cvsooner
11/30/2007, 05:11 PM
Okay, there are parts of this I really don't agree with, but all in all it's not a bad assessment of either team, or the game. I do like the conclusion, too....
ESPN/Scouts Inc. Preview
Missouri Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
The Tigers typically pass more than they run. They've attempted 59 more passes than runs through 12 games, including a ratio of 49-to-30 the first time these two teams squared off. That percentage should increase this Saturday versus an Oklahoma pass defense that has been exposed at times recently. QB Chase Daniel is the ideal triggerman for the Tigers' spread attack. He is an accurate passer with adequate arm strength and very good mobility, which allows him to overcome his lack of ideal size. Coach Gary Pinkel and offensive coordinator Dave Christensen do an excellent job of moving Daniel around in order to generate better passing windows, while also putting pressure on opponents to defend the run-pass option.
Daniel is blessed with a tremendous supporting cast, which he used to pick apart the Oklahoma secondary for 361 yards the first time around. While there's some concern regarding the status of TE Chase Coffman, who hauled in a game-high 10 passes in that earlier meeting, the rest of Daniel's deep corps of pass-catchers should be geared up for a second shot at this vulnerable pass defense. WR Jeremy Maclin has emerged as one of the most versatile and explosive playmakers in the country. As a receiver, Maclin is a threat both as a vertical route runner and after the catch.
WR Danario Alexander technically is not even a starter, yet the 6-foot-5, 210-pound sophomore is coming off a monster eight-catch, 117-yard outing versus Kansas last Saturday night. Senior Will Franklin is still a bit inconsistent, as witnessed in his performance against the Jayhawks (five catches, one drop and one personal foul penalty). Still, at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds with 4.3-speed, Franklin is yet another vertical threat Oklahoma must account for defensively.
Missouri will certainly miss Coffman if he can't play, but senior TE Martin Rucker is obviously capable of picking up the slack. Rucker is the nation's leading receiver at the tight end position with 75 through 12 games.
The Sooners do not match up well in pass coverage. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables knows his unit is vulnerable and is likely to give up big chunks of yards in this game. But takeaways can serve as the ultimate equalizer, as they did in the first meeting when Oklahoma scored 21 points off of turnovers. So don't be surprised if Venables is more aggressive than usual in an attempt to pressure Daniel into some more costly mistakes.
Oklahoma will be forced to play mostly sub-package personnel throughout this game in order to match up with the Tigers' spread attack. Venables knows he needs to mix up the blitz in an attempt to keep Daniel guessing. That's not a problem for the Sooners, who typically get their defensive backs involved in the pass rush. DS Nic Harris is tied for the team's second-highest sack total (3½) and standout cover corner Reggie Smith even has a sack and a quarterback-hurry on the season.
The Sooners also hope to have their premier pass rusher, DE Auston English, back in the lineup this week. English has missed the past three games due to a leg injury and the pass rush has suffered as a result. He is a talented edge rusher who ranks fifth in the nation in sacks per game with 9½ in nine outings. A healthy English will require lots of double-team attention from the Missouri offensive line, which will open up some other gaps for Venables to attack with the blitz.
Finally, RB Tony Temple flies under the radar but he's an important part of the Tigers' offensive success. He isn't going to run over defenders or make many of them miss in space, but he is a shifty back with good versatility. Temple played a key role in Saturday's win over Kansas with 22 carries for 98 yards. While he's unlikely to see as many carries versus Oklahoma's stifling run defense, Temple will remain heavily involved as a receiver, blocker and occasional decoy.
Oklahoma Offense vs. Missouri Defense
QB Sam Bradford's value has never been greater than it is right now. The Sooners couldn't get anything going offensively when Bradford was knocked out of the Texas Tech game two weeks ago, but the unit didn't skip a beat when Bradford returned to the lineup versus rival Oklahoma State on Saturday.
Bradford shows remarkable poise for a younger quarterback still in his first season as a collegiate starter. He moves around the pocket well and is capable of throwing accurately on the run. Most importantly, Bradford takes what the defense gives him and doesn't force many throws into double-coverage -- hence his ranking as the nation's leader in passing efficiency.
The Sooners do not utilize as many weapons as Missouri does offensively but the ones they do use are big-time threats. WRs Juaquin Iglesias and Malcolm Kelly stack up with any tandem in college football when it comes to pure talent. Iglesias has been more reliable this season with his team-high 57 receptions, but part of his success is a byproduct of the attention Kelly typically draws on the opposite side. Also, once Iglesias proved capable of consistently exploiting extra real estate on his side of the field, opponents were forced to respect him more -- and that's when TE Jermaine Gresham emerged as an integral part of the Sooner passing attack. Bradford has an excellent rapport with the sophomore tight end and looks to him in a lot of short-yardage and red zone situations. Gresham finished the regular season with 450 yards and 10 scores on 32 catches, and he's primed for another big outing versus a Missouri defense that will be stretched extremely thin in this matchup.
The Sooners churn out nearly 200 rushing yards per contest for good reason. They are massive up front and, despite the injury to freshman standout DeMarco Murray (separated kneecap), they still have a strong one-two punch at running back with Allen Patrick and Chris Brown. There's no question Oklahoma can exploit the Tigers if they get caught with either six in "the box" and/or playing with five defensive backs (nickel) on early downs. However, so long as the Tigers remain as honest as possible with their personnel and remain disciplined with a "stop the run first" mentality, they've proven capable of keeping Oklahoma's rushing attack in check.
The reason is that Missouri is much bigger and stronger along the defensive front-seven than most realize, which is why it matches up relatively well in this facet of the game. DT Ziggy Hood and NT Lorenzo Williams hover around 300 pounds, as do their respective backups Charles Gaines and Jaron Baston. DE Tommy Chavis is stout versus the run at 6-foot-2 and 280 pounds. Opposite him is the smallest member of the group in Stryker Sulak, who makes up for his lack of size with excellent initial quickness and up-fields penetrating skills.
Furthermore, Missouri's linebacker trio of MLB Brock Christopher (6-2, 235), WLB Sean Weatherspoon (6-1, 240) and SLB Van Alexander (6-0, 235) is well built and physical. This unit has improved on almost a weekly basis and confidence is high after it limited Kansas to a measly 42 rushing yards last week. In fact, Oklahoma could be surprised at how much this entire front-seven has improved from the group it faced only a month and a half ago.
The Tigers will once again be overmatched athletically versus Oklahoma's receivers -- particularly Kelly -- so expect them to play mostly soft-zone coverage throughout the evening. Coordinator Matt Eberflus typically likes to play a lot of cover-2 and cover-3 zone. Cover-2, which features DSs William Moore and Justin Garrett in deep-half responsibility, gives the Tigers their best chance to prevent the deep ball because CBs Darnell Terrell and Carl Gettis are not asked to turn-and-run with Kelly and Iglesias.
However, with both safeties backed 12 to 15 yards off the line it gives Oklahoma gets a bit of an advantage in the running game. That's why Eberflus will look to mix in a lot of cover-3, which features FS Moore and CBs Terrell and Gettis in deep-third responsibility with SS Garrett cheated up in "the box" for extra run support. The key is to disguise it pre-snap so everything looks like a cover-2 to Bradford. Eberflus got away with some of that in the first matchup, which played a part in limiting the Sooners to only 118 rushing yards.
Special Teams
Missouri PK Jeff Wolfert has been solid this year. He has hit on 17 of 21 field goal attempts and has shown adequate range with a long of 48 yards. Wolfert hasn't been as effective on kickoffs, as he's averaging just 58.6 yards per attempt and has recorded just three touchbacks on 76 kicks. The Tigers' coverage unit has been up to par in this department but will have their work cut out this week, as Oklahoma boasts several dangerous return men.
Tiger P Adam Crossett has averaged just 37.1 yards per punt but has been very accurate, placing over half of his punts inside of the 20-yard line. Crossett's coverage unit has been spotty and has already given up two touchdowns this season. Sooners' PR Reggie Smith has averaged just 6.7 yards per touch and has not posed as a big play threat this season as expected.
Oklahoma PK Garret Hartley has overcome an early funk and has been mostly reliable on field goals, connecting on nine of 11 attempts. He has outstanding range and has connected from 53 yards out earlier this season. Hartley also shows off his leg strength with a 66.5 yard average with his kickoffs and has recorded 26 touchbacks in 91 kicks. P Mike Knall has averaged 41.4 yards per punt but has struggled with his accuracy placing just three of 16 punts inside of 20. Tigers RS Maclin continued his assault last week against Kansas, combining for 109 yards on four returns including a 49-yard punt return. Maclin is one of the nation's elite return men and has three returns for touchdowns this season.
Key Individual Matchup
Missouri TEs Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman vs. Oklahoma DSs Nic Harris and D.J. Wolfe
Rucker and Coffman combined for 16 catches in the first meeting between these two teams. It wasn't a fluke, either. The nation's premier tight end tandem simply exploited an Oklahoma secondary that is struggling to defend the seams in pass coverage the entire season. Since then, Maclin has emerged as an even bigger threat on the perimeter to go along with capable weapons in Franklin, Saunders and Alexander. That means Harris and Wolfe shouldn't expect any more help versus Rucker and Coffman this time around.
Harris and Wolfe are excellent in run support (138 combined tackles) and will also come up with some big plays when the ball is in the air (six combined interceptions). However, neither does a great job of turning and running with athletic tight ends man-to-man. Also, despite their experience, Harris and Wolfe suffer far too many communication breakdowns when in zone coverage. The only reason the Sooners have a chance to fair better this time around is the ankle injury that Coffman suffered last Saturday night. Rucker should still be productive if Coffman is out or limited, but Coffman is the more athletically gifted of the two. It certainly would lessen the stress on the Sooner secondary if Coffman isn't at full force.
Scouts' Edge
It wasn't a fluke that Missouri led through three quarters in Norman earlier this season. Pinkel's team has shown tremendous competitiveness and won't back down from a challenge. The Tigers are the only team in the country to score at least 30 points in every game and they have the athletes to stretch Oklahoma thin defensively. They also are one of the few opponents Oklahoma has faced with enough size to hold up in the trenches versus its massive offensive line. With all that said, the Sooners are still the more talented team top-to-bottom and Stoops is still the more proven commodity, particularly in such a big game setting.
Oklahoma dominated the fourth quarter 18-7 in its victory over Missouri the first time these two teams met. It proved to be the difference in that game. It also has proven to be a trend for both teams this season. The Sooners have outscored opponents by a total of 84 points in the final 15 minutes of games. Conversely, the Tigers have scored fewer points (107) and surrendered more points (94) in the fourth quarter than in any of the first three quarters this season. There can be several contributing factors to such a trend. In this case it speaks volumes to the Sooners' superior depth. That depth should once again give the Sooners the edge in what projects as a comparatively low-scoring but extremely close affair.
Prediction: Sooners 31, Tigers 27
ESPN/Scouts Inc. Preview
Missouri Offense vs. Oklahoma Defense
The Tigers typically pass more than they run. They've attempted 59 more passes than runs through 12 games, including a ratio of 49-to-30 the first time these two teams squared off. That percentage should increase this Saturday versus an Oklahoma pass defense that has been exposed at times recently. QB Chase Daniel is the ideal triggerman for the Tigers' spread attack. He is an accurate passer with adequate arm strength and very good mobility, which allows him to overcome his lack of ideal size. Coach Gary Pinkel and offensive coordinator Dave Christensen do an excellent job of moving Daniel around in order to generate better passing windows, while also putting pressure on opponents to defend the run-pass option.
Daniel is blessed with a tremendous supporting cast, which he used to pick apart the Oklahoma secondary for 361 yards the first time around. While there's some concern regarding the status of TE Chase Coffman, who hauled in a game-high 10 passes in that earlier meeting, the rest of Daniel's deep corps of pass-catchers should be geared up for a second shot at this vulnerable pass defense. WR Jeremy Maclin has emerged as one of the most versatile and explosive playmakers in the country. As a receiver, Maclin is a threat both as a vertical route runner and after the catch.
WR Danario Alexander technically is not even a starter, yet the 6-foot-5, 210-pound sophomore is coming off a monster eight-catch, 117-yard outing versus Kansas last Saturday night. Senior Will Franklin is still a bit inconsistent, as witnessed in his performance against the Jayhawks (five catches, one drop and one personal foul penalty). Still, at 6-foot-2, 205 pounds with 4.3-speed, Franklin is yet another vertical threat Oklahoma must account for defensively.
Missouri will certainly miss Coffman if he can't play, but senior TE Martin Rucker is obviously capable of picking up the slack. Rucker is the nation's leading receiver at the tight end position with 75 through 12 games.
The Sooners do not match up well in pass coverage. Defensive coordinator Brent Venables knows his unit is vulnerable and is likely to give up big chunks of yards in this game. But takeaways can serve as the ultimate equalizer, as they did in the first meeting when Oklahoma scored 21 points off of turnovers. So don't be surprised if Venables is more aggressive than usual in an attempt to pressure Daniel into some more costly mistakes.
Oklahoma will be forced to play mostly sub-package personnel throughout this game in order to match up with the Tigers' spread attack. Venables knows he needs to mix up the blitz in an attempt to keep Daniel guessing. That's not a problem for the Sooners, who typically get their defensive backs involved in the pass rush. DS Nic Harris is tied for the team's second-highest sack total (3½) and standout cover corner Reggie Smith even has a sack and a quarterback-hurry on the season.
The Sooners also hope to have their premier pass rusher, DE Auston English, back in the lineup this week. English has missed the past three games due to a leg injury and the pass rush has suffered as a result. He is a talented edge rusher who ranks fifth in the nation in sacks per game with 9½ in nine outings. A healthy English will require lots of double-team attention from the Missouri offensive line, which will open up some other gaps for Venables to attack with the blitz.
Finally, RB Tony Temple flies under the radar but he's an important part of the Tigers' offensive success. He isn't going to run over defenders or make many of them miss in space, but he is a shifty back with good versatility. Temple played a key role in Saturday's win over Kansas with 22 carries for 98 yards. While he's unlikely to see as many carries versus Oklahoma's stifling run defense, Temple will remain heavily involved as a receiver, blocker and occasional decoy.
Oklahoma Offense vs. Missouri Defense
QB Sam Bradford's value has never been greater than it is right now. The Sooners couldn't get anything going offensively when Bradford was knocked out of the Texas Tech game two weeks ago, but the unit didn't skip a beat when Bradford returned to the lineup versus rival Oklahoma State on Saturday.
Bradford shows remarkable poise for a younger quarterback still in his first season as a collegiate starter. He moves around the pocket well and is capable of throwing accurately on the run. Most importantly, Bradford takes what the defense gives him and doesn't force many throws into double-coverage -- hence his ranking as the nation's leader in passing efficiency.
The Sooners do not utilize as many weapons as Missouri does offensively but the ones they do use are big-time threats. WRs Juaquin Iglesias and Malcolm Kelly stack up with any tandem in college football when it comes to pure talent. Iglesias has been more reliable this season with his team-high 57 receptions, but part of his success is a byproduct of the attention Kelly typically draws on the opposite side. Also, once Iglesias proved capable of consistently exploiting extra real estate on his side of the field, opponents were forced to respect him more -- and that's when TE Jermaine Gresham emerged as an integral part of the Sooner passing attack. Bradford has an excellent rapport with the sophomore tight end and looks to him in a lot of short-yardage and red zone situations. Gresham finished the regular season with 450 yards and 10 scores on 32 catches, and he's primed for another big outing versus a Missouri defense that will be stretched extremely thin in this matchup.
The Sooners churn out nearly 200 rushing yards per contest for good reason. They are massive up front and, despite the injury to freshman standout DeMarco Murray (separated kneecap), they still have a strong one-two punch at running back with Allen Patrick and Chris Brown. There's no question Oklahoma can exploit the Tigers if they get caught with either six in "the box" and/or playing with five defensive backs (nickel) on early downs. However, so long as the Tigers remain as honest as possible with their personnel and remain disciplined with a "stop the run first" mentality, they've proven capable of keeping Oklahoma's rushing attack in check.
The reason is that Missouri is much bigger and stronger along the defensive front-seven than most realize, which is why it matches up relatively well in this facet of the game. DT Ziggy Hood and NT Lorenzo Williams hover around 300 pounds, as do their respective backups Charles Gaines and Jaron Baston. DE Tommy Chavis is stout versus the run at 6-foot-2 and 280 pounds. Opposite him is the smallest member of the group in Stryker Sulak, who makes up for his lack of size with excellent initial quickness and up-fields penetrating skills.
Furthermore, Missouri's linebacker trio of MLB Brock Christopher (6-2, 235), WLB Sean Weatherspoon (6-1, 240) and SLB Van Alexander (6-0, 235) is well built and physical. This unit has improved on almost a weekly basis and confidence is high after it limited Kansas to a measly 42 rushing yards last week. In fact, Oklahoma could be surprised at how much this entire front-seven has improved from the group it faced only a month and a half ago.
The Tigers will once again be overmatched athletically versus Oklahoma's receivers -- particularly Kelly -- so expect them to play mostly soft-zone coverage throughout the evening. Coordinator Matt Eberflus typically likes to play a lot of cover-2 and cover-3 zone. Cover-2, which features DSs William Moore and Justin Garrett in deep-half responsibility, gives the Tigers their best chance to prevent the deep ball because CBs Darnell Terrell and Carl Gettis are not asked to turn-and-run with Kelly and Iglesias.
However, with both safeties backed 12 to 15 yards off the line it gives Oklahoma gets a bit of an advantage in the running game. That's why Eberflus will look to mix in a lot of cover-3, which features FS Moore and CBs Terrell and Gettis in deep-third responsibility with SS Garrett cheated up in "the box" for extra run support. The key is to disguise it pre-snap so everything looks like a cover-2 to Bradford. Eberflus got away with some of that in the first matchup, which played a part in limiting the Sooners to only 118 rushing yards.
Special Teams
Missouri PK Jeff Wolfert has been solid this year. He has hit on 17 of 21 field goal attempts and has shown adequate range with a long of 48 yards. Wolfert hasn't been as effective on kickoffs, as he's averaging just 58.6 yards per attempt and has recorded just three touchbacks on 76 kicks. The Tigers' coverage unit has been up to par in this department but will have their work cut out this week, as Oklahoma boasts several dangerous return men.
Tiger P Adam Crossett has averaged just 37.1 yards per punt but has been very accurate, placing over half of his punts inside of the 20-yard line. Crossett's coverage unit has been spotty and has already given up two touchdowns this season. Sooners' PR Reggie Smith has averaged just 6.7 yards per touch and has not posed as a big play threat this season as expected.
Oklahoma PK Garret Hartley has overcome an early funk and has been mostly reliable on field goals, connecting on nine of 11 attempts. He has outstanding range and has connected from 53 yards out earlier this season. Hartley also shows off his leg strength with a 66.5 yard average with his kickoffs and has recorded 26 touchbacks in 91 kicks. P Mike Knall has averaged 41.4 yards per punt but has struggled with his accuracy placing just three of 16 punts inside of 20. Tigers RS Maclin continued his assault last week against Kansas, combining for 109 yards on four returns including a 49-yard punt return. Maclin is one of the nation's elite return men and has three returns for touchdowns this season.
Key Individual Matchup
Missouri TEs Martin Rucker and Chase Coffman vs. Oklahoma DSs Nic Harris and D.J. Wolfe
Rucker and Coffman combined for 16 catches in the first meeting between these two teams. It wasn't a fluke, either. The nation's premier tight end tandem simply exploited an Oklahoma secondary that is struggling to defend the seams in pass coverage the entire season. Since then, Maclin has emerged as an even bigger threat on the perimeter to go along with capable weapons in Franklin, Saunders and Alexander. That means Harris and Wolfe shouldn't expect any more help versus Rucker and Coffman this time around.
Harris and Wolfe are excellent in run support (138 combined tackles) and will also come up with some big plays when the ball is in the air (six combined interceptions). However, neither does a great job of turning and running with athletic tight ends man-to-man. Also, despite their experience, Harris and Wolfe suffer far too many communication breakdowns when in zone coverage. The only reason the Sooners have a chance to fair better this time around is the ankle injury that Coffman suffered last Saturday night. Rucker should still be productive if Coffman is out or limited, but Coffman is the more athletically gifted of the two. It certainly would lessen the stress on the Sooner secondary if Coffman isn't at full force.
Scouts' Edge
It wasn't a fluke that Missouri led through three quarters in Norman earlier this season. Pinkel's team has shown tremendous competitiveness and won't back down from a challenge. The Tigers are the only team in the country to score at least 30 points in every game and they have the athletes to stretch Oklahoma thin defensively. They also are one of the few opponents Oklahoma has faced with enough size to hold up in the trenches versus its massive offensive line. With all that said, the Sooners are still the more talented team top-to-bottom and Stoops is still the more proven commodity, particularly in such a big game setting.
Oklahoma dominated the fourth quarter 18-7 in its victory over Missouri the first time these two teams met. It proved to be the difference in that game. It also has proven to be a trend for both teams this season. The Sooners have outscored opponents by a total of 84 points in the final 15 minutes of games. Conversely, the Tigers have scored fewer points (107) and surrendered more points (94) in the fourth quarter than in any of the first three quarters this season. There can be several contributing factors to such a trend. In this case it speaks volumes to the Sooners' superior depth. That depth should once again give the Sooners the edge in what projects as a comparatively low-scoring but extremely close affair.
Prediction: Sooners 31, Tigers 27