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View Full Version : Realistic breakdowns: Your opinions/predictions?



goingoneight
10/5/2007, 12:43 AM
Well, what's obvious is we need a stronger showing offensively. Hopefully Colorado didn't steal our mojo (momentum) and we can bounce back. This is a freakish series between the Sooners and the Schlonghorns.

Too many people want to say "hey we have a better defense than you, we have a better quarterback than you... what's your running back got on ours? etc."

Colt McCoy will not be in a deathmatch with Sam Bradford and Allen Patrick will not be putting his dukes up against Jamaal Charles. However, Limas Sweed is a pretty good receiver and I'm not so sold on Reggie Smith at corner yet. I know it's his first full season and he's learning, but it seems most of our big plays we bust on are his coverages deep.

UT WR corps found a way to out-hustle us last year, so that could be a problem as every single one of OUr DB's and their WRs are back for another round.

The LOS (on offense for the good guys):
With OUr size and athleticism, even last week we had some big holes open up and got a good puch out of OUr OL. Sam Bradford had about four full seconds no pressure, untouched in the pocket on his TD pass to Iglesias over the middle. That's a huge positive going into this game. Texas' strength on defense is their DL. They've still got some monsters who were a part of outlasting and stuffing USC late in the 4th of the Rose Bowl. I don't care if they're Hook 'em or not... that's impressive to have on your resume.

The quarterback (for the good guys):
Sam Bradford has shown so far he is not only capable of driving the bus like Paul Thompson did, he is more accurate and is better with his mechanics (play-fakes, footwork). When Stoops said the quarterback was an improved position, we were right to be skeptical, but we now know he was right. No excuse for passes sailing off target or fumbled snaps. No excuses for throwing the ball right into a Hook 'em's hands. Sam better be on his A-game. Which even in last week's loss, he was still very accurate and composed. In fact, he was probably one of only two bright spots in the game last week... him and AP. Did anyone really think after five weeks we'd have a better passing game than USC, LSU, Texas and Floriduh with a n00b? Sam's the man... believe it.

Did I say AP??? I did, didn't I? Running backs:
Fresh legs and an embarassment of riches in the talent department on every snap. If OUr guys can attack the outside and stay away from the Chuck Long "up the gut" stuff effectively, we're sitting pretty. If AP establishes himself at all like he did against CU and Tulsa, :mack: is going to get caught with his pants down when he stacks the box and Kelly is ten yards ahead of his secondary. Look for a surprise game from DeMarco Murray.

Wide receiver corps (good guys):
Could we be anymore excited about these matchups? If we torched a defending National Champion (one on one speed routes) last year, we can definitely ice this secondary. Provided the OL and running game are doing their part (because it is a group effort to make the pro-style offense work), we're going to hit some nice pass plays. Tight ends will re-emerge in this game, look for Gresham out wide again.

LOS (defense for the good guys):
I have to say it... this is probably the slowest pass-rush I've seen under Stoops. What one defense has, the other one seems to lack. We're an extremely solid tackling group (when we're not dog-tired), but the DL could definitely use a fired lit up underneath them getting through that line. It's easy for Paul Smith and Cody Hawkins to hit their receivers when we fart around like we do. Still, we've shown flashes of the head-hunting pass-rush from time to time so far, hopefully it's no longer a work in progress and we can have Colt McCoy running for his life, knowing the feeling well now and fearing another concussion. We've seen it with our own eyes now, folks... if you can get McCoy to throw on the run, he gets rid of it, throws way off target or tosses interceptions. IMHO, the number of turnovers we can expect will have nothing to do with the talent of OUr secondary. We can expect them as soon as we get after McCoy. It helps if the secondary stays on their guys tight.

Secondary:
We have speed and some very fun to watch DBs. Reggie is as stated above, a work in progress at corner, and might be a liability, might not be. Sort of hot-and-cold so far... the Rex Grossman factor. Reggie, when healthy and on his A-game is top-notch. When he's on fire, he's a regular Derrick Strait. When he's frustrated or worn down, look out Chijoke.

I feel like Nic Harris is in for one of those freakish circus interceptions again. He's come so close in the last three weeks to making one of those Sportscenter-caliber eye-popping picks like he had in the BIG 12 CCG last year. If anyone has as insane a vertical as Malcom Kelly, it's this guy. Time for him to haul one in like MK does. Wild prediction: Nic Harris gets a pick-6.

Linebackers:
While not deep, we have looked awesome in the hard-hitting guys like Lewis Baker, and the sure-tacklers like Ryan Reynolds. Lofton is a good cover guy and never gives up on a play. Again, so long as they're not fatigued, OUr lack of depth won't kill us unless God forbid, an injury occurs. here's hoping we have another clean game. Chris Brown and John Williams aside, we're still pretty lucky to be virtually in one piece 5 games into it all. And of course, no one with a heart wants injuries to happen to anyone, red or orange.

Special Teams:
As disappointed as I was in Reggie's muffed punt, I feel bad for the guy. He was just flat out gassed and over-thinking everything he did last week. The picture of him screaming his heart out after the game-winning FG says it all. The guy gives it all he's got. Through his nervousness and fatigue, it is now pretty clear to me he's not ready to leave early, unless he really needs the money. If he's going to learn from anyone better thn Bob Stoops how to be a good DB and Special Teamer, I'd love to know who it will be.

Reggie can take comfort and learn a lot about trust in knowing he has quality guys to help him out with all of OUr talent at DB and all of the guys foaming at the mouth waiting to get in on some punt and kick return action. DeMarco Murray, (hopefully a more level-headed) Juaqin Iglesias and even TGAP add options. If we need to make a catch to seal the game on a punt... let Malcom in. :D

We need to block better, Reggie fair-catches a lot because guys are coming right at him. If we don't block better than we have, we're in danger of another special teams turnover, no matter who is in to return. It is the highest speed impact of the game and much like I stated about the pass rush, this is probably the worst I've seen OUr return blocking in a long time. Hopefully the wrinkles are out after last week's reality check, and we whip Texas arse en route to another BIG 12 crown.

:mack: OUR NEW SEASON STARTS THIS WEEK!!!!111!!!1

Blue
10/5/2007, 01:41 AM
great post. I think you covered it.

Two words: Kelly and Demarco. Get them involved. That was the most frustrating thing for me last week as I'm sure it was obviously for everyone else. Let the playmakers make plays.

Partial Qualifier
10/5/2007, 06:32 AM
The atmosphere will affect Bradford, to what degree I don't know. Colt on the other had has been here before. I hope for 2 things to happen:

1 - we rattle Colt early and often, but don't knock him out of the game.

2 - This OU team comes out ****ed and focused; not full of trepidation on accounta giving the game away last week. I hope they truly believe their chances at an MNC are not lost.

the_ouskull
10/5/2007, 07:58 AM
Realistic? I say OU wins, 103 to -2.

How's that for some realism? If anybody's skipping the Dally trip, I'll be at O'Connell's. Spread it on, indeed!

the_ouskull

GreaterState
10/5/2007, 02:26 PM
Good analysis. I'm not usually a "one key to the game" guy but I think I'll see most all I need to know from how Sooners OL handles Texas DL. If they can make Bradford really comfortable back there, then Texas will be picked apart.

If I were Mack/Akina/MacDuff I'd come in gambling with blitz schemes hoping to hit Bradford from his blind side -- he looked vulnerable there a few times against CU. And bet that against his ability to check off. Better that than a death by a couple dozen receptions.

Landthief 1972
10/5/2007, 02:54 PM
Texas covers the spread, OU wins. This is assuming we 1) don't have more than 2 turnovers and 2)run that crappy soft cover 2 defense. Doesn't matter what the yardage is on the 3rd down, we seem to allow the opponent to get 1 yard more than that every time. Saw it a bit against Miami, saw it against Tulsa, saw it against Colorado. Does the secondary even pay attention to the first down marker in that coverage? There is ALWAYS a receiver standing wide open a yard past the first down marker.

aurorasooner
10/5/2007, 03:11 PM
The atmosphere will affect Bradford, to what degree I don't know. Colt on the other had has been here before.
I think you're right on about this. IMO, We're going to have to run the ball in order to be successful with our passing game, and if we're in that deep one-back set the whole game and getting stuffed, and don't adapt until the 4th quarter, then it could be a long day. The only time that I remember Sam rolling out in the CU he looked good on the move, and I would like to see more of that run, pass option to sort of shake things up if we're getting stuffed in the running game and Sams taking heat in the pocket.
Just checked the weather and it looks likes it's going to be warm with a 40% chance of rain showers in the Dallas vicinity. If it's hot on the Cotton Bowl turf and Texass is controlling the ball in the 1st half, making 1st downs whether they score or not, and wearing down our D, then this one will probably go into the 4th quarter. I doubt that we ever get away from the "just let the defense win it" philosophy, but I really would like to see us "take what the hell we want" tomorrow with the running game so Sam won't be under pressure to win it. After last week, I'm sure the horns will be hell bent on stopping our running game 1st and if we see more of the same with that deep 1 back running set getting stuffed at the LOS and KW is hell bent on getting it going out of that one back set and won't change things up, then it'll be a nail biter going into the 4th depending on if McCoy is healthy and finding the seems in our lazy zone pass D. It'll be interesting to see what we do with MK tomorrow and if it's innovative as well as successful in confusing the Texas D or just some lame patchwork plan that doesn't work. Also, it'll be interesting to see if we're getting yards-after-catch in the 1st half with receivers wide open by scheme or being tackled immediately. I would really like to see us blow them out, but don't expect more that a 10 to 14 point hard fought knock-down drag-out win.

GreaterState
10/5/2007, 03:53 PM
Does the secondary even pay attention to the first down marker in that coverage? There is ALWAYS a receiver standing wide open a yard past the first down marker.

Of course this may not be a problem against Texas, who on 3rd and 7 throws a screen to WR at the line of scrimmage. :mad:

Sooner Among The Pack
10/5/2007, 04:09 PM
IMO, I think we were dominated in the trenches on BOTH sides of the ball last week, particuarly defensively. We seriously need to play better against the run. I dunno how much of it was fatigue, but the gaps Hugh Charles had to run through in the 2nd half were scary big.

Gotta prevent Jammal Charles from getting those kinda gaps to run through tomorrow and we will be just fine.