Why LuSUr winning was a good thing

[Socrefbek]

It drops Florida well below the Sooners and gives them two losses.

LuSUr would not have fallen below OU so they would have to lose again anyway.

It would have left Florida and LuSUr above the Sooners.

When LSU does lose a game the Sooners will be only a couple of spots behind and the tiggers will drop below them.


In spite of all that it made me want to puke watching "Taters" Miles mug on the TV reveling in the win. :les:

[TMcGee86]

I totally agree, which is why I was rooting for Florida to lose.

If FLA wins that game, imho we cannot make the MNC game.

But now, with Fla out of the picture, and a USC loss to a bad team at home, we are sitting pretty once again.

And besides, we dont need everyone to lose, we have to play someone in the Suger Bowl, I dont see why it shouldn't be LeSU. I can't think of a team and a coach I would more love to see us beat.

[LittleWingSooner]

LSU won't lose another game in the regular season most likely and now it looks like they won't lose in the SEC Title game because this all but puts Florida out of it with 2 conference losses. This won't be Florida's last loss this year. They are a good team but they are a young team. They will lose 1 or 2 more.

LSU is going to the NC game. I don't like OU's chances with the media darlings of USC and Cal above OU. If Cal loses only to USC and Cal and USC both win out the rest of their games, the best OU can finish is 4th probably. USC has 3 or 4 tough games left that will boost their ratings.

[OUAndy1807]

I was trying to explain this concept to my wife last night when she was wondering why I was rooting for LSU and it was way over her head.

[Scott D]

Not bad Nick, however...the main thing this season has taught us so far is that anyone can have a slip up on any Saturday. I'd concur that LSU stands a very good chance of running the table, but between what Tulane and Florida did someone in the SEC could get the right gameplan together to beat them.

And at this point I wouldn't put USC above having at least two losses this year, unless they end up making a change at QB. Booty has gotten worse as the season has gone on.

[PLaw]

Yep, FLA is HISTORY for '07.

BOOMER
PLaw

[Rogue]

I was trying to explain this concept to my wife last night when she was wondering why I was rooting for LSU and it was way over her head.

Okay, tough guy! ;)

[fadada1]

being a UF grad, i was torn knowing that a UF loss would definitely help us (OU) out. we just need to take care of our business, and things will work out.

[LittleWingSooner]

Florida is going to lose another game and could lose 2 more. They have probably the best QB in the country and a great receiver in Harvin or whatever is name is. But outside of that they have a lot of young guys. Ole Miss gave them everything they wanted a couple weeks ago.

[SoonerFanInAustin]

Well it doesn't matter now, but what everyone is saying above is why we probably needed Fla to win. Most of us figure Fla would lose again, so them staying ahead of us right now would not matter. It would give another top team with 1 loss. Then maybe we would get lucky for LSU to lose in the SEC Championship.

Cal is the team that worries me now. We may have to pull for USC against Cal and that will hurt. Hopefully they stumble somewhere else.

With that being said, we just have to take care of business, beginning this Sat with Mizzu

Great win yesterday, I had to sit in the tu section yesterday, but it sure was fun watching those sad faces leave at the end of the game.....

BOOMER !!!!

[Mudskipper]

In spite of all that it made me want to puke watching "Taters" Miles mug on the TV reveling in the win. :les:

Did you mean to make that OSU/Gumby/Les Miles connection? ;)

[tulsaoilerfan]

Screw :les: and his bunch, i wish they would lose every game.

[yermom]

yeah, i was also thinking Florida winning may not be the best thing

LSU still has to play Auburn, Alabama and Kentucky

should be interesting to watch.

if USC is ranked above us this week, i will not be pleased

[soonersam]

The later they lose this season the harder it will be for them to sneak back into the Sugar Bowl....... I hope they lose in the SEC championship game!!!

[Sooner98]

Everyone's overlooking Ohio State, who will probably be undefeated going into the Michigan game.

[LittleWingSooner]

Everyone's overlooking Ohio State, who will probably be undefeated going into the Michigan game.

They have got their D together but I think their offense loses somewhere.

[BoomerMcSooner]

Well, you guys go on pretending that LSU winning is a good thing....

But there is no way we are getting to the Sugar Bowl over a 1-loss LSU team, so we need them to lose twice...

Nevermind that they would be the worst team to face in New Orleans...

LSU's remaining schedule is much easier than Florida's. And it would have been impossible for both Florida and LSU to both run the table, and for both teams to have stayed ranked above OU (assuming we win out.)

Florida will not win the rest of their games...And even if they had beat LSU, and won the rest of their games - so what? It would have been FLorida playing in New Orleans instead of LSU, and LSU would be behind OU as a 2-loss team.

Now LSU is sitting pretty, with a mulligan in their back pocket. Unless Cal and Ohio State go unbeaten, LSU will probably still be top 2 with 1 loss since they play in the SEC and have the most impressive wins.

Even if LSU loses the SEC championship game, they will still stay ahead of OU - just like we stayed ahead of USC in 2003 after getting destroyed by KSU.

[LittleWingSooner]

Well, you guys go on pretending that LSU winning is a good thing....

But there is no way we are getting to the Sugar Bowl over a 1-loss LSU team, so we need them to lose twice...

Nevermind that they would be the worst team to face in New Orleans...

LSU's remaining schedule is much easier than Florida's. And it would have been impossible for both Florida and LSU to both run the table, and for both teams to have stayed ranked above OU (assuming we win out.)

Florida will not win the rest of their games...And even if they had beat LSU, and won the rest of their games - so what? It would have been FLorida playing in New Orleans instead of LSU, and LSU would be behind OU as a 2-loss team.

Now LSU is sitting pretty, with a mulligan in their back pocket. Unless Cal and Ohio State go unbeaten, LSU will probably still be top 2 with 1 loss since they play in the SEC and have the most impressive wins.

Even if LSU loses the SEC championship game, they will still stay ahead of OU - just like we stayed ahead of USC in 2003 after getting destroyed by KSU.

I agree and I doubt both Cal and Ohio State go undefeated. LSU is almost a lock to get in the NC game.

[GottaHavePride]

McSooner, I think the premise was, as you said, LSU probably stays ahead of us either way. Except that if Florida beats them, then we still have Florida AND LSU in front of us. With LSU winning, we got at least one of them out of the way.

[BoomerMcSooner]

Bottom line - we still need LSU to lose twice...

Hopefully, Kentucky can take them next weekend.

[silverwheels]

LSU could very well lose and it wouldn't surprise me. Saying they're a lock to go undefeated this year after what has happened and after how they've looked is pretty stupid.

[BoomerMcSooner]

Except that if Florida beats them, then we still have Florida AND LSU in front of us. With LSU winning, we got at least one of them out of the way.

To use a chess analogy, this would be like taking a bishop to get a temporary lead, even if it meant sacrificing your queen 3 moves later.

It was always impossible for both Florida and LSU to stay ahead of OU. If Florida beat LSU, and then won all the rest (extremely unlikely), and LSU won the rest of theirs (possible), then they would meet in the SEC title game, and the loser would have 2 losses and be out of the BCS title picture.

There was never any chance that they could both stay ahead of OU in the title hunt, because two losses knocks you out, and one of them was guaranteed to lose 2, no matter who won last night.

[NDN_Soonerfan]

Well I was hoping that Florida would of won last night, because of the fact the I still do not think LSU will be undefeated. I still do not think Ohio St is that impressive, but with OU winning yesterday has put OU back into the MNC picture. USC was the team i was worried about but I think Washington kind of exposed them, but i still would not count USC out. Florida kind of exposed LSU with their Spread offense, OU still needs to take care of their business and everything will play itself out.

[soonergirlNeugene]

Florida had a tougher remaining schedule while LSU plays the rest of their tough games at home (except for Bama). I think Florida would have dropped another while LSU will likely just sail right up to the SEC championship game. Had Florida won, there was a much better chance both would have wound up with 2 losses provided that LSU lost in the SEC title game.

Oh well, it's all moot now though.

[yermom]

Well, you guys go on pretending that LSU winning is a good thing....

But there is no way we are getting to the Sugar Bowl over a 1-loss LSU team, so we need them to lose twice...

Nevermind that they would be the worst team to face in New Orleans...

LSU's remaining schedule is much easier than Florida's. And it would have been impossible for both Florida and LSU to both run the table, and for both teams to have stayed ranked above OU (assuming we win out.)

Florida will not win the rest of their games...And even if they had beat LSU, and won the rest of their games - so what? It would have been FLorida playing in New Orleans instead of LSU, and LSU would be behind OU as a 2-loss team.

Now LSU is sitting pretty, with a mulligan in their back pocket. Unless Cal and Ohio State go unbeaten, LSU will probably still be top 2 with 1 loss since they play in the SEC and have the most impressive wins.

Even if LSU loses the SEC championship game, they will still stay ahead of OU - just like we stayed ahead of USC in 2003 after getting destroyed by KSU.

they basically changed the BCS after we did that so that it couldn't happen again. the humans basically drop you the later you lose, i have a hard time believing LSU can lose a game at this point and not drop below us

[OUmillenium]

It drops Florida well below the Sooners and gives them two losses.

LuSUr would not have fallen below OU so they would have to lose again anyway.

It would have left Florida and LuSUr above the Sooners.

When LSU does lose a game the Sooners will be only a couple of spots behind and the tiggers will drop below them.


In spite of all that it made me want to puke watching "Taters" Miles mug on the TV reveling in the win. :les:

Yes, that was my first thought after the game. The media has a boenur for Florida but now with 2 losses, they can't possibly keep them ranked in the top 10.

LSU still has plenty of chances to lose. They have not looked stellar the last 2 weeks by the way.

[OUmillenium]

I totally agree, which is why I was rooting for Florida to lose.

If FLA wins that game, imho we cannot make the MNC game.

But now, with Fla out of the picture, and a USC loss to a bad team at home, we are sitting pretty once again.

And besides, we dont need everyone to lose, we have to play someone in the Suger Bowl, I dont see why it shouldn't be LeSU. I can't think of a team and a coach I would more love to see us beat.

Amen, brother! We owe those inbreds some payback!

[7titles]

given that there is an SEC championship game I really dont know why anyone would have wanted LSU to win.

[rainiersooner]

I was trying to explain this concept to my wife last night when she was wondering why I was rooting for LSU and it was way over her head.

Be grateful your wife will watch football with you on a Saturday night. :O

[Octavian]

...i have a hard time believing LSU can lose a game at this point and not drop below us



ditto.

[SoonerKnight]

Florida dominated the game last night and gave it away late. LSU is not THE team this year! They can still lose lets see:

8 Sat., Oct 13 @Kentucky 3:30 PM ET possible loss doubt it!
9 Sat., Oct 20 Auburn 8:00 PM ET
11 Sat., Nov 3 @Alabama 5:00 PM ET ](this is going to be a tough game for them!)
12 Sat., Nov 10 Louisiana Tech 8:00 PM ET
13 Sat., Nov 17 @Mississippi 1:00 PM ET
14 Fri., Nov 23 Arkansas 3:30 PM ET (It seems they lose to Arkansas often this will most likely be the shocker!

LSU will lose at least one game. Cal may not! Ohio St. will lose more than one and I see OU vs. Cal in title game!! Provided we handle business!

[critical_phil]

Be grateful your wife will watch football with you on a Saturday night. :O


true story:

i've been on call this weekend. i had to leave last night for an hour. when i got back home, my wife was in the kitchen and the TV was on a commercial. having heard the suc/stanford game was tight, i picked up the remote to change the channel.

mrs. critical yelled at me and said, "hey, i'm watching the lsu/florida game"

we watched the final 2 minutes of the condoms/trees and then watched the lsu/gator game.

and she's got a nice rack.

[bluedogok]

Be grateful your wife will watch football with you on a Saturday night. :O
I made sure I got that sorted out before marriage, my wife used to officiate football games down here, she even worked a Dallas Cowboys scrimmage when they had training camp here in Austin. She was the one who said to go ahead and get NFL Sunday Ticket.


true story:

i've been on call this weekend. i had to leave last night for an hour. when i got back home, my wife was in the kitchen and the TV was on a commercial. having heard the suc/stanford game was tight, i picked up the remote to change the channel.

mrs. critical yelled at me and said, "hey, i'm watching the lsu/florida game"

we watched the final 2 minutes of the condoms/trees and then watched the lsu/gator game.

and she's got a nice rack.
Two TV's, that is the answer.....I had both games on.


...and LSU is winning is almost NEVER a good thing.

[Crucifax Autumn]

Just so we have all this SOS/quality win crap straight...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but the BCS did away with the bonus points for quality wins, but most if not all of the computer rankings include some sort of SOS component in their equation. Then there is the fact that the coaches (or assistants since that's who usually actually votes) have the good sense to factor that in much like Harris poll voters have to at least have SOME consideration for that.

The simple fact of the matter is that LSU is gonna have a tougher SOS for a while, but after the SEC beats on each other a bit that'll be minimaized whereas ours is gonna get better when CU and Mizzou dominate the north the rest of the season and also when Texass wins out and they, A&M, OSU, and Tech all have bowl eligible seasons. We should be doing great by the end of the season ranking-wise and in the top 3 in the BCS...hopefully we get that little bit of help to make it 1 or 2.

[BoomerMcSooner]

they basically changed the BCS after we did that so that it couldn't happen again. the humans basically drop you the later you lose, i have a hard time believing LSU can lose a game at this point and not drop below us

The humans dropped us to 3, and had USC at 1. So they changed it to weight the AP poll differently. Then the AP poll dropped out. So now, it is a different formula again than the modified formula.

The problem is if it comes down to a 3-way deal with OU, LSU and someone else, OU will have a hard time staying above LSU is LSU has just 1 loss. If it is an ugly loss, or they suffer a blowout, we could be OK. But realistically, if they drop a game - say next week vs Kentucky - but then win out, they will still be ahead of us in the final BCS poll.

[yermom]

that's the thing, now the humans have 2/3 of the rankings, and the computers have a LOT less weight. even after the humans dropped us to #3 in 2003, we were still #1 in the BCS

that ain't gonna happen anymore

[SoonerEmpire]

Bottom line - we still need LSU to lose twice...

Why?!

That's one thing you have failed to address. Technically, we don't need LSU to lose ANY games! It would be nice if they did, because I'm not to fond of the idea of having to play them in their own back yard where it's practically a home game for them - especially with their crazy as squirrel-sh*t fans. We don't absolutely HAVE to be #1 when the final BCS poll comes out. #2 goes too, just in case you weren't told!

What p*ss*s me off is that we would already be #2 and on cruise control the rest of the season had we not lost to CU. The bottom line is, we only need enough teams to lose so that we are, at the very least, #2 in the final bcs poll. Of course, us winning out will be kind of important too...


Well, you guys go on pretending that LSU winning is a good thing....

I will, and it was!

[SoonerTony]

The reality is we can win out and because of SoS in the computer polls not be in the top five of the BCS. If you look at the current projections which are at best preliminary we are not even in the top 10 in the BCS formula. Link-http://www.tellshowbcs.com/index.html

I'd say we should concentrate on Mizzu. With the loss to CU we may be out of the MNC no matter what because of the way the BCS currently works. Let's worry about the Big 12 Championship first then we'll just have to see how the BCS unfolds.

[TUSooner]

It drops Florida well below the Sooners and gives them two losses.

LuSUr would not have fallen below OU so they would have to lose again anyway.

It would have left Florida and LuSUr above the Sooners.

When LSU does lose a game the Sooners will be only a couple of spots behind and the tiggers will drop below them.


In spite of all that it made me want to puke watching "Taters" Miles mug on the TV reveling in the win. :les:

I'll defer to you on the BCS speculating and stuff, but agree about the nausea caused by Lester's reveling. He's certainly "proud" of his team, as he said so many times. I hope it proves true that "Pride goeth before a fall." Having said that, they did tough it out pretty good, albeit aided by 2 crucial Gator turnovers and the raucous home crowd. UFla "woulda" won that game anywhere else, IMHO. But LSU is on a roll right now and looking tough to beat.

[BoomerMcSooner]

Why?!

That's one thing you have failed to address. Technically, we don't need LSU to lose ANY games!

Technically, we didn't need Florida to lose any games. For Florida to have won out, LSU would have had to lose twice. So we'd be playing for 2nd behind a 1-loss Florida team, instead of potentially playing for 2nd behind an undefeated LSU team.

But the point is that we should be hoping for as many teams above us to get knocked out as possible.

There are still a bunch of teams besides LSU who could go unbeaten. Teams like Cal, OSU, South Florida, etc.

Hopefully there will be no undefeated teams, and it will be a beauty contest between 1-loss teams. Our odds of getting to #2 go down a bunch if the #1 spot is occupied by an undefeated.

We have to worry about the Pac10, Big10 and South Florida. The Pac10 is likely to produce a 1-loss team - perhaps Cal, USC or Oregon - who will be jockeying for position over us.

The Big10 is likely to produce a 1-loss team like OSU.

So it is very likely to come down to a beauty contest between 1-loss teams.

And we're going to have a real hard time winning this contest vs. a 1-loss team from the SEC.

Now it is possible if LSU were to lose ugly that they'd go way down in the human polls.

But look, OU is not getting to the top of the computer polls. We have two of the worst teams in football on our resume. Margin of victory has been eliminated.

Take a good hard look at the computer polls...Billingsley has us at #18 right now. Sagarin has at #27. Sagarin is a good example of how the BCS rules impact the computer polls. Following 2000, they made the computer polls get rid of victory margins. In Sagarin's old calculation, we are #1. This is what he calls his "predictor" and is the most accurate at predicting future scores. But, the new BCS rules forced him to make a new formula - the elo-chess, in which we are ranked #27. In his averaged ranking, we are #3. But the only one that matters for the bCS is the one that has us at #27.

The fact is, we are not going to fly up the computer poll rankings. We'll go up beating Mizzou. But we're not going to make an assault on the #1 or #2 position in the computer polls, unless nearly everyone has 2 losses.

So, imagine a scenario where we are #2 in the human polls at the end of the year, behind Cal, and ahead of 1-loss LSU, OSU, Oregon, and BC.

While the ranking systems have now put 2/3 of the emphasis on the human polls, It won't be enough to hold on to the #2 spot if we're like 5 on the computers, and the #3 team is like 2nd or 3rd on the computers...

And that's what we're looking at...

The computers are not going to give us any love this year, so being 2nd in the human polls very likely will not be good enough to hold off a #3 team that is rated higher by the computers.

If there is an undefeated team, and multiple 1-loss teams, we are probably out of it, even if we get to #2 in the human polls.

The best thing for us is to have as many teams as possible from the BCS conferences be saddled with 2 or more losses. The more teams from BCS conferences that have <2 losses, the harder it is for us to get into the title game.

There's still a reasonable chance that no SEC team will get through with <2 losses, but that chance goes down a lot with LSU beating Florida.

[BoomerMcSooner]

Keep in mind that the BCS formula was changed so that the #1 team in the polls would be unlikely to fall to #3 because of bad computer rankings.

If we get to #1 in the human polls, we're almost surely in.

But #2 in the human polls is not a safe place for us to be if there are several other 1-loss teams right behind us. Imagine, for example, that Cal goes undefeated, and OU, LSU, Oregon and Ohio State are all 1-loss teams. And the final human polls look like this:

1. Cal
2. OU
3. LSU
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State

In that event, LSU will probably jump us for #2 in the BCS because our advantage on the ballots will be much smaller than their advantage on the computers.

We are looking at a very high likelihood of being #3 in the BCS calculation, despite being #2 in the human polls in the event that there are a handful of 1-loss teams.

[LSUdeek]

Keep in mind that the BCS formula was changed so that the #1 team in the polls would be unlikely to fall to #3 because of bad computer rankings.

If we get to #1 in the human polls, we're almost surely in.

But #2 in the human polls is not a safe place for us to be if there are several other 1-loss teams right behind us. Imagine, for example, that Cal goes undefeated, and OU, LSU, Oregon and Ohio State are all 1-loss teams. And the final human polls look like this:

1. Cal
2. OU
3. LSU
4. Oregon
5. Ohio State

In that event, LSU will probably jump us for #2 in the BCS because our advantage on the ballots will be much smaller than their advantage on the computers.

We are looking at a very high likelihood of being #3 in the BCS calculation, despite being #2 in the human polls in the event that there are a handful of 1-loss teams.

We currently have three victories over top 15 teams. Would you or anyone disagree with such an outcome?

[Blue]

Not worried. LSU will lose two this year.