PDA

View Full Version : Three most important stats


Blitzkrieg
10/10/2007, 01:07 PM
http://semoball.com/blogs/sports/entry/14072/

Mizzou, Oklahoma and third down
Posted Wednesday, October 10, 2007, at 12:15 PM
<< Previous (http://semoball.com/blogs/sports/entry/14010/) | Respond (http://semoball.com/blogs/sports/entry/14072/#Respond) | Email link (http://semoball.com/blogs/sports/sendlink/14072/)
At the end of the 2006 college football season, the Sunday Morning Quarterback (http://www.sundaymorningqb.com/story/2007/1/17/112233/573) blog ran a statistical analysis to determine which factors most correlated with winning. In looking across 11 stat categories, number one on the list in the Big 12 turned out to be third-down efficiency.
The team that did best at converting third-down opportunities won the game almost 79% of the time.

Curious about that stat, I decided to see where Mizzou ranked this season.

What do you know (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/sortables?stat=teammisc&sort=3rddownpct&year=2007&group=80) -- the Tigers are number one -- not just in the conference, but in all of college football, converting an impressive 59% of third-down chances.

There are only eight teams in the country converting at a 50% or greater clip. Three of them are in the Big 12. In addition to Mizzou, there's Texas Tech at number two (54.2%) and Texas A&M at number seven (50.5%). Both are future Missouri opponents.

This week's opponent, Oklahoma, is tied for number 17, converting third downs 46.7% of the time.

Number three on the Sunday Morning QB list is total offense and here again Mizzou has the edge over the Sooners. The Tigers are averaging 556.6 yards per game (http://www.big12sports.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2007-2008/confldrs.html), second in the conference only to Texas Tech. Oklahoma is fourth at 482.2.

But other factors favor Oklahoma. Number two on list was yards per pass. Mizzou gains an average of 7.54 yards (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/teamstats?teamId=142) per pass attempt. Oklahoma, while throwing the ball considerably less, averages 9.79 (http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/teamstats?teamId=201).

Those are the only three stat categories that had at least a 70% correlation with winning.

The Massey Ratings (http://masseyratings.com/cf/compsum.htm) have Mizzou at number 5 -- Oklahoma at number 13. But, of course, the Sooners are at home this weekend, an advantage in any football game. Oddsmakers now have Missouri as a 10 ½ point underdog (http://www.madduxsports.com/college-football-lines.php).

So Oklahoma is a heavy favorite at home. No surprise there, given the track record of this series. But keep your eye on third-down chances. Mizzou's high powered offense will be up against an OU defense ranked second in the conference. That conversion rate, along with turnover margin(number four on the Sunday Morning QB list) should go a long way in determining if the Tigers are deserving of the national spotlight.
OUDoc
10/10/2007, 01:10 PM
CRAP!
Dan Thompson
10/10/2007, 01:17 PM
I wish I hadn't read that.
OUMallen
10/10/2007, 01:24 PM
I read elsewhere that the BEST defense Mizzou has faced was 50th. is that right? We could adjust their 3rd down percentage completion to reflect playing a more average defense...carry the 1...root that...graph it, AND- it's not as good! TADA!
soonerinabilene
10/10/2007, 01:25 PM
at least they are not lifting weights. or watching film. otherwise we are f*cked.
colleyvillesooner
10/10/2007, 01:29 PM
yep, and in the Red River Shootout, the winner of two in a row had gone on to win the 3rd since 1950.

That's why you play the game.
Miko
10/10/2007, 01:40 PM
So.........do we still show up? :rolleyes:
NormanPride
10/10/2007, 01:42 PM
Well... they should. I mean, their offense is designed to get 3rd and 2. Two short 4 - 5 yard passes to leave you with 3rd and short, then convert that and do it again. If they didn't have that kind of stat, they wouldn't be very good. The fact that they average less per pass just illustrates that point even more. I mean, they're 8th in first downs while playing a game less than the other top 30 teams.
OKC-SLC
10/10/2007, 01:45 PM
Two tickets for sale immediately.
OUDoc
10/10/2007, 01:46 PM
Two tickets for sale immediately.
Go anyway, just wear Missouri stuff.
swardboy
10/10/2007, 01:56 PM
I'm a man....I'm 40+....I can handle it! [hairGel]


OU will put a major dent in Mizzou stats....book it!!

:pop:Because I can.....
Miko
10/10/2007, 01:59 PM
Actually according to my extensive research, going back to 1902 the team with the greater density of crimson in their uniforms has won 69.2308% of the time.

Conversely, over the same time span, the team with the more feline mascot has only won 25.2747%.

And thirdly, since 1999 the team with the higher percentage of coaches with the last name Stoops has won every single game.

Very interesting.
OKC-SLC
10/10/2007, 02:01 PM
Go anyway, just wear Missouri stuff.
Good call.
Speer
10/10/2007, 02:09 PM
Colorado is 80th in third down conversions and 70th in total offense.

Stats live in a vacuum.
Miko
10/10/2007, 02:10 PM
Also,

the higher ranked team has won every time in the series except for twice:

1961: Unranked Sooners upset 11th ranked mizzou 7-0
1968 11th ranked OU upsets 9th ranked tiggers 28-14

So...100% of the upsets in this series have been won by the team with the most appearances of the letters "K, L, H, or A" in their school name.
Ground_Attack
10/10/2007, 02:14 PM
what if we never get to 3rd down? will we still have a chance then?
TopDawg
10/10/2007, 02:15 PM
Interesting article, Blitz...thanks for posting it. It doesn't seem to me like the article is saying "Look out, Oklahoma!" but maybe it comes across that way to others.

At any rate, third down conversions will surely be a key and it's one of the things that worries me about our defense. As Speer pointed out, Colorado isn't too hot in that category, but just based on my recollection of that game it seems like they won that stat category over us and I think it was big in helping them win. I'm worried that Missouri will be able to pick us apart on 3rd down and slowly move the ball down the field.

But our defense plays pretty good at home, so hopefully that will help. And I like our chances of moving the ball on them too. I think of the 4 stats the guy mentioned, turnovers will play the biggest part.
Miko
10/10/2007, 02:19 PM
Since WWII, when missou faces a one-loss Sooners team, the team with more wheels on thier mascot has won each time.

On those years before the Sooner Schooner became the offical mascot of the University of Oklahoma, OU kicked their butts too.
aero
10/10/2007, 02:24 PM
Colorado is 80th in third down conversions and 70th in total offense.

Stats live in a vacuum.
Yea. And we were 1 for 9 in that game on 3rd down conversions. But definitely and abberition.
jkm, the stolen pifwafwi
10/10/2007, 02:37 PM
would someone explain to me why he only used offensive stats? jeez, by his rankings LSU should lose every game...
Partial Qualifier
10/10/2007, 02:48 PM
The closer we get to this game, the less anxious I am. That 3rd down percentage stat is LOL, quite a stretch there mr. blogger. To be fair I read that as "here's why mizzou might win", but not everyone read it that way.

Texas Tech is 2nd in the nation at 3rd down percentage if that tells you anything. Ball State is 4th. Mizzou is 79th in the nation in total defense . . .
Partial Qualifier
10/10/2007, 02:49 PM
would someone explain to me why he only used offensive stats? jeez, by his rankings LSU should lose every game...

Well he can't mention defensive stats. . . just for starters :O
Larry&Leisa
10/10/2007, 03:01 PM
dooommmeeddddd


oh wait.. or maybe it's because we don't even get to 3rd downs that often...
illinisooner
10/10/2007, 03:13 PM
Our third down conversion defense, statistically, is pretty good, but it seems like teams convert against us just at the right time. McCoy did this in the 2006 RRS, and several of them were 3rd and somewhat long. And of course, Colorado did this, mainly with their rollout pass to the releasing RB, which burned us repeatedly. Somehow Texas did this only once (that I can remember), getting inside the 10 on a pass to Ogbonnaya. Not sure we need to worry about that too much this week, since Mizzou hardly runs any plays with Daniel under center.
TopDawg
10/10/2007, 04:06 PM
would someone explain to me why he only used offensive stats? jeez, by his rankings LSU should lose every game...

Technically he also mentioned turnover margin, so that takes defense into consideration. But by that time, essentially what he's saying is that the most important stats are: total offense, 3rd down conversions and turnovers which isn't much different than saying "the most important stat is final score."