Does OU need a team ahead of them to lose?

[Readyfor8]

First of all, I am very disappointed to see no one make a case for the Sooners to be 2nd or 3rd in the country, in the national media. Remember the best two wins in college football belonging to USF 4 weeks ago? Well don't look now but the two best wins in college football currently belong to Oklahoma.

Oklahoma has wins over 6 Missouri, and 14 Texas. LSU has wins over 11 Virginia Tech and 15 Florida, Oregon has wins over 9 Arizona St. and 12 Michigan. And both Kansas and Ohio St. have zero wins over any top 25 BCS ranked teams. Where is the love from the national media, I guess they just haven't noticed yet.

But on to the question. Does OU need anyone to lose? Oklahoma will have prove a compelling case to be moved into the number 2 spot ahead of the other teams, this means the most wins over BCS opponents in the top 25 at the end of the season and the conference championship games for this to work. The BCS currently has 4 teams ranked ahead of the Sooners. The only one we have any control over is Kansas and so I will start with them, I will assume all other teams win out.

Kansas will have one win over Missouri, and if the beat OU and Missouri I think they should play for a National Championship, but I don't think it will happen.

LSU will have wins over Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Florida, and Georgia in the best possible scenario for the Tigers. Georgia will play Auburn, and Kentucky. The Kentucky will play Tennessee, and Georgia. Alabama will play Auburn. Auburn will play Georgia and Alabama. And Virgina Tech will play Boston College. It is not unreasonable to think 5 of the teams LSU will have beaten will have another loss before the end of the season however there are 3 games in which the teams LSU played must lose, if the highest ranked wins in each scenario, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn will all lose games and thus it is possible only Florida, Virginia tech and Georgia will remain in the BCS top 25 at the end of the season, at the very least most of these teams will be out of the top 20. And none of these teams will be ranked in the top 10. Projected 4 wins over teams in the top 25 none best win over Top 15 Florida.

Ohio State will have played Michigan that is there will be their only quality win. Michigan will not be ranked in the top 10 of the BCS if they lose to OSU. Edit: Penn State is also 23rd missed them in all the numbers. Projected 2 wins over teams in the top 25, best win over top 15 Michigan

Oregon will have wins over USC, Arizona St., and Michigan. If the top 4 win out, two of these teams will lose again. USC and Arizona St. play each other this weekend. Michigan once again hurts and opponent ahead of us by losing. Ohio St. vs. Michigan is a win win win no matter who wins that game for us. No teams Oregon will have played will be in the Top 10. If USC wins vs. Arizona St. they will knock on the door of the Top 10 but I wouldn't project them above 11th. Projected 3 wins over teams in the top 25, best win over Top 15 USC.

Now here is where it gets sticky. Oklahoma will have wins over Kansas, Missouri, and Texas in the top 25. If Texas wins out they will be in the top 10 guaranteed. The why on that is simple, there are 10 teams in the top 13 that play each other, Kansas will play Missouri1, Oklahoma will play either Kansas or Missouri2, Virgina Tech will play Boston College 3, Ohio State will play Michigan 4, and LSU will play Georgia 5. That is guaranteed 4 spots Texas will move up and it is possible it will be 5 spots to 8th. If we play Kansas and beat them that means Missouri will probably be top 15 after losing to a top 5 BCS team, and Kansas will be top 15 after losing to a top 5 BCS team, and it is possible Kansas is still ranked in the top 10 after losing to Oklahoma. Projected 3 wins over teams ranked the top 15, Best win over top 10 Texas.

If all the current top 3 teams in the BCS win out and Oklahoma wins out Oklahoma will have the best resume of at least Oregon and LSU, and the only reason I don't include Ohio State in that is they would be undefeated. So the short and sweet of it is this, Oklahoma does need some teams to lose, but we are guaranteed those losses. It would be very easy to say a lot of the teams that LSU has currently in the top 25 of the BCS won't be ranked at the end of the season, the only reason I have them having 4 teams ranked is because I really have no clue who they would move up into the top 25 to replace them. Ohio State will probably have a big 10 team back door into the top 25 at the end of the season because of all of these top ranked teams facing each other. And although Oregon will have a win over USC, I see them knocking on the door of the top 10 along with Florida, but not in the top 10.

[soonermeteor]

Yes. Meet current media darlings LSU and Oregon. Oh, and they are happy with letting Ohio State skate its way through garbage to the title game and get blown out again.

We might have the slightest hope of slipping past Oregon with a win over an undefeated Kansas for the big 12 title.

[Crucifax Autumn]

I think this was a pretty good analysis of the possibilities.

[Readyfor8]

Yes. Meet current media darlings LSU and Oregon. Oh, and they are happy with letting Ohio State skate its way through garbage to the title game and get blown out again.

We might have the slightest hope of slipping past Oregon with a win over an undefeated Kansas for the big 12 title.

Did you read the damn post or did you just post yes? I think we have a good shot of slipping past LSU and Oregon in the computers, and if we rank as high as 3rd after beating Kansas in the Human polls we will play in the National Title game.

[soonermeteor]

Did you read the damn post or did you just post yes? I think we have a good shot of slipping past LSU and Oregon in the computers, and if we rank as high as 3rd after beating Kansas in the Human polls we will play in the National Title game.

Thats why I went straight to media darlings. You made an excellent post, it was nothing against you and I agree completely with what you said. I'm just looking through the media's green, red, and purple tinted glasses. No need to get all ****y and neg.

[Mixer!]

:les: I'M A MEDIA DARLING!

[Soonerfan1993]

Hey I'll take Ohio St in the NC game. They won't have a win over a single team ranked in the Top 15 of the bcs by seasons end and OU would have 3 possibly in the Top 10.

[Sco]

While I agree with your logic, I think many coaches have a short memory. This being said, if Oklahoma plays Kansas in the CCG and beats them soundly, I'm still not convinced Oklahoma passes LSU. If everyone wins, I see best case scenario a #3 ranking. It doesn't help that Oklahoma is getting absolutely no love from the computers (thank you, Colorado).

[Crucifax Autumn]

That computer love gets better every week. Just be patient and we'll be in the top 6 or so in all the computer polls. Don't forget...the higher the computer number, the better when you look at the full bcs rankings.

[Readyfor8]

We are currently 7th in the computers, we will take a hit there this week. However we will still move up a spot in the computers if USC beats Arizona State, because Arizona State is ranked 5th in the computers. Also while we will gain some minimal ground on Oregon if Arizona State loses to USC especially if Arizona State is dropped from the BCS polls all together.

Also if Boston College loses at Maryland we will gain another spot in the computers.

To see us jump from 5th to 3rd by beating Kansas in the computers I don't think is too much to ask for. Michigan for example is currently ranked 15th in the Harris, 13th in the Coaches, and 13th by the computers, its not hard to see a Human poll average of 4th, and a computer ranking of 3rd or 2nd being ranked 2nd if we have alot of overall votes by the humans.

Don't get me wrong I think it's going to be hairy and really tight, a loss will cement the BCS Birth, but we aren't out of this if no one ahead of us loses. And if Kansas wins out they will be pushed pretty high. Beating a 2nd ranked Kansas team in the BigXII title might give us a number 2 computer ranking.

The best win for us is Michigan over Ohio State, it will free up a lot of number 1 votes and probably move us into the title game.

[stoops the eternal pimp]

yes

[Crucifax Autumn]

I have to agree with that too. But I also have faith we will slide in there.

[stoops the eternal pimp]

LSU will lose.
Ohio St will lose.
Kansas will lose.

[Crucifax Autumn]

And almost as important, teams behind us will lose and move our opponents higher in the polls. If we can have victories over 3 top 10/15 teams at the end we'll be damn strong in the computers.

[rhombic21]

All I know is that:

- We need to keep winning
- We need Texas to keep winning (yuck!)
- We need Missouri and Kansas to win until they play each other
- It probably helps us more to play an undefeated Kansas than a 1-loss Missouri team (although either would likely be ranked pretty high by that point).

It's kind of hard to say at this point. I think I'd rather have LSU or Ohio State lose than Oregon, if I had to choose one team to try and get in over. Oregon doesn't play a CCG, and they close against a fairly weak set of opponents, which would make it easier for us to jump them in the polls if we could beat an undefeated Kansas team that would potentially be in the top 3 by that point, in the Big 12 title game.

[bcgvh]

LSU will lose.
Ohio St will lose.
Kansas will lose.

WHOOO!!!!!!!

[Crucifax Autumn]

I'd like to think we're the only team in the top 25 to win out with an exception for Texass only to help us in the computer rankings.

[SoonerKnight]

Most of those teams will lose. LSU and Oklahoma will be the most likely to win out! Don't forget AZ is looking good the last two games maybe they are getting used to the offense. Mike Stoops could come up with some big upsets in the Pac-10!

[SOONERnTx]

This thread makes me very happy! :)

[Soonerfan1993]

We just need LSU or Ohio State to go down. We will jump Oregon with a win over a 12-0 KU or 11-1 Mizzou in the big 12 title game.

[MojoRisen]

I am happy to see people crunching numbers to see if we will jump Oregon at the end of the year! I guess it is possible with all the formula's - I feel in my gut though that we have to win every game convincingly here on in with exception of the CCG - just win. To jump Oregon in the media polls let alone computers.

My gut tells me we need OHio St LSU and Oregon 2 of the three to loose a game.

LSU facing Georgia in Atlanta could be interesting - Ohio st facing Michigan could be interesting - even though I think Ohio St is 10 points better than Michigan even at the big house.

Oregon - should walk on all the above but you never know playing away from home against a streaky UCLA team and Arizona is known to pull off a great defensive game and upset at least once a year. ie Cal last year!

Come on Mike Stoops!!!!

[The Maestro]

Colorado is the worst team anyone in the top 5 has lost to. That's the issue. Blowing 17 point second half leads against a team that is now 5-5 is inexcusable. I agree with your "win" points, but the "loss" issue makes our case the ugliest.

[kruss1971]

There are a few things to consider with this post.

1. Projected wins over Top 25 teams is not what the computer favor most. The computers favor the wins over Top 25 teams at the time the game is played.

2. Kentucky beat LSU.

So, looking at the numbers that the computers go by and given that OSU, Oregon, LSU, and our Sooners all win out...

OSU - 4 wins over Top 25 teams...over Top 10? 1 if Michigan makes it into the Top 10
LSU - LSU may have 7 wins over Top 25 opponents after their title game. If Arkansas tops Tennessee they'll move into the rankings. After their title game, LSU may also have 3 wins over Top 10 teams if Tennessee drops another game and Georgia wins out. There is still a lot to be determined for LSUs computer scenario.
Oregon - 2 wins over Top 25 teams...best win over ASU, #4 at the time
Sooners - 3 wins over Top 25 teams. Still a lot can play out here depending on how KU and Mizzou finish out before meeting each other. If they both win out, of course, our best win will be against the winner of their game.

OU definitely needs someone ahead of them to lose. There is absolutely no way that OU jumps into 1 or 2 if all teams win out AND all of the teams we've beaten or Colorado wins out.

[Boomer.....]

For what it's worth, Lou Holtz was saying that the winner of the Big 12 should be the #2 team in the nation, assuming that Ohio State doesn't lose.

[MojoRisen]

Ohio St & LSU needs to loose - or have Ohio St loose and we jump Oregon somehow in the polls is our best bet.

That is the way I am seeing it anyhow - not reading into all the numbers but if LSU wins out we do not jump them in the polls even if Oregon get's upset -

Either we are playing in the Fiesta - or playing LSU in New Orleans which is fine with me and or Oregon in New Orleans- either would be sweet revenge games for us!

I hope we make it- because that sugar bowl venue is better than the fiesta bowl- I wish they kept the Fiesta Bowl game in Tempe - that would be sweet.

[tigepilot]

1. Projected wins over Top 25 teams is not what the computer favor most. The computers favor the wins over Top 25 teams at the time the game is played.


I think you have that backwards.

I do think that OU will need someone ahead of them to lose because OU has the worst loss of those in the top 5. It's good to see that the other side of the argument favors OU but that loss to Colorado will look real bad when the voters go to make their last vote of the regular season.

[Lott's Bandana]

Here's my disgust with the BCS:

OU wins out it's regular season.

Misery wins out it's regular season.


If nothing changes in the top 3:

That would give us 4th-ranked Misery (11-1) vs. 5th-ranked Oklahoma (11-1) in the Big XII Championship game.

Disgusting.














.

[CatHunter]

I did not read your post, and I say yes.

[OUmillenium]

Lots of info to digest and I agree with most of it.

I think if OSU loses to Michigan, we are in.

I will also predict that the BCS champion will be a 1 loss team. Hopefully us.

[Redgiant2]

OU just lost their best pass rusher. I think making a leap of faith regarding victories over either MO or KS at this point is very unsound. The secondary had a hard enough time holding up against the Tigers with English in the game. If they do manage to win out, OSU would be the best possible opponent.

[UTsucks]

For what it's worth, Lou Holtz was saying that the winner of the Big 12 should be the #2 team in the nation, assuming that Ohio State doesn't lose.

It's worth nothing SOOOOOOOOO

[cheezyq]

For what it's worth, Lou Holtz was saying that the winner of the Big 12 should be the #2 team in the nation, assuming that Ohio State doesn't lose.

NOOOOO!!! We're doomed! DOOOOOMMMMED!

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

[QUOTE=Redgiant2]OU just lost their best pass rusher.QUOTE]


For the baylor game. I think we will squeak that one out.


English will probably be back for the TT game.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

First of all, I am very disappointed to see no one make a case for the Sooners to be 2nd or 3rd in the country, in the national media. Remember the best two wins in college football belonging to USF 4 weeks ago? Well don't look now but the two best wins in college football currently belong to Oklahoma.

Oklahoma has wins over 6 Missouri, and 14 Texas. LSU has wins over 11 Virginia Tech and 15 Florida, Oregon has wins over 9 Arizona St. and 12 Michigan. And both Kansas and Ohio St. have zero wins over any top 25 BCS ranked teams. Where is the love from the national media, I guess they just haven't noticed yet.

But on to the question. Does OU need anyone to lose? Oklahoma will have prove a compelling case to be moved into the number 2 spot ahead of the other teams, this means the most wins over BCS opponents in the top 25 at the end of the season and the conference championship games for this to work. The BCS currently has 4 teams ranked ahead of the Sooners. The only one we have any control over is Kansas and so I will start with them, I will assume all other teams win out.

Kansas will have one win over Missouri, and if the beat OU and Missouri I think they should play for a National Championship, but I don't think it will happen.

LSU will have wins over Kentucky, Alabama, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Florida, and Georgia in the best possible scenario for the Tigers. Georgia will play Auburn, and Kentucky. The Kentucky will play Tennessee, and Georgia. Alabama will play Auburn. Auburn will play Georgia and Alabama. And Virgina Tech will play Boston College. It is not unreasonable to think 5 of the teams LSU will have beaten will have another loss before the end of the season however there are 3 games in which the teams LSU played must lose, if the highest ranked wins in each scenario, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Alabama, and Auburn will all lose games and thus it is possible only Florida, Virginia tech and Georgia will remain in the BCS top 25 at the end of the season, at the very least most of these teams will be out of the top 20. And none of these teams will be ranked in the top 10. Projected 4 wins over teams in the top 25 none best win over Top 15 Florida.

Ohio State will have played Michigan that is there will be their only quality win. Michigan will not be ranked in the top 10 of the BCS if they lose to OSU. Edit: Penn State is also 23rd missed them in all the numbers. Projected 2 wins over teams in the top 25, best win over top 15 Michigan

Oregon will have wins over USC, Arizona St., and Michigan. If the top 4 win out, two of these teams will lose again. USC and Arizona St. play each other this weekend. Michigan once again hurts and opponent ahead of us by losing. Ohio St. vs. Michigan is a win win win no matter who wins that game for us. No teams Oregon will have played will be in the Top 10. If USC wins vs. Arizona St. they will knock on the door of the Top 10 but I wouldn't project them above 11th. Projected 3 wins over teams in the top 25, best win over Top 15 USC.

Now here is where it gets sticky. Oklahoma will have wins over Kansas, Missouri, and Texas in the top 25. If Texas wins out they will be in the top 10 guaranteed. The why on that is simple, there are 10 teams in the top 13 that play each other, Kansas will play Missouri1, Oklahoma will play either Kansas or Missouri2, Virgina Tech will play Boston College 3, Ohio State will play Michigan 4, and LSU will play Georgia 5. That is guaranteed 4 spots Texas will move up and it is possible it will be 5 spots to 8th. If we play Kansas and beat them that means Missouri will probably be top 15 after losing to a top 5 BCS team, and Kansas will be top 15 after losing to a top 5 BCS team, and it is possible Kansas is still ranked in the top 10 after losing to Oklahoma. Projected 3 wins over teams ranked the top 15, Best win over top 10 Texas.

If all the current top 3 teams in the BCS win out and Oklahoma wins out Oklahoma will have the best resume of at least Oregon and LSU, and the only reason I don't include Ohio State in that is they would be undefeated. So the short and sweet of it is this, Oklahoma does need some teams to lose, but we are guaranteed those losses. It would be very easy to say a lot of the teams that LSU has currently in the top 25 of the BCS won't be ranked at the end of the season, the only reason I have them having 4 teams ranked is because I really have no clue who they would move up into the top 25 to replace them. Ohio State will probably have a big 10 team back door into the top 25 at the end of the season because of all of these top ranked teams facing each other. And although Oregon will have a win over USC, I see them knocking on the door of the top 10 along with Florida, but not in the top 10.

Good post. While I think even most sooner fans would concede that LSU has the most talented team in the country, on merit I don't think they have any better case than we do. Given some of their close calls I think it at least cracked open the door a little.

If you look at the Harris polls and coaches polls our margin compared to LSU and Oregon is actually pretty small. Realistically I think unless LSU either loses or struggles to win a couple more times and we win impressively in most if not all of our games we probably won't jump LSU.

I think it is not only possible but very likely that we can jump Oregon. They have already had their biggest wins behind them while we have a CCG game looming. Right or wrong the last thing voters will be comparing BYE week to a CCG and

Again if you look at the two human polls OU isn't far behind LSU and Oregon.

A hypothetical that isn't terrible likely but I disagree on one point. IF KU went undefeated and beat MU and OU they would jump LSU. You would see a big shift in the human polls toward an undefeated team with back-to-back wins over BCS top 10 teams. There would be a lot of talking heads saying LSU or Oregon are better teams but KU would be in the game. JMO

[OU_Sooners75]

Ohio State will lose a game.
LSU will lose another as well.
Oregon may win out.
KU will lose at least once.

OU is sitting pretty as long as we take care of business.

[The Maestro]

I'm not sold on LSU's talent on offense. Yes, at receiver they are very talented. Flynn is very average, though, and if Jacob Hester is the best running back you can come up with then you have issues. Dood looks like a CPA, not a running back. Flynn could very easily had two more INT's that Bama dropped Saturday. Major drop off at QB from last year.

Oregon has the best offense in the nation and I like OU's offense more than LSU's. The one thing I agree with is giving LSU credit Saturday that they did not go "prevent"...bringing the house the entire game is what led to them getting the fumble and the game winner. Credit to Pellini.

[rhombic21]

Yeah, I'm not sold on LSU either. Their defense seems a little banged up, and I think was over-rated to begin with. Offensively, their OL seems to struggle at times, and they have definite issues at WR. No questioning their ability at RB though -- talk about depth.

But, we still have a pretty tough road before we even get to that point. Tech will be a difficult game, and Oklahoma State has finally gotten the "World's Greatest Offense" in gear, despite their meltdown against Texas. And then either Missouri or Kansas would be a very difficult game in the Big 12 Title game (personally, I'd rather play Kansas than have to deal with Missouri again -- too many weapons on offense and with our past issues of turning the ball over, they scare me).

[Jdog]

Did you read the damn post or did you just post yes? I think we have a good shot of slipping past LSU and Oregon in the computers, and if we rank as high as 3rd after beating Kansas in the Human polls we will play in the National Title game.

Ready, did you read your own post? LSU didn't beat Kentucky!

The way I see it, if they all win out -
-LSU will have top 25 wins over Bama, Auburn, Florida, and Georgia and will have their loss to a top 25 (or so) Kentucky

-Oklahoma will have top 25 wins over Mizzou, Texas, and Kansas and their only loss to a verrrry lowly ranked CU team (this is what kills us -its why the computers still have UO, ASU and BC ranked above us)

-Oregon, will have wins over SUC and ASU (I don't understand why the computers have UO ahead of us - the only thing I can figure is that the Computers have as a part of their formula a competitors ranking at the time of their game?)

If we beat Kansas we should jump Oregon - but probably not LSU or tOSU. So we have to hope that Arkansas beats LSU or that Georgia wins a SEC championship game, and/or Michigan beats tOSU.

[Crucifax Autumn]

or all of the above!

[SoonerKnight]

We need a convincing win over TT! We have not shown to be a good road team. We play well against TT and we will rise in the polls. LSU has struggled at home and on the road. They are overrated!

[Blues1]

ALL I KNOW IS - We needed two teams above us to lose last Saturday, and that happened - ***BC and Arizona State*** went down..... :) - and the way this season has gone we All know "ANYTHING" can Happen...Something tells me "MIKE STOOPS" may hold the Golden Key for Oklahoma ....Keep Rockin' Mike..... :)

[Jdog]

ALL I KNOW IS - We needed two teams above us to lose last Saturday, and that happened - ***BC and Arizona State*** went down..... :) - and the way this season has gone we All know "ANYTHING" can Happen...Something tells me "MIKE STOOPS" may hold the Golden Key for Oklahoma ....Keep Rockin' Mike..... :)

Unfortunately Mike hasn't rocked since 04 - Me thinks by the looks of the permanently popped out vein on his forehead that he'll be stroking out any day.

[MamaMia]

The computer ranking is all screwed up now. Thats what it is. :pop: