colinreturn
11/15/2007, 09:58 AM
Expert: Big 12 will push its way into BCS title game
Kansas, Oklahoma or Missouri will be playing for national title
ASK THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL EXPERT
By Joey Johnston
updated 11:55 p.m. CT, Tues., Nov. 13, 2007
LSU or Oregon?
Oregon or LSU?
The argument rages. Who should be No. 1 now? Who’s going to be No. 1 after the BCS championship game in New Orleans? It’s a terrific debate.
And it completely overlooks the hottest topic in college football — the Big 12 Conference’s sudden three-pronged approach to a national championship.
Kansas (10-0), Oklahoma (9-1) and Missouri (9-1).
In the BCS standings, they are running 3-4-5.
By Dec. 2, when the final standings are announced, a Big 12 team is going to be No. 1 or No. 2. Mark my words.
Ironic, isn’t it? Especially in a season where the SEC and Pac-10 have clashed over which league had the best superpower, which league played the mightier non-conference schedule, which league had the most depth.
Along came the Big 12, sneaking up on everyone.
Call it a confluence of timing, circumstances and a trio of Heisman Trophy-worthy players to emerge at quarterback.
Let’s take ‘em one at a time.
Quarterbacks
Oklahoma redshirt freshman Sam Bradford leads the nation in passing efficiency.
Kansas sophomore Todd Reesing is drawing comparisons to Doug Flutie.
Missouri junior Chase Daniel has become a ringleader in the spread-offense revolution.
At this moment, all three players could be invited to New York’s Heisman ceremony without a raised eyebrow from most of the experts. Remarkable. Especially when considering that only Daniel (maybe) was portrayed as a Heisman possibility in the preseason.
Timing
In the BCS system, early season losses won’t necessarily cripple national-championship aspirations. Late season victories — particularly those of the dramatic and eye-opening variety — can serve as a springboard.
The Big 12 not only has a springboard, it has a slingshot (with the Dec. 1 Big 12 championship game). If Kansas gets to 13-0 (with victories against Missouri and Oklahoma), that’s a major statement and it will be noticed by voters. If Missouri gets to 12-1 (with victories against unbeaten Kansas and Oklahoma), ditto.
And if Oklahoma beats either unbeaten Kansas or once-beaten Missouri in the Big 12 title game, the Sooners will be 12-1 — with more than enough ammunition for a ticket to New Orleans.
Circumstances
In another season, maybe the Big 12 probably wouldn’t be enjoying this wave of success. Things have broken in the right way.
Let’s remember the non-conference schedule of Kansas (Central Michigan, Southeastern Louisiana, Toledo and Florida International) with a Big 12 regular-season slate that dodged Texas and Oklahoma.
Let’s remember how Missouri weathered some early season bumps (avoiding a major collapse against Illinois, winning 40-34, then holding off Ole Miss 35-28). The Tigers were allowed to grow into the season, giving a good account of themselves at Oklahoma, losing 41-31, while mowing down most of the other Big 12 opponents. One more thing: Missouri also avoided Texas on the regular-season schedule.
Finally, let’s remember how Oklahoma’s reputation was bumped by a 51-13 win against Miami, when no one really knew about the Hurricanes, and how the record was boosted by a largely forgiving non-conference slate (North Texas and Utah State are a combined 1-18). The Sooners were embarrassed by a final-play 27-24 loss at Colorado, in a game they seemingly had under control, but a flurry of top 10 upsets deflected attention from that outcome.
Somewhere along the line, USC’s dynasty was halted. Somewhere along the line, Ohio State was defeated. Somewhere along the line, South Florida was exposed, California unraveled and the SEC’s best hopes (except for LSU) began to sink.
Meanwhile, while we weren’t paying attention, the Big 12 teams rose to the surface. And one of them is going to be New Orleans-bound, against all odds.
Q: Can the Miami Hurricanes work new magic in their new stadium next year under head coach Randy Shannon?
— M. Hughes, Los Angeles
A: It looks like Miami is facing a major rebuilding job, so the magic might be slow in coming. By all accounts, Randy Shannon and his staff are doing well in recruiting. Good thing. The Hurricanes need an influx of playmakers at nearly every position.
Most of all, the Hurricanes need a quarterback. Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman just haven’t gotten it done, giving Miami a lack of presence at the position that the program probably hasn’t seen since the 1970s.
Robert Marve, a newcomer from Tampa who is taking a redshirt season after a summertime car accident, could be the answer. He was Florida’s Mr. Football in 2006 and threw a state-record 48 touchdown passes as a senior. But even with Marve around, there’s a blinking “help wanted’’ sign behind center, and Miami should be interested in all highly ranked players.
As for the new stadium?
Well, it’s going to be different. The Orange Bowl was a large part of Miami’s mystique through the glory years. It was an intimidating din, and probably worth up to 10 points on some of those big-game nights. Dolphin Stadium is comfortable, suburban, antiseptic. Even the Miami Dolphins haven’t been the same since leaving the Orange Bowl after the 1986 season. The Hurricanes won’t be the same, either. But with Miami located in the middle of such a fertile recruiting ground, the Hurricanes can get back on their feet rather quickly. Realistically, I’d give Miami a shot at the ACC title by 2009.
Q: With a change seemingly imminent at Nebraska after the season, who would you guess would be the front runner for the job? Turner Gill? Bo Pelini? What about bringing Frank Solich back?
— Eric, Waverly, Iowa
A: My guess is Bo Pelini. He understands the Nebraska culture, having worked there. He’s the defensive coordinator at LSU, and could be part of a national-championship effort. Nebraska’s defense has been horrendous. Fixing that unit is job No. 1, even beyond the offensive philosophies (Return to the running-game roots? Or develop a spread or some other 21st century method of moving the ball).
Turner Gill, the former Cornhusker quarterback and head coach at Buffalo, has the most glamorous name, but I’m still inclined to go with Pelini’s experience and coaching pedigree.
It was a mistake to fire Frank Solich after a 9-3 record. That ship has sailed. It’s natural to embrace any part of Tom Osborne’s legacy, but it’s logically time for Nebraska to seek a long-term leader who can lead the Cornhuskers to a new era of prominence.
Q: Why isn’t anyone talking about West Virginia as a contender? They only have one loss, too. If Missouri beats Kansas and Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, and LSU loses in the SEC title game, then why not Oregon-West Virginia?
— Tony Davis, Charlotte, N.C.
A: Actually, I think you just made a good argument for Missouri in the title game. It would be awfully difficult to deny the Tigers if they defeat unbeaten Kansas, then avenge their only loss with a victory against potential 11-1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Without a playoff, the argument between potential 12-1 Missouri and potential 11-1 West Virginia is like splitting hairs.
Missouri is ahead of West Virginia right now because that’s the way the polls (and computer rankings) have fallen. Given Missouri’s potential for a string of nice victories (Kansas State, Kansas and maybe Oklahoma) and West Virginia’s so-so remaining slate in the Big East (Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh), the Tigers have a much greater upside (and don’t forget, they also have a season-opening non-conference win against Illinois).
If your scenario actually happens, we’ll see how it evolves. But I have a feeling that West Virginia will wind up 11-1 with a spot in the Fiesta Bowl — and it will still be kicking itself over the six-turnover 21-13 loss at South Florida on Sept. 28. For that matter, a potential 11-1 Ohio State team will be pitching its case, too, touting wins against Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan.
A playoff system is the best way to settle an argument between one-loss teams.
With the BCS, it becomes a train wreck.
© 2007 MSNBC Interactive
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21773055/
:pop: :pop: :pop: :pop: :pop: :pop:
Kansas, Oklahoma or Missouri will be playing for national title
ASK THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL EXPERT
By Joey Johnston
updated 11:55 p.m. CT, Tues., Nov. 13, 2007
LSU or Oregon?
Oregon or LSU?
The argument rages. Who should be No. 1 now? Who’s going to be No. 1 after the BCS championship game in New Orleans? It’s a terrific debate.
And it completely overlooks the hottest topic in college football — the Big 12 Conference’s sudden three-pronged approach to a national championship.
Kansas (10-0), Oklahoma (9-1) and Missouri (9-1).
In the BCS standings, they are running 3-4-5.
By Dec. 2, when the final standings are announced, a Big 12 team is going to be No. 1 or No. 2. Mark my words.
Ironic, isn’t it? Especially in a season where the SEC and Pac-10 have clashed over which league had the best superpower, which league played the mightier non-conference schedule, which league had the most depth.
Along came the Big 12, sneaking up on everyone.
Call it a confluence of timing, circumstances and a trio of Heisman Trophy-worthy players to emerge at quarterback.
Let’s take ‘em one at a time.
Quarterbacks
Oklahoma redshirt freshman Sam Bradford leads the nation in passing efficiency.
Kansas sophomore Todd Reesing is drawing comparisons to Doug Flutie.
Missouri junior Chase Daniel has become a ringleader in the spread-offense revolution.
At this moment, all three players could be invited to New York’s Heisman ceremony without a raised eyebrow from most of the experts. Remarkable. Especially when considering that only Daniel (maybe) was portrayed as a Heisman possibility in the preseason.
Timing
In the BCS system, early season losses won’t necessarily cripple national-championship aspirations. Late season victories — particularly those of the dramatic and eye-opening variety — can serve as a springboard.
The Big 12 not only has a springboard, it has a slingshot (with the Dec. 1 Big 12 championship game). If Kansas gets to 13-0 (with victories against Missouri and Oklahoma), that’s a major statement and it will be noticed by voters. If Missouri gets to 12-1 (with victories against unbeaten Kansas and Oklahoma), ditto.
And if Oklahoma beats either unbeaten Kansas or once-beaten Missouri in the Big 12 title game, the Sooners will be 12-1 — with more than enough ammunition for a ticket to New Orleans.
Circumstances
In another season, maybe the Big 12 probably wouldn’t be enjoying this wave of success. Things have broken in the right way.
Let’s remember the non-conference schedule of Kansas (Central Michigan, Southeastern Louisiana, Toledo and Florida International) with a Big 12 regular-season slate that dodged Texas and Oklahoma.
Let’s remember how Missouri weathered some early season bumps (avoiding a major collapse against Illinois, winning 40-34, then holding off Ole Miss 35-28). The Tigers were allowed to grow into the season, giving a good account of themselves at Oklahoma, losing 41-31, while mowing down most of the other Big 12 opponents. One more thing: Missouri also avoided Texas on the regular-season schedule.
Finally, let’s remember how Oklahoma’s reputation was bumped by a 51-13 win against Miami, when no one really knew about the Hurricanes, and how the record was boosted by a largely forgiving non-conference slate (North Texas and Utah State are a combined 1-18). The Sooners were embarrassed by a final-play 27-24 loss at Colorado, in a game they seemingly had under control, but a flurry of top 10 upsets deflected attention from that outcome.
Somewhere along the line, USC’s dynasty was halted. Somewhere along the line, Ohio State was defeated. Somewhere along the line, South Florida was exposed, California unraveled and the SEC’s best hopes (except for LSU) began to sink.
Meanwhile, while we weren’t paying attention, the Big 12 teams rose to the surface. And one of them is going to be New Orleans-bound, against all odds.
Q: Can the Miami Hurricanes work new magic in their new stadium next year under head coach Randy Shannon?
— M. Hughes, Los Angeles
A: It looks like Miami is facing a major rebuilding job, so the magic might be slow in coming. By all accounts, Randy Shannon and his staff are doing well in recruiting. Good thing. The Hurricanes need an influx of playmakers at nearly every position.
Most of all, the Hurricanes need a quarterback. Kyle Wright and Kirby Freeman just haven’t gotten it done, giving Miami a lack of presence at the position that the program probably hasn’t seen since the 1970s.
Robert Marve, a newcomer from Tampa who is taking a redshirt season after a summertime car accident, could be the answer. He was Florida’s Mr. Football in 2006 and threw a state-record 48 touchdown passes as a senior. But even with Marve around, there’s a blinking “help wanted’’ sign behind center, and Miami should be interested in all highly ranked players.
As for the new stadium?
Well, it’s going to be different. The Orange Bowl was a large part of Miami’s mystique through the glory years. It was an intimidating din, and probably worth up to 10 points on some of those big-game nights. Dolphin Stadium is comfortable, suburban, antiseptic. Even the Miami Dolphins haven’t been the same since leaving the Orange Bowl after the 1986 season. The Hurricanes won’t be the same, either. But with Miami located in the middle of such a fertile recruiting ground, the Hurricanes can get back on their feet rather quickly. Realistically, I’d give Miami a shot at the ACC title by 2009.
Q: With a change seemingly imminent at Nebraska after the season, who would you guess would be the front runner for the job? Turner Gill? Bo Pelini? What about bringing Frank Solich back?
— Eric, Waverly, Iowa
A: My guess is Bo Pelini. He understands the Nebraska culture, having worked there. He’s the defensive coordinator at LSU, and could be part of a national-championship effort. Nebraska’s defense has been horrendous. Fixing that unit is job No. 1, even beyond the offensive philosophies (Return to the running-game roots? Or develop a spread or some other 21st century method of moving the ball).
Turner Gill, the former Cornhusker quarterback and head coach at Buffalo, has the most glamorous name, but I’m still inclined to go with Pelini’s experience and coaching pedigree.
It was a mistake to fire Frank Solich after a 9-3 record. That ship has sailed. It’s natural to embrace any part of Tom Osborne’s legacy, but it’s logically time for Nebraska to seek a long-term leader who can lead the Cornhuskers to a new era of prominence.
Q: Why isn’t anyone talking about West Virginia as a contender? They only have one loss, too. If Missouri beats Kansas and Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, and LSU loses in the SEC title game, then why not Oregon-West Virginia?
— Tony Davis, Charlotte, N.C.
A: Actually, I think you just made a good argument for Missouri in the title game. It would be awfully difficult to deny the Tigers if they defeat unbeaten Kansas, then avenge their only loss with a victory against potential 11-1 Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Without a playoff, the argument between potential 12-1 Missouri and potential 11-1 West Virginia is like splitting hairs.
Missouri is ahead of West Virginia right now because that’s the way the polls (and computer rankings) have fallen. Given Missouri’s potential for a string of nice victories (Kansas State, Kansas and maybe Oklahoma) and West Virginia’s so-so remaining slate in the Big East (Cincinnati, Connecticut, Pittsburgh), the Tigers have a much greater upside (and don’t forget, they also have a season-opening non-conference win against Illinois).
If your scenario actually happens, we’ll see how it evolves. But I have a feeling that West Virginia will wind up 11-1 with a spot in the Fiesta Bowl — and it will still be kicking itself over the six-turnover 21-13 loss at South Florida on Sept. 28. For that matter, a potential 11-1 Ohio State team will be pitching its case, too, touting wins against Penn State, Wisconsin and Michigan.
A playoff system is the best way to settle an argument between one-loss teams.
With the BCS, it becomes a train wreck.
© 2007 MSNBC Interactive
URL: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21773055/
:pop: :pop: :pop: :pop: :pop: :pop: