Remaining Schedules Favor OU in BCS Race

[Octavian]

We dropped to #6 in the BCS but....look at these schedules; each team above us has at least 2 major hurdles left on their remaining schedule.


The road to New Orleans will not be easy for any of these programs.



Ohio State


10/27 at #25 Penn State

11/03 Wisconsin

11/10 Illinois

11/17 at #20 Michigan


@ Happy Valley and @ a resurgent Michigan are gonna be tough. Their D is good but their offense is no powerhouse. Both the Wolverines and Lions are more than capable of beating the Buckeyes away from Columbus.

Illinois is better than usual and Whiskey is 6-2.


No automatic win for them left.



Boston College


10/25 at #8 Va Tech

11/03 Florida St

11/10 at Maryland

11/17 at Clemson

11/24 Miami

ACC Championship Game: ??




If this team makes it through unscathed and gets into the National Championship Game, then it'd be a perfect fit for this year. Surely though, no way they make it without at least 1 loss....2 or 3 wouldn't be shocking.


LSU


11/03 at #24 Alabama

11/10 La Tech

11/17 at Ole Miss

11/23 Arkansas

SEC Championship Game: Florida?




They'll bulldoze Ole Miss and La Tech (whats up with La Tech in November?)

They'll also probably beat Arkansas in Baton Rouge.

But @ Alabama will be interesting. They're not as good on the road (either), and the Tuscaloosa crowd and Saban will have the Tide playing above their heads.

And then the SEC CG. College football rematches are usually bad for the initial winner. Florida is definitely capable of beating LSU on a neutral field and if they meet, I bet it happens.





Arizona St.


10/27 #21 California

11/03 at #5 Oregon

11/10 at UCLA

11/22 #12 USC

12/01 Arizona


Gotta be honest, I haven't seen them play a full game. But, like Boston College, them getting through the year undefeated seems incredibly unlikely when you look at the schedule. USC and Cal come to town, and they have road trips to Eugene and UCLA. Just don't see it.


Oregon


10/27 #12 USC

11/03 #4 Arizona St

11/15 at Arizona

11/24 at UCLA

12/01 Oregon St


They get USC and Arizona St. in Eugene, but they're no gimmees by any means. A trip to the LA against the Bruins (who are 4-0 in Pac-10 play) isn't an automatic win either.



Given these schedules....I really like Oklahoma's chances of playing in the National Championship Game should we finish the year playing like we're capable of playing (...and feel the same way about USC).


We've got an off-week. Hopefully the staff and the team get to rest, study and learn, and get regrouped for the stretch run. We get 3 out of 4 in Norman (and our chances at home are good against just about anyone anytime). The trip to Lubbock could get dicey though, and --if we make it-- the Big XII Championship Game will be tough. But we're the best team in the conference....when we're playing up to our potential.






We'll see.....but if we just play up to our ability and get a few breaks -- which seem very possible -- we have a great chance to play for #8 in Jan. 08.

[Octavian]

thanks mods. :O

[Texas Golfer]

After playing the worst team in the Big XII and barely leaving Ames with a win, we don't deserve to play in the national championship game. We couldn't win that game the way we've played our conference games.

[olevetonahill]

thanks mods. :O
WTF did the Mods pisz in your post toasties ?:pop:

[kevpks]

After playing the worst team in the Big XII and barely leaving Ames with a win, we don't deserve to play in the national championship game. We couldn't win that game the way we've played our conference games.

I guess that depends on how you define "deserve." Does Ohio State deserve to go after playing three teams from Ohio (and not Cincy) in their non-conference schedule and playing in a really weak Big-10? Would USC deserve to go after losing to Stanford at home? Would Oregon deserve to go after losing to an increasingly mediocre Cal team at home? If we win out and the two polls plus the computers rank us first or second, I think we deserve it. No team is blowing anybody away this year.

[Texas Golfer]

I guess that depends on how you define "deserve." Does Ohio State deserve to go after playing three teams from Ohio (and not Cincy) in their non-conference schedule and playing in a really weak Big-10? Would USC deserve to go after losing to Stanford at home? Would Oregon deserve to go after losing to an increasingly mediocre Cal team at home? If we win out and the two polls plus the computers rank us first or second, I think we deserve it. No team is blowing anybody away this year.

Every team plays a weak non-conference schedule. The Big 10 is weak but most say that the Big XII is, too. USC is not ranked above us. Oregon leaped over us but I would rank their loss to a ranked California team as better than our loss to an unranked Colorado team.

We can win out and still may not make the final cut of two. We showed that this weekend when we won and two Pac-10 teams leaped over us.

[Chrisrokc]

Those pac 10 teams will lose that jumped us. USC will lose again most likely also. A W is a W. OU played horrible but they didn't lose. If they win out they will be in the BCS Nation Championship. Let time tell.

[Leroy Lizard]

If Va Tech beats BC and wins out, they could go over OU.

[Sooner Eclipse]

We can win out and still may not make the final cut of two. We showed that this weekend when we won and two Pac-10 teams leaped over us.

I hear ya and agree. But, we were going to get jumped no matter how bad or well we played. several teams below us but above ASU and Oregon lost. We got jumped by LSU in the polls and stayed at the same position. The computers penalized us for playing ISU, not just for winning "ugly". Adding a W from the ISU game to the computer polls weakened our average, not because we played bad, but because they are 1-6. (computer wise, we would have been better off with a bye week) We could have played like gangbusters against ISU and would still be in the exact same position as we are now.

Everyone needs to chill out a little bit. We still have games against aTm, TTU, oSu and the CCG. Baylor will hurt our computer average just because they suck. The others will increase our average. As long as we don't drop significantly in the human polls, we'll be OK. There is a 50/50 chance at least 2 of the 3 teams above us in the polls lose one more game. If they do, we should make the game.

That said, we better quit playing stupid, uninspired football, or it won't matter.

[douxpaysan]

Oregon leaped over us but I would rank their loss to a ranked California team as better than our loss to an unranked Colorado team.

We can win out and still may not make the final cut of two. We showed that this weekend when we won and two Pac-10 teams leaped over us.
I agree with some of what you say but Cal couldn't beat us at home. Simple as that, the Colorado loss was a trap ROAD loss....big difference. Stoops usually can get his teams to avoid emotional hills and valleys. This is one of his youngest teams but that just means by January....no one is gonna want to be playing Oklahoma.

[Octavian]

After playing the worst team in the Big XII and barely leaving Ames with a win, we don't deserve to play in the national championship game.


If the season ended today, I'd agree. But it doesn't.


We'll see just how many teams "deserve" to be on the big stage at the end of the regular season. OU's Iowa State win may not look so bad come December.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Nice post...and pretty much what I've been saying for weeks. The other contenders all have 2-3 very tough games left. We have 1 tough game in Lubbock and get to face the cowgirls at home so we should get through that one.

As those PAC 10 teams knock each other off they not only get an extra loss, but their SOS drops too. Same for the SEC. The Big Ten Won't matter much after Ohio State loses 2-3 games.

[KantoSooner]

That said, we better quit playing stupid, uninspired football, or it won't matter.

That's it in nutshell.

[CitySooner]

Nice layout on the contenders Octavian :) . The mighty Sooners no doubt have the easy road compared to others as far as scheduling goes. The home games don't concern me too much, as we should win those handily. However, if the offense falls asleep in Lubbuck as it did in Ames.......then all of this conjecture won't mean a pile of beans. I know one thing for sure, though......this has been one hell of a college football season, and more fun is on the way!! :D

[tbl]

I'm confused as to how the computers have Missouri ranked above us. Doesn't make sense...

[KRYPTON]

If we continue to play down to the level of our competition, or worse if we're on the road, this discussion will be MOOT! like Jesse Jackson on SNL.

The way we've played in our two 'true' roadgames thus far makes me think that Tech will roto-root us if we do it again.

[tbl]

This is one of his youngest teams but that just means by January....no one is gonna want to be playing Oklahoma.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Stoops doesn't have the best record in January... Just sayin...

[OklahomaTuba]

We gotta get past bi-week first folks.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

If Va Tech beats BC and wins out, they could go over OU.

Lizard. Not only is your glass half empty, but the other half is filled with armadillo pizz.

Tell me do you fly a white flag in front of your house?

[Position Limit]

i agree texas golfer. the thing about it is, the same people bitching today about the bcs were the same people praising it in 2003 and 2004. this ranking this week is such a non-event. what a bunch of drama queens. i love how wishful thinking translates into which teams are going to lose later down the road. i guess the colorado loss wasn't enough of a reality check and ou is guaranteed to win out. whatever.

[IronHorseSooner]

I turned to my wife this weekend and told her that no matter what happened, we would be jumped in the BCS. We are lucky that UK and South Cackalacky lost. But, I was not impressed by ANYBODY, to include our Sooners, this weekend. That being said, it would not shock me to see OU-KU in the CCG as a play-in game for the BCS Championship Game. The other slot could be WVU or USF, surprisingly.

[Scoregasm]

I agree. I like the way this is looking for us. We HAVE to win out though and that is looking tougher and tougher each week. I don't care about "style points", or anything else. Just win. That's it.

[Desert Sapper]

We're gonna get leapfrogged by USC this week when Oregon gets exposed for the fraud of a football team they are.

[stoopified]

After playing the worst team in the Big XII and barely leaving Ames with a win, we don't deserve to play in the national championship game. We couldn't win that game the way we've played our conference games.
So we should give back QUALITY wins against UT,MU?If you said that about OUr road games instead of Conference games,I can see your point.However we have a bye week and 2 more home games to prep for OUr last road game at TT.I still think we run the table and beat KU or MU for the Big12 title.

I freely admit I see the world through Crimson lenses(genetic gift) and I make no apologies for it.

[douxpaysan]

I freely admit I see the world through Crimson lenses(genetic gift) and I make no apologies for it.
Some of us ride on the back of the Schooner cringing and holding on for dear life...and some of us are fool enough to dance our way over the bumps in the trail.:hot: :hot: :hot:

[Octavian]

i guess the colorado loss wasn't enough of a reality check and ou is guaranteed to win out. whatever.


No one is saying that. Obviously we better be focused on each and every game and we definitely can't play like we did in Ames and expect to go anywhere but San Diego...but...


Should we play up to our potential and win out....the odds of us playing in the National Championship Game are very good because all the other major contenders have huge obstacles ahead.


There is no dominant team this year. There isn't anyone who clearly "deserves" to be in the game based on their on-field performances. But if we win out, our New Orleans chances are good.

[tbl]

We're gonna get leapfrogged by USC this week when Oregon gets exposed for the fraud of a football team they are.
No way USC jumps us at this point. I just don't see it happening.

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

USC won't jump us by beating Oregon. Look at the computer rankings. USC isn't even in the top 25 in 2 of them and is 21st overall. You might want to pinch your nose but a USC win is good for our cause.

Also no doubt we sucked in the second half at Colo and against ISU but I just don't see how some people presume we are going to play that bad every time we go on the road now.

[cvsooner]

Considering a bye week for Arizona State and Boston College were worth more than a win over Iowa State...no telling what can happen. All OU can do is win out and let things happen the way they'll happen. We lost a certain control over our destiny in the fourth quarter of a game in Boulder. It's as simple as that.

[Chrisrokc]

USC has no chance. We are golden, we just need to do one thing. WIN.

The top teams are going to lose.

[Jdog]

Our quality wins are against a weak Texas team, a weak Miami team and a good Mizzou team.

Mizzou’s only loss is to the #4 (#6) Team – that’s probably why their ahead of us in the computers polls.

On the other hand our loss is to a 4 loss Colorado team who'll probable end up at the bottom of the Big12 north - just a head of that feisty ISU team who won a moral victory last Saturday.

- OU's inconsistent play is obvious, even to the computers - They’ve got to play better against quality opponents. Unfortunately they may not play another really good opponent until the Big 12 Championship.
Bottom line – we’ve got to win out and win big, week in and week out – and forget about what the other teams have to do.

[tommieharris91]

Everyone, comps hate USC more than they hate OU. Ohh, and Oregon was exposed by a Cal team that is currently on a 2-game losing streak, but "they played well at home and were a few plays away from winning that game :stunned:."

[Desert Sapper]

Everyone, comps hate USC more than they hate OU. Ohh, and Oregon was exposed by a Cal team that is currently on a 2-game losing streak, but "they played well at home and were a few plays away from winning that game :stunned:."

Even after the loss, Herbie is still gushing about their O.

[Tulsa_Fireman]

Bottom line – we’ve got to win out and win big, week in and week out – and forget about what the other teams have to do.

But the hole is in the computer rankings where margin of victory is no longer a calculated factor. And because of that, I'd happily take heartwrenching one point victories for the rest of the haul and onto the big show over blowin' the pants off of folks with another Colorado looming over the horizon somewhere. Like they're saying...

Just win, baby. Six more times.

[Sooner02]

Sadly, just winning doesn't cut it anymore. I believe the polling has a lot to do with who is considered the "hot" team. Even though LSU lost, look where they are now, they never really suffered much for a loss and are still pumped as the best team. The top 2 teams have to be there right now because they are undefeated and are also there by virtue of preseason ranking advantage. If you don't agree, then why isn't Kansas at least 4th?

[Tulsa_Fireman]

1) We're 14th in the computer polls, one third of the BCS formula, where margin of victory is not applied in any way, shape, or form.

2) We're 4th in both the Harris and USA Today polls, 2/3rds of the BCS formula.

3) We're ranked only behind one one-loss team in the Harris and USA Today polls, the LSU squad mentioned earlier that lost to what's turned out to be a pretty sharp Kentucky squad.

4) We maintained this #4 ranking in the two subjective polls in the BCS formula, the polls that are affected by things such as margin of victory from the very subjectivity of the voting process.

5) We've backslid because of a low ranking (again, 14th) in the objective poll, the aggregate computer rankings due to obviously, our strength of schedule...

...Giving us the simple fact that subjective polling, such as the Harris and the USA Today polls, have been VERY friendly to the University of Oklahoma regardless of the margin of victory found so far in recent contests. It gives us another simple fact that Oklahoma's slip to 6th is the singular byproduct of a sickeningly low computer ranking, in and of itself.

Not because of any "hot" team bias or preseason ranking bias. Preseason ranking bias gives no validity to South Florida's ranking before their loss to Rutgers, and "hot" team bias does not explain the consistent 7 and 8 ranking of undefeated Arizona State in the Harris and USA Today polls. In other words...

The "hot" team makes no sense in the BCS formula. Oklahoma is the example of why that hypothesis is false. Preseason ranking bias makes no sense in the BCS formula. South Florida's absence, West Virginia's fall, Boston College's rise from barely sniffing pre-season top 25 polls, and USC's near disappearance act from the race disprove that.

In even more "other words"...

You're talking out your rear. Just winning cuts it just fine because as can be inferred from the subjective 2/3rds of the BCS formula and its reaction to the 17-7 victory in Ames, winning is obviously enough. It's strength of schedule and successive wins that will serve Oklahoma, not blowing a few folks out of the water. Because the only chink in the Sooner armor right now is the bevy of creampuffs on the schedule.

[IGotNoTiming]

Good Take Tulsa Fireman...

I could have said it better but I am not very good with words...

[Leroy Lizard]

I agree. Style points don't seem to matter as much this year as they have in the past. It doesn't matter how we win, as long as we win.

And if we lose, we may as well had lost by a 100.

[Sooner02]

I did not say OU's spot is due to bias. I know how the BCS works. I know we are 14th in computers and this is dragging down the average. We may not be the greatest team, but I don't know if you can find many pollsters who believe we are 14th (at this point).

However, subjectivity does play a huge part in BCS rankings in the human polls. A team that begins the season ranked highly does have an advantage over a team ranked very low preseason. If both of those two teams both progress undefeated, who do you think is going to remain higher than the other? It's simple common sense and the subjective aspect to the sport. The computers help to a degree but they are 1/3rd and do not constitute a majority of a team's BCS average.

[tommieharris91]

And if we lose, we may as well had lost by a 100.

Unless you're Oregon.

[Jdog]

Sadly, just winning doesn't cut it anymore. I believe the polling has a lot to do with who is considered the "hot" team. Even though LSU lost, look where they are now, they never really suffered much for a loss and are still pumped as the best team. The top 2 teams have to be there right now because they are undefeated and are also there by virtue of preseason ranking advantage. If you don't agree, then why isn't Kansas at least 4th?

According to the polls, LSU lost to a higher ranked team then we did. We on the other hand have two very very very weak teams on our schedule.

The more Colorado loses the more we drop.

Also, I know margin of victory is not suppose be a part of the formula - but quality of win still is. If you don't think style points aren't important, then look at our computer ranking. That is why we must win big.

[madillsoonerfan5353]

After playing the worst team in the Big XII and barely leaving Ames with a win, we don't deserve to play in the national championship game. We couldn't win that game the way we've played our conference games.


You need to watch the game, becasue I guess you didn't see Iowa State in the red zone a few different times and only come away with 7 points!! Down for the first time a half and scored 17 points, on the road! To me that show character!!! Fair weather fans suck!!!!!!

[Desert Sapper]

Maybe we just need to relax.

SOS so far:

UNT 1-6
Miami 5-3
Utah State 0-7
Tulsa 4-3
Colorado 4-4
Tejas 6-2
Mizzou 6-1
ISU 1-7

What hurt us this weekend was playing Iowa State at all -- and the fact that UNT and USU are two of the worst teams in football.

Upcoming SOS:

aTm 6-2
Baylor 3-5
@Ttech 6-2
O-State 5-3

I still think if we win out, we'll be fine. The rest will take care of itself. And if #8 doesn't happen this year, the only thing that matters is Big XII Championship #5 and a Fiesta Bowl win. The best that could come of that (aside from the obvious) is the return of all those juniors for a shot at #8. If we win #8, I think at least MK, and probably Duke and Nic Harris declare.

[tommieharris91]

I think if we win the Big 12 this year, we'll go somewhere other than the Fiesta Bowl. I don't think there are BCS tie-ins anymore.

[cvsooner]

No, there are BCS tie-ins. Big 12 champ, if available, goes to the Fiesta Bowl. At least one prediction I've seen online has us in Fiesta Bowl against Oregon...since same predictor has Ariz. State winning Pac-10. (They have Boise State going against Ariz. St. in the Rose Bowl!)

My own wild, just way out guess...I see us and West Virginia in the MNC game. As wacky as the BCS has been this year...why not?

[TUSooner]

You need to watch the game, becasue I guess you didn't see Iowa State in the red zone a few different times and only come away with 7 points!! Down for the first time a half and scored 17 points, on the road! To me that show character!!! Fair weather fans suck!!!!!!

D00d. We were playing IOWA STATE. :rolleyes:

Expressing disappointment over a truly disappointing performance is not being a "fair-weather-fan". Sure, some of us (like me) might take a little more agony than necessary from a bad showing, especially where we actually WON the game. But there's no denying that a repeat of the ISU performance against the rest of OUr schedule will not be forgiven. It's also undeniable that you don't impress the people or machines that make the BCS rankings when you step on your own weenie against an inferior opponent. You also need to recognize that we NEEDED that "character" and a clutch defensive performance to save the game because OUr usually un-crappy offense kept putting the game on the shoulders of OUr defense.

[cvsooner]

Good thing we have that defense. The teams like Hawaii and OSEwe and Louisville struggle like crazy if the offense isn't clicking...and it does happen from time to time, for whatever reasons.

It is frustrating some times, partly because we've seen what this bunch can do, and I think we were expecting a result like Utah State or North Texas, and it turned out ISU played about as well as they have all season. I never really felt the game was seriously in doubt, but it would've been nice to have about three more scores.

The most important thing, as has been pointed out, is it was a win. Period. So the offense took a day off...eh. Big deal. It's a win.

[Jdog]

1. The OSU is Undefeated
2. BC is undefeated
3. LSU lost to a 6-2 #14 team team
4. ASU is undefeated (and beat our 4-4 team by a couple of touchdowns).
5. Oregon lost to a 6-2 #21 ranked team.
6. OU lost to a 4-4 unranked team

[kevpks]

Why don't we talk about who teams beat instead of who they lost to?

Best Wins
Ohio State- @ Washington, @ Purdue (decent, but not great, road wins)
BC- @ Georgia Tech (A good road win but their true test is this week)
LSU- Florida, Auburn (the best resume by far)
ASU- Colorado, Oregon St. (no ranked teams)
Oregon- @ Michigan, @ Washington (Michigan was a good win but was in shambles at that point in the season)


I put more stock in quality wins than quality losses and it would be nice if BCS computers did the same. None of these teams blows me away. LSU is probably the best out of that group right now. I just don't see why I should kiss the Pac-10's butt just because OU had a close game on the road.

[cvsooner]

Pretty decent analysis by Pat Forde:

The Perfect Five
Start with the Perfect Five, noting that they are perfect in record only. The Dash has to ask: Is this the worst collection of unbeaten teams ever?

None has a victory over a team currently in the BCS standings. None plays in what Jeff Sagarin's computer ranks as one of the top two conferences (SEC and Big East). And none has even played what Sagarin says is a top-three team in its own conference.

In other words: You're on borrowed time, gents.

Ohio State (5), 8-0
Best win: 23-7 at Purdue (currently No. 32 according to Sagarin). The Buckeyes' only other victory over a Sagarin top-50 team was at home Saturday against No. 42 Michigan State. Four of Ohio State's wins are over teams ranked 92nd or worse.

Going gets tough: From here on out. No gimmes left, but no bloodbaths, either. Remaining opponents have a combined record of 23-9. Toughest figure to be at Penn State on Saturday (ABC, 8 p.m. ET) and at Michigan on Nov. 17.

Electability: The Buckeyes probably just need to win out to stay on top, but that doesn't mean America would relish the sight of another sketchy Big Ten champ back in a game where it was humiliated last season.

Boston College (6), 7-0
Best win: 24-10 at Georgia Tech (currently No. 26 Sagarin). The Eagles have five victories over teams ranked 70th or worse and haven't played a quality opponent since mid-September.

Going gets tough: Right now. All five remaining opponents have winning records, and none will be tougher than the first: BC visits Virginia Tech on Thursday night (ESPN, 7:30 ET). The 6-1 Hokies lose at least once at home every year, but they did pound the Eagles in Blacksburg in 2005.

Electability: Boston College doesn't have the name cachet of Ohio State with the voters, but it does currently hold down the top spot in the BCS computer composite and the No. 2 overall spot. The Eagles could be six wins away from New Orleans.

Arizona State (7), 7-0
Best win: 44-32 at home over Oregon State (currently No. 36 Sagarin). Sun Devils have played three teams ranked in triple digits and five outside the top 50. They opened with four straight at home, an underrated factor in breakout seasons.

Going gets tough: Pronto. Three of the next five opponents are ranked, starting with California on Saturday. A trip to UCLA and a Dec. 1 rivalry game with Arizona will not be easy, either.

Electability: The Sun Devils are playing a bit from behind at No. 4 in the BCS standings, but wins over Cal, Oregon and USC would be a huge boost to their strength of schedule. None of the other unbeatens has a tougher run the rest of the way.

Kansas (8), 7-0
Best win: at Kansas State (currently No. 18 Sagarin). Another team that opened with four straight home games, against the immortal likes of Central Michigan (No. 81), Southeastern Louisiana (No. 200), Toledo (No. 128) and Florida International (No. 171). Throw in Baylor at No. 112 and the Jayhawks have played almost nothing but the halt and the lame. KU has left the state once.

Going gets tough: Perhaps not until the Nov. 24 regular-season finale, a neutral-site rivalry game in Kansas City against archrival Missouri. There are two other road contests to go, at Texas A&M on Saturday (ESPN2, 7 p.m. ET) and Oklahoma State on Nov. 10, and it should be noted that the Jayhawks have a 14-game losing streak against Big 12 South teams not named Baylor.

Electability: At No. 9 in the BCS, Kansas will need some help in front of it. But it also has a user-friendly schedule that could keep the Jayhawks unbeaten a while longer while those ahead of them fall.

Hawaii (9), 7-0
Best win: at Louisiana Tech (currently No. 107 Sagarin). There is absolutely nothing here worth noting. Every opponent to date ranks in triple digits. Average Sagarin number of the motley seven: 159.3. The Warriors wouldn't even be No. 1 in I-AA.

Going gets tough: Never, really, though a three-game stretch of Fresno, at Nevada and Boise State comes close.

Electability: About as viable as Dennis Kucinich.


The Mulligan Club
The 11 one-loss teams battling the unbeatens for prime BCS real estate, and who has the best excuse for the game that got away:

LSU (10), 7-1
The loss: 43-37 in triple overtime against Kentucky

How bad was it: Not very. On the road in overtime against a ranked opponent, one week after playing a slugfest against Florida. The only real shame in defeat came from the Tigers' curious decisions not to use running back Charles Scott or backup QB Ryan Perrilloux more.

How good are the wins: Excellent. Crushed Virginia Tech in Baton Rouge. Beat Florida in the great fourth-down-conversion classic. Just survived wild game against resurgent Auburn, complete with Miles' endorsing a game-winning call that went past bold and bordered on reckless. Throwing into the end zone for the winning touchdown with a second left, when a 40-yard field goal would have done the trick, is nearly insane. Forget the danger of the clock's running out (the play could have been stopped at :03); what if the very good coverage had been 6 inches better and the ball was intercepted? They'd be dredging the bayous in search of Miles' body.


South Florida (11), 6-1
The loss: 30-27 at Rutgers How bad was it: Respectable. Good opponent, close game and the Bulls got a tough break on a 50/50 replay reversal that took away a long touchdown on a blocked field goal return. Nevertheless, USF was surprisingly soft up the middle against the run.

How good are the wins: Very. Beating West Virginia and Auburn in the opening month of the season was as strong as anything anyone did all September.

West Virginia (12), 6-1
The loss: 21-13 at South Florida

How bad was it: Not terrible. The Bulls are a quality opponent and quarterback Pat White missed more than half the game with a bruised thigh. Still, it wasn't as though the Mountaineers played brilliantly; they turned the ball over six times and never led.

How good are the wins: Zero to brag about. Best WVU can say is that it beat the No. 44 Sagarin team (Maryland). Terrapins the only victim with a current winning record.

Missouri (13), 6-1
The loss: 41-31 at Oklahoma

How bad was it: Understandable, given the fact that the Sooners were a solid favorite. Mizzou led early in the fourth quarter before surrendering 18 unanswered points and then adding a cosmetic touchdown in the final minute.

How good are the wins: Not too shabby. Neutral-field win over Illinois looks better now than it did on Sept. 1. Home blowouts of Nebraska and Texas Tech help, as well -- especially with a shaky defense's not allowing the high-powered Red Raiders a single offensive play in the red zone.

Oklahoma (14), 7-1
The loss: 27-24 at Colorado

How bad was it: Not pretty, since the Sooners blew a 17-point lead against a team now 4-4. Altitude and early kickoff played to the Buffaloes' favor, but that's not much of an excuse.

How good are the wins: Crushing Miami and outscoring Texas and Missouri -- a quality body of work, with three other semi-credible opponents to come before a potential Big 12 title game. Sooners flirted with blowing everything on Saturday by sleepwalking against Iowa State.

Oregon (15), 6-1
The loss: 31-24 at home to California

How bad was it: Quality loss -- even at home, and even to an opponent that has subsequently lost twice. Oregon led into the fourth quarter before the defense unraveled and allowed 21 points. Nearly tied the game late, but fumbled through the end zone for a touchback. Minus-four turnover margin in that game was a killer.

How good are the wins: The early beatdown of Michigan looks stronger with each passing week. Ducks haven't beaten anyone of consequence yet in the Pac-10, but that could change in a hurry with USC and Arizona State coming to Eugene on successive Saturdays.

USC (16), 6-1
The loss: 24-23 at home to Stanford

How bad was it: Inexplicable. Leave it at that.

How good are the wins: Shockingly short on substance. Nebraska and Notre Dame are great names but bad teams. Trojans haven't beaten -- or even played -- a single Sagarin top-50 team yet.

Virginia Tech (17), 6-1
The loss: 48-7 at LSU

How bad was it: Ugly and thorough, with the redeeming factor being the quality of opponent. Hard to see a team that lost by 41 points coming anywhere near a national championship game.

How good are the wins: Aside from thumping schizophrenic Clemson on the road, there is nothing to suggest greatness from the Hokies. Unless you're dazzled by beating Ohio by three touchdowns.

Virginia (18), 7-1
The loss: 23-3 at Wyoming

How bad was it: Terrible. Outgained by 352 yards? By a Mountain West opponent? Check that, a mid-pack Mountain West opponent? That stain doesn't come out, even if it did happen on the first Saturday of the season.

How good are the wins: Suspenseful, if nothing else. The Cavaliers have won two games by one point (Maryland, Connecticut), two by two points (Middle Tennessee, North Carolina) and one by five (Georgia Tech). The Cavs have trailed in the fourth quarter in four of those five white-knucklers. Zero opponents have been ranked.

Connecticut (19), 6-1
The loss: 17-16 at Virginia

How bad was it: No great shame in losing by a point on the road to a team now 7-1. But if the Huskies had punched in touchdowns instead of settling for two short field goals they could have won.

How good are the wins: UConn should apologize for one-third of its victories, thanks to dubious officiating. An apparent game-winning touchdown for Temple turned into an incomplete pass on a bad call that was upheld by worse replay review. And UConn's 21-17 win over Louisville on Friday was abetted by an atrocious call, when punt returner Larry Taylor waved for a fair catch on a punt -- then took off for a 74-yard touchdown while everyone else on the field stopped. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese admitted the call was "terrible" and phoned the league's apologies to Louisville athletic director Tom Jurich.

Boise State (20), 6-1
The loss: 24-10 at Washington How bad was it: Nothing embarrassing about a WAC team's losing to someone from the Pac-10 -- even Boise, which had won 14 straight games to this point. But the Broncos helped give it away with a minus-two turnover margin.

How good are the wins: Beating Wyoming and Southern Miss aren't bad, but they won't get the Broncos back to where they spent last bowl season.

[CitySooner]

Nice job by Forde. Really couldn't find any flaws in his reasoning; but not like I spent a lot of time looking for some ;)

[r5TPsooner]

I love my SOONERS but IMHO, they would not fare well in the National title game. OU is a very tough team at home but a very mediocre road team. Personally, I think we could beat anyone in the country if we played them at home, my fear is playing on the road with this group.

Of course, the way this year is going anything could happen and any one team can get hot/lucky and beat another. I just don't want to see another OU-SC type Bowl game ever again!

[sooner59]

Well, there is not an '04 USC team anywhere this year. They were really good. As long as we didnt play LSU in the NC game, then it wouldnt be a road game atmosphere. If we played Ohio State, Oregon, West Virginia.....pretty much anyone but LSU, then we would probably have more fans there because of proximity. I think we would fair well against USC or Oregon because the players would feel like they have #8 and revenge on the mind.

[dolemitesooner]

Your forgeting Virgina Tech, Usc, and West Virgina. We need them to all lose a game too.

The reason being is that Oklahoma's computer rankingsare not going to get much better. these teams can all pass us.

[sooner59]

We need alot of people to lose, and the thing is, I think that they all "will" lose. Except for West Virginia. I would not be surprised at all if it was OU-WVU for the NC game. How crazy would that be? Hey, I would even like our chances because stopping the run game is what our team does best.

[Octavian]

down to three...



Ohio State

11/10 Illinois

11/17 at #20 Michigan




LSU

11/10 La Tech

11/17 at Ole Miss

11/23 Arkansas

12/1 SEC Championship Game




Oregon

11/15 at Arizona

11/24 at UCLA

12/01 Oregon St



2 out of 3 must lose....somewhere somehow.


and we can't...nowhere nohow

[GreenSooner]

2 out of 3 must lose....somewhere somehow.

The best shots, by far IMO, are LSU going down in the SEC championship game and Michigan beating tOSU. On the other hand, anything is possible...

[Chrisrokc]

Well we are not looking at Kansas. I know they are not top 5 right now but look at them to be soon. If they run mizzu and go to the championship with us they will be above lsu. If we beat them they could sling shot us up above another 1 lose team.

Anyways food for thought. SHAKE AND BAKE! Things are looking good so far.

[fadada1]

i can see lsu loosing at ole miss - seriously. they'll be looking to coast to the secCG and colonel sanders with guns could suprise them.

and osu at michigan is like OU/texas. definitely helps that the game is in the ig house and it WILL be for the big10 title (who'd a thunk it... michigan winning the big10).

the tards from stillwater hurt us by choking - we still need to take care of business against them and tech (obviously). i think our best bet is to have KU stay undefeated and meet them in the CCG. should we win that, the numbers will be VERY close for the bcs.

[swardboy]

After seeing Arkansas handle S. Carolina, I'm liking our chances there....

[Leroy Lizard]

No chance.

I suggest OU considers leaving English out of the lineup against Tech, as that game is starting to look inconsequential. Even if we lose, beating OSU will still get us into the conference championship game. For this year, a conference title is our goal. Next year, national title.

This assumes we beat Baylor. I think we will.

[Egeo]

After seeing Arkansas handle S. Carolina, I'm liking our chances there....
id be shocked if that game is even close!

[Vegas Vic]

the tards from stillwater hurt us by choking

That's actually not true.

OU needs Texas to be as high as possible in the computer rankings to help out in that portion of the BCS rankings. It's also good that Missouri continues to win. The best scenerio for OU would be for Kansas to win out, Missouri to lose just the one more game to Kansas, Texas to win out, and then OU beat Kansas in the Big XII Championship game. That would maximize OU's computer ranking.

[toneful]

That's actually not true.

OU needs Texas to be as high as possible in the computer rankings to help out in that portion of the BCS rankings. It's also good that Missouri continues to win. The best scenerio for OU would be for Kansas to win out, Missouri to lose just the one more game to Kansas, Texas to win out, and then OU beat Kansas in the Big XII Championship game. That would maximize OU's computer ranking.

word.

Looks real good for Ducks, though. They have easiest road to MNC, it seems. We may have to look for help from Michigan and the SEC east champ.

[Desert Sapper]

word.

Looks real good for Ducks, though. They have easiest road to MNC, it seems. We may have to look for help from Michigan and the SEC east champ.

Go Mike Stoops! Beat the Ducks!

[Octavian]

...and then there were two.



LSU


11/17 at Ole Miss

11/23 Arkansas

SEC Championship Game: Georgia?




Oregon


11/15 at Arizona

11/24 at UCLA

12/01 Oregon St



We only need one to slip up....somewhere.

[okiewaker]

I know,,, one game at a time, but if we win out we will leap the ducks by a slim margin. IMHO

[Tulsa_Fireman]

We only need one to slip up....somewhere.

Let's just hope it's somewhere over there, not somewhere over here.

[NC_Tigah]

I know,,, one game at a time, but if we win out we will leap the ducks by a slim margin. IMHOThat is the speculation in Tigerland too. FWIW if the Big12-CG ends up Kansas vs OU, I think the winner stamps their ticket to N.O. OTOH, if Mizzou happened to win out, they'd probably get left out behind the Ducks.

OU jumping into the #2 slot = Karma for the stolen OU game in Eugene? ;)

[Sooner Eclipse]

That is the speculation in Tigerland too. FWIW if the Big12-CG ends up Kansas vs OU, I think the winner stamps their ticket to N.O. OTOH, if Mizzou happened to win out, they'd probably get left out behind the Ducks.

OU jumping into the #2 slot = Karma for the stolen OU game in Eugene? ;)

It would be poetic justice. :D

[okiewaker]

FWIW OU, once again, controls their destiny. Winning out will get them to NC game. IMO

[85sooners]

:cool:

[Rock Hard Corn Frog]

No chance.

I suggest OU considers leaving English out of the lineup against Tech, as that game is starting to look inconsequential. Even if we lose, beating OSU will still get us into the conference championship game. For this year, a conference title is our goal. Next year, national title.

This assumes we beat Baylor. I think we will.

You might want to rethink that Thesaurus Rex. I'd say not only do we have a chance, at this point we stand a good chance of getting to the NC even if Oregon wins out.

Feel free to waive your white flag with pride though...

[josh09]

LSU will lose the SEC championship.

Count on it.

[okiewaker]

LSU will lose the SEC championship.

Count on it.


I hope ur right. Nonetheless, If, and I say if, OU wins out they will be in the NC game. Bank it!