Poll Myths

[mdklatt]

WHOA, NELLIE! EMPIRICAL TESTS OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL'S CONVENTIONAL
WISDOM (http://www.econ.ohio-state.edu/trevon/w13596.pdf) (Warning: large PDF file)



College football fans, coaches, and observers have adopted a set of beliefs about how college football poll voters behave. I document three pieces of conventional wisdom in college football regarding the timing of wins and losses, the value of playing strong opponents, and the value of winning by wide margins. Using a unique data set with 25 years of AP poll results, I test college football's conventional wisdom. In particular, I test (1) whether it is better to lose early or late in the season, (2) whether teams benefit from playing stronger opponents, and (3) whether teams are rewarded for winning by large margins. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I find that (1) it is better to lose later in the season than earlier, (2) AP voters do not pay attention to the strength of a defeated opponent, and (3) the benefit of winning by a large margin is negligible.

[stoopified]

So basically people pick based on astrology,OUJIA board,or use of a blindfolded monkey and a dart board.Now everything makes PERFECT SENSE. :)

[arcman46]

So basically people pick based on astrology,OUJIA board,or use of a blindfolded monkey and a dart board.Now everything makes PERFECT SENSE. :)

Looking at how some of the AP, Harris and Coaches voters voted, you would think that is the case.:mad:

[Miko]

I thought it was drunken monkeys. It's just one and he's blindfolded, eh? Has it always been this way or is this a response to peta?

[Harry Beanbag]

I thought it was drunken monkeys. It's just one and he's blindfolded, eh? Has it always been this way or is this a response to peta?


I don't think Howard *************** has a vote every year. :)

[Crucifax Autumn]

I've told a few pole myths in my time!