Analysis of "Will we pass Oregon"

[BermudaSooner]

Assuming LSU, Oregon and OU win out, will OU pass Oregon.

Well, I went through the BCS numbers in detail and here is what I found (just skip to the end if you want the answer):

As you may or may not know, the BCS ranking is a simple average of the Harris, Coaches/USA Today, and Computer polls. Each of the 3 components is a percentage of points you have to total points available. So, if your team gets every first place vote, you have a 1.0000 for that poll.

Let's start with the human polls first. We have total points and number of first place votes, so need to see how each team is actually getting their votes. I need to make a couple of assumptions here, but I don't think they are that material.

1. LSU and Oregon are ranked in the top 3 by everybody in Harris.
2. LSU is ranked in the top 5 in Coaches by everybody, and Oregon is ranked in the top 4.
3. KU and OU are ranked in the top 5 by everyone in both polls.

That means, in Harris:

LSU has 73 first place, 20 second place, and 19 3rd place votes
Oregon has 22 first, 31 second, 59 third.
OU has 9 first, 30 second, 30 3rd, 42 fourth and 1 fifth
KU has 8 first, 31 second, 4 third, 13 fourth and 56 fifth.

In Coaches:

LSU has 35 first, 17 second, 4 third, 1 fourth, 4 fifth
Oregon has 13 first, 11 second, 26 third, 10 fourth
OU has 4 first, 20 second, 10 third, 10 fourth, 16 fifth
KU has 7 first, 12 second, 6 third, 8 fourth, 27 fifth

Now, lets assume that KU beats Mizzou, OU wins out, and OU beats KU in the Big XII championship game. How would voters now vote? I have assumed the following:

Harris:
1. OU gets all of KU's first place votes.
2. OU gets all of KU's second place votes.
3. Everyone keeps LSU in the same spot in voting.
4. OU gets half of Oregon's second place votes.
5. Oregon keeps all of their first place votes, and their losses on second place votes move to 3rd.
6. The rest of OU's votes are now 3rd (no more 4th or 5ths).

This seems pretty logical, and gives:

LSU: 0.9793
Oregon: 0.9411
OU: 0.9596

So OU ranked #2 in Harris.

For Coaches it is a bit more difficult, and clearly the voting is all over the place, as some coaches may vote to help their team (why not?).

Assumtions for Coaches:

1. LSU keeps it's 1st and 2nd place votes, and the 4ths and 5ths move to 3rd.
2. Oregon keeps all of it votes as it is.
3. OU gets's KU's 1st place votes, keeps it's 2nd place votes, and all 4ths and 5th's become 3rds.

That results in:

LSU: 0.978
Oregon: 0.938
OU: 0.948

So again, OU passes Oregon for #2 in Coaches.

Now to the computers.

LSU is #1 in 4 of the 6, and 2nd in those 2.
Oregon is 2nd in 2, and 3rd in 4
KU is #1 in 2, and has a 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and a 6th
OU has 3 7ths, 2 9ths, and 1 8th.

Now we need to assume something about other teams. Let's assume that OSU, ASU, WVa, all win out. Also, lets assume that the computers don't allow OU to leap frog any of those teams with a win over KU.

Then,

LSU #1 in all 6
Oregon #2 in 5, and #3 in 1 (behind OSU)
OU gets 3 5ths, a 6th, a 7th, and an 8th.

BCS works out as follows (harris, USA, computers, total average)

LSU 0.9793 0.978 1.000 0.9858
Oregon: 0.9411 0.938 0.9600 0.9464
OU: 0.9596 0.9480 0.8100 0.9059

LSU and Oregon play.

Now, let's assume that OSU, ASU lose, and that OU can jump up to 3rd in all of the computer polls.

We still lose out, with Oregon at 0.9464 and OU at 0.9425.

If; however, OU can get 2 #2s in the computer, and 3 #3s, then it plays out as:

Oregon 0.9430
OU 0.9459

So, in conclusion, it doesn't look like it would happen. But the only real way for it to happen is:

KU wins out until Champ game
OSU loses to Michigan
ASU loss would help as well
The voters really like OU over Oregon, so much so that they change the way they have been voting.

The other dynamic that could happen is Oregon voters switch their votes to LSU. The lead LSU has can't be surpassed by OU without an LSU loss, so voters switching to LSU over Oregon helps as it decreases the lead Oregon has on OU. Lackluster performances by Oregon and great performances by LSU (ugh!) might the the things to root for absent a loss by either.

[TopDawg]

Wow. Props for all that work.

[oupride]

Wow. Props for all that work.
ditto!

[Soonermagik]

Isn't Oregon going to be idle? The Pac-10 doesn't have a championship game and we do. Therefore, we should jump up in the polls when Oregon does nothing. Plus, in the voters world it is what have you done for me lately.

If we beat Kansas or Missouri either should be ranked in the top 5 it should create a big jump.

[Salt City Sooner]

FWIW, I heard Brad Edwards on ESPN radio say that if both OU & UO win out that OU is New Orleans-bound. Obviously still speculation at this point, but he's usually pretty darn close on his projections.

[The Maestro]

So if we do pass Oregon without them losing again, can we, on BCS Selection Sunday, get the head referee from the OU-Oregon game, circa 2006, come on live T.V. and say, "After further review, the Sooners are BCS Title Bowl Bound!" Now THAT would be classic!

Hell, drag Gordo Riese down to Norman to announce it! Have him look at the replay of Fox's coverage and confirm it is true!

[85sooners]

:pop:

[MextheBulldog]

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO Arizona!

[garland sooner]

seriously, go mike. do what you did last year and beat those duckers.

[Sooner_Havok]

That hurts meh brain meats

[illinisooner]

So if we do pass Oregon without them losing again, can we, on BCS Selection Sunday, get the head referee from the OU-Oregon game, circa 2006, come on live T.V. and say, "After further review, the Sooners are BCS Title Bowl Bound!" Now THAT would be classic!

Hell, drag Gordo Riese down to Norman to announce it! Have him look at the replay of Fox's coverage and confirm it is true!

It'd be even better if they announce Oregon as the #2 team first, so they think they're New Orleans bound, and then break their hearts when the rankings are "under review" and have Gordo announce that the ranking has been overturned, OU is #2 and going to the title game!

[BoomerSoonerSchooner]

Isn't Oregon going to be idle? The Pac-10 doesn't have a championship game and we do. Therefore, we should jump up in the polls when Oregon does nothing. Plus, in the voters world it is what have you done for me lately.

If we beat Kansas or Missouri either should be ranked in the top 5 it should create a big jump.

I do believe Oregon has a game on December 1st against Oregon State in Eugene.

[ClintonSooner]

No. That assumption is garbage! :D

[madillsoonerfan5353]

Is it just me, or would Kansas be better than Mizzou in the CCG? We wouldn't gain much after beating Mizzou twice, would we?

[LRoss]

That was amazing. I thought I was an egg-head. NICE work bro.

[MI Sooner]

I think that one thing people are overlooking when they assume we would be better off playing Kansas is the computer rankings.

If KU wins, and we play them, it means we'll play the strongest possible opponent in the computer rankings in the CCG (assuming we get there). But what people forget is that KU's win means that MU loses, which hurts our SOS. I think that we'd be better off, at least in the computer rankings, playing MU again. Knowing that we have to win out to make the championship game, that would give us the best possible computer ranking.

[josh09]

Before we get too far into this, how about we actually focus on WINNING our remaining games first, eh?

[josh09]

OR how about an LSU loss in the SEC champ.?

That would be nice.

[Tulsa_Fireman]

What I'm wondering is how a loss to understandably poor Colorado outweighs quality wins over the #6 and #12 teams in the nation. So much so it puts us anywhere from 7th to 9th in the computer rankings. I understand full well about a weak non-conference schedule, but blowing the pants off of Utah State shouldn't (not DOESN'T, shouldn't, IMHO) hurt THAT bad.

Those are two quality wins. Are they just not quality enough? And with that in mind, even if we do defeat an undefeated Kansas in the conference championship, how in the heck can it make a difference if they're nutting us as it is?

[westcoast_sooner]

Great work Bermuda. Sounds like in order to make the voters reconsider how they've been voting OU, it boils down to the much hated "Style Points". If we eke out wins in our remaining games, including the CCG, it won't look as good to voters who watch game highlights on ESPN as if we dominate and crush them.

OK - well, let's hope we win them all by 60.

[Blues1]

Thursday Night .....Everything will Change....!!!
Arizona 36 Oregon 35 ---- :)

Have Fun & Keep Rockin'

[Soonerus]

Oregon and LSU could both lose...

[sooneron]

I am reluctant to admit that I agree with rus.

[IronHorseSooner]

Thursday Night .....Everything will Change....!!!
Arizona 36 Oregon 35 ----


Keeping with the prediction that I made for Illinois-tOSU and Lester v UK this year, I will now make it a trifecta and call...

Little Brother- 27 Fraudzen- 21 (Arizona plays inspired ball and Dixon's injury is worse than we all thought)

BTW, we all need UK to win this week over the SEC's fat man. This will cause UGA to play Lester for the championship, and I truly believe that UGA is the best team in the SEC.

[OUTrumpet]

So, in conclusion, it doesn't look like it would happen. But the only real way for it to happen is:

KU wins out until Champ game
OSU loses to Michigan
ASU loss would help as well
The voters really like OU over Oregon, so much so that they change the way they have been voting.

I've got a question about Ohio State losing to Michigan...wouldn't it be better if Ohio State won since Michigan played Oregon?

[Texas Golfer]

Normally, having to play a conference championship game only can hurt a national title contender (nothing to gain by winning a game you should and everything to lose). But, in this case, it will help the Big XII winner. By beating a top 4 team, whoever wins that game will vault over #2 Oregon should the top 4 all win out (until the Big XII Championship game).

The Pac-10 will be sorry, this year, for not having a conference championship game.

[Soonermagik]

I do believe Oregon has a game on December 1st against Oregon State in Eugene.

Oh.. I wasn't aware of that. Anyways, they are playing a team that is not as highly ranked as Missouri or Kansas will be. No doubt it is a rivalry game, but when you see a #4 against a #5 or a #3 versus a #4 or whatever it is that will be huge, especially in a big 12 championship game.

[cheezyq]

Before we get too far into this, how about we actually focus on WINNING our remaining games first, eh?

Please understand that I say the following with the utmost respect for a fellow Sooner....

Why do fans say stuff like this? Sure the TEAM must focus on winning all their games, and focus on the next game, and not get ahead of themselves. But the fans? We're SUPPOSED to get excited about our team's future and discuss scenarios and do analysis and explain "what ifs" and so on and so forth.

Let the team focus on the next opponent and winning their games. For our part, we can discuss whatever we want, no matter how far into the future. Because we're FANS.

On that note, we're gonna be AWESOME next year. Ok, so that sounded aggyish, but I'm sure you get my point.

Rant over. You may proceed as scheduled.

[Soonermagik]

Normally, having to play a conference championship game only can hurt a national title contender (nothing to gain by winning a game you should and everything to lose). But, in this case, it will help the Big XII winner. By beating a top 4 team, whoever wins that game will vault over #2 Oregon should the top 4 all win out (until the Big XII Championship game).

The Pac-10 will be sorry, this year, for not having a conference championship game.

That is the same way I look at it too. If Oregon had to play USC in a championship game and beat them they would be beating a top 10 team. However, they are playing a lower ranked team and will not move anywhere because of it. I have been hoping for a long time Kansas would jump us, because that means we aren't supposed to beat them. :D

Imagine if we throttled a Kansas team all the love we would get. Plus, the computers would go crazy for us. We just have to hope Kansas wins out and we smack them in the Big 12 title game and I say we are easily in. :)

[MarylandSooner]

I am believing that LSU and Oregon lose in the next two weeks, KU moves to number one and goes undefeated and plays number two OU in the Big Twelve Championship Game. Now that is a scenario. The end game is #1 OU vs #2 West Virginia for National Title.

[TopDawg]

Please understand that I say the following with the utmost respect for a fellow Sooner....

Why do fans say stuff like this? Sure the TEAM must focus on winning all their games, and focus on the next game, and not get ahead of themselves. But the fans? We're SUPPOSED to get excited about our team's future and discuss scenarios and do analysis and explain "what ifs" and so on and so forth.

Let the team focus on the next opponent and winning their games. For our part, we can discuss whatever we want, no matter how far into the future. Because we're FANS.

On that note, we're gonna be AWESOME next year. Ok, so that sounded aggyish, but I'm sure you get my point.

Rant over. You may proceed as scheduled.

Shouldn't you be breaking down Red Raider game films?

[josh09]

Please understand that I say the following with the utmost respect for a fellow Sooner....

Why do fans say stuff like this? Sure the TEAM must focus on winning all their games, and focus on the next game, and not get ahead of themselves. But the fans? We're SUPPOSED to get excited about our team's future and discuss scenarios and do analysis and explain "what ifs" and so on and so forth.

Let the team focus on the next opponent and winning their games. For our part, we can discuss whatever we want, no matter how far into the future. Because we're FANS.

On that note, we're gonna be AWESOME next year. Ok, so that sounded aggyish, but I'm sure you get my point.

Rant over. You may proceed as scheduled.

Jeez, dont get your panties all in a bunch....

:D

Thats actually what i meant though, the team. The fans can talk about whatever they wish.

[BermudaSooner]

I've got a question about Ohio State losing to Michigan...wouldn't it be better if Ohio State won since Michigan played Oregon?

Interesting...possibly, but since OSU is ranked above us in all of the computer polls, I believe a loss for a team ranked ahead of us in the computer polls more directly helps us than a loss for one of Oregon's opponents.

[BermudaSooner]

That is the same way I look at it too. If Oregon had to play USC in a championship game and beat them they would be beating a top 10 team. However, they are playing a lower ranked team and will not move anywhere because of it. I have been hoping for a long time Kansas would jump us, because that means we aren't supposed to beat them. :D

Imagine if we throttled a Kansas team all the love we would get. Plus, the computers would go crazy for us. We just have to hope Kansas wins out and we smack them in the Big 12 title game and I say we are easily in. :)

This was really what I was trying to test. How much do we need to gain to be able to pass Oregon? We are very far behind them right now. I tried to be fairly aggressive with the picks--even to say that we pass Oregon on both polls (but not by much). The problem is with Oregon firmly in 2nd or 3rd of each of the computer polls, I don't see us gaining enough ground without a lot of help. Basically we need Oregon or LSU to lose.

The computers use the quality of your opponents, and the quality of your opponents' opponents. I'm too lazy to look up the record's of Oregon's and OU's opponents' opponents, but the record of Oregon's opponents thus far is:

53-38

OU's opponents are:

50-56

(both records include the losses or wins to Oregon and OU).

Over the next 3 weeks, Oregon plays teams that are currently 15-15,

and OU plays opponents that are currently 22-9, so we make up some nice ground, but I don't think enough.

Oregon's best wins are:

9-1 ASU
8-2 USC

OU's best wins are:
9-1 Mizzou
9-2 UT

Oregon's best wins won't change but will become likely:
10-2 USC and
10-2 ASU

or

11-1 ASU and
9-3 USC

but OU's could improve to:

10-2 Mizzou and 12-0 KU

or

11-1 Mizzou and 10-2 UT

Oregon's loss is to 6-4 Cal, OU's loss to 5-6 Colorado.

Oregon's "Worst" wins are:

3-7 Stanford (who beat USC)
3-7 Washington
4-6 Wash ST.

OU's "Worst" wins are:

0-10 Utah State
1-8 North Texas
3-8 Baylor
3-8 ISU

This is where we are getting killed. Plus we've got Ohio State and ASU ahead of us in each of the computer polls as well. We absolutely have to pass them to gain ground on Oregon (or have OSU and ASU pass Oregon, thereby narrowing the gap between them and us).

OSU's opponents are 55-57, soon to be 63-60 after Michigan.

ASU's opponents are 48-51, soon to be 60-59

A win over an undefeated KU helps...but I'm afraid it isn't enough. We need help.

[cvsooner]

We need either LSU or Oregon to lose once more. If they both lost it would almost insure us a spot (assuming we win out, of course).

If they both lose again, I'd say it'd be us against tOSU or WV. Or...gawd forbid...Hawaii. Watched them play the other night. Dudes are really fast. Bozo State will have their hands full.

[OklaPony]

OR how about an LSU loss in the SEC champ.?

That would be nice.

I totally agree! I'd rather see the Cajun Kitties take a beating in their CCG and we get to throttle the Ducks in Nawlins.