. they can't sell that. don't underestimate the networks in selling the tournament and who gets in.

it's all in the story line.

[OUSKINS]

9 Seed in Bracketology playing Pitt in round 1...then Tennessee.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

i do. the "committee" sees that as an rpi 100-150 loss. CU sucks.

SFA has an rpi better than half the Big XII. 58.

the NCAA and the networks love the gutty mid-major. they don't love the suckass Power Conference bottom-feeder. they can't sell that. don't underestimate the networks in selling the tournament and who gets in.

it's all in the story line.

It might not be something that the selection committee looks at specifically but at the moment SFA is among the "others getting votes" in the poll. They are about 30th. Should they keep winning they will likely crack the top 25 in the next couple weeks. I'm not saying it wasn't a game that we should have won at home but it isn't nearly as bad as losing to say ISU, Neb, Colo or MU at home right now. So I would say while anyone can win in conference at home that losing to CU is probably our worst loss.

It goes a long way toward explaining why that we are probably in the NCAA tourney even if we finish with an 8-8 record. 3 of our losses are to teams in the top 7 and 6 losses to the top 30 (if you go by AP poll)

[SleestakSooner]

I still feel a home loss to a mid-major team is worse than a road loss to a conference foe. I realize that CU is a worse team and that a double digit loss to them anywhere looks bad. But the weight of losing at home in the NCAA's eyes has always been heavier than a road loss.

Either way they were both awful games on the Sooners part. So far after each ugly loss they have rebounded nicely.

After the way Baylor lost at home to texas last weekend, this game tonight will probably be a statement game for them, and I expect them to come out to prove a point... that Bruce is not a complete idiot for one.

Hopefully the good shooting that the guards have displayed lately will continue, also a strong crowd pressence would be nice!

[Collier11]

also a strong crowd pressence would be nice!

Dont push it!! :eek: ;)

[Collier11]

Alright guys, as of right now we are a solid IN IMHO...we now have @tex, @pukie, @neb and home against A&M and Mizzou. Based off of how we are playing I say worst case we still end up 8-8 in conf. We win at home both games I think, we should win at Nebraska so if we can pull off a win in one of our other two road games we are 10-6 and 22-9. Lets keep it going and win out at home with a win at Neb and we are 9-7.

Ok, so I just covered every scenario and probably didnt make any sense but I see 9-7 and 21-10 as my main point.

[OUSKINS]

Up to #29 in RPI following the Baylor win. That is a very good number and if we hover around here until selection Sunday, we won't have to sweat it out at all.

We can basically punch our ticket to the Dance with a win in Austin on Saturday. Good news is that a loss won't hurt us, as long as we bounce back and win the games we should.

Also...Baylor is still solidly in the top 50, which is good for us as well.

[NormanPride]

What are the odds we beat Texas in Asstin? :(

[Boomer.....]

Probably not very good, but you never know.

[King Crimson]

http://kenpom.com/rpi.php

rpi 29. i'd guess we end up in the mid 30's. 5-6 against top 50.

[Collier11]

What are the odds we beat Texas in Asstin? :(


its tough to win on the road but we controlled the game in Norman before we fell apart with about 10 or so minutes left...we have a shot cus of our bigs

[jdsooner]

CBS Sportsline projects us as a number 7 seed after the Baylor game.

http://www.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/10639108

[OUSKINS]

2-22-08 UPDATE:

#29 in the RPI
#7 seed in Bracketologoy

[ouradu]

One thing I like about our resume is there are only 8 teams that have more wins against the RPI top 50 than we do. Granted we're 5-7, but that's pretty big. It's our success against quality teams that makes me confident that if we finish 8-8 we're in.

[Eielson]

2nd Round- XAVIER!
3rd Round- BUTLER!

ELITE EIGHT!

[MI Sooner]

Xavier is really good.

[OUSKINS]

As expected, the loss in Austin didn't hurt us at all. Actually, we went up a spot according to the source I use.

OU is at #28 in the RPI. That is the third highest RPI in the Big 12. A few other notes.....SFA is now in the RPI top 50 (not a bad team at all).......Texas Tech is now at #55.

The Nebraska game is huge for us. Right now, we're still in. No doubt. A loss in Lincoln and we go straight to the bubble....we'd be really sweating out the last three games.

[Boomer.....]

I'm wondering if the whole "a Big 12 team with an 8-8 or worse record has never made the tournament" holds true. Hopefully we can at least win 2 of the next 4 games and end up 8-8. If that happens, will we be the first team to do it because of our out of conference schedule?

[OUSKINS]

I'm wondering if the whole "a Big 12 team with an 8-8 or worse record has never made the tournament" holds true. Hopefully we can at least win 2 of the next 4 games and end up 8-8. If that happens, will we be the first team to do it because of our out of conference schedule?

The projections look good for OU at 8-8, not really for anyone else in the conference.

OU is #28 in the RPI right now. If we go 2-2 the rest of the way (depending on who we beat) we are most likely looking at an RPI in the mid 30's. Last year, 34 of the top 35 teams in the RPI made it. If we go 2-2, that puts us at 21-11 to end the regular season. I think we would definitely need to win the first game in the B12 tourney...if we did that, I think we'd be in, but probably sweating it out on selection Sunday.

3-1 gets us in NO DOUBT, regardless of who we beat and/or how we do in the B12 tourney.

[Boomer.....]

You know what I don't get. During the UT game they showed the Big 12 team with chances to get into the tournament. Kansas, Texas, K-State, and A&M were in and OU and Baylor were on the bubble. Next to the teams they had the RPI rating. OU was in the upper 20's and was on the bubble while K-State and A&M were in the 40's and in the tournament. How is that? Doesn't the RPI reflect the record, opponents, etc.? If all the RPI does is take away the "homer" votes, why doesn't the NCAA just use the RPI system instead of the polls?

[OUSKINS]

The RPI is a system that weighs heavily on strength of schedule. It is a useful tool to help determine if one team's 21-10 record is actually better than another's 24-7 record. Basically, it takes your winning % and the winning % of your opponent's and THEIR opponent's and compiles a number.

The guys doing the broadcast on Saturday were morons. Polls/rankings mean virtually nothing.

[Boomer.....]

n/m

[birddog]

The guys doing the broadcast on Saturday were morons. Polls/rankings mean virtually nothing.

it's either moran, or maroon....moran. :D

we're going to have a tough time in lincoln. i can't remember the last time we won there. i know in calvin's lst season we lost at the buzzer. :(

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

My take on the whole RPI, overall record, conference record, etc is that it gives the tournament selection committee an excuse to include a team in the field or to exclude a team from the field.

If a team is say 19-14 for example and 9-7 in conference play with an RPI of 40 one guy can say the RPI of 40 and good wins X and X are enough to get in. Another person says they are only 9-7 in the league and they lost 4 of their last 6 games and uses that as a justification to leave them out.

One thing I would not get too hung up on is simple conference records. I don't think the tournament selection committee says this team that is 9-7 and 18-14 overall should get in the tourney ahead of a team that is 8-8 and 21-12. I hear often how a conference may only be a 4 bid league or a 5 bid league and then all the talking heads just look at the conference standings.

The short of it is I think most years even 9-7 in the league would be problematic but we are the one team this year that will probably get in at 8-8. I could see A&M at 8-8 with 22 wins and not making the tourney.

I won't lie if we split our last 4 games and then lost our first game in the Big 12 tourney I would be nervous but I would still give us probably a 2 to 1 chance of being in. The way A&M has played lately and the way MIZZOU plays on the road we should still be in good shape. A win Wed against Neb would be HUGE though.

[shaun4411]

ou # 1 seed.

[Wildcat0206]

7 seed at Bracketography (http://www.bracketography.com/) playing VCU then UNC

[sooner518]

7 seed at Bracketography (http://www.bracketography.com/) playing VCU then UNC
Capel against his former team. Wouldnt that a be fun storyline for all the talking heads. That Eric Maynor kid is scary good. I think Greg Paulus still has nightmares about him from last year's tourney

[TopDawg]

That'd be just plain mean. I don't think the selection committee would do that.

[OUSKINS]

#8 seed in Bracketology, playing Arkansas.

[tommieharris91]

#8 seed in Bracketology, playing Arkansas.

I'm surprised Lunardi doesn't know that the committee doesn't allow potential rematches until the round of 16 now.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

#8 seed in Bracketology, playing Arkansas.


If we are projected as an 8 seed at 6-6 in the league I have to think we are in decent shape of making the field at 8-8. Usually the last at-large is about a 12-seed. Of course Lunardi isn't official but he is usually pretty close.

I still would prefer to not find out if 8-8 and a first round Big 12 tourney loss would still get us in but I think the chances are decent.

I would say A&M is now in pretty big trouble and KSU could be in some trouble after playing at KU. Baylor looks to be in pretty good shape, the rest of their games are very winnable.

[King Crimson]

I'm surprised Lunardi doesn't know that the committee doesn't allow potential rematches until the round of 16 now.

i'm not. Lunardi is a doofus.

[King Crimson]

Xavier is really good.

the X is the Final Four last year without that flagrant no call foul on Oden. frankly, if Oden isn't getting the star treatment....they go.

[OUSKINS]

With the Nebraska loss, we only fell to #31 in the RPI. Our SOS is really helping in that dept. Gotta find a way to beat the Aggies Saturday though.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

With the Nebraska loss, we only fell to #31 in the RPI. Our SOS is really helping in that dept. Gotta find a way to beat the Aggies Saturday though.


Agreed. Given it is going to be tough to win in Stillwater I think beating A&M is a must as is beating MU at home. I still think we just barely get in if we win our home games...and possibly would need to win a first round Big 12 tourney if we are a 5 playing Colo because it certainly wouldn't help to lose to the last place team twice.

[OUSKINS]

Still in the field over at Bracketology: A 10 seed playing St. Mary's. We haven't even reached the "last 4 teams in" list yet :)

[OUSKINS]

After the A+M game...

#30 in the RPI. Very solidly in at this point. Split the next two and we're fine.

Also, interesting stat...

OU has the third most wins in the NATION against the RPI top 50-- only Texas and Tennessee have more.

[tommieharris91]

After the A+M game...

#30 in the RPI. Very solidly in at this point. Split the next two and we're fine.

Also, interesting stat...

OU has the third most wins in the NATION against the RPI top 50-- only Texas and Tennessee have more.

You can thank Texas Tech for that.

[Sooner98]

Big wins by Arkansas and Gonzaga yesterday are going to help our case a ton. A win by WV over UConn would have been the icing on the cake.

[OUSKINS]

#9 seed playing UNLV in Bracketlogoy today. Bracketography has us as a #7 seed. In other words, we're not even really on the bubble right now-- we're in. Split the next two and we'll be close to a lock.

[sooner518]

I watched alot of ESPN this weekend and I never saw our name mentioned as a bubble team. I take it thats a good sign

[Ardmore_Sooner]

Dicky V said we are in after our game Saturday... take that for what it's worth.

[OUSKINS]

Not a bad night for not playing a game....OU moved up two more spots to #28 in the RPI after Monday's games. Better yet, TT lost, which pretty much eliminates them from that logjam in the conference standings, BUT they stayed in the RPI Top 50, which helps us.

Things are looking really good right now-- the OSU game means little in terms of our post-season hopes. Beat Mizzou and we're in.

[NormanPride]

This is awesome. I hope we can handle Mizzou without Blake!

[SleestakSooner]

Not a bad night for not playing a game....OU moved up two more spots to #28 in the RPI after Monday's games. Better yet, TT lost, which pretty much eliminates them from that logjam in the conference standings, BUT they stayed in the RPI Top 50, which helps us.

Things are looking really good right now-- the OSU game means little in terms of our post-season hopes. Beat Mizzou and we're in.

Yep, and since Blake should be back for post-season play, the committee will look to that as a sign of strength. Hopefully he will be back in time for a first (or second) round game in the conference tourney and show us all that he is still da man!

[OUSKINS]

3-7-08 Update:

#27 in the RPI and a #8 seed in Bracketlogoy playing Miami in the 1st round, then Tennessee. Now that we're more or less in the Dance, it's time to play for seeding and hopefully get off that 8-9 line.

[TopDawg]

I'd like to avoid those 1/2 seeds the first weekend.

Here's hoping we either make it to a 6 (we'd basically have to become a Top 25 team) or drop to an 11. :D

[OUSKINS]

Lunardi has us as a #8 seed today, playing South Alabama in the 1st round-- then Tennessee.

I think if we lose to Baylor, we wind up with an 8-9 seed. If we beat Baylor and lose to Texas, I think we move into 7 seed territory.

[Collier11]

If we got a 8 seed I would love to get a rematch with Memphis in rd 2, we played them tough with BG still getting comfortable

[birddog]

i don't care who we play or what seed we are. i'm just stoked that we get to watch the boys play some more. i think they'll win their first round game, then we'll see what happens.

[Collier11]

FWIW, we are #34 in the AP and still not even getting votes in the coaches poll

[Sooner98]

I predict, as of right now, we are an 8 seed. That seed will get one spot better for every win we have at the tournament this weekend.

[SleestakSooner]

It's funny that the league is getting a lot of respect this season but not so much the Sooners. At least you would think some of the coaches in conference would give OU a vote.

[TopDawg]

FWIW, we are #34 in the AP and still not even getting votes in the coaches poll

You forgot the key component and that's that Baylor is #32 or something like that.

Despite the fact that...

A) We swept them this year
B) We finished ahead of them in conference
C) We have the same number of wins (one more loss, but one of their wins came against D-2) playing the 10th toughest SOS while they played the 31st toughest
D) We are 6-4 during our last 10 games, including a win over Baylor; they are 5-5 during their last 10 games, including a loss to us

I'm not concerned about it because the polls rarely have much impact on seeding or anything...but it's just dumb that we're ranked behind them.

[King Crimson]

You forgot the key component and that's that Baylor is #32 or something like that.

Despite the fact that...

A) We swept them this year
B) We finished ahead of them in conference
C) We have the same number of wins (one more loss, but one of their wins came against D-2) playing the 10th toughest SOS while they played the 31st toughest
D) We are 6-4 during our last 10 games, including a win over Baylor; they are 5-5 during their last 10 games, including a loss to us

I'm not concerned about it because the polls rarely have much impact on seeding or anything...but it's just dumb that we're ranked behind them.

Baylor is a "good story" or "great storyline" to the media clowns. they were gonna assplode on the national scene after teh 5 OT win at ATM and then we BEAT them in Waco. all the national internet sites had feel good articles about them that week and hah!

that said, i won't be surprised at all if they beat us in the conf tournament. if so, so be it. we got the two that mattered. and Jerrells is a heckuva player.

[Boomer.....]

You forgot the key component and that's that Baylor is #32 or something like that.

Despite the fact that...

A) We swept them this year
B) We finished ahead of them in conference
C) We have the same number of wins (one more loss, but one of their wins came against D-2) playing the 10th toughest SOS while they played the 31st toughest
D) We are 6-4 during our last 10 games, including a win over Baylor; they are 5-5 during their last 10 games, including a loss to us

I'm not concerned about it because the polls rarely have much impact on seeding or anything...but it's just dumb that we're ranked behind them.

I noticed the same things. If they get a higher seed than us it will be a joke!

[NormanPride]

What are the RPIs of the other teams in the conference right now? Who gets in/gets snubbed?

Does OSU have a chance? :rolleyes:

[Boomer.....]

5 Texas 13-3 25-5 0.6495 5 0.5874
8 Kansas 13-3 27-3 0.6418 63 0.5466
24 Oklahoma 9-7 21-10 0.6000 10 0.5787
35 Baylor 9-7 20-9 0.5905 31 0.5651
45 Kansas St. 10-6 19-10 0.5810 26 0.5667
47 Texas A&M 8-8 21-9 0.5784 57 0.5516
58 Texas Tech 7-9 15-14 0.5667 3 0.5937
82 Oklahoma St. 7-9 15-14 0.5492 15 0.5729
96 Nebraska 7-9 18-11 0.5383 110 0.5221
111 Missouri 6-10 16-15 0.5325 48 0.5553
168 Colorado 3-13 10-19 0.4992 47 0.5554
170 Iowa St. 4-12 13-17 0.4980 75 0.5410


OSU has NO chance! They might miss the NIT.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

If we got a 8 seed I would love to get a rematch with Memphis in rd 2, we played them tough with BG still getting comfortable

I'm not a 100% certain but I believe the committee tries to avoid rematches until the Sweet 16 so that would mean we probably wouldn't play Memphis.

My guess was that we are a 7 seed at the moment. I think we will be no lower than an 8-9 win or lose on Friday and that a win over Baylor would lock up at least a 7 seed and maybe a 6.

I find it odd that we aren't getting more votes in the poll than we are but 8 wins against the RPI top 50 and a top 10 schedule should translate to a higher seed than our ranking would suggest.

[TDArkansasOhMy]

Wondering if you guys have heard the same as we have of late with the recent Bracketologist? On a popular afternoon radio call in show that comes out of Little Rock, one of the host said the top Bracketologist with the highest %, has put #7 seed Oklahoma against #10 Seed Arkansas, in the Birmingham regional in Alabama. This same guy just last week had Arkansas in Little Rock's regional until unforeseen circumstances with upsets the last few days.
I for one, am not convinced that the Hogs are in. I think we are a bubble team looking in. Our poor finish at seasons end will put us in the NIT I think.
But getting back to what this expert was saying about the possible match-up in Birmingham, It wrote that the Oklahoma team that beat Arkansas earlier in the season was a lot better than the one today?
What gives, have you guys loss a lot to injuries?
Anyway. I see you guys making it, and us staying at home. Whatever the case, Good luck in yalls post season play.

WPS

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

Wondering if you guys have heard the same as we have of late with the recent Bracketologist? On a popular afternoon radio call in show that comes out of Little Rock, one of the host said the top Bracketologist with the highest %, has put #7 seed Oklahoma against #10 Seed Arkansas, in the Birmingham regional in Alabama. This same guy just last week had Arkansas in Little Rock's regional until unforeseen circumstances with upsets the last few days.
I for one, am not convinced that the Hogs are in. I think we are a bubble team looking in. Our poor finish at seasons end will put us in the NIT I think.
But getting back to what this expert was saying about the possible match-up in Birmingham, It wrote that the Oklahoma team that beat Arkansas earlier in the season was a lot better than the one today?
What gives, have you guys loss a lot to injuries?
Anyway. I see you guys making it, and us staying at home. Whatever the case, Good luck in yalls post season play.

WPS

Looks like OU is 7th in bracketology but like I metioned before I think the tourney selection committee tries to avoid rematches in the first 2 rounds. Of course the committee might not be able to avoid it but if Texas and KU are 2 seeds and say KSU and Ark were 10 seeds it would be impossible not to have a rematch without seeds being adjusted.

The Oklahoma team that beat Arkansas early in the year was healthier and deeper but I wouldn't really say better. OU has had a hard time having more that 6-7 healthy bodies in practice which makes the performances on game day all the more impressive.

[OUSKINS]

Lunardi updating daily now...has us as a #7 seed, playing Kent St. in Birmingham.